I've noticed some polling coming out of red states. Normally, there would be no point in even polling these states, but they found some interesting results.
Here's a poll showing Trump up 2 in Arkansas, where he won by 26 points:
Here's a couple polls showing him up in Missouri by 4 and 8 points, where he won by 18 points:
And the most recent poll in Utah has him up by 3 points, where he won by 18 points (other polls showed a much bigger lead):
Finally, here's one showing him up by 16 in Kentucky, which may seem like a lot, but he won the state by 30 points:
Does this mean that Biden is really competitive in a place like Arkansas? I would say no, but they might suggest his support is down across the board, from red states to blue states. Imagine if you saw a poll that had Biden up only 2 in California or New York, you would and should be very worried. If Trump lost 10 percent of his support across the board from 2016, we would pick up the following states in a mega landslide: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Nebraska (2nd Congressional District), Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, Texas, and Iowa. So these polls are very interesting and may suggest that Trump is in deep trouble right now. And they would also matter for down ballot races. The closer Biden can get to matching Trump in a place like Kentucky, even if he loses, the more risk that Moscow Mitch is in actual trouble of losing his seat that he kept since 1984. Your thoughts on this interesting polling trend?
Here's a poll showing Trump up 2 in Arkansas, where he won by 26 points:
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Arkansas: Trump vs. Biden
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Arkansas: Trump vs. Biden
www.realclearpolitics.com
Here's a couple polls showing him up in Missouri by 4 and 8 points, where he won by 18 points:
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Missouri: Trump vs. Biden
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Missouri: Trump vs. Biden
www.realclearpolitics.com
And the most recent poll in Utah has him up by 3 points, where he won by 18 points (other polls showed a much bigger lead):
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Utah: Trump vs. Biden
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Utah: Trump vs. Biden
www.realclearpolitics.com
Finally, here's one showing him up by 16 in Kentucky, which may seem like a lot, but he won the state by 30 points:
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Kentucky: Trump vs. Biden
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Kentucky: Trump vs. Biden
www.realclearpolitics.com
Does this mean that Biden is really competitive in a place like Arkansas? I would say no, but they might suggest his support is down across the board, from red states to blue states. Imagine if you saw a poll that had Biden up only 2 in California or New York, you would and should be very worried. If Trump lost 10 percent of his support across the board from 2016, we would pick up the following states in a mega landslide: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Nebraska (2nd Congressional District), Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, Texas, and Iowa. So these polls are very interesting and may suggest that Trump is in deep trouble right now. And they would also matter for down ballot races. The closer Biden can get to matching Trump in a place like Kentucky, even if he loses, the more risk that Moscow Mitch is in actual trouble of losing his seat that he kept since 1984. Your thoughts on this interesting polling trend?