This story might be the single most difficult political story to follow that I have ever seen. (American here)
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UK parliament indicative votes reject all 8 tabled brexit plans.
- Thread starter LinkStrikesBack
- Start date
I'm starting to believe that the UK needs a time out of the EU at this point. Leaving the door open to rejoin at some point. As much pain as it would cause - and it will probably cause my country more pain - a terrible Brexit to purge and humble the gobshites who still wax lyrical about the empire and the other arsehole factions that support it. The only real way for that kind of clean sweep to happen is if the country truly goes down the crapper.
Unfortunately it will be the vulnerable to will pay the heaviest price, but that will probably happen anyway, no matter how this turns out.
I'd be happy if they voted to remain in a second ref but I fear the upsurge in UKIP again and it seem like it could be just kicking the racist can down the road.
Maybe if things go to shite then the UK will finially deal with Murdock who pretty much caused this whole thing with a 30 year propaganda plan.
How confident are people that Remain would win a second vote? What would happen if it didn't? I'm in the US so I don't have much of a grasp on the situation, I understand many of the Leave campaign's lies have been exposed at this point. Have a lot of minds actually been changed though? I've been under the impression that at least some of the people who voted Leave did so because of race-based fearmongering, the same "Take our country back" mentality common in Trump's hardcore base here in the States.
Is the hope that moderates have changed their minds after seeing the mess, or that more people overall will vote now that they've seen they need to?
I don't know, I agree with Error. Trump's done a lot of damage and has been a huge embarrassment, but I feel like it's hard to even grasp the toll Brexit will take on Britain's economy if something isn't worked out. I feel like there's only so much judges can do, especially when US' most populous states are always going to fight for LGBT right, marijuana legalization, and other issues judges would set back.
And that fight is the big difference to me. I feel awful for people in Britain who voted Remain. Here whenever Trump says or does something idiotic there's an immediate backlash, and you can somewhat take solace in the fact that he lost he popular vote, has horrible support among most demographics, etc. In Britain no number of like-minded, empathetic countrymen are going to make a difference when the country is thrown into a recession.
Both countries are in enormously fucked-up situations but if I had a choice I'd rather deal with rebuilding America's reputation and undoing things like budget cuts than to face the fall-out if some sort of course-setting decision regarding Brexit isn't made.
Is the hope that moderates have changed their minds after seeing the mess, or that more people overall will vote now that they've seen they need to?
I don't know, I agree with Error. Trump's done a lot of damage and has been a huge embarrassment, but I feel like it's hard to even grasp the toll Brexit will take on Britain's economy if something isn't worked out. I feel like there's only so much judges can do, especially when US' most populous states are always going to fight for LGBT right, marijuana legalization, and other issues judges would set back.
And that fight is the big difference to me. I feel awful for people in Britain who voted Remain. Here whenever Trump says or does something idiotic there's an immediate backlash, and you can somewhat take solace in the fact that he lost he popular vote, has horrible support among most demographics, etc. In Britain no number of like-minded, empathetic countrymen are going to make a difference when the country is thrown into a recession.
Both countries are in enormously fucked-up situations but if I had a choice I'd rather deal with rebuilding America's reputation and undoing things like budget cuts than to face the fall-out if some sort of course-setting decision regarding Brexit isn't made.
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I disagree, Europe needs a reaffirmation that the EU project is still viable - there is so much momentum for the right, that something like this can help it stumble and give people second pause.
If the vote for a second referendum was the one that had the most support out of the eight, would that technically be the closest solution now?
I think there are six factors in favor of remain winning a second referendum conclusively:
- It was a very close victory to begin with anyway; you only needed a million to shift
- It has become conclusively clear that this is a bad idea that will have negative repercussions for people's everyday lives. There are many people who voted Leave who now realize in the event of a hard or no deal Brexit they will lose their jobs. They were taken in by claims to the contrary. On that topic-
- A number of Leave voters were led astray by lies and overblown claims by the Leave campaign and would be likely to switch to Remain
- This is a forgotten demographic now, but in the immediate wake of the ref it was clear some voters appeared to vote Leave in order to give the Cameron Government a black eye - the Govt position was Remain, so people who hated that government for other reasons voted against their wishes as a way of telling them to get fucked. This part of the equation doesn't exist any more.
- Young people overwhelmingly voted to Remain, and we have a huge raft of new 18-21 year olds who are now able to vote who couldn't last time. In a related point, elderly people overwhelmingly voted to leave, and hundreds of thousands of those have died since the Ref, too.
- There was a level of complacency around Remain winning (sort of like the concept that there was no way Trump could ever win), and so I think despite the turn-out being record breaking the first time around it'd be even more so this time (as shown by the high level of political activism these last few months) - and in this area, Remain seems more invigorated.
- Just as some Leave voters have switched, others have despised the media coverage claiming they were misled and have hardened their opinion (I think there's less of these than those who have switched sides, though
- There may be Remain voters who believe in respecting the original vote and 'getting on with it', and so a number of Remain voters might support Leave on that.
Think you're right. A GE to purge everything out is required.
It was Theresa May's monumental mistake of being coerced into a General Election by Fiona Hill & Nick Timothy as a way to kill off dissenters in Parliament and cement their dominance over the political process that brought us to this position.
She really has no-one else to blame but herself.
It'd be unprecedented, but I actually think the smartest solution would be to hold a GE and a 2nd Ref concurrently, and have both parties agree to carry out the result of the ref (make it legally binding, even). So Corbyn and whoever (Johnson? Grieve? Fucking hell) can campaign on issues beyond Brexit with the understanding that they will carry out the wishes of the people if they get a mandate, including dropping the issue entirely if it comes back Remain. Within that, it means they can also campaign for different Brexit options on the trail, so the GE vote will also be a litmus test of their vision of what sort of deal if the vote comes back as Leave.
Part of the challenge with a 2nd Ref is... how do you phrase it? Is it just Leave or Remain again? Is it Leave with No Deal, Remain, Leave with May's Deal? If it's a multiple choice option, do we do multiple choice proportional representation? You'd probably have to, as the Leave Politicians would say that anything else would split their vote between No Deal and various deals, while remain would be gathered into one vote. In this sense tying the whole thing into a GE makes sense, imo.
It might be comforting to think that things might improve if the country is given a clean sweep, but things can go in many directions if a country really experience as much pain as that. Brexitters are not likely to be humbled and blame will be shifted elsewhere by Murdoch & co. It might further the shift to the right in UK and elsewhere in Europe. Things aren't going to really change if the party politics stay the same.
Thanks for the breakdown, I've been somewhat following Brexit but it's hard as an American who has never followed British politics before this. Most stories are either extremely simple or assume a lot of knowledge.
I wonder how much damage the revote would actually have. I understand the worry that initial Leave voters may feel democracy has been "taken away" or whatever, but it seems pretty obvious that if Leave fails a second vote than leaving isn't the peoples' will.
Logic isn't a strong suit among the right-wing populist movements plaguing the earth, but you'd hope most people would see the reason in that. Have any of the politicians who advocated Leave had to go through a public hearing to answer for the lies they spread? The New Yorker recently published an article about Arron Banks that was really interesting, he seems to have zero regrets for funding the Leave campaign and doing dirty work by spreading lies and fear-mongering on social media, but he at least is a private citizen. I can't believe the bullshit like the infamous NHS bus ad that Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson seem to gotten away with scot-free. It seems like their bluff should be called in a very public manner, force them to go on the record as to where the hell the money they promised is.
That was the greatest night of comedy on the BBC since the Only Fools and Horses episode when the chandelier fell down, if I wasn't laughing I'd be crying right now.
There is no way out. We are going to be stuck in Brexit limbo until the EU refuses a extension leaving no Brexit or crashing out as our only options.
What a joke our Parliamentary system has become.
What a joke our Parliamentary system has become.
I think remain would win 53-47. Not sure where that gets us though.
Based on the numbers, Custom Union or 2nd Ref seem to be the favorites.
What's interesting is that numbers for Revoke Article 50 do not equal the same amount for 2nd Ref.
What's interesting is that numbers for Revoke Article 50 do not equal the same amount for 2nd Ref.
They want an outcome where the public would be responsible for revoking it. They don't want to go against the vote and ruin their trust with the public.
One is the people deciding to stay, the other is politicians going against ""the will of the people", no one wants to commit political suicide by going that route if there is another route to the same result.
Either they get fucked now or they get fucked later, there's not much to do. A no deal will really fuck people, at least they can prevent that.
Europe should tell them to get any sort of opinion and choice out, else April 12th it is. No going back. Can only blame those who didn't have a plan.
Btw I suppose that May's opposition to any other plan outside of her means it's really a no deal, no GE, no 2nd ref or anything else. The government will literally go down with the fucking ship.
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They aren't going to revoke without the public's backing, but they don't want to take it to a second referendum in case leave wins again so..... Idk it's all fucked and chaos reigns in Westminster but the Country keeps getting up and going to work and how the fuck we have avoided a recession this far in is beyond me.
Absolute political shambles in Westminster but the Country has a pulse and keeps going without our political leaders.
Absolute political shambles in Westminster but the Country has a pulse and keeps going without our political leaders.
That sounds a little bit more heroic than it needs to be. To be fair the people and the country caused this chaos and fuckery and many still want it.
The country will only deal with the mess in two weeks time when brexit happens. That's when you'll test how it really is.
Cross-posting from the Brexit OT (come be depressed with us):
Anybody unhappy with the way your MP voted: Write to Them
Tell them what you want and why. Be polite but passionate.
A lot of them are unswayable ideologues, but not all.
State of play.
Anything with Abstentions + Yes = >300 has a chance, some slimmer than others.
Anybody unhappy with the way your MP voted: Write to Them
Tell them what you want and why. Be polite but passionate.
A lot of them are unswayable ideologues, but not all.
State of play.
Anything with Abstentions + Yes = >300 has a chance, some slimmer than others.
I have several issues with my MP, that I've put to a letter and said to his face, but respecting the fact he voted for a second referendum and revoking Article 50, as well as other solutions than No Deal.
So, the tories just voted overwhelmingly no on everything except no deal. What a party.
OK, since there is no choice, now it's time to take democracy concept into play. The option that get the most 'for' vote get chosen which mean second referendum. Now with the clear statement that if the vote result is still leaving, then it will be hard brexit.
I'm watching BBC news right now and it says that there is a push for May's deal because she has pledged she will resign if it passes.
Is she really that desperate that she would bank on the hatred against her to get what she wants?
Is she really that desperate that she would bank on the hatred against her to get what she wants?
Meanwhile, our top turism researches have come up with this absolute gem:
Fucking Brelcome.
well done boys, pay the boys a "fino"/"imperial" at the end of the day they deserve it
She's gone no matter what. She was nothing more than a scapegoat from the very beginning, given the job of getting us out of the EU and that's it. If we leave the EU, she'll be asked to step down on the basis that only a quarter of the population of this country even wanted to leave. If we stay in the EU, she'll be asked to step down on the basis of a failure to do as the referendum demanded.
This is exactly why David Cameron stepped down and why nobody else wanted the job - being the prime minister during this mess is guaranteed political suicide and the only reason they're fighting over it now is because the damage is already done and they can blame everything that goes wrong on May.
What's honestly left? The ERG have pulled the party apart anyway, the DUP want to square the fucking circle, and the MPs as a whole don't know what they want either.
At least they know what they don't want. Too bad it's everything.
Brexit DLC
At this stage, any question that starts with "Is she really..." Should always be answered with "Yes" now. Yes, her desperation to "deliver on the will of the people" knows no bounds. She's about three days away from sacraficing small children to the old gods if she thought it'd get the deal passed.
When he calls for a vote he says "Division, clear the lobby". This is to ensure only MP's are present and voting. I believe "unlock" then referres to the doors, as in non-MPs are allowed back through.