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UK General Election 12th December 2019 |OT1| Hindsight is 20/19 (Tory majority confirmed)

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Ando

Ando

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Apr 21, 2018
744
Stuart444 said:
Why is this MRP poll so heavily talked about? I mean, it's being more looked forward to than any previous poll to the point where we have a time for it?
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people think MRP modelling is the most effective way to capture the dynamics of FPTP and yougov's version was the most accurate prediction in 2017 basically

don't think it necessarily follows that it will be right this time though, it's mainly just hype
 
Flammable D

Flammable D

Member
Oct 30, 2017
15,205
So I just said over dinner to my wife I'm going to be so sad when Corbyn goes, and she says "really? I thought you hated him?"

I responded with a shocked face and "what gave you that impression" and she replied "I thought nobody liked him?"

So she's not super politically engaged, beyond Tories are bad and being supportive of efforts against climate change. Doesn't really read the news much, but it's the Guardian when she does, and isn't on social media or anything.

So it turns out she'd read something saying Corbyn was antisemetic, and just taken it on board completely. And as I'm apparently usually the one to tell her why people are cancelled lol, she'd assumed I didn't like him (despite my joining the Labour party the other week haha)

She liked Labour's policies, but had "assumed he was a horrible anti-Semite". I don't say any of this to say she's stupid or anything, she's sharp AF, and has three degrees to my one. It just really hit home and made me realise how much this has taken hold in the public eye, which was depressing.
 

Ravensmash

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Oct 25, 2017
8,797
Been watching a bit of Channel 4 news over the last few days - mainly because it feels like a bit of a different focus than Sky/BBC/ITV (which probably comes from them having a smaller newsteam and more limited broadcast time).

Thought this was quite interesting earlier:


Didn't really think about it much, but I guess that is when a lot of people do consume news - that 8am slot coincides with the start of my commute and usually Today is on. And I'd wager that a lot of others have a radio station playing around that time on their own commutes.
 
Garfield

Garfield

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
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Oct 31, 2018
2,772
Don't get the Corbyn love in on here, but each to their own, if Labour lose there is not a chance he will stay on, well he could but there would be all out war with the MPs who are dead against him
 
Protome

Protome

Member
Oct 27, 2017
15,682
Garfield said:
Don't get the Corbyn love in on here, but each to their own, if Labour lose there is not a chance he will stay on, well he could but there would be all out war with the MPs who are dead against him
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True. I just hope he gets replaced with someone similarly Left wing person rather than a centrist that wrecks the party's chances at the next election.
 

Deleted member 10795

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Oct 27, 2017
6,302
Garfield said:
Don't get the Corbyn love in on here, but each to their own, if Labour lose there is not a chance he will stay on, well he could but there would be all out war with the MPs who are dead against him
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Have never been a huge JC fan but at this particular point of this particular election, it doesn't matter.

The alternative is a fucking horrifying nightmare, and not a single issue I have with Corbyn outweighs what the "Conservatives" are currently doing during any given 24 hours at the minute..
 
Stuart444

Stuart444

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Oct 25, 2017
9,068
Also remember, if you vote Tory, you are voting to hurt the most vulnerable of society.

I'll say this as many times as I need to. Because it's true.
 

Deleted member 8463

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
6,261
Ravensmash said:
Been watching a bit of Channel 4 news over the last few days - mainly because it feels like a bit of a different focus than Sky/BBC/ITV (which probably comes from them having a smaller newsteam and more limited broadcast time).

Thought this was quite interesting earlier:


Didn't really think about it much, but I guess that is when a lot of people do consume news - that 8am slot coincides with the start of my commute and usually Today is on. And I'd wager that a lot of others have a radio station playing around that time on their own commutes.
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C4 news actually has journalism and stories they want to focus on. The other rolling news stations rely heavily on the papers to set their narrative. It's much better as a tv news service I think.
 
ronpontelle

ronpontelle

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Oct 27, 2017
1,645
While Corbyn has baggage, he also comes across as a genuinely caring person.

However, unless my memory's playing tricks, Corbyn was the figurehead of this shift in Labour; he wasn't the instigator.

I don't think this shift back to the left is going anywhere anytime soon. The margins are ultimately pretty small, if someone comes in who can swing it back from the Tories without selling out, then great.

They will still get shit thrown at them, but they may have less that sticks in the minds of the masses.
 
Principate

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,186
ronpontelle said:
While Corbyn has baggage, he also comes across as a genuinely caring person.

However, unless my memory's playing tricks, Corbyn was the figurehead of this shift in Labour; he wasn't the instigator.

I don't think this shift back to the left is going anywhere anytime soon. The margins are ultimately pretty small, if someone comes in who can swing it back from the Tories without selling out, then great.

They will still get shit thrown at them, but they may have less that sticks in the minds of the masses.
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They'll make up something they always do, which is why it's folly to want a new leader anytime soon.
 
JadeGiveTwoRides

JadeGiveTwoRides

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
767
Rumours abound that the YouGov MRP is going to show a majority of around 30, down from 68 a fortnight ago, with many seats too close to call.

In a torrid week for the Tories and an increasing narrative of NHS failings and a general lack of empathy, there is ALL to play for. So much will come down to GOTV operations and young people turning out.
 

Ravensmash

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,797
Git said:
C4 news actually has journalism and stories they want to focus on. The other rolling news stations rely heavily on the papers to set their narrative. It's much better as a tv news service I think.
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I think the others do a fantastic job at times (certainly not saying ALL the time at all) but to me it feels like their content is very much dependent on the here and now - what's happening throughout the day at any given moment/who's available to talk - so possibly it's as you say.

Channel 4 being more limited in broadcast time means they can step away a bit from that circus and look at narrower issues - which is great. I'm pretty sure my grandparents used to have it on when I was growing up, because the music (and Jon Snow) are giving me major nostalgia lol

Definitely going to continue watching where I can.

Re: Labour's direction

If they end up polling at around 30-35% nationally, then diverting from their current path would be silly.

Probably far easier to win round disgruntled voters throughout the next parliamentary term, if they stay consistent and keep on with the same message - rather than some weird shift towards the centre

Edit: I hope turnout is good this election.

I think I'll scream if it ends up with the youth vote being lower than anticipated or something similar.
 
ronpontelle

ronpontelle

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Oct 27, 2017
1,645
Principate said:
They'll make up something they always do, which is why it's folly to want a new leader anytime soon.
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I don't want a new leader, but as I've said before, it's also a bit naiive to believe that Corbyn is the definitely the absolute best and nobody could have attracted more voters.

There's a fair difference between Red Ed and a bacon sarnie, and Hamas/IRA sympathiser, Marxist revolutionary etc etc.

Of course the press will always make it a struggle.
 
Luminish

Luminish

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,508
Denver
Principate said:
They'll make up something they always do, which is why it's folly to want a new leader anytime soon.
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Yeah, the only thing you can maybe fault corbyn for is some of his kinda nationalistic immigration talk, which could have given a small kernel of truth to the very false anti Semitic fantasy.

But at least changing leaders makes them have to start from square one on the smear campaign again.
 
Temascos

Temascos

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Oct 27, 2017
12,519
JadeGiveTwoRides said:
Rumours abound that the YouGov MRP is going to show a majority of around 30, down from 68 a fortnight ago, with many seats too close to call.

In a torrid week for the Tories and an increasing narrative of NHS failings and a general lack of empathy, there is ALL to play for. So much will come down to GOTV operations and young people turning out.
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Oh man, if there is another Hung Parliament that would be crazy. Hope for the best, plan for the worst and all that.
 
Protome

Protome

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Oct 27, 2017
15,682
jCrxrLT.png

Maybe
 
Temascos

Temascos

Member
Oct 27, 2017
12,519
Man, that is freaking narrow! Some seats last time were decided by literally hundreds or less, and that could make all the difference this time round (For all fronts to be fair). As this is a poll for last week the situation could very well be different on Election Day in a lot of small ways, and that will make a difference.

Every. Seat. Counts!
 
theaface

theaface

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Oct 25, 2017
3,149
Tfritz said:
what happens when parliament is hung
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Parliament struts.

serious answer: The largest party is invited to try and form a government (I.e. a working majority) through coalition or what's known as 'confidence and supply' terms with another party or parties (like the Tories did with the DUP last time around). If that does not succeed, the leader of the opposition then has an opportunity to do the same thing. If that fails, you're pretty much into another election *laughter and despair*.
 
HandsomeCharles

HandsomeCharles

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Oct 26, 2017
3,918
Tfritz said:
what happens when parliament is hung
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So, every bill that passes through parliamment needs to have the majority of MPs vote for it. In the case that no single party has a majority of MPs it means that no bill can be "guaranteed" to pass. This is what we call a Hung parliament.

It normally leads to deals or coalitions between the largest party and another of the smaller parties.

The reason why we think this is good is because right now, (pretty much) all of the parties aside from the conservatives want either a second referendum on the EU, or at the very least not the "deal" that the conservatives arranged. If parliament is hung, it means the conservatives can't get enough votes to push through their deal, and we need to take a new approach (Perhaps getting a majority for a referendum or otherwise).
 

pulsemyne

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Oct 30, 2017
2,640
Tfritz said:
what happens when parliament is hung
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See the past few years? That.
Anyway let's suppose it a hung parliament with Tories on most seats. Boris, as current PM, gets the first crack at forming a government. Now he can decide to just say "Fuck it, I'll be a minority government" but that runs a whole range of risks and almost certainly would see him unable to pass a queens speech. So really he needs to do a deal with someone. Last time it was the DUP but they now hate his guts. Everyone else has said that they wouldn't deal with him.
If he cannot form a government then Labour gets the next try and they are much more likely to be able to form a coalition, thanks to the SNP numbers and maybe the lib dems as well. Other minor parties would also join.
If they can form eneough then they can go to the queen and say "This is what we have, can we form a government please?" They then get a chance to pass a queens speech and, if that passes, then the coaltion is the next government.
 
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