This story might be the single most difficult political story to follow that I have ever seen. (American here)
I know people are shitting themselves about this all coming back No, but people need to remember this result was expected. This wasn't a vote to find a majority, it was a vote to figure out what could gather enough affirmative votes to find contenders. People will know begin working on the two or three contenders around this, and begin trying to rally and whip for support next week. So the strong near-miss result for a 2nd Ref, for instance, actually pushes us closer to that, not further away.
They are all useless fucks, though.. and ultimately I do think the true end game of this is a general election now. The make-up of the commons can't comfortably break this deadlock, which means the make-up needs to be changed by a GE. I also don't think you can really do a 2nd ref without also doing a GE either shortly before, immediately afterwards or even possibly concurrently.
A lot of Ministers abstained on other options, but voted on that one as it was really the most contentious.
This is the problem though. You can't democratically move the goalposts like this. I strongly advocate for another vote, but I worry about what it will do to the country: if it does return as Remain, people will say that democracy was stolen from them. It's the sort of event that will radicalize people and fuel a further rise in far-right parties and groups, because people with (malicious or misguided) views around Brexit will be driven right having been "betrayed" by the political class. I'd predict a rise in violent protest, in attacks on MPs and Councillors, and so on.
The implications socially for Britain in the event of a 2nd Ref with a remain result honestly frighten me almost as much as No Deal - in some ways more. If you moved the goalposts to stack the deck against leave further the impact would be even worse. Cameron's government made a mistake with the text of its question the first time around, and the country now must deal with that.
An exampole why this is not true: Trump has assigned a lot of judges who will sit there basically until they retire. And he made sure a lot of them are in their 30s and 40s, so they will sit there for decades. This will fuck over especially POC and other minorities for a long long time.
I'm starting to believe that the UK needs a time out of the EU at this point. Leaving the door open to rejoin at some point. As much pain as it would cause - and it will probably cause my country more pain - a terrible Brexit to purge and humble the gobshites who still wax lyrical about the empire and the other arsehole factions that support it. The only real way for that kind of clean sweep to happen is if the country truly goes down the crapper.
Unfortunately it will be the vulnerable to will pay the heaviest price, but that will probably happen anyway, no matter how this turns out.
I'd be happy if they voted to remain in a second ref but I fear the upsurge in UKIP again and it seem like it could be just kicking the racist can down the road.
Maybe if things go to shite then the UK will finially deal with Murdock who pretty much caused this whole thing with a 30 year propaganda plan.
How confident are people that Remain would win a second vote? What would happen if it didn't? I'm in the US so I don't have much of a grasp on the situation, I understand many of the Leave campaign's lies have been exposed at this point. Have a lot of minds actually been changed though? I've been under the impression that at least some of the people who voted Leave did so because of race-based fearmongering, the same "Take our country back" mentality common in Trump's hardcore base here in the States.
Is the hope that moderates have changed their minds after seeing the mess, or that more people overall will vote now that they've seen they need to?
I know people are shitting themselves about this all coming back No, but people need to remember this result was expected. This wasn't a vote to find a majority, it was a vote to figure out what could gather enough affirmative votes to find contenders. People will know begin working on the two or three contenders around this, and begin trying to rally and whip for support next week. So the strong near-miss result for a 2nd Ref, for instance, actually pushes us closer to that, not further away.
They are all useless fucks, though.. and ultimately I do think the true end game of this is a general election now. The make-up of the commons can't comfortably break this deadlock, which means the make-up needs to be changed by a GE. I also don't think you can really do a 2nd ref without also doing a GE either shortly before, immediately afterwards or even possibly concurrently.
Think you're right. A GE to purge everything out is required.
It was Theresa May's monumental mistake of being coerced into a General Election by Fiona Hill & Nick Timothy as a way to kill off dissenters in Parliament and cement their dominance over the political process that brought us to this position.
She really has no-one else to blame but herself.
I'm starting to believe that the UK needs a time out of the EU at this point. Leaving the door open to rejoin at some point. As much pain as it would cause - and it will probably cause my country more pain - a terrible Brexit to purge and humble the gobshites who still wax lyrical about the empire and the other arsehole factions that support it. The only real way for that kind of clean sweep to happen is if the country truly goes down the crapper.
Unfortunately it will be the vulnerable to will pay the heaviest price, but that will probably happen anyway, no matter how this turns out.
I'd be happy if they voted to remain in a second ref but I fear the upsurge in UKIP again and it seem like it could be just kicking the racist can down the road.
Maybe if things go to shite then the UK will finially deal with Murdock who pretty much caused this whole thing with a 30 year propaganda plan.
I think there are five factors in favor of remain winning a second referendum conclusively:
Leave has this in its favor:
- It was a very close victory to begin with anyway; you only needed a million to shift
- It has become conclusively clear that this is a bad idea that will have negative repercussions for people's everyday lives. There are many people who voted Leave who now realize in the event of a hard or no deal Brexit they will lose their jobs. They were taken in by claims to the contrary. On that topic-
- A number of Leave voters were led astray by lies and overblown claims by the Leave campaign and would be likely to switch to Remain
- This is a forgotten demographic now, but in the immediate wake of the ref it was clear some voters appeared to vote Leave in order to give the Cameron Government a black eye - the Govt position was Remain, so people who hated that government for other reasons voted against their wishes as a way of telling them to get fucked. This part of the equation doesn't exist any more.
- Young people overwhelmingly voted to Remain, and we have a huge raft of new 18-21 year olds who are now able to vote who couldn't last time. In a related point, elderly people overwhelmingly voted to leave, and hundreds of thousands of those have died since the Ref, too.
I really think Remain would handily win, maybe by as much as a 10% majority. Which, ultimately, is why the ERG and other anti-Europe groups are desperate to frustrate and prevent any re-run.
- Just as some Leave voters have switched, others have despised the media coverage claiming they were misled and have hardened their opinion (I think there's less of these than those who have switched sides, though
- There may be Remain voters who believe in respecting the original vote and 'getting on with it', and so a number of Remain voters might support Leave on that.
They want an outcome where the public would be responsible for revoking it. They don't want to go against the vote and ruin their trust with the public.Based on the numbers, Custom Union or 2nd Ref seem to be the favorites.
What's interesting is that numbers for Revoke Article 50 do not equal the same amount for 2nd Ref.
Based on the numbers, Custom Union or 2nd Ref seem to be the favorites.
What's interesting is that numbers for Revoke Article 50 do not equal the same amount for 2nd Ref.
Either they get fucked now or they get fucked later, there's not much to do. A no deal will really fuck people, at least they can prevent that.They want an outcome where the public would be responsible for revoking it. They don't want to go against the vote and ruin their trust with the public.
That sounds a little bit more heroic than it needs to be. To be fair the people and the country caused this chaos and fuckery and many still want it.They aren't going to revoke without the public's backing, but they don't want to take it to a second referendum in case leave wins again so..... Idk it's all fucked and chaos reigns in Westminster but the Country keeps getting up and going to work and how the fuck we have avoided a recession this far in is beyond me.
Absolute political shambles in Westminster but the Country has a pulse and keeps going without our political leaders.
Cross-posting from the Brexit OT (come be depressed with us):
Anybody unhappy with the way your MP voted: Write to Them
Tell them what you want and why. Be polite but passionate.
A lot of them are unswayable ideologues, but not all.
State of play.
Anything with Abstentions + Yes = >300 has a chance, some slimmer than others.
Cross-posting from the Brexit OT (come be depressed with us):
Anybody unhappy with the way your MP voted: Write to Them
Tell them what you want and why. Be polite but passionate.
A lot of them are unswayable ideologues, but not all.
State of play.
Anything with Abstentions + Yes = >300 has a chance, some slimmer than others.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ts-may-could-announce-plans-to-quit-live-news
TLDR: by most votes for, out of the total 650MPs in the dis-united kingdom (a number of which will have abstained from some of those votes, hence not adding up).
Second referendum : 268 for, 295 against
Customs union : 264 for, 272 against
Labours plan : 237 for 307 against
Common Market 2.0 : 188 for, 283 against
Revocation of article 50 : 184 for, 293 against
No Deal :160 for, 400 against
Whatever preferential arrangements means 139 for, 422 against
UK joins European economic area 65 for, 377 against
Meanwhile, our top turism researches have come up with this absolute gem:
Fucking Brelcome.
I'm watching BBC news right now and it says that there is a push for May's deal because she has pledged she will resign if it passes.
Is she really that desperate that she would bank on the hatred against her to get what she wants?
Is she really that desperate that she would bank on the hatred against her to get what she wants?
What's honestly left? The ERG have pulled the party apart anyway, the DUP want to square the fucking circle, and the MPs as a whole don't know what they want either.
At this stage, any question that starts with "Is she really..." Should always be answered with "Yes" now. Yes, her desperation to "deliver on the will of the people" knows no bounds. She's about three days away from sacraficing small children to the old gods if she thought it'd get the deal passed.I'm watching BBC news right now and it says that there is a push for May's deal because she has pledged she will resign if it passes.
Is she really that desperate that she would bank on the hatred against her to get what she wants?