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Stinkles

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
20,459
if america had ubi then none of this 'reopen the economy' shit would happen. people would have money, people can stay in and be safe, and just wait patiently until a cure comes. we wouldn't have to be locked for 18 months or whatever, probably had opened up the 'ecnomy' much sooner if we had a president and an administration that knew how to do the hard work properly to contain this... but didn't. god damn i can't wait for vote for biden in november so that i don't have to deal with this orange dumbass anymore
If America had universal healthcare then testing and treatment alone would be functioning at more than third world levels. The number of Americans who die because even insured - sometimes especially insured people will be literally bankrupted by easily treatable and preventable conditions is astonishing.

and all that leads to other issues that cost everyone else vast sums of money to address the damage to the economy.

I keep seeing complex matrices of explanations but it's extremely simple:

We monetized health from cradle to grave. We opened up our wellbeing to hucksters and charlatans and parasitical middle men and put no rational limits on what they can charge- and we tied even having healthcare to employers to offset the costs and lubricate the economy with the blood of serfs.
 

Sheepinator

Member
Jul 25, 2018
28,008
In the beginning of April,, Texas has 20,000 hospital beds, 2100 icu beds and 8,700 ventilators. I don't know the numbers now but it won't be significantly different. If the hospitalization numbers don't have downward trajectory anytime soon, Texas hospitals could be overwhelmed in the coming months.
What is the typical available number of beds and icu's? Since many are presumably in use for a myriad number of things.
 

captive

Member
Oct 25, 2017
16,998
Houston
You are absolutely right. Considering that 80% of cases are mild and perhaps around 40% are completely asymptomatic (not to mention the nuances involved with increased testing and the populations that are tested compared to a few weeks ago -- which the OP is glossing over), the more relevant numbers are hospitalizations (which tend to lag about 1 week after becoming symptomatic) and deaths (lag about 2 weeks). It's entirely possible those numbers will go up in a statistically significant manner as well, but at this point, number of cases alone is educational but not particular useful.
the OP is literally about deaths in Texas and your like op just glosses over this stuff.
 

Lathentar

Member
Oct 27, 2017
307
If America had universal healthcare then testing and treatment alone would be functioning at more than third world levels. The number of Americans who die because even insured - sometimes especially insured people will be literally bankrupted by easily treatable and preventable conditions is astonishing.

and all that leads to other issues that cost everyone else vast sums of money to address the damage to the economy.

I keep seeing complex matrices of explanations but it's extremely simple:

We monetized health from cradle to grave. We opened up our wellbeing to hucksters and charlatans and parasitical middle men and put no rational limits on what they can charge- and we tied even having healthcare to employers to offset the costs and lubricate the economy with the blood of serfs.
Universal health care would not have solved the federal government completely dropping the ball on the development and deployment of tests
 

Nola

Member
Oct 29, 2017
8,039
Universal health care would not have solved the federal government completely dropping the ball on the development and deployment of tests
In that one area you are probably correct. I can see some perimeter effects that would probably make coordination a lot stronger, but getting the actual tests would require leaders to make better decisions.

But it is absolutely true that our lack of UHC(specifically a single-payer or British style system) left us uniquely vulnerable in so many ways. From our capitalistic system that makes coordination amongst entities nearly impossible, or the lack of oversight and greed that incentivized hospitals to operate as close to capacity as possible to realize savings and maximize profits. Leaving little room to deal with a shock to their system. With no centralized system that could force hospitals to maintain rainy day funds and resources. To the lack of coverage making people forgo treatment and likely exacerbating the death toll. Or the employer system that is uniquely vulnerable to this sort of economic shock. To the overall health of the population that made many Americans more vulnerable.
 

Charpunk

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,628
I'm worried about Florida. People are everywhere this weekend and everything isn't even fully open yet.
 

rokkerkory

Banned
Jun 14, 2018
14,128
If America had universal healthcare then testing and treatment alone would be functioning at more than third world levels. The number of Americans who die because even insured - sometimes especially insured people will be literally bankrupted by easily treatable and preventable conditions is astonishing.

and all that leads to other issues that cost everyone else vast sums of money to address the damage to the economy.

I keep seeing complex matrices of explanations but it's extremely simple:

We monetized health from cradle to grave. We opened up our wellbeing to hucksters and charlatans and parasitical middle men and put no rational limits on what they can charge- and we tied even having healthcare to employers to offset the costs and lubricate the economy with the blood of serfs.

this was pretty epic
 

zoltek

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,917
the OP is literally about deaths in Texas and your like op just glosses over this stuff.
Thank you for your response. I see mention of "deadliest day so far", noting one day with 8 more deaths than a day a few weeks ago in April. I don't see mention of death trends.

The data presented (while interesting) references predominantly number of cases with the OP's hypothesis that the numbers tested had gone up in the past with decreasing numbers of cases, with the latter now actually increasing, thus indicating that the lessening of restrictions is directly to blame.

Could be true but the populations being tested now are different from those tested initially as criteria for who should get tested are made broader, more testing centers are opening and marketed as free to the public, and different communities are being exposed to said testing. Not to mention one of the testing platforms used previously has recently been shown to be particularly insensitive (i.e. significant numbers of false negatives) so perhaps the numbers were much higher in the past?

My point is that while the OP could be absolutely correct, there is much uncertainty using numbers of cases alone, which also happens to be of less relevance to the severity of this disease and the capacity of the health system to respond to secondary surges. Hospitalization and death rates are significantly more relevant in this regard.

Hopefully this addresses your point? Sorry for any confusion.
 

Vire

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
5,591
Florida here as well, have to go into the office at work tomorrow. Nothing I can do
 

Xiofire

Prophet of Regret
Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,137
As someone in the UK, this is like seeing the future. There has been a loud push to reopen everything here, even though this will be the outcome. I'm being called back to the office tomorrow, full time. Hope I'm alright and don't bring anything back to my family I live with.

This sucks.
 
jsBuyb.jpg


State of Delaware decided to open
boardwalk and beaches. New infection spike is incoming shortly, people are being dumb and selfish. Most people don't give a flying fuck about social distancing nor wearing masks.

Ps. If Death wears the mask then you should too.
 

Stooge

Member
Oct 29, 2017
11,227
Thank you for your response. I see mention of "deadliest day so far", noting one day with 8 more deaths than a day a few weeks ago in April. I don't see mention of death trends.

The data presented (while interesting) references predominantly number of cases with the OP's hypothesis that the numbers tested had gone up in the past with decreasing numbers of cases, with the latter now actually increasing, thus indicating that the lessening of restrictions is directly to blame.

Could be true but the populations being tested now are different from those tested initially as criteria for who should get tested are made broader, more testing centers are opening and marketed as free to the public, and different communities are being exposed to said testing. Not to mention one of the testing platforms used previously has recently been shown to be particularly insensitive (i.e. significant numbers of false negatives) so perhaps the numbers were much higher in the past?

My point is that while the OP could be absolutely correct, there is much uncertainty using numbers of cases alone, which also happens to be of less relevance to the severity of this disease and the capacity of the health system to respond to secondary surges. Hospitalization and death rates are significantly more relevant in this regard.

Hopefully this addresses your point? Sorry for any confusion.

Except we also know there is a causal link between exposure to the virus and spreading it. So an increase in testing that shows an increase in case counts combined with severely reduced social distancing should expect to see an increase in infection rates. Like, the expected result is now being seen in the data. There is no strong reason to distrust a proven causal link between contact and infection

The premise that more testing is the sole cause in a near doubling of infection rates in a week assumes a linear relationship between testing and positive cases (and testing has not doubled in a week) AND requires us to think the virus behaves differently now as opposed to 6 weeks ago.

Nothing has changed except attitudes of being willing to shelter in place.
 

Man God

Member
Oct 25, 2017
38,306
People are social creatures and also unbelievably selfish.

I am so fortunate to have a job that is done entirely by email and phone calls and to live in an area with ready grocery and pharmacy deliveries. I didn't leave the house from February until the end of April and didn't leave the car until just last week, only going to my sister's house who has also been locked up tight for months.
 

Jam

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,051
Screen_Shot_2018-10-25_at_11.02.15_AM.jpg


You're telling me that re-opening the state has led to an increase in Covid spreading???

Worst part is the re-open crowd won't be eating crow or surprised, they aren't bothered about the virus, they want MUH LIBERTY and do what their Russian bot overlords tell them to do.

Less Life. More Liberty. And the pursuit of following instructions by Russia.
 

pikachief

Prophet of Truth
Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,526
I've been working near a hiking trail in southern california and last week and the amount of cars ive seen parked along the trail and people walking is ridiculous. Definitely more people than there normally was before lockdown happened. I really cant see people social distancing on that trail with that many people.

also many people without masks and all the people on the sidewalk is causing people to walk into the street to social distancing and I keep having to stop or slowdown for people suddenly walking in the streets.
 

Pwnz

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,279
Places
at 25% capacity. It's a good thing theres a restriction because otherwise gyms would be at 100%. People are desperate to get back to their workout routines. Don't know if youve noticed how baron aisles of home gym equipment are at big box stores. I cant even find free weights and ive tried several stores.

That doesn't really matter. So many droplets and people wiping faces.
 

Lathentar

Member
Oct 27, 2017
307
In that one area you are probably correct. I can see some perimeter effects that would probably make coordination a lot stronger, but getting the actual tests would require leaders to make better decisions.

But it is absolutely true that our lack of UHC(specifically a single-payer or British style system) left us uniquely vulnerable in so many ways. From our capitalistic system that makes coordination amongst entities nearly impossible, or the lack of oversight and greed that incentivized hospitals to operate as close to capacity as possible to realize savings and maximize profits. Leaving little room to deal with a shock to their system. With no centralized system that could force hospitals to maintain rainy day funds and resources. To the lack of coverage making people forgo treatment and likely exacerbating the death toll. Or the employer system that is uniquely vulnerable to this sort of economic shock. To the overall health of the population that made many Americans more vulnerable.
Yeah I don't disagree with a lot of what you said there. However the failure of the United States response has far more to do with its current leadership than lack UHC. If this were to happen four years ago the response likely would have been significantly stronger.
 

greepoman

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,961
Of all the things to go out and do, getting your teeth cleaned cracked me up. Hopefully you didn't get or spread anything.
I was worried when I had to go to get a painful cracked filling fixed and I was impressed with our dentist. Temperature check, wait in car, the docs had face mask and face shields, only was in contact with dentist and assistant.
 

Deleted member 49482

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 8, 2018
3,302
People are social creatures and also unbelievably selfish.
Well, not only that, but our politicians have turned social mitigation of public health risks into a partisan political stance. This should have been an event where we united as a nation, but certain politicians and media personalities have used it to stoke further division. It's really frustrating.
 

xxracerxx

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
31,222
Well, the area I live in, has had relitively low confirmed cases, with a drive through testing center within a few miles. With the governer force memeing reopening, I figured that it is the best time in consideration with the future outlook I see.
How is it the best time? I am not getting your reasoning here. Like...whats your future outlook all about?
 

SpaceCrystal

Banned
Apr 1, 2019
7,714
People can't grow their hair or cut their own hair? It's not that hard. Who are they all trying to look good for? Don't you know covid beards,covid hairstyles, and covid no make up are what's hot now?

Pretty much my stance. If you are a guy, you could just shave your head. It's not hard. You got scissors, you got a razor, you're set to go. Will be easier if you got an electric razor, but other than that, it's not hard. There are videos on YouTube that teach you many things, one being how to self-cut your hair. All you need is time, which I'm sure a lot of people have. The guys that say, "How DARE the Governor says we have to stay in quarantine! I want my hair cut, DAMMIT!!!", are just lazy fucks that want to complain.

Or at least invite a personal barber to your house or in your apartment, like I usually do. Live in Hampton, VA.
 

Ziltoidia 9

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,141
How is it the best time? I am not getting your reasoning here. Like...whats your future outlook all about?

It has probably been me being broken from the past few months, I think society finally broke me and the push by government in Texas causing me to fear it will only get worse because they decided to not try and snuff out COVID. The past 6 weeks and the economic disaster is basically rendered moot now because they decided to force it open by making it a FREEDOM thing.

If it make it any better, I do not plan on going into restraunts, bars, or any other things that are just for the "fun" of it. I basically just go to work and home. I have masks that I where, I am constantly cleaning my surfaces in both places, and every time I leave my area and come back the first thing I do is use hand sanitizer. If I have to go to the store, I come back and take a shower. If I get a package delivered, I wipe down the item inside then throw away the box and wash my hands. I never let the package itself touch my arms or clothes.
 

zoltek

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,917
Except we also know there is a causal link between exposure to the virus and spreading it. So an increase in testing that shows an increase in case counts combined with severely reduced social distancing should expect to see an increase in infection rates. Like, the expected result is now being seen in the data. There is no strong reason to distrust a proven causal link between contact and infection

The premise that more testing is the sole cause in a near doubling of infection rates in a week assumes a linear relationship between testing and positive cases (and testing has not doubled in a week) AND requires us to think the virus behaves differently now as opposed to 6 weeks ago.

Nothing has changed except attitudes of being willing to shelter in place.

You make great points. It's not that the virus is behaving differently now, but that the testing strategy, or rather, the populations that are now being tested as opposed to 6 weeks ago, has shifted. Specifically two things have changed. As more test kits finally become available and the physiology of the virus is more understood, the criteria for who can get tested has broadened. At the same time, specific populations which were either ignored or who avoided testing before are now being targeted. A sampling bias if you will. I'm not saying that this explains everything, or even the majority of the cases, but it's folly to discount the notion and pointing to case numbers alone may not necessarily reflect what the OP (and others) are positing.

EDIT #1: Case in point:

 
Oct 28, 2018
573
cL1uUZf.png


There hasn't been a spike in deaths. There have been peaks and valleys since mid-April, but that's it. You can argue that in the future deaths will actually start spiking, but you'd be expecting hospitalizations to also increase if that were the case when in fact they've actually been decreasing in Texas over the past 2 or so weeks.

abc13.com

Houston's top medical expert says more coronavirus cases doesn't mean it's getting worse

"I think that because of the lag in reporting, what we're looking at today, may not be reflecting what we think it is," Dr. David Persse explained.

It's certainly possible that hospitalizations will actually start increasing as more and more of the state opens, but as of right now that's simply not the case.
 
OP
OP

Deleted member 12790

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
24,537
cL1uUZf.png


There hasn't been a spike in deaths. There have been peaks and valleys since mid-April, but that's it. You can argue that in the future deaths will actually start spiking, but you'd be expecting hospitalizations to also increase if that were the case when in fact they've actually been decreasing in Texas over the past 2 or so weeks.

abc13.com

Houston's top medical expert says more coronavirus cases doesn't mean it's getting worse

"I think that because of the lag in reporting, what we're looking at today, may not be reflecting what we think it is," Dr. David Persse explained.

It's certainly possible that hospitalizations will actually start increasing as more and more of the state opens, but as of right now that's simply not the case.

Yeah, there have only been some random peaks and valleys since mid april, without rhyme or reason.

VF4bqmt.png


If only there was something that correlated to the period in blue, and something that correlated to the period in red, which could explain this completely random change in trend.

And, BTW, did you know that most of the newly reported cases have come from meat processing plants, which obviously can't be counted as statistics, because it's not fair. Those places are hit abnormally hard because meat processing plants require lots of close, repeated interpersonal contact among employees regularly, which says nothing about what reopening the state would do.

Good thing there haven't been any spikes, only "peaks." A 180 degree change in trend line, who in their right mind would call that a "spike"? Let's get pedantic!
 
Oct 28, 2018
573
Yeah, there have only been some random peaks and valleys since mid april, without rhyme or reason.

VF4bqmt.png


If only there was something that correlated to the period in blue, and something that correlated to the period in red, which could explain this completely random change in trend.

And, BTW, did you know that most of the newly reported cases have come from meat processing plants, which obviously can't be counted as statistics, because it's not fair. Those places are hit abnormally hard because meat processing plants require lots of close, repeated interpersonal contact among employees regularly, which says nothing about what reopening the state would do.

Good thing there haven't been any spikes, only "peaks." A 180 degree change in trend line, who in their right mind would call that a "spike"? Let's get pedantic!

You do understand that deaths are a lagging indicator right? People don't start going outside and suddenly die as soon as they step out the door. What the chart shows is a mostly steady death rate over the past month with peaks and troughs along the way. It's been clear throughout this thread that you have no idea how the data actually manifests itself in this type of situation and it's really concerning because it continues to perpetuate misinformation.

You also continue to ignore hospitalization rates which predict near-future death rates. The hospitalization rate has actually gone down over the past 2 weeks, meaning we won't be seeing an actual spike in death rates anytime soon. That's not to say that further reopening won't result in spikes in deaths, but the initial stages of Texas' reopening has not done so, and the people that are trying to pretend this is the case are spreading misinformation.
 
OP
OP

Deleted member 12790

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
24,537
You do understand that deaths are a lagging indicator right? People don't start going outside and suddenly die as soon as they step out the door.

You do realize that some actually do, right? As in, the virus DOESN'T only kill people after 2 weeks? There are countless reports of people being contracted with the virus and then being dead 2 days later? Mapping that would look like an exponential ramp up, which oh wow look at that. As opposed to a solid wall climbing straight up, which isn't what happened, because that's not how the virus works like you think. And, because this will blow your mind: you don't have to be hospitalized to die.

t's been clear throughout this thread that you have no idea how the data actually manifests itself in this type of situation and it's really concerning because it continues to perpetuate misinformation.

this is laughable coming from your last few posts.

"there haven't been any spikes" said pointing to a graph with two obviously huge spikes correlating to 2-week periods after milestone dates.
 
Last edited:

ABIC

Banned
Nov 19, 2017
1,170
There hasn't been a spike in deaths. There have been peaks and valleys since mid-April, but that's it. You can argue that in the future deaths will actually start spiking, but you'd be expecting hospitalizations to also increase if that were the case when in fact they've actually been decreasing in Texas over the past 2 or so weeks.

abc13.com

Houston's top medical expert says more coronavirus cases doesn't mean it's getting worse

"I think that because of the lag in reporting, what we're looking at today, may not be reflecting what we think it is," Dr. David Persse explained.

It's certainly possible that hospitalizations will actually start increasing as more and more of the state opens, but as of right now that's simply not the case.

I mean, I'm not sure what we're arguing about here.

The virus and how it impacts cases, hospitalizations and deaths is not some new thing.

Are you arguing that the reopening is NOT going to lead to an increase in hospitalizations/deaths?

Don't back this argument down into false corners just to win on some qualifying condition. It's very stupid and no one cares about your internet points.

This is really like how America looked at the virus in China and Europe before it touched down in the USA all over again. It's like people can't bring themselves to believe that the INSANE-levels of quarantine and cleansing the Chinese did, flying tens of thousands of doctors to Wuhan, physically enforcing quarantine by welding the infected in their homes.. were all done just for show.

Like somehow, they believed the virus wouldn't come to the USA, or that it wouldn't have the same behavior in the USA when it reached because... what...? It's the greatest country on Earth?

And then when it impacted, it's like HOLY WE'RE CAUGHT OFF GUARD with the other aisle screaming how this is all fake.

It's like all that panic in China and Italy were just for show. And they have to panic because they're third world countries or something; that's not us.

Let's not play around with dumb qualifiers and shit. 30 million people in Texas, 18 million in Dallas/Austin/San Ant/Houston combined. 2,000 deaths so far, and if we go with NYC rates and only apply them to the metro population we're looking at 40-50k deaths. It would exceed that if we don't lockdown again. Upper bound, 200-300k deaths.

Don't back this issue into a dumb argument
 

godofcookery

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
949
jsBuyb.jpg


State of Delaware decided to open
boardwalk and beaches. New infection spike is incoming shortly, people are being dumb and selfish. Most people don't give a flying fuck about social distancing nor wearing masks.

Ps. If Death wears the mask then you should too.


My wife and i went around some smaller stores the other day. We were shocked to see many employees not wearing masks, and acting as if everything is fine. Some of workers didn't bother to distance either. it was a strange feeling...
 
Oct 28, 2018
573
You do realize that some actually do, right? As in, the virus DOESN'T only kill people after 2 weeks? There are countless reports of people being contracted with the virus and then being dead 2 days later? Mapping that would look like an exponential ramp up, which oh wow look at that. As opposed to a solid wall climbing straight up, which isn't what happened, because that's not how the virus works like you think. And, because this will blow your mind: you don't have to be hospitalized to die.

The average time until death from the onset of symptoms is ~18 days. Given a normal distribution, the chance of someone dying within 2 days is nearly statistically null, especially when we're dealing with daily death rates of on average 30 or so. It can happen, but the chances are so minuscule as to be statistically insignificant. To believe that the increase you pointed out is because people started going outside and instantly dying within a couple of days is completely ridiculous, there is absolutely no evidence to support that.

this is laughable coming from your last few posts.

"there haven't been any spikes" said pointing to a graph with two obviously huge spikes correlating to 2-week periods after milestone dates.

A spike is generally associated with an abnormal increase on a graph. What the rest of the graph demonstrates is that there are natural peaks and troughs in this data set, it's really not that complicated. What matters is the trendline, which were it mapped onto the graph would show a mostly flat slope from mid-April onward. I could use the NYTimes data that they publish on github to code up a quick graph/trendline myself to demonstrate this, but I don't know if it's worth the time.
 
Oct 28, 2018
573
I mean, I'm not sure what we're arguing about here.

The virus and how it impacts cases, hospitalizations and deaths is not some new thing.

Are you arguing that the reopening is NOT going to lead to an increase in hospitalizations/deaths?

Don't back this argument down into false corners just to win on some qualifying condition. It's very stupid and no one cares about your internet points.

This is really like how America looked at the virus in China and Europe before it touched down in the USA all over again. It's like people can't bring themselves to believe that the INSANE-levels of quarantine and cleansing the Chinese did, flying tens of thousands of doctors to Wuhan, physically enforcing quarantine by welding the infected in their homes.. were all done just for show.

Like somehow, they believed the virus wouldn't come to the USA, or that it wouldn't have the same behavior in the USA when it reached because... what...? It's the greatest country on Earth?

And then when it impacted, it's like HOLY WE'RE CAUGHT OFF GUARD with the other aisle screaming how this is all fake.

It's like all that panic in China and Italy were just for show. And they have to panic because they're third world countries or something; that's not us.

Let's not play around with dumb qualifiers and shit. 30 million people in Texas, 18 million in Dallas/Austin/San Ant/Houston combined. 2,000 deaths so far, and if we go with NYC rates and only apply them to the metro population we're looking at 40-50k deaths. It would exceed that if we don't lockdown again. Upper bound, 200-300k deaths.

Don't back this issue into a dumb argument

My argument is quite simple: as of right now, there's no reason to believe that Texas' initial reopening steps has led to a large increase in deaths as many predicted. This matters because as communities throughout the world inevitably start to reopen, we need to determine what is and isn't worth the risk. The virus isn't going away anytime soon, so we have to figure out how to cope with it in a reasonable way.

For instance, there were people in a separate thread, OP among them, who were arguing that people shouldn't even be thinking about going to a public park. Being able to analyze what type of reopenings are and aren't hugely risky is paramount going forward.
 

Megawarrior

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,355
Close the borders to Texas and di
jsBuyb.jpg


State of Delaware decided to open
boardwalk and beaches. New infection spike is incoming shortly, people are being dumb and selfish. Most people don't give a flying fuck about social distancing nor wearing masks.

Ps. If Death wears the mask then you should too.
If I saw someone walking about dressed like that I would def stay my ass in the house for another 6 months