-
Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.
Trump is struggling in the polls...in RED states?!
- Thread starter Deleted member 31923
- Start date
Am I? I remember polls being the reason most people were complacent during 2016 election. Maybe I am still shell shocked from 2016 though and I'll happily take my crow
We're actually only less than 5 months away!
I think?
Still a lot of time for things to change
Of course
Pretty sure in the National Election, Utah voted 21% in favor of Evan, a third party candidate, and 27% in favor of Hillary.
Trump won with 45%.
Utah isn't really a fan of Trump, if the GOP continue down this evil path, Utah could totally become a "Blue State" very soon.
Trump won with 45%.
Utah isn't really a fan of Trump, if the GOP continue down this evil path, Utah could totally become a "Blue State" very soon.
538 was accurately predicting the tightening of the race in the days leading up to the 2016 election. Polling, in the aggregate, is quite reliable but the folks interpreting the results less so.
still vote.
Oh that part is definitely true. I'm sure plenty relaxed, but the polls were never that much in Clinton's favor. But your thinking is spot on. No complacency. Biden is sizeably outpacing where Clinton was with her small lead at this time in 2016 and even more than where Obama was at this time in 2012. Still...
Polls between Hillary and Trump were much tighter than the ones between Biden and Trump have been (with a few exceptions, like post-convention or post-Access Hollywood tape that had her up +8 or +10; otherwise Hillary's lead was consistently fairly small). And in any event, national polls predicted a low-single-digit win for Hillary and that's exactly what happened in the popular vote.
I'm not arguing for complacency this time around! But it's also not complacency just to accept that polling for Biden has generally and consistently been stronger than it was for Hillary four years ago.
Only way it will is if Biden wins I guess, 2016 really broke us lmao, took until the midterms for me to have some hope again
Not all polls are equal. It's best to find pollsters that have good ratings, credibility and a methodology that you can agree with and then watch as the trends move within those polls themselves. 538 is at the top of their game for a reason.
Vote!
Don't get complacent! These polls show momentum. We need to make it happen! VOTE!
Of course, they predicted a percentage and there was always the possibility. I dont deny any of that.
For me, and I suspect others too, these polls can be seen as ways to make ourselves feel better about the political landscape, they traffic on hope to a certain extent. Of course, analyzing them and drawing conclusions its a whole other realm but for my own mental health its been better to keep a relative distance since and make sure Im an active voter in my community.
Indeed, Republican voters might say they won't vote for him, but come time? They'll just vote for that R behind his name. So please get out and vote or he will be reelected.
While a lot of it is noise, I think the response to COVID/BLM has really hurt his image. His rep with the base was being a decision maker. They didn't care if he was wrong, they only cared if he said he was right.
Now he's been relegated to not even being decisive.
Now he's been relegated to not even being decisive.
I don't look to the last presidential election. I look to the midterms which were a direct repudiation of Trump's win and resulting policies. There were already big signs then. It's only increased since then, seemingly.
Could be lurkers around here still on the fence or thinking it's in the bag. Stranger things have happened.
It's still a long way until November.
Also I just got done reading an article about how Trump campaign officials in battle ground states are more excited/confident in a Trump win than in 2016. Which is like of course. Noone thought he had a chance last time and all these guys are Trump lackeys/cult members this time around. No bad news or doubting allowed or you will piss off dear leader.
Regardless it's not over until he's voted out.
Also I just got done reading an article about how Trump campaign officials in battle ground states are more excited/confident in a Trump win than in 2016. Which is like of course. Noone thought he had a chance last time and all these guys are Trump lackeys/cult members this time around. No bad news or doubting allowed or you will piss off dear leader.
Regardless it's not over until he's voted out.
She was never at any point ahead in the polling averages by the amount Biden is now (edit: make that after the Democratic primaries were over because she had a larger lead in April). Obviously it could still change, but as of now Biden is beating Trump by a much larger margin and in hindsight we were all wrong to consider Hillary a slam dunk in 2016.
Trump and Biden even in Iowa is one of the most consequential polls, largely because it makes Joni Ernst re-election chances slimmer. Selzer Co.'s latest poll shows Greenfield up +3 on Ernst, and Selzer is considered the most accurate pollster in the US.
These polling numbers keep getting better and better for Biden. Even the notoriously Red-favored Rasmussen polls showed Trump with a -13 approval rating (43% disapprove, 56% disapprove), the largest negative gap for him in years in Rasmussen. I think people are taking this the right way too... ALmost nobody is taking this as a slam dunk, unlike 2016, where people read into slim polling advantages for Clinton and translated those "70% likelihood" as "100% Likelihood."
What's great about struggling numbers in conservative states is that it means Trump has to spend money and time advertising there. Just two or three weeks ago, they had to start advertising in Ohio, a state that TRump easily won and was expected to easily win again in 2020, but then polls suggested Ohio was a toss-up... SO hey have to start spending. And now, you look at Arkanasas, Iowa, Georgia, Texas... Down the line and they end up having to shift funding and coordination from a state like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania over to those conservative states just to ensure that they don't lose one of them... It makes winning Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania that much more possible.
For the senate, the influence is stronger. These senate elections are all going to be about turnout for Republicans, and as support waines for Trump, it becomes harder for those Republican senators to hold their seats. Right now, Arizona and Colorado seem solid blue pickup. MAine is increasingly becoming more likely. Montana is leaning blue. And Iowa has just become +3 for D from a reliable pollster. THat's your senate majority right there even if you assume Democrats lose the hard-to-keep Alabama Doug Jones seat (But even that's a wildcard... Like if Sessions threatens to stay in the race against Tuberville, all Doug Jones needs is for ~5% of Tuberville's base to write in Sessions or not vote and it's a competitive race). Those 5 seats give Democrats a senate majority, and those are all looking increasingly likely. And then, if there's an unexpected upset in any of the "stretch goal" seats -- Ossoff in Georgia, McGrath in Kentucky, the person challenging Lindsey Graham, North Carolina, etc. Then you're not just looking at a 51/49 majority, but an actual solid senate majority if you can steal a seat. If Trump turnout is low and Democratic turnout is high, then that becomes more and more likely.
Trump teeters at this 40% support precipice, dropping below 40% in some polls which he hasn't had happen since the first months of his presidency, in the wake of Charlottesville, firing Comey, Mueller appointment, and so on. John McCain famously said that the magic number for Trump to lose Republican support publicly is 35%, if he drops below 35% his support will crumble from the Republican establishment and more will come out against him. In the next 2 months we have John Bolton's book dropping (like, in 7 days) and a critical book by Trump's niece in August. He also has these Supreme Court case announcements coming soon, within the next few weeks, in which 2 look like they'll be a personal loss for him. If his support falls below 35% I really think that the house of cards topples.
These polling numbers keep getting better and better for Biden. Even the notoriously Red-favored Rasmussen polls showed Trump with a -13 approval rating (43% disapprove, 56% disapprove), the largest negative gap for him in years in Rasmussen. I think people are taking this the right way too... ALmost nobody is taking this as a slam dunk, unlike 2016, where people read into slim polling advantages for Clinton and translated those "70% likelihood" as "100% Likelihood."
What's great about struggling numbers in conservative states is that it means Trump has to spend money and time advertising there. Just two or three weeks ago, they had to start advertising in Ohio, a state that TRump easily won and was expected to easily win again in 2020, but then polls suggested Ohio was a toss-up... SO hey have to start spending. And now, you look at Arkanasas, Iowa, Georgia, Texas... Down the line and they end up having to shift funding and coordination from a state like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania over to those conservative states just to ensure that they don't lose one of them... It makes winning Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania that much more possible.
For the senate, the influence is stronger. These senate elections are all going to be about turnout for Republicans, and as support waines for Trump, it becomes harder for those Republican senators to hold their seats. Right now, Arizona and Colorado seem solid blue pickup. MAine is increasingly becoming more likely. Montana is leaning blue. And Iowa has just become +3 for D from a reliable pollster. THat's your senate majority right there even if you assume Democrats lose the hard-to-keep Alabama Doug Jones seat (But even that's a wildcard... Like if Sessions threatens to stay in the race against Tuberville, all Doug Jones needs is for ~5% of Tuberville's base to write in Sessions or not vote and it's a competitive race). Those 5 seats give Democrats a senate majority, and those are all looking increasingly likely. And then, if there's an unexpected upset in any of the "stretch goal" seats -- Ossoff in Georgia, McGrath in Kentucky, the person challenging Lindsey Graham, North Carolina, etc. Then you're not just looking at a 51/49 majority, but an actual solid senate majority if you can steal a seat. If Trump turnout is low and Democratic turnout is high, then that becomes more and more likely.
Trump teeters at this 40% support precipice, dropping below 40% in some polls which he hasn't had happen since the first months of his presidency, in the wake of Charlottesville, firing Comey, Mueller appointment, and so on. John McCain famously said that the magic number for Trump to lose Republican support publicly is 35%, if he drops below 35% his support will crumble from the Republican establishment and more will come out against him. In the next 2 months we have John Bolton's book dropping (like, in 7 days) and a critical book by Trump's niece in August. He also has these Supreme Court case announcements coming soon, within the next few weeks, in which 2 look like they'll be a personal loss for him. If his support falls below 35% I really think that the house of cards topples.
Last edited:
FWIW, Republicans don't have to vote for Biden. They just need to be discouraged from voting at all.
fuck polls, Hilary was leading by 8 points and lost to this imbecile of a man...VOTE...ignore the fucking polls..
Maybe Republicans' voter suppression strategy will backfire and discourage some of their own base just enough. Because it seems it will just piss off a lot of moderates who might go through hell to vote if they feel oppressed enough.
If a group of people exist, they exist here, same as anywhere else.
lol, their areas won't have the same kind of suppression. When I say discouraged, I mean they hate what's happening so much they can't vote for Trump again. Even if they can't make themselves vote for Biden, being at home is still one less Trump vote.
Trump is going to lose the election by the largest margin of possibly any incumbent in history. It's going to be a massacre.
BUT... the problem with a poll like this and polling Red States in general is it makes no difference if he wins a state by 4 that he won by 16 the last time around. He still wins it.
Truth is those Red States are out of play.
BUT... the problem with a poll like this and polling Red States in general is it makes no difference if he wins a state by 4 that he won by 16 the last time around. He still wins it.
Truth is those Red States are out of play.
And even then, with the emphasis on mail-in ballots, results are gonna be trickling in meaning if it's not a blowout in a particular state, to not expect actual results for days after.
Exactly.
Remember that only about 28% of eligible voters actually turned out in 2016 when the stakes were super high.
Posting here is GREAT! But it's even better to amplify your voice by getting out and VOTING every chance you get.
I'm going to shout from the rooftops until I'm hoarse. VOTE!
I agree that they traffic hope for us, arguably justified or not, but it goes both ways. The more Republicans that are willing to make a stand against Trump, the more that might otherwise have been hesitant feel empowered to make a stand. To the diehard MAGA goons any Republican that doesn't back Trump is clear evidence of the deep-state but to centrists and moderates their faith in him should be eroding. It isn't necessary that they vote Biden, we only need a small percentage of 2016 Trump voters to stay home on election night in key battleground states.
Last time was a pretty crap pollling error but if the polls stay at similar margins and are still wrong then opinion polling needs some time off, lol.
Only thing that gives me a flicker of optimism
Only thing that gives me a flicker of optimism