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UK General Election 12th December 2019 |OT1| Hindsight is 20/19 (Tory majority confirmed)

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Geoff

Geoff

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Oct 27, 2017
7,115
null said:
but they're also going to soak up leave voters from the Tories. That's unavoidable.
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The Tories can't win Wigan but BXP can. Especially if Labour lose votes to the LDs (probably not that many in Wigan in fairness). It's not about BXP soaking up Tory leave votes, it's the other way around. The Tories should stand down in those seats but they probably don't need to. How many seats will they lose that they hold now? Any specific examples? The South-West they could lose a few if the LDs absolutely hammer it. They look to have picked up a fair few in Wales to make up for it though. And there will be a good few London and metro Labour seats where Labour will shell votes to the LDs and the Tories will hold firm(ish) and come through the middle.
 
Garfield

Garfield

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Oct 31, 2018
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For the fear of being the asshole in the corner, can we really blame the BXP?

we applaud a remain alliance but then lose our head when leave do the same? Seems that is not just cricket... I think it sucks but leave voters would of thought it sucked when remain parties did the same to try to win the election.
 
Zafir

Zafir

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,991
Extremely depressing news about BXP and Tories' teaming up'.

It's been fun guys, but I think we're screwed. :(
 

Streamlined

alt account
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Sep 16, 2019
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Garfield said:
For the fear of being the asshole in the corner, can we really blame the BXP?

we applaud a remain alliance but then lose our head when leave do the same? Seems that is not just cricket... I think it sucks but leave voters would of thought it sucked when remain parties did the same to try to win the election.
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I don't think you've been reading the same reactions I have.
 
electroshockwave

electroshockwave

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Oct 27, 2017
3,483
Principate said:
Labour would have gotten it's ass kicked last election under Owen smith, he would have brought almost nothing to the table. The only way way of really benefiting would have been been ditching Corbyn after that election. Even then that could very well not have helped the situation.
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Sorry, I was being facetious. Not sure how Corbyn is somehow responsible for a Brexit-Tory pact but I imagine it's a knee-jerk response from that poster.
 
Geoff

Geoff

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Oct 27, 2017
7,115
Principate said:
He's weakened that position also. A vote for the BXP is essentially a vote for the Tories now that he's completely capitulated. It'll be difficult to give a single reason why someone in those areas should vote for the BXP over just voting for the tories.
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Yeah OK there is something to that. But I don't think he needs those seats to win? He's got 317, he needs 323ish. He's only going to lose a handful, he'll take a handful at least and probably more = I think we're fucked.
 
Acorn

Acorn

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,972
Scotland
Garfield said:
For the fear of being the asshole in the corner, can we really blame the BXP?

we applaud a remain alliance but then lose our head when leave do the same? Seems that is not just cricket... I think it sucks but leave voters would of thought it sucked when remain parties did the same to try to win the election.
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Farage going mental about this "not being brexit" and then running away with his tail between his legs is pathetic.
 
Madison

Madison

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Oct 27, 2017
8,388
Lima, Peru
coconut milk said:
oh look all the centrists coming out of the woodwork to gloat
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Im not really british but the idea that somehow a candidate that stands for nothing will win against a far right personality is just not true. Didnt y"all have elections in 2015 where a centrist lost Labor 20 seats and allowed Cameron to start this Brexit referendum mess in the first place?
 
Ushojax

Ushojax

Member
Oct 30, 2017
5,927
Garfield said:
For the fear of being the asshole in the corner, can we really blame the BXP?

we applaud a remain alliance but then lose our head when leave do the same? Seems that is not just cricket... I think it sucks but leave voters would of thought it sucked when remain parties did the same to try to win the election.
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The only person to blame is David Cameron. He is the one that opened Pandora's Box.
 
jelly

jelly

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Oct 26, 2017
33,841
Don't we need the permission of the US to launch a nuke and also basically rely completely on them for parts and upkeep of said warheads etc.
 
Plum

Plum

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May 31, 2018
17,266
Ushojax said:
The only person to blame is David Cameron. He is the one that opened Pandora's Box.
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That and the millions of voters who voted for Brexit and the Tories. They're just as much to blame for this shit as anyone else and, if this were a just world, they'd be the ones facing the consequences of their actions instead of the poor, the young, and the foreign.
 
OP
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Uzzy

Uzzy

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Oct 25, 2017
27,022
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Geoff said:
The Tories can't win Wigan but BXP can. Especially if Labour lose votes to the LDs (probably not that many in Wigan in fairness). It's not about BXP soaking up Tory leave votes, it's the other way around. The Tories should stand down in those seats but they probably don't need to. How many seats will they lose that they hold now? Any specific examples? The South-West they could lose a few if the LDs absolutely hammer it. They look to have picked up a fair few in Wales to make up for it though. And there will be a good few London and metro Labour seats where Labour will shell votes to the LDs and the Tories will hold firm(ish) and come through the middle.
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They'll lose in Scotland and lose in the South West. Now with the arrangement, a vote for the Brexit Party can be painted as a vote for the Tories, whereas before they were independent, standing aside from either Labour or the Tories. That'll have an impact in the leave voting North seats.

This is not the instant win for Boris that it's been hyped up as.
 
Ando

Ando

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Apr 21, 2018
744
the big big mistake was not having an election when offered one in september. the leave vote was actually split over what to do and you could unite opposition from all sides round stopping no-deal. corbyn and remain were trying to be way too clever and it blew up in our faces.
 
Bobson Dugnutt

Bobson Dugnutt

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Oct 25, 2017
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I'd be surprised if the lib dems helped anybody without a peoples vote provision in place. would the tories ever offer that? I don't think we're likely to see something like the coalition again, as much as some people dislike them.

My only hope with this arrangement is that there enough betrayed bxp supporters that will vote labour out of spite or just not bother
 
HandsomeCharles

HandsomeCharles

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Oct 26, 2017
3,911
jelly said:
Don't we need the permission of the US to launch a nuke and also basically rely completely on them for parts and upkeep of said warheads etc.
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AFAIK Trident is a US weapon, and we do buy it from them, but I believe we still have control over the missiles.

From wiki:
At the end of the Cold War, the United States Navy installed devices on its submarines to prevent rogue commanders from persuading their crews to launch unauthorised nuclear attacks. These devices prevent an attack until a launch code has been sent by the chiefs of staff on behalf of the President of the United States. The Ministry of Defence chose not to install equivalent devices on Vanguard submarines on the grounds that an aggressor might be able to eliminate the British chain of command before a launch order could be sent.[133] A parliamentary written reply states that the commanding officer of a Royal Navy ballistic submarine receive training in the 'Law Of Armed Conflict' when handling command and control of nuclear weapons.
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Kromeo

Kromeo

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Oct 27, 2017
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Plum said:
That and the millions of voters who voted for Brexit and the Tories. They're just as much to blame for this shit as anyone else and, if this were a just world, they'd be the ones facing the consequences of their actions instead of the poor, the young, and the foreign.
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They should never have been given the opportunity to make that mistake, Cameron and his arrogance put them in that position
 
Geoff

Geoff

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Oct 27, 2017
7,115
Uzzy said:
They'll lose in Scotland and lose in the South West. Now with the arrangement, a vote for the Brexit Party can be painted as a vote for the Tories, whereas before they were independent, standing aside from either Labour or the Tories. That'll have an impact in the leave voting North seats.

This is not the instant win for Boris that it's been hyped up as.
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It's not an instant win but a Tory majority was the most likely outcome before this development and it's now more likely still.

It's not literally hopeless but it was bad and now it's worse.
 
Spaghetti

Spaghetti

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Dec 2, 2017
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Not too worried. This felt motivated by the Conservatives cannibalising the Brexit Party in the polls already.

Makes Farage look weak and hypocritical though, considering he said Boris' deal isn't Brexit.
 
RellikSK

RellikSK

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Nov 1, 2017
2,470
Farage showed of his amazing negotiation skills.
Last week: He wanted the conservatives to stand down in a few seats, in return he would stand down a few.
This week: He stood down some candidates without getting anything in return.
 
Acorn

Acorn

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Oct 25, 2017
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RellikSK said:
Farage showed of his amazing negotiation skills.
Last week: He wanted the conservatives to stand down in a few seats, in return he would stand down a few.
This week: He stood down some candidates without getting anything in return.
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He's utterly failed at everything he's ever tried. Brexit was Cameron fucking up and the Tory right winning it, he's a failure.
 
Kalor

Kalor

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This isn't the end all be all. They can still end up eating away at the Leave vote in the constituencies they are standing, so it's just hoping that Labour don't have enough angry Leave voters in those areas to tip the scales too much.
 

Deleted member 38573

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Madison said:
Im not really british but the idea that somehow a candidate that stands for nothing will win against a far right personality is just not true. Didnt y"all have elections in 2015 where a centrist lost Labor 20 seats and allowed Cameron to start this Brexit referendum mess in the first place?
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I've brought this up only to get shot down

The Labour Right/centre is all but dead. Corbyn will probably resign only for another leftist to take over.

We'll see the same smear campaigns repeat itself, maybe then people will realise it was never about Corbyns personality... This relative new found obsession with individualism coupled with the right wing press will make sure a "socialist" (lol) will never be in power.
 
Bony Manifesto

Bony Manifesto

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Oct 27, 2017
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This is Farage seeing the writing on the wall (that the Conservatives will win, possibly with an overall majority), and looking to pre-emptively position himself as the man who made it happen. Not sure who he's going to fool (even his brain-dead supporters are surely going to question this), but if anyone can come out of this smelling like roses, it's a grifter like Farage.
 
jelly

jelly

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Oct 26, 2017
33,841
RellikSK said:
Farage showed of his amazing negotiation skills.
Last week: He wanted the conservatives to stand down in a few seats, in return he would stand down a few.
This week: He stood down some candidates without getting anything in return.
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I'm sure personally Farage will get something nice in return. Wait and see.
 
Ando

Ando

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Apr 21, 2018
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the depressing thing is that boris - one of the worst people in politics - was basically right in his bluster. he was able to get a new deal that the ERG would support, he was able to unite the right in an election and win a tory majority despite everything they've done, he will be able to deliver brexit.

we have all failed somehow in this
 
Winstano

Winstano

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Oct 28, 2017
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My immediate thought on BXP not contesting Tory seats was "What, and split the vote in the ones they're contesting?"

This doesn't seem as cut and dried as some are making it out to be. If, as suggested above, they decide to pull out of marginal seats then yeah, then I get worried.
 

Deleted member 34788

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Principate said:
Pretty much, seems pretty terminal at this point. Question will be how bad the damage ends up being.
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I have faith still in the work the opposition is doing and the sheer energy they are out putting. But even a hung parly with no clear winner just fucks things up more. Endless dithering for years whilst the country doesn't ever improve. Since 2016 the uk has been stuck in stall mode.

But this announcement kicks into right concrete doubt labour getting a minority gov, which I rated low anyway.

Read some more analysis, from former tory staffers no doubt, which states this isn't a net win for the Tories that its hyped to be, which paints things a little better.

As people always say, expect the worse and prepare accordingly.
 
16bits

16bits

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Apr 26, 2019
2,862
Plum said:
That and the millions of voters who voted for Brexit and the Tories. They're just as much to blame for this shit as anyone else and, if this were a just world, they'd be the ones facing the consequences of their actions instead of the poor, the young, and the foreign.
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ironically lots of Tory voters want to remain, and lots of labour voters want to leave
 
FliX

FliX

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Oct 25, 2017
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limerobot said:
the only way labour would have stood a chance was to ditch corbyn.

they didnt

this is the result
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Every indication points towards Corbyn and the left wing of the party being responsible for the unprecedented youth engagement and energizing thereof.
I think it's too easy to point to Corbyn and say without him everything would be sunshine and roses.
 
Temascos

Temascos

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Oct 27, 2017
12,493
Disappointed but not surprised, it seemed like the Tories were eating the BXP's lunch and now this confirms it. I think the bigger question mark now will be if the Lib Dems have any effect on Tory Remainers.

But yeah, best case will be another Hung Parliament.
 
Geoff

Geoff

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Oct 27, 2017
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Where are the DUP now? Anyone know? Would they still vote down the deal? They could be the difference makers again
 
Stuart444

Stuart444

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Oct 25, 2017
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I'm still trying (hard...) to stay optimistic.

But if BoJo wins. Scottish Independence will only be a matter of time.
 
Rodelero

Rodelero

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Oct 27, 2017
11,502
FliXFantatier said:
Every indication points towards Corbyn and the left wing of the party being responsible for the unprecedented youth engagement and energizing thereof.
I think it's too easy to point to Corbyn and say without him everything would be sunshine and roses.
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I think there is an extent to which people have conflated the shift in 2017 towards the main two parties to Corbyn when in a lot of cases it's just a necessity of the times we're in. Most people believe one or both of the Conservatives and Labour are absolutely appalling and it's very, very hard to vote for Green or Lib Dem in that circumstance.

Most of the shifts we've seen in this election campaign so far are the same phenomenon. Yes Corbyn was able to engage well with unusual demographics but it doesn't really change the fact that he is incredibly unpopular in the main.

Geoff said:
Where are the DUP now? Anyone know? Would they still vote down the deal? They could be the difference makers again
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I haven't heard anything recently but I really don't see a world where they vote for this deal. It crosses so many red lines for them. They are awful people in general but they do stick to their guns.
 
Gareth

Gareth

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Oct 25, 2017
5,433
Norn Iron
If Lib Dems want any hope of stopping Brexit, surely they're going to have to stand aside in Tory/Labour marginals now, whether Labour returns the favour or not.
 
RulkezX

RulkezX

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Oct 27, 2017
1,342
Uzzy said:
I don't buy the negativity. Brexit Party will still be splitting the leave vote in the areas the Tories need to win, areas that haven't voted Tory in generations. The Tories will still be losing every seat in Scotland, and the Lib Dems just got a big propaganda boost in their fight in the SW, as Farage is now aligned with Johnson.
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You're insane if you think the Tories are going to lose every seat in Scotland. They had 750000 votes in 2017. Labour are near done here, the Tories could easily hold their seats if not pick up 1-2 more.
 
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