Yea they did roughly 4x as many tests but positives only went up 2.8x?
I'm not good at math though so maybe I'm missing something.
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Texas coronavirus discussion - wear your face masks, y'all
- Thread starter Deleted member 12790
- Start date
- COVID OT
Yea they did roughly 4x as many tests but positives only went up 2.8x?
I'm not good at math though so maybe I'm missing something.
Seeing Tropical Storm Arthur my next biggest fear is an active Hurricane season that lands somewhere like here in Houston or in Florida where people are being told prematurely to go back out and suddenly you have a natural disaster forcing thousands into close proximity in shelters after failing to actually flatten the curve and bring down case counts to a manageable level.....As we still are near the bottom in testing.
Yeah, I'm not really following from the numbers. The cases have tripled and the tests have quadrupled, and Houston's new cases have been flat for a month while the testing has presumably increased.
I mean I inherently think just flinging all the doors open is real real stupid. But I'm not sure what there is to draw from the numbers (yet). It is certainly possible they're still not testing enough though, which means it's hard to use this for anything.
Houston, Dallas, and Austin are definitely less concentrated, but what Houston, for example, does have is a lot of large urban and suburban communities with a lot of mixed use spaces that get very busy. With a lot of commuter traffic. Which to me invites a really wide distributional spread. Which will make It really difficult tracing cases(which I almost want to lol because I don't think that shit will ever happen to the level it needs to here anyways).
And I've mentioned it in other threads, but as someone that commutes to a faux "essential" job in one of these communities, social distancing and such is basically done with. And while parts of Houston proper seem decent with the guidelines, I can't imagine this not dragging out for quite some time with the way the community operates.
Stupidity kills. The sad thing is it's usually homicide instead of suicide.
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Texas has a positive testing rate of over 7%, you look at countries who went into effective lock downs and they have an infection rate of 2% like south korea, Australia, new zealand. Extrapolated to the population of texas, thats 1.4 million who will test positive. THESE ARE HORRIBLE NUMBERS. You look at New York city's infection rate over the last month, and they've dipped significantly, Texas' infection rate is not at all in line with the increase in testing rate that other states are seeing during the same time period.
www.nytimes.com.
Texas infection rate is outstripping the decline that should be happening as testing increases two months into the pandemic with a shut down.
Houston's infection rate over the same time period:
The rate of new cases is not showing the decline new testing should bring. New cases are outstripping the decline of new testing in other states, by a lot. Because we're NOT declining.
Here's the entire state:
The number goes up, as testing goes up, indicating the daily rate isn't decreasing. A logaritmic curve should be demonstrated as testing increases if daily cases are going down, instead the state is somewhere between a linear ramp up and an exponential ramp up depending on time period examined. More testing is supposed to be a regression towards a mean, instead we're getting more testing yielding comparatively more cases, which shouldn't be happening when the goal has been to flatten the curve. This is all failing, after a noticable declining dip in middle of april.
Coronavirus Cases Slow in U.S., but the Big Picture Remains Tenuous (Published 2020)
Reports of new cases have declined nationally, and deaths have slowed. But reopening plans leave unanswered questions.
Texas infection rate is outstripping the decline that should be happening as testing increases two months into the pandemic with a shut down.
Houston's infection rate over the same time period:
The rate of new cases is not showing the decline new testing should bring. New cases are outstripping the decline of new testing in other states, by a lot. Because we're NOT declining.
Here's the entire state:
The number goes up, as testing goes up, indicating the daily rate isn't decreasing. A logaritmic curve should be demonstrated as testing increases if daily cases are going down, instead the state is somewhere between a linear ramp up and an exponential ramp up depending on time period examined. More testing is supposed to be a regression towards a mean, instead we're getting more testing yielding comparatively more cases, which shouldn't be happening when the goal has been to flatten the curve. This is all failing, after a noticable declining dip in middle of april.
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Pretty much my stance. If you are a guy, you could just shave your head. It's not hard. You got scissors, you got a razor, you're set to go. Will be easier if you got an electric razor, but other than that, it's not hard. There are videos on YouTube that teach you many things, one being how to self-cut your hair. All you need is time, which I'm sure a lot of people have. The guys that say, "How DARE the Governor says we have to stay in quarantine! I want my hair cut, DAMMIT!!!", are just lazy fucks that want to complain.
I really wouldn't worry about looking good or fashionable. Life is more important than either of those things. If you are too caught up about looking good in the face of everybody dying, so you risk your health just so you could look styling, those folk should just do us all a favor and go take a long walk off a short pier, because they are useless to us all. Anybody that puts their lives and the lives of others in danger just to "look good" are wastes of flesh and breath.
Texas has a positive testing rate of over 7%, you look at countries who went into effective lock downs and they have an infection rate of 2% like south korea, Australia, new zealand. Extrapolated to the population of texas, thats 1.4 million who will test positive. THESE ARE HORRIBLE NUMBERS. You look at New York city's infection rate over the last month, and they've dipped significantly, Texas' infection rate is not at all in line with the increase in testing rate that other states are seeing during the same time period.
Coronavirus Cases Slow in U.S., but the Big Picture Remains Tenuous (Published 2020)
Reports of new cases have declined nationally, and deaths have slowed. But reopening plans leave unanswered questions.
Texas infection rate is outstripping the decline that should be happening as testing increases two months into the pandemic with a shut down.
Houston's infection rate over the same time period:
Yet Texas death numbers are still on the bottom end of the states per capita and the lowest of the higher population of states. Maybe they got lucky based on travel hubs but so far it has not blown up there even with the removed restrictions. Even if you account for excess deaths in general it doesn't move the needle much there.
My guess is how sprawled our their metro areas prevent the spread as badly as other states
I could honestly give two fucks about whether the guy who wants a hair cut dies or not. I'm more concerned about the barber shop owner who couldn't get the small business loan, so has to open for him to stay afloat, the employee who couldn't file for unemployment so has to go to work to keep his family alive, or the doctor/nurse who still can't get PPE and must handle an ever increasing workload because of the spiffy scalps showing up in their E.R.s
The thing is people are being starved out of sheltering in place, and these red hatted Covidiots are basically ensuring those who have to work will have a harder time surviving.
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You can see it blow up here:
the trend reversed as the restrictions were removed. And Texas is on the low end per capita precisely because we're also on the low end per capita in testing. There is still enough to extrapolate what the trend is, and the middle of april saw the trend of new daily cases decrease, until things opened up, when they started increasing again.
It's be great if people stopped saying this.
The lock down was supposed to do the folloaing:
Slow the spread of the virus
Flatten the curve and prevent hospitals from being over whelmed
Allow the government time to develop a plan for testing, both antibody and otherwise.
Allow the government time to develop contact tracing plan.
And allow time to manufacture ppe
Pretty much none of which happened, so yea it's not safe to open and more people are going to die because the Republicans couldn't be arsed to do their fucking job.
You can see it blow up here:
the trend reversed as the restrictions were removed. And Texas is on the low end per capita precisely because we're also on the low end per capita in testing. There is still enough to extrapolate what the trend is, and the middle of april saw the trend of new daily cases decrease, until things opened up, when they started increasing again.
Thank you! I was trying to find a similar chart for Texas and that shows what I was worried about but couldn't see the data supporting it.
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Just to explain better, every day in april, the number of new tests per day increased, but the number of new cases began to dip. Once things opened up, the trend reversed, and new tests started correlating to new cases.
Frustratingly, you can't find the data by date for dallas or austin, only houston. Which I think is likely on purpose, as Houston is the best-case scenario in texas so far. Our daily cases are plateaued in correlation to new testing, where reports are dallas and austin are increasing after a decreasing rate mid-april.
we haven't even peaked yet...
what did she mess up about the rodeo?
They shut it down by or before mid March.
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You can see it blow up here:
the trend reversed as the restrictions were removed. And Texas is on the low end per capita precisely because we're also on the low end per capita in testing. There is still enough to extrapolate what the trend is, and the middle of april saw the trend of new daily cases decrease, until things opened up, when they started increasing again.
Let's put some further numbers to this, to show how testing increased throughout april, yet cases per day decreased, we'll start on april 10th, the day after the previous worst day in texas. I'm going by 3 days each jump because i don't want to be counting every day:
april 10th to april 13th: 17,308 tests done during this span (totals: 133,226-115,918)
april 13th to april 16th: 22,321 tests done (totals: 155,547-133,226)
april 16th to april 19th: 27,163 tests done (totals: 182,710 - 155,547)
april 19th to april 22nd: 34,073 tests done (totals: 216,783 - 182,710)
apritl 22nd to april 25th: 46,033 tests done (totals: 262,816 - 216,783)
trend continues throughout may
the first major protests in Texas began on april 18th, 19th, and 20th in austin dallas and houston, then again on the 23rd, then again on the 25th, to account for the pre-may rise. Every day in April, the number of daily tests done increased, yet the daily cases count went down. As soon as people started going out en-mass, beginning with the protests and extending with the reopening, the daily cases count started going up as testing increased.
If, as people were saying, the increase in texas cases was simply because testing was increasing, it would have shown in April, yet it did not. The trend reversed as soon as people started congregating, exactly as everyone was told.
Keep in mind, these are done in groups of 3 day totals, just to reduce the work on my part. The trend is still visible, however.
Here is the daily cases chart color coordinated to the above:
The blue is during the lock down in april (again, as testing increased). The orange is the week when protests started. The green is the time period after the reopening.
Again, during all this time, testing has steadily increased. Yet the trend reversed. The case count going up is NOT because testing is increasing.
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I also don't think she has been perfect. Better than most, but her order was incredibly tepid and full of loopholes, one that allowed many companies to absurdly claim essential status and force workers and contractors to show up to their job sites with minimal precautions. That basically allowed many businesses to skirt the language and deem themselves essential.
That all did come later than it should have. The rodeo and the cook off never should have happened and we had enough evidence at the time to know that. And both were likely big instances of community spread.
Again, I want to preface she did do better than most, and if she was in charge of Texas thing would be a lot better right now I suspect, but as someone that is a living example of where she failed, she wasn't perfect. And I think a lot of credit inside Houston just needs to go to the people that embraced the measures and still do.
New daily peak a couple of days ago. Last 3 days have been 3 of the highest for daily new cases. The 7-day average has been trending up and is at a peak too, about 33% above what it was before the state started to re-open.
Sure and the next one thinks"the best time is next week" and the next one thinks it's the week after that and the death circle continues.
Stay.
The fuck.
Home.
Meanwhile, I'm supposed to report to my desk in my office Monday morning. Thanks corporate overlords!
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Die for oil
die for tesla
die for the economy
there are things more important than your life, like increasing already high profit margins to ensure a slightly fatter bonus checks for millionaire CEOs.
The crazy thing is that they were praising people's productivity working from home over the last month and a half. I don't see why they're in such a rush other than managers needing to physically feel like they are over their employees
...or maybe the fact that most people don't have jobs that can be done from home? Retail, service, or any other in person job. Small business owners, etc. What I'm seeing from from-home jobs is that they are still staying home and slowly going back to the office, no rush. The people who are trying to or being told to go back are mostly people who literally couldn't work.
I'm not talking about those people. I know a lot of jobs literally can't work from home. I was merely talking about my company.
Just found out a salon, half a block away from where I live, defied orders to stay closed and just opened up and has already done over 150 haircuts.
This is part of Riverside County , or more specifically its the city of Corona and the city spokeswoman decided they're not going to do anything because it's the state's and county responsibility to cite them.
My god we are so fucked. People are coming all the way from LA just to get a haircut.
I can't believe a haircut is what people are risking their damn lives and others lives for.
This is part of Riverside County , or more specifically its the city of Corona and the city spokeswoman decided they're not going to do anything because it's the state's and county responsibility to cite them.
My god we are so fucked. People are coming all the way from LA just to get a haircut.
I can't believe a haircut is what people are risking their damn lives and others lives for.
i would send this to any boss that says you need to come back to the office.
The Risks - Know Them - Avoid Them
Please read this link to learn about the author and background to these posts. It seems many people are breathing some relief, and I’m not sure why. An epidemic curve has a relatively predictable upslope and once the peak is reached, the back slope can also be predicted. We have robust data from...
www.erinbromage.com
you couldn't pay me a million bucks to go into a office building for ~8hours a day.
my company has started return to work plans as well. I agree it's kinda crzay cause most of us can wfh unless theres a need to work w hardware. I also have two kids, one 6 and another 3mo -- there's no care for the 3mo available and 'virtual camps' in place of summer camps are a literal shitshow -- our 6yr old is going through it now and at best we need to be there to help her since the 'instructors' are on the other side of the monitor.
There are more important things than living. Like making those dividends.
Yeah, believe me, I'm surrounded by people who can't.
My mom is a banker
My father-in-law owns a retail shop
My wife and mother-in-law are nurses
So I get the whole "some people can't" thing. But me? I work an office job that can do 100% of its tasks from home. There's zero reason for me to have to go back
In the city? Out here in Cypress I'd say a good 80-90% of people are still wearing them in places like grocery stores.
I legit just came from a curbside grocery pickup up here in The Woodlands. The HEB was packed with maybe 20-25% of people wearing masks.
For us if the whole point is to try and keep distance the main group still should be WFH so that there's space for the people that have to be. the whole thing is asinine I agree.
I've been following the numbers fairly closely on the worldometers site. And digging into countries that have their numbers spike. Seems like a large reason for the spikes is prisons having this ravage the population. Like 400+ jumps in a single county in one day. I think you can find county historical data on Texas there in downloadable format.
I think she could have cancelled it earlier, though at the time they didn't know if there was community spread yet. By now, it's clear COVID-19 has been spreading far longer than we thought.
I would say 80% have been wearing masks in the Sugar Land area.
I found that the closer to the medical center you live, the more you see people following the guideline. I live close to NRG stadium and I've seen most people around these areas wearing masks and keeping social distance. I also found that people who shop at many Asian grocery stores like 99 Ranch, H-Mart or Seiwa Market are strictly following guidelines as well.
I live in Arizona. It's about the same here. 80% of everyone walking around aren't wearing masks. Our governor says "they" are enforcing social distancing. "They". When pressed on it he reiterated "they". Gonna be real fun here in 3 weeks.
On a fun note we've decided it's time to home school my soon to be 8th grader for next year. Recess will be video games. I'm fairly confident my college kids will be doing distance learning too.
Ya, I'm out in Sugar Land and I am seeing 80-90% of people wearing masks as well. I don't know why the rate would be worse in the city proper that is supposedly more liberal.
Yeah I live close to NRG stadium too, and went to Kroger this morning and saw literally one person not wearing a mask (out of like 200 people in the store).
at 25% capacity. It's a good thing theres a restriction because otherwise gyms would be at 100%. People are desperate to get back to their workout routines. Don't know if youve noticed how baron aisles of home gym equipment are at big box stores. I cant even find free weights and ive tried several stores.
Gyms have got to be one of the WORST places to go. It's people breathing hard all over the damn place and just getting folks to wipe down the equipment in good times was a nightmare. You're probably better off just getting strangers to cough on you.
Damn, Houston sounds nuts. I rarely see anyone without a mask in Austin, and they're outside on a walk or something in that case. Did spot a few noses at HEB last night, though.
Scroll down to the daily new cases graph. That graph does not look like it's getting better. Even if they did more testing.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/texas/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/texas/