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Feb 9, 2018
2,620
I work in Georgia at a party supply store. On April 30, Georgia governor Brian "I didn't know asymptomatic people could transmit coronavirus" Kemp ended the state's shelter-at-home ordinance. While the number of cases per week had been declining, this week has seen an increase in cases (albeit a small one that could be due to statistical noise, though it still means the number of new cases has ceased declining), and I fear that is a portent of a potential second spike in cases.

As of this past weekend, my employer has ended our nearly two-month furlough, so I had to return to work this past Tuesday. And it's been busy. So many people leaving their houses, often in large groups, just to buy balloons and decorations. While I'm only a part-timer and we are provided with masks (which I keep on whenever there's customers around), cleaning supplies (which I use to sanitize everything on a near-constant basis), hand sanitizer (which I use after every transaction), and plastic shields at the register, I'm still worried. I have muscular dystrophy, and as a result I am possibly an at-risk person. On my last shift, I came into close proximity with well over 100 people based on my register's transaction counter, and many of them were not wearing masks. I've tried to avoid going into public as much as possible, leaving only to go get groceries when necessary, and even then giving people a wide berth and trying to get the hell out of Dodge as quickly as possible. But now I don't have a choice but to deal with the general public outside of procuring necessities. I have to be exposed for the sake of selling party supplies. Fucking party supplies! Just to get a paycheck. I feel bad for all the essential workers out there in the grocery stores putting their lives on the line for the past two months, and now I join them as governments are reopening everything before it's safe to do so.

Honestly, we probably should have kept things under quarantine for at least another two months.
 
Last edited:

Zetta

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
7,630
Now its honestly the best time to stay indoors. It's amazing just how many people are out and about in Manhattan with no mask while I came home from work yesterday.
 

Sheepinator

Member
Jul 25, 2018
27,923
That's well above the previous peak. Who could have predicted that, other than anybody who isn't a Republican in office or a Fox News presenter?
 

kickz

Member
Nov 3, 2017
11,395
It's be great if people stopped saying this.

The lock down was supposed to do the folloaing:
Slow the spread of the virus
Flatten the curve and prevent hospitals from being over whelmed
Allow the government time to develop a plan for testing, both antibody and otherwise.
Allow the government time to develop contact tracing plan.
And allow time to manufacture ppe

Pretty much none of which happened, so yea it's not safe to open and more people are going to die because the Republicans couldn't be arsed to do their fucking job.

Hospitals aren't overwhelmed anymore, as shown by all the temp hospitals closing down.
 
Oct 27, 2017
12,374
Hospitals aren't overwhelmed anymore, as shown by all the temp hospitals closing down.

That does seem to be at least one of the things on the checklist that worked out, but wouldn't a second wave negate this nearly entirely?

That's assuming that one hits in full force of course, I have to admit there's a lot of details about all of this functions still that I'm not clear enough or educated enough on to make a definitive statement.
 

Netherscourge

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,899
I wonder, honestly, if the plan to flatten the curve by Republicans is to let everyone catch the virus so that there's no new cases to report moving forward. Because once everyone gets infected, there won't be any new cases to report!!! Boom, curve flattened.

/Thinkingman.gif
 

Nola

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
8,025
That does seem to be at least one of the things on the checklist that worked out, but wouldn't a second wave negate this nearly entirely?

That's assuming that one hits in full force of course, I have to admit there's a lot of details about all of this functions still that I'm not clear enough or educated enough on to make a definitive statement.
I think, at least based on what I have read in the news and heard from my own girlfriend(a nurse), capacity has definitely increased, capability to care for Covid patients as well. And that is a good thing. Treatment has also improved. But if we keep getting wave after wave, or another big one, it is always possible to overwhelm a system again.
 
Oct 27, 2017
12,374
I think, at least based on what I have read in the news and heard from my own girlfriend(a nurse), capacity has definitely increased, capability to care for Covid patients as well. And that is a good thing. Treatment has also improved. But if we keep getting wave after wave, or another big one, it is always possible to overwhelm a system again.

Well that is certainly awesome news as far as all of that goes; I have a couple of friends who are in nursing but I haven't heard much from them in the last few weeks because when they're not working they're still getting over being burned out. So I certainly appreciate what your girlfriend is doing.

So I'm hoping for all of our healthcare workers and just general for our fellow humans that that doesn't happen. I'm extremely disappointed with the attitude I'm seeing in my city though, after people following restrictions pretty rigorously in Ohio I'm now seeing people throw all of that to the wind in the last three or four days. It's disconcerting.
 
OP
OP

Deleted member 12790

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
24,537

ABIC

Banned
Nov 19, 2017
1,170
We're only at 3-5% of deaths per capital of NYC, after adjusting for metro areas and such. So there's gonna be a lot more to come.. 20-30x growth in death cases within next 8-12 weeks.

That's even assuming we eventually lockdown hard like NYC.

Otherwise death count for TX could be 100x+ growth from today.
 

poklane

Member
Oct 25, 2017
27,861
the Netherlands
It is, there was 2,012 cases on May 15th

www.worldometers.info

Texas COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Texas COVID-19 Coronavirus update by county with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, current active cases, recoveries, historical data, trends, projections, and timeline.
Worldometer is a bit funky when it comes to daily cases because they use GMT+0 as their timezone, not the country's or in this case state's timezone. This means that at times a state can have 2 updates in a day on worldometer and then no updates at all the next.
 

Book One

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,812
But tHe HoSPiTaLs aReNt oVeRWheLmEd AnYMoRe

Not for long.


sadly it's going to take getting to that point for a lot of folks around here. I already see a lot of people brushing off case numbers because 'testing has increased' as though that makes it...better somehow?

I'm hoping for the best but if we actually get to the point where hospitalizations and deaths rise/spike, it's going to suck that that's what it took from some people to take the whole thing more seriously.
 

captive

Member
Oct 25, 2017
16,988
Houston
sadly it's going to take getting to that point for a lot of folks around here. I already see a lot of people brushing off case numbers because 'testing has increased' as though that makes it...better somehow?

I'm hoping for the best but if we actually get to the point where hospitalizations and deaths rise/spike, it's going to suck that that's what it took from some people to take the whole thing more seriously.
Yup.

My wife and I use the testing numbers and essentially say if 1800 new confirmed cases, that probably means there's 5-10 times that amount in new cases that aren't confirmed.
 

Dragoon

Banned
Oct 31, 2017
11,231
This is my fear. We are going to start opening non-essential things in Ontario, and I fear for an absolute shit show. I still think we are 30 to 60 days too early for this.
 
Oct 27, 2017
10,660
Unless we're testing everyone, these numbers don't say much. And the current plan is to limit testing to influence 'official' counts, fuck that.
 

Sheepinator

Member
Jul 25, 2018
27,923
The main goal is to not have overwhelmed hospitals, so that people aren't dying from triage who would otherwise live. However, if it ends up being that everyone gets it until herd immunity and that's OK so long as the hospitals don't get overwhelmed along the way, then we're just accepting hundreds of thousands of dead. And in the meantime, continued fear from much of the population, because for all those idiots packing bars and restaurants today there are countless more who aren't going to be spending much all year. The total cost to lives and the economy will probably be worse than solving the public health concern, with transparency, testing, tracing, and not the continued mixed messages and dangerous messages and bs about vaccines by end of year that we're currently getting.
 

legend166

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,113
In Australia it took about 3 weeks of daily new cases being under 20 for restrictions to be slightly eased as of two days ago. We're slightly smaller population wise than Texas, but not all that different.

Seeing states in America reopening when daily cases are still over one thousand and rising is just insanity.
 

MIMIC

Member
Dec 18, 2017
8,315
Good Lord. Texas beat it's former peak by 343 cases.

EDIT: The New York Times is reporting 1,818 cases for May 15. Other sources are reporting a more or less different stat.
 

Sheepinator

Member
Jul 25, 2018
27,923
I use this data, which takes screenshots of the Texas Health Services dashboard.

covidtracking.com

Texas

Cases, testing, hospitalization, outcomes, long-term-care, and race and ethnicity data for Texas, plus data sources, notes, and grade.

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards
 

MisterSnrub

Member
Mar 10, 2018
5,899
Someplace Far Away
I have a feeling the USA will hit 500k deaths this year, and it will be that bad purely because of right wing morons. Who will also be disproportionately the people who die most, owing to their age and stupidity.
 

Templeusox

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,239
I have a feeling the USA will hit 500k deaths this year, and it will be that bad purely because of right wing morons. Who will also be disproportionately the people who die most, owing to their age and stupidity.
I think that goes beyond even the most pessimistic projections. It would be hard to get there, honestly. Events like concerts, sports with spectators, and conventions would need to be reinstated to get to that number and that's probably not going to happen this year. That said, 250K does certainly seem like a possibility.
 

perfectchaos007

It's Happening
Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,230
Texas
We should have done an actual 2 month lockdown like China did. We're going to be seeing 25,000-30,000 daily cases in the US until a vaccine arrives in early-mid 2021 at this rate.
 

T002 Tyrant

Member
Nov 8, 2018
8,932
Huh, who knew or ever warned them that that was going to happen? There were absolutely no evidence of that happening.. /s
 

Afrikan

Member
Oct 28, 2017
16,957
"Everything is fine!"

giphy.gif
 

kickz

Member
Nov 3, 2017
11,395
That does seem to be at least one of the things on the checklist that worked out, but wouldn't a second wave negate this nearly entirely?

Not really, once the curve is flattened, the hospitals should not be in danger of being overwhelmed.

We need widespread antibody testing to confirm this ofcourse.
 

perfectchaos007

It's Happening
Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,230
Texas
"Everything is fine!"
"It's due to increased testing"


The Amarillo Public Health Department reported 734 new, combined coronavirus cases in Potter and Randall County on Saturday.

The City of Amarillo says the increase in the number of positive cases is due to an increase in testing volume for COVID-19, KAMR-TV in Amarillo reports.

According to KXAN's coronavirus tracking, Texas had 1,801 new cases on Saturday, which is by far the largest single-day increase during the pandemic. The previous high for a single-day case count was 1,448 on Thursday.

On May 4, Gov. Abbott sent a Surge Response Team (SRT) to Amarillo to begin testing people in high risk areas like meat packing facilities. According to a release from his office, the state is seeing the results of that testing and "will continue to see these results in targeted areas over the next two weeks."

www.kxan.com

Texas reports COVID-19 case spike in Amarillo with targeted testing strategy

The Amarillo Public Health Department reported 734 new, combined coronavirus cases in Potter and Randall County on Saturday.
 
OP
OP

Deleted member 12790

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
24,537
"It's due to increased testing"

And just to repeat (I know it's not you saying that), the claim that the numbers are increase due to increased testing is bullshit:

To the people saying the increase in cases is due to the increase in testing:

Let's put some further numbers to this, to show how testing increased throughout april, yet cases per day decreased, we'll start on april 10th, the day after the previous worst day in texas. I'm going by 3 days each jump because i don't want to be counting every day:

april 10th to april 13th: 17,308 tests done during this span (totals: 133,226-115,918)
april 13th to april 16th: 22,321 tests done (totals: 155,547-133,226)
april 16th to april 19th: 27,163 tests done (totals: 182,710 - 155,547)

april 19th to april 22nd: 34,073 tests done (totals: 216,783 - 182,710)
april 22nd to april 25th: 46,033 tests done (totals: 262,816 - 216,783)
trend continues throughout may


the first major protests in Texas began on april 18th, 19th, and 20th in austin dallas and houston, then again on the 23rd, then again on the 25th, to account for the pre-may rise. Every day in April, the number of daily tests done increased, yet the daily cases count went down. As soon as people started going out en-mass, beginning with the protests and extending with the reopening, the daily cases count started going up as testing increased.

If, as people were saying, the increase in texas cases was simply because testing was increasing, it would have shown in April, yet it did not. The trend reversed as soon as people started congregating, exactly as everyone was told.

Keep in mind, these are done in groups of 3 day totals, just to reduce the work on my part. The trend is still visible, however.

Here is the daily cases chart color coordinated to the above:

jB4ujBB.png


The blue is during the lock down in april (again, as testing increased). The orange is the week when protests started. The green is the time period after the reopening.

WHY THESE DATES MATTER: April 10th, the highest single day total in Texas, came approximately 2 weeks after Greg Abbott issued a soft shelter-in-place warning, which began on March 25th. The period between April 10th to April 22, which is the only dip in the current trend of daily cases, also represents a two week period. May 1st, Texas reopened. May 10th, roughly 2 weeks after the protests began and reopening the state, we've basically matched April 10th in new cases. The corona virus can take up to two weeks for symptoms to display, hence the importance of these multiple two-week windows.

Again, during all this time, testing has steadily increased. Yet the trend reversed. The case count going up is NOT because testing is increasing. The increase in cases has not correlated to the increase in testing, it's a different curve that correlates to the increase in public activity.
 

perfectchaos007

It's Happening
Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,230
Texas
Abbott also said that he would stop re-opening businesses if covid cases started increasing again. They have increased, and more businesses including Gyms are allowed to open Monday
 

Devilgunman

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,450
I think the daily case counts might not give the complete picture of increasing cases of COVID-19 since some data that being published right now can be backlog results from weeks ago. I think another metric that people should focus on is hospitalization numbers

www.click2houston.com

UPDATED FRIDAY: This is what the coronavirus curve and hospitalization rate in Texas looks like right now

Using data from the Texas Department of State Health Services, the Texas Tribune is tracking how many people have tested positive for the novel coronavirus in Texas each day.

ZHZBDSOLQBGV5N5LAO6HXBW2G4.png


At the end of the day, this is the data that matters the most. This data is the reason we stay at home and it is now climbing. We have not seen the peak yet. In the beginning of April,, Texas has 20,000 hospital beds, 2100 icu beds and 8,700 ventilators. I don't know the numbers now but it won't be significantly different. If the hospitalization numbers don't have downward trajectory anytime soon, Texas hospitals could be overwhelmed in the coming months.
 

zoltek

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,917
I think the daily case counts might not give the complete picture of increasing cases of COVID-19 since some data that being published right now can be backlog results from weeks ago. I think another metric that people should focus on is hospitalization numbers

www.click2houston.com

UPDATED FRIDAY: This is what the coronavirus curve and hospitalization rate in Texas looks like right now

Using data from the Texas Department of State Health Services, the Texas Tribune is tracking how many people have tested positive for the novel coronavirus in Texas each day.

ZHZBDSOLQBGV5N5LAO6HXBW2G4.png


At the end of the day, this is the data that matters the most. This data is the reason we stay at home and it is now climbing. We have not seen the peak yet. In the beginning of April,, Texas has 20,000 hospital beds, 2100 icu beds and 8,700 ventilators. I don't know the numbers now but it won't be significantly different. If the hospitalization numbers don't have downward trajectory anytime soon, Texas hospitals could be overwhelmed in the coming months.

You are absolutely right. Considering that 80% of cases are mild and perhaps around 40% are completely asymptomatic (not to mention the nuances involved with increased testing and the populations that are tested compared to a few weeks ago -- which the OP is glossing over), the more relevant numbers are hospitalizations (which tend to lag about 1 week after becoming symptomatic) and deaths (lag about 2 weeks). It's entirely possible those numbers will go up in a statistically significant manner as well, but at this point, number of cases alone is educational but not particular useful.
 

Psittacus

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,926
I'm not sure what the long-term goal is here. When hospitals are overwhelmed lockdowns will be reinstated out of necessity, and constantly opening and closing is way worse for businesses than just staying closed a bit longer.
 

JavyOO7

Member
Oct 27, 2017
308
if america had ubi then none of this 'reopen the economy' shit would happen. people would have money, people can stay in and be safe, and just wait patiently until a cure comes. we wouldn't have to be locked for 18 months or whatever, probably had opened up the 'ecnomy' much sooner if we had a president and an administration that knew how to do the hard work properly to contain this... but didn't. god damn i can't wait for vote for biden in november so that i don't have to deal with this orange dumbass anymore