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Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
You think the PS4 share will decarease more than Xbox worldwide? If anything it should increase with Xbox having a much bigger drop.
I think the reason is that UK is a very strong market for PS4, and at the same time a relatively weak one for Switch. It's not that PS4 is not going to be as strong in other markets: rather, it's that Switch is going to stronger than they are in the UK (and that XB1 is weaker outside of UK).

In the end, it's a rough estimate that will also hinge on how strong Switch version will be in the US. Benji said that it looks like PS4 > XB1 + Switch, but if that's something like 55/35/20, then that will build towards my split. If Europe (outside of UK) can do a 60/30/10 for Switch, then we should arrive at my estimate, maybe somewhat more towards 65/23/12 or so. I can't really predict this to the percentage accurate, but I do think Switch will do a bit better percentage-wise, and will steal single digit percentage share compared to UK. PS4 is still by far the biggest seller, of course.

You might be right that I am pegging the XB1 share too high, though, considering even UK (second strongest market worldwide) did only 18%. Maybe a 65/25/10 makes more sense?
 

MrTired

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,230
I don't think UK is a good representative of Switch splits for third party titles. Mortal Kombat 11 had an incredibly poor split for the Switch in the UK, but in the US it was way better.
Question is the US more representative then the UK when it comes to Switch software sales? Also we never got software splits for MK11.
 
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Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
Question is the US more representative then the US when it comes to Switch software sales? Also we never got software splits for MK11.
We got a split for Switch' launch week for UK, and it was below the PS4 sku despite the Switch sku first launching. We also got a split for Spain, where Switch opening was above XB1 opening and at 1/4 of MK11 - again here Switch was a two weeks late physical launch. You're right, though, that we didn't get any splits for US, but we do have comments from two insiders that they consider Switch version's performance to be good (Benji and Deader).
 

GTVision

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,068
I don't think UK is a good representative of Switch splits for third party titles. Mortal Kombat 11 had an incredibly poor split for the Switch in the UK, but in the US it was way better.
Data from any one country are probably not a good representation of worldwide trends. The differences per game are also pretty big. Just look at the Switch share with CTR and TSR just recentyl, and these are even the same kind of games.
 

Limabean01

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,664
WA, australia
Question is the US more representative then the UK when it comes to Switch software sales? Also we never got software splits for MK11.
The US and UK are far and away Xbox One's best markets, and some of the only ones where it's genuinely competitive. That switch is 2% below Xbox in the uk and likely the same if not better in US should assure that it's higher worldwide imo.

I'd say that it's possible CTR even sold like 5-10% more on switch than xbox in the US tbh, switch is comparatively a lot stronger there.
 
Oct 27, 2017
39,148
But people told me Crash was never good and wouldn't sell?!?
Glad it is doing well. Hopefully Activision never ruins it by adding microtransactions or anything trash.

Also happy to see Days Gone still hanging on. I am rooting for the game and Sony Bend.
 

MrTired

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,230
We got a split for Switch' launch week for UK, and it was below the PS4 sku despite the Switch sku first launching. We also got a split for Spain, where Switch opening was above XB1 opening and at 1/4 of MK11 - again here Switch was a two weeks late physical launch. You're right, though, that we didn't get any splits for US, but we do have comments from two insiders that they consider Switch version's performance to be good (Benji and Deader).
Your right I was referring to US splits for the game. The descriptor it sold good doesn't tell us much. In my opinion the UK sales show the same thing even though Switch's marketshare is nowhere close to the XB1's marketshare there's only a swing of 1% to achieving sales parity. However there version of good could mean something else?
 

Charamiwa

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,056
It's perfectly normal for people in an enthusiast forum to complain, if they want, about a kart racer or a platformer being 30fps (with heavy motion blur to boot). If they start saying that it will impact sales, then you can call them out on it, but I don't think that really happened.

This trend of going to sales threads of successful games to laugh at people that had criticisms is getting annoying. It basically ruined the last NPD thread. Sales and game criticism are two different things.
 

mrfusticle

Member
Oct 30, 2017
1,548
It's perfectly normal for people in an enthusiast forum to complain, if they want, about a kart racer or a platformer being 30fps (with heavy motion blur to boot). If they start saying that it will impact sales, then you can call them out on it, but I don't think that really happened.

This trend of going to sales threads of successful games to laugh at people that had criticisms is getting annoying. It basically ruined the last NPD thread. Sales and game criticism are two different things.

Certainly the number of "Yay Crash suck it haters!" posts is several times bigger than the original number that were critical as far as I can tell (and half of the critics were probably trolling)
 

Herey

Unshakable Resolve
Member
Jan 10, 2019
3,412
UK proving jorts are cool again, we just love that bandicoot.

Hopefully online is fixed when I pick it up later this week.
 

OG_Thrills

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
4,655
The US and UK are far and away Xbox One's best markets, and some of the only ones where it's genuinely competitive.

It used to be a competitive market for XBOX but Sony has by attrition converted the UK to look more like the rest of the EU. Sure, XBOX sold a lot of consoles at launch because the 360 was popular here. During that generation it was a situation where, in broad terms, XBOX's third party support competed with Sony's exclusives. But now that all of the third party support is with PS the situation for XBOX looks increasingly bleak.

AmazonUK is indicative of gaming trends here. In fact, it was the first indication we got that Days Gone could potentially outsell MK11. Despite many era members saying that that's simply not possible.

Right now on Amazon there are 31 PS4 games in the top 100. XBOX has 9.

At retail, you can pick up an XBOX with 6 (often recently launched) games.

3227731_1.jpg


And at least the last two entires into the Forza series making it an 8/eight game bundle for under ÂŁ200.

There are a bunch of other indicators but the UK deals for XBOX are started looking like the EU deals for XBOX some time ago. The pal charts themselves paint a stark picture... Which has led to the pal charts no longer mattering for some but that's a different thread altogether. The 360 enjoyed a ton of support but in my opinion, that support has largely dissipated. Despite the strong launch of XBOX One here.
 

DrDeckard

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,109
UK
LOL I knew the Xbox One SKU would outsell the Switch SKU. You would have thought the kart raceing audience would be on the Switch which MK8D and the 39% share for Sonic Team Racing show but then CTR releases and the UK is like nope j/k. Never change UK :p

I would imagine switch owners just buy mk8d?
 

Alandring

Banned
Feb 2, 2018
1,841
Switzerland
Sounds like strong sales, what with it being 8x over the next sku, and 4x over Sonic Team Racing. Does anyone have numbers to get a range of units sold for this?
Jarod McChicken ?

Why would Switch players buy a 480p/720p 30fps kart game when they can buy a better and more enjoyable 720p/1080p 60fps kart game featuring Mario ?
Unfortunatelly, I think Mario Kart 8 is the worst Mario Kart in local multiplayer. The coin system favors too much the best players and arenas are just too big for only 4 players (I hate playing with bots).

I haven't played Crash Team Racing now, but I really hope it will be more fun in local multiplayer. I haven't found a new local multiplayer game to play with my friends since Mario Tennis Aces (Super Mario Party is too random and Super Smash Bros. Ultimate too hard for newbies).
 
Oct 25, 2017
17,904
It used to be a competitive market for XBOX but Sony has by attrition converted the UK to look more like the rest of the EU. Sure, XBOX sold a lot of consoles at launch because the 360 was popular here. During that generation it was a situation where, in broad terms, XBOX's third party support competed with Sony's exclusives. But now that all of the third party support is with PS the situation for XBOX looks increasingly bleak.

AmazonUK is indicative of gaming trends here. In fact, it was the first indication we got that Days Gone could potentially outsell MK11. Despite many era members saying that that's simply not possible.

Right now on Amazon there are 31 PS4 games in the top 100. XBOX has 9.

At retail, you can pick up an XBOX with 6 (often recently launched) games.

3227731_1.jpg


And at least the last two entires into the Forza series making it an 8/eight game bundle for under ÂŁ200.

There are a bunch of other indicators but the UK deals for XBOX are started looking like the EU deals for XBOX some time ago. The pal charts themselves paint a stark picture... Which has led to the pal charts no longer mattering for some but that's a different thread altogether. The 360 enjoyed a ton of support but in my opinion, that support has largely dissipated. Despite the strong launch of XBOX One here.
The gap in UK is actually one of the smaller gaps worldwide. It doesn't compare to the gaps in places like Spain and Germany, for example. Those places have big gaps.
 

Jade1962

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
4,259
Where is everyone seeing FH4 sales rose? The blurb says every game had a drop in sales this week except for Tom Clancy.
 

FusedAtoms

Member
Jul 21, 2018
3,593
Where is everyone seeing FH4 sales rose? The blurb says every game had a drop in sales this week except for Tom Clancy.
Forza climbed up on the list because other games had a larger drop than it , so it technically moved up the list for this week . It was 4 last week and is 3 now cause days gone dropped to 4
 

HStallion

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
62,262
Just because people notice a difference in frame rate doesn't mean they give a shit enough to factor that into their purchasing decisions. People are buying COD and Mario Kart because those are huge long time IPs that have been around for a decade or longer and millions of people have played. Frame rate is at the bottom of the barrel for the general consumer in terms of things that get them to buy games.
 

Mpl90

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,215

OG_Thrills

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
4,655
The gap in UK is actually one of the smaller gaps worldwide. It doesn't compare to the gaps in places like Spain and Germany, for example. Those places have big gaps.

If we're talking consoles sold, sure. The XBOX community here in the UK was far more forgiving than their US/EU counterparts at the launch of this generation. So XBOX sold a decent amount of consoles at launch but the support is and has been on a downward trend. Remember the old site when the UK/PAl charts were games would split 50/40/10 at retail (on PS4 XBOX and PC respectively) at the start of this gen?

We're now in a situation where if a Game hits 80% on PS4 it wouldn't be a surprise because 70% is closer to the norm for the launch of a new game. The old site still has Bruno's pal charts, if you compare any game (not just COD/FIfa) you'll see the attrition over time.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
If we're talking consoles sold, sure. The XBOX community here in the UK was far more forgiving than their US/EU counterparts at the launch of this generation. So XBOX sold a decent amount of consoles at launch but the support is and has been on a downward trend. Remember the old site when the UK/PAl charts were games would split 50/40/10 at retail (on PS4 XBOX and PC respectively) at the start of this gen?

We're now in a situation where if a Game hits 80% on PS4 it wouldn't be a surprise because 70% is closer to the norm for the launch of a new game. The old site still has Bruno's pal charts, if you compare any game (not just COD/FIfa) you'll see the attrition over time.
80% is only expected for Japanese games for XB1 in UK, Western AAA titles tend to reach a 60/40 split. Some outliers, like RDR2 with 66/34, can be attributed to Sony snatching up the marketing deal I feel. I don't think a single non-Japanese AAA game has come closer to a 70/30 split, with most being about 60/40.
 

Twister

Member
Feb 11, 2019
5,081
TSR is very average game mostly full of rubbish characters that nobody has ever heard of. Crash seems like the better choice.
What are you even talking about? Sonic characters are recognizable to way more people than N. Trance or "Big Norm" (hell, I've played all of the Crash games and I still can't remember who that is)
 

OrdinaryPrime

Self-requested ban
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
11,042
Why would Switch players buy a 480p/720p 30fps kart game when they can buy a better and more enjoyable 720p/1080p 60fps kart game featuring Mario ?

Do you think the majority of consumers bought Mario Kart Deluxe because it runs at a particular resolution and framerate? Also some people are excited to play The Witcher 3 on Switch and that's severely compromised. These technical aspects matter to most of us but not to the majority of Switch consumers imo.

What are you even talking about? Sonic characters are recognizable to way more people than N. Trance or "Big Norm" (hell, I've played all of the Crash games and I still can't remember who that is)

Crash Team Racing was very well thought of and reviewed well originally. Whether the characters are recognizable, Crash hasn't had the up and down peaks and valleys of the Sonic IP.
 

OG_Thrills

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
4,655
80% is only expected for Japanese games for XB1 in UK, Western AAA titles tend to reach a 60/40 split. Some outliers, like RDR2 with 66/34, can be attributed to Sony snatching up the marketing deal I feel. I don't think a single non-Japanese AAA game has come closer to a 70/30 split, with most being about 60/40.

I hate to disagree but this simply isn't true. Check all the new game releases we've had this year and last year and do the math. RDR and COD are now the outliers.
 

9-Volt

Member
Oct 27, 2017
12,881
However, Switch made up 39% of Sonic Team Racing's launch sales, but only 16% of Crash's.

Well I'm not surprised. If that many people bought Sonic for Switch, I would not expect them to get Crash too. Assuming that 39% is actually higher than 16%. Could be that 16% is more people than 39%.
 

Viale

â–˛ Legend â–˛
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,616
Deserved, such a good game. Having a great time with it despite getting my ass handed to me fairly consistently hah.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
I hate to disagree but this simply isn't true. Check all the new game releases we've had this year and last year and do the math. RDR and COD are now the outliers.
Well, let's take a look at the AAA games that released this year:

January:
Ace Combat 7: 76/24
Kingdom hearts 3: 82/18
Resident Evil 2 Remake: 74/26

February:
Far Cry New Dawn: 60/39
Metro Exodus: 57/? (but presumably no less than 38, since PC hardly accounts for 5% of physical sales ever)
Jump Force: 76/24
Anthem: 54/40 (6% on PC, as expected for a Bioware game imo)
Dirt Rally 2.0: 59/? (same as for Metro, so 36% or more most likely)
The LEGO Movie 2: 59/?/? (this one shares 41% between 3 skus: XB1, Switch, PC)

March:
Devil May Cry 5: 80/20
The Division 2: 60/40
Sekiro Shadows Die Twice: 80/20

April:
World War Z: No split given
Mortal Kombat 11: 71/29

June:
Crash Team Racing Nitro-Fueled: 67/16

This is the list of major releases for this year as far I could find. If you remove the games from Japanese developers, then you are left with the following list:

February:
Far Cry New Dawn: 60/39
Metro Exodus: 57/? (but presumably no less than 38, since PC hardly accounts for 5% of physical sales ever)
Anthem: 54/40 (6% on PC, as expected for a Bioware game imo)
Dirt Rally 2.0: 59/? (same as for Metro, so 36% or more most likely)
The LEGO Movie 2: 59/?/? (this one shares 41% between 3 skus: XB1, Switch, PC)

March:
The Division 2: 60/40

April:
World War Z: No split given

June:
Crash Team Racing Nitro-Fueled: 67/16

Only the LEGO game and Crash Team Racing deviate from the 60/40 split in a significant way. And if what ZhugeEX said holds true (namely that digital on XB1 is noticeably larger than on PS4), then that would skew things further towards near-equality. I would need to take some more time to go over all of 2018, since that's a ton more releases to find in the gamesindustry archives.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
Well I'm not surprised. If that many people bought Sonic for Switch, I would not expect them to get Crash too. Assuming that 39% is actually higher than 16%. Could be that 16% is more people than 39%.
That 16% is of 66k (or more), so over 10k. That 39% is of about 17k, so about 7k. So more people bought Crash Team Racing than Sonic Team Racing.
 
Jan 17, 2019
964
Well, let's take a look at the AAA games that released this year:

January:
Ace Combat 7: 76/24
Kingdom hearts 3: 82/18
Resident Evil 2 Remake: 74/26

February:
Far Cry New Dawn: 60/39
Metro Exodus: 57/? (but presumably no less than 38, since PC hardly accounts for 5% of physical sales ever)
Jump Force: 76/24
Anthem: 54/40 (6% on PC, as expected for a Bioware game imo)
Dirt Rally 2.0: 59/? (same as for Metro, so 36% or more most likely)
The LEGO Movie 2: 59/?/? (this one shares 41% between 3 skus: XB1, Switch, PC)

March:
Devil May Cry 5: 80/20
The Division 2: 60/40
Sekiro Shadows Die Twice: 80/20

April:
World War Z: No split given
Mortal Kombat 11: 71/29

June:
Crash Team Racing Nitro-Fueled: 67/16

This is the list of major releases for this year as far I could find. If you remove the games from Japanese developers, then you are left with the following list:

February:
Far Cry New Dawn: 60/39
Metro Exodus: 57/? (but presumably no less than 38, since PC hardly accounts for 5% of physical sales ever)
Anthem: 54/40 (6% on PC, as expected for a Bioware game imo)
Dirt Rally 2.0: 59/? (same as for Metro, so 36% or more most likely)
The LEGO Movie 2: 59/?/? (this one shares 41% between 3 skus: XB1, Switch, PC)

March:
The Division 2: 60/40

April:
World War Z: No split given

June:
Crash Team Racing Nitro-Fueled: 67/16

Only the LEGO game and Crash Team Racing deviate from the 60/40 split in a significant way. And if what ZhugeEX said holds true (namely that digital on XB1 is noticeably larger than on PS4), then that would skew things further towards near-equality. I would need to take some more time to go over all of 2018, since that's a ton more releases to find in the gamesindustry archives.

You should check MK 11, FIFA 19 and NBA 2k 19 split. RD2 isn't outlier

EDIT: see you have MK11.

EDIT: X1 digital share so larger vs PS that it's near equality in the end? What i'm reading here. Didn't know that PS4 users don't purchasing games digitally at all. According to your logic, MK 11 split overall is near equall when you include digital or even for Sekiro
 
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Secretofmateria

User requested ban
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
8,424
Not surprising. The uk loves that bandicoot, and playstation when you consider how strong that brand is and has been there since the 90's
 

Braaier

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
13,237
Glad to see Crash Team Racing selling well. It seems to be a good kart racing game (with exception of 30 fps). Good for those who don't have access to Mario Kart 8.