Unity CEO Predicts AR-VR Headsets Will Be as Common as Game Consoles by 2030

DarthBuzzard · Jun 21, 2021

https://www.theinformation.com/arti...ts-will-be-as-common-as-game-consoles-by-2030

In a TheInformation report, Unity's CEO talks about the market for VR/AR and when he expects it to go mainstream. I think 2030 is a pretty safe bet if we assume individual VR headsets need to hit around 20 million units sold a year by that point. AR is a bit harder to predict because it requires engineering around the laws of physics. I do expect AR products to get off to a faster start than VR did, but it's hard to tell just how fast AR's biggest barriers (optics/transparency/occlusion/FoV/weight/battery) are fixed, though I would expect that if not 2030, it won't be far off.

Unity's business also means that Riccitiello gains insight into new hardware platforms long before the public does, because hardware makers need Unity to run on their products. That includes augmented reality and VR devices from the likes of Apple and Facebook. Riccitiello said he can't discuss what he knows about their plans, but he sounds more optimistic about what's coming from them than he was a few years ago about VR.

"Suffice it to say that what I have seen and see is that you should have a lot of faith in the market, but more in the two- to three-year timeframe than in the two- to three-month time frame," he said.

The discussion of AR and VR led to another Riccitiello prediction: By the end of this decade, use of those devices will be at about the same level as it is for game consoles today. That isn't too shabby, considering around 250 million households worldwide have consoles, but it is far short of the more than 4 billion smartphones in use.

wwm0nkey · Jun 21, 2021

2030? Yeah I can see that

vestan · Jun 21, 2021

No idea about AR but that sorta time frame makes total sense for VR, the Quest 2 is already the most used VR headset (according to Steam) at 30% and that's on the all-in-one form factor which previous headsets lacked, it can only get better from here

whoamiifnotwhoiam · Jun 21, 2021

I don't think AR will break in so big but VR sure is eventually gonna catch up to the more mainstream public. All VR needs is more accessible headsets and bigger games [like the Quest/Quest 2 have been currently outputting/offering.]

Meg Cherry · Jun 21, 2021

Entirely depends on if Apple enters the market, honestly.

Deleted member 2752 · Jun 21, 2021

That's only 8 year for things to chane a lot. I doubt it.

Spoit · Jun 21, 2021

It mostly depends on how cheap they can get them. Or if apple comes out with one. It's the chicken and the egg, you need enough units for people to build stuff for it, but you need software to get people to come

DarthBuzzard · Jun 21, 2021

mnz said:
That's only 8 year for things to chane a lot. I doubt it.

8 years is a long time, especially considering long-term R&D has been kicking for around 5 years now. There are a lot of breakthroughs happening behind the scenes. Some are risky long-term projects, and others are more tangible within the next 2-5 years.

monketron · Jun 21, 2021

He can go in the bin with the other guy who claimed consoles were done last generation due to mobile gaming taking over.

Version 3.0 · Jun 21, 2021

No. That's ridiculous. I enjoy VR - hell, I have 3 headsets - but just no. As long as it involves strapping a thing to your face, it's just not going to be that big.

If the tech is there, someday, somehow, for it to be more like a pair of glasses, then maybe.

flyinj · Jun 21, 2021

AR is going to replace the smartphone.

As well as monitors.

And televisions.

And consoles.

It's going to be fucking huge.

dgrdsv · Jun 21, 2021

Current VR tech will never be mainstream, and AR can be many different things. If it's a "VR+AR" helmet then see VR.

J-Skee · Jun 21, 2021

Mushroomer25 said:
Entirely depends on if Apple enters the market, honestly.

More like when with Apple.

Sei · Jun 21, 2021

By the end of this generation or next generation it'll be prevalent. The more less expensive headsets on the market, more people will try it.

DarthBuzzard · Jun 21, 2021

Version 3.0 said:
No. That's ridiculous. I enjoy VR - hell, I have 3 headsets - but just no. As long as it involves strapping a thing to your face, it's just not going to be that big.

If the tech is there, someday, somehow, for it to be more like a pair of glasses, then maybe.

I mean, this is what Facebook has achieved in their lab.

It's just a rudimentary display system for now, so no battery/compute, but it's a very important step forward.

It's not just about how small it needs to be to satisfy users, but there are other aspects that can shift people's perception. I expect that the vergence accommodation conflict will be solved in this timeframe, which would give VR a optical comfort benefit over viewing a TV/Monitor. That's just one of several convenience points which VR will be able to provide what no 2D display can.

Value is ultimately what makes technology stick. Give the people a certain amount of value and the downside of wearing something will be background noise.

kirby_fox · Jun 21, 2021

It'll never hit 1:1 with consoles I don't think, but I can see it hitting 50% maybe. If we're just talking about gaming, that is.

AR glasses I think will be more common as an item outside of games.

DarthBuzzard · Jun 21, 2021

kirby_fox said:
It'll never hit 1:1 with consoles I don't think, but I can see it hitting 50% maybe. If we're just talking about gaming, that is.

People bought PCs as a general purpose device that happens to be a good gaming platform. If people pick up VR for all sorts of non-gaming usecases, it drives the userbase forward and enables VR games to reach more people, and to bring them into the gaming market.

Deleted member 19533 · Jun 21, 2021

No, it's too soon. You're talking about something that needs to be much smaller, lighter, unteathered with a decent battery, and affordable to the average consumer.

That's a lot of ground to cover in 8.5 years.

TheGhost · Jun 21, 2021

Hell no not happening.
That feels more like a 2050 thing.

headspawn · Jun 21, 2021

I have doubts.

DarthBuzzard · Jun 21, 2021

BlueBomberX said:
No, it's too soon. You're talking about something that needs to be much smaller, lighter, unteathered with a decent battery, and affordable to the average consumer.

That's a lot of ground to cover in 8.5 years.

I would expect that by the time we get to Quest 4, we're at half the size of headsets today, at a similar price range as a Quest 2, with better battery efficiency due to a custom VR/AR operating system that Facebook is making good progress on.

Those are pain points, but don't forget that there will be advancements and new features that drive the value up.

Delusibeta · Jun 21, 2021

Eh, depends on what you mean by 'consoles'. If you mean 'comparable sales to the PS Vita', then I'd argue the Oculus Quest 2 is already close to hitting that mark. If you mean 'comparable sales to the Xbox One' then it'll probably require Apple getting involved, and even then it'll be a bit of a leap for my tastes. If you mean 'comparable to the console market as a whole' then I'll be resolutely in the No camp in that one.

Ferrio · Jun 21, 2021

9 years is a long time tech wise. People thinking it's not a possibility haven't looked to see how much tech changed in 10 years in the recent decades.

thekonamicode · Jun 21, 2021

No fuckin chance.

"Clam Juice CEO says Clam Juice to be as ubiquitous as Cola by 2035"

DarthBuzzard · Jun 21, 2021

Delusibeta said:
Eh, depends on what you mean by 'consoles'. If you mean 'comparable sales to the PS Vita', then I'd argue the Oculus Quest 2 is already close to hitting that mark. If you mean 'comparable sales to the Xbox One' then it'll probably require Apple getting involved, and even then it'll be a bit of a leap for my tastes. If you mean 'comparable to the console market as a whole' then I'll be resolutely in the No camp in that one.

Given SteamVR estimates and Facebook revenue, it's likely that Oculus Quest 2 is going to hit 4+ million units sold in it's first year. To reach Xbox One levels, it would need to hit 7.5 million a year. Even if the Quest line of headsets only sold half a million more each year, it would get there by 2030.

kirby_fox · Jun 21, 2021

DarthBuzzard said:
People bought PCs as a general purpose device that happens to be a good gaming platform. If people pick up VR for all sorts of non-gaming usecases, it drives the userbase forward and enables VR games to reach more people, and to bring them into the gaming market.

What use do you see VR having outside gaming that won't be better done with AR or our current tech? I personally think VR is going to be stuck in a media bubble with gaming at the forefront like it is now.

Skoje · Jun 21, 2021

eventually they'll be right....

DarthBuzzard · Jun 21, 2021

kirby_fox said:
What use do you see VR having outside gaming that won't be better done with AR or our current tech? I personally think VR is going to be stuck in a media bubble with gaming at the forefront like it is now.

For me, at least, in a pandemic? Kind of everything really. I used it for travel, exercise, socializing, and attending events. My life has been mostly normal in the last year.

I plan to use VR as a workstation/media center as the headsets evolve more, so that would be a future usecase that I'm waiting for.

Flandy · Jun 21, 2021

I voted no but don't think it's impossible. Depends how the tech evolves in the next decade

scitek · Jun 21, 2021

I predict that game consoles will be MORE popular than VR-AR headsets tomorrow.

TheGhost · Jun 21, 2021

Flandy said:
I voted no but don't think it's impossible. Depends how the tech evolves in the next decade

It doesn't matter how much the tech evolves if people don't want it

Eddman · Jun 21, 2021

In the US/Japan/Europe? Maybe with the right software. In countries with lower income, doubt it. Tech prices are increasing much quicker than salaries.

TioChuck · Jun 21, 2021

There's something happening behind the scenes and this thing is probably closer than we think, hell we learned during Epic v Apple trial that Tim Sweeney's whole theatrics against Apple is to not give money to anyone when AR hits.

Gentlemen · Jun 21, 2021

Ferrio said:
9 years is a long time tech wise. People thinking it's not a possibility haven't looked to see how much tech changed in 10 years in the recent decades.

Technological marches don't add up to widespread adoption. Folks were convinced smartwatches were the next big thing, too.

kirby_fox · Jun 21, 2021

DarthBuzzard said:
For me, at least, in a pandemic? Kind of everything really. I used it for travel, exercise, socializing, and attending events. My life has been mostly normal in the last year.

I plan to use VR as a workstation/media center as the headsets evolve more, so that would be a future usecase that I'm waiting for.

I'm assuming all those things you did were virtual? And I think that's where VR gets caught up in these things is that I feel it's suitable as a virtual substitute. And I don't see it catching on in these categories because of that.

I don't know how you'd wear one of those things for a workstation. My head and eyes were hurting after like 20 minutes on one. The eyestrain alone would kill me!

trioptimum24601 · Jun 21, 2021

Maybe not console level mainstream by 2030, but certainly mainstream by 2030.

Deleted member 2752 · Jun 21, 2021

DarthBuzzard said:
8 years is a long time, especially considering long-term R&D has been kicking for around 5 years now. There are a lot of breakthroughs happening behind the scenes. Some are risky long-term projects, and others are more tangible within the next 2-5 years.

These have to come to market, be well supported and then adopted. We would really need a mindblowing development soon or that's not enough time.

thekonamicode said:
"Clam Juice CEO says Clam Juice to be as ubiquitous as Cola by 2035"

Plenty Unity on other platforms.

Bashteee · Jun 21, 2021

I'm all in for AR and VR, but I currently can't see it.

FrakEarth · Jun 21, 2021

Mushroomer25 said:
Entirely depends on if Apple enters the market, honestly.

They would need to do so affordably, which isn't something they typically do.. I couldn't see $800+ headsets driving adoption in any meaningful way.
If they somehow made the next iPhone a wearable like Google Glass with games, then maybe, but even then..

edit: I think AR/VR could become much more ubiquitous by the 2030s, I'm just not sure I see Apple having much to do with it

BotFixer · Jun 21, 2021

AR/VR can really blow traditional consoles out of the water when their ready. Imagine just putting on glasses and now you have a big screen right in front of you that you can play cloud streamed games on. Along with an aggressive price point, it can really change media consumption like the smartphone did.

inner-G · Jun 21, 2021

I would have said no until I got a Quest 2.

chandlerbing55 · Jun 21, 2021

100%, the golden dream is a pair of VR sunglasses that you just put on to play. I also have high hopes for AR, if you could actually do what the hololens promised, minecraft in your living room and you can see it from a gods point of view, that would be sick

ShapeDePapa · Jun 21, 2021

I can see it. The first Rift is not even 10 years old and look how far the tech has come.

Chaos Legion · Jun 21, 2021

Apple sold 81 million iPads last year...yup, it'll definitely be as common as game consoles in 9 years.

Orange Piccolo · Jun 21, 2021

8 years? No.

20 years? Possibly.

We'd probably need to make a breakthrough with graphene tech to make it happen.

Tavernade · Jun 21, 2021

I have a hard time imagining the various VR systems will sell around as much as the combined Sony/Microsoft/Nintendo systems. Unless the latter three (or Apple) move into the VR space.

Unless unless VR gets way cheaper and easier to jump right into.

DarthBuzzard · Jun 21, 2021

TheGhost said:
It doesn't matter how much the tech evolves if people don't want it

People don't want any technology until it matures.

You certainly didn't see people wanting PCs, phones, TVs, or consoles until they actually reached a certain technological point - a point that VR has not hit yet.

Gentlemen said:
Technological marches don't add up to widespread adoption. Folks were convinced smartwatches were the next big thing, too.

See above. While you can make the argument that people won't want VR even when it evolves, you can't know that for sure until people reject it in it's maturity.

wafflebrain · Jun 21, 2021

Seems optimistic but who knows, Oculus and other groups have obviously made some big strides with VR/AR R&D over the years, and once we see the fruits of those labors in a competitively priced (or lol Apple prices) product like the Quest which is a lot smaller then sure, maybe they'll take off. I see AR being the much bigger of the two. Once people can have their Instagram and Twitter feeds in front of their faces all day hands free with hand tracking and voice integrated they're never taking those glasses off :P

mael · Jun 21, 2021

Shit, consoles will die that quickly?

Shado · Jun 21, 2021

whoamiifnotwhoiam said:
I don't think AR will break in so big but VR sure is eventually gonna catch up to the more mainstream public. All VR needs is more accessible headsets and bigger games [like the Quest/Quest 2 have been currently outputting/offering.]

I think the opposite. AR is what non-gaming folk alike will use. All the big tech are betting on AR/VR. It will reach bigger acceptance once apple comes out with their devices.

Unity CEO Predicts AR-VR Headsets Will Be as Common as Game Consoles by 2030

Will VR be console-level mainstream by 2030?

Yes

No

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