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Trump is struggling in the polls...in RED states?!

Deleted member 31923

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 8, 2017
5,826
I've noticed some polling coming out of red states. Normally, there would be no point in even polling these states, but they found some interesting results.

Here's a poll showing Trump up 2 in Arkansas, where he won by 26 points:

www.realclearpolitics.com

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Arkansas: Trump vs. Biden

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Arkansas: Trump vs. Biden
www.realclearpolitics.com www.realclearpolitics.com

Here's a couple polls showing him up in Missouri by 4 and 8 points, where he won by 18 points:

www.realclearpolitics.com

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Missouri: Trump vs. Biden

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Missouri: Trump vs. Biden
www.realclearpolitics.com www.realclearpolitics.com

And the most recent poll in Utah has him up by 3 points, where he won by 18 points (other polls showed a much bigger lead):

www.realclearpolitics.com

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Utah: Trump vs. Biden

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Utah: Trump vs. Biden
www.realclearpolitics.com www.realclearpolitics.com

Finally, here's one showing him up by 16 in Kentucky, which may seem like a lot, but he won the state by 30 points:

www.realclearpolitics.com

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Kentucky: Trump vs. Biden

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Kentucky: Trump vs. Biden
www.realclearpolitics.com www.realclearpolitics.com


Does this mean that Biden is really competitive in a place like Arkansas? I would say no, but they might suggest his support is down across the board, from red states to blue states. Imagine if you saw a poll that had Biden up only 2 in California or New York, you would and should be very worried. If Trump lost 10 percent of his support across the board from 2016, we would pick up the following states in a mega landslide: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Nebraska (2nd Congressional District), Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, Texas, and Iowa. So these polls are very interesting and may suggest that Trump is in deep trouble right now. And they would also matter for down ballot races. The closer Biden can get to matching Trump in a place like Kentucky, even if he loses, the more risk that Moscow Mitch is in actual trouble of losing his seat that he kept since 1984. Your thoughts on this interesting polling trend?
 
HououinKyouma

HououinKyouma

The Wise Ones
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
8,366
So encouraging to see. I don't realistically expect states like Texas or Georgia to turn anytime soon, but it's great to see them inching closer. What this does tell me though is that states like Arizona are absolutely in play, and might have to replace Wisconsin if that becomes more red.

It also gives me more confidence that states like NC and Florida may flip back into the blue.
 

Zache

Unshakable Resolve
The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
2,791
Trump is struggling in red states: TX, GA, OH, AZ, NC, and maybe IA. But in these super red states? Nah.

Polls always underestimate support in these super partisan states.
 
BringBackSonics

BringBackSonics

Member
Oct 27, 2017
45,156
Seattle
These states aren't going to go blue, but it is nice to see Trump's support is eroding in traditional republican areas. gives me hope for 'purple' states.
 
shnurgleton

shnurgleton

Member
Oct 27, 2017
15,864
Boston
Trump may be able to shoot somebody in the street and get away with it, but hundreds of his lackeys around the country shooting and crushing countless innocent men and women to death on Facebook Live, as well as calling in the army to gas largely peaceful protesters and journalists, is hard to overlook. anecdotally I have seen many more conservatives and evangelicals turn based on the events of the last few weeks than I ever did over the last 4 years
 

DeathbyVolcano

Banned
Nov 6, 2017
1,949
Use 538. A lot of these polls either have no pollster rating or poor ratings. If it seems too good to be true, it's probably because it is.

The only red states that are interesting to watch are Georgia, Arizona, and Texas.
 
Mortemis

Mortemis

One Winged Slayer
The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
7,415
I was reading a politico article this morning about what GOP members around the US think of Trump's horrible polling, and their defense of him boiled down to "Trump supporters don't like to be polled". They'd rather lie about their position, or outright hang up on pollsters.

Sounds like BS to me, but I'm not one to really care about polling in general, nor is it my job. GOTV regardless.
 
cdm00

cdm00

The Fallen
Dec 5, 2018
2,225
NC will be the Florida 2.0 (as in, they'll be purple for many future election cycles)
Trump's ceiling in these red states happened in 2016 and won't gain much ground elsewhere unless it's like Wyoming, Idaho, or the Dakotas

Once GA goes blue due to ever-growing Atlanta suburbs and its metro areas and TX, it's game over for the GOP for a while

Edit: But vote like hell come November 3rd. Vote like Biden is 20 points down.
 
RoaminRonin

RoaminRonin

Member
Nov 6, 2017
5,768
Mortemis said:
I was reading a politico article this morning about what GOP members around the US think of Trump's horrible polling, and their defense of him boiled down to "Trump supporters don't like to be polled". They'd rather lie about their position, or outright hang up on pollsters.

Sounds like BS to me, but I'm not one to really care about polling in general, nor is it my job. GOTV regardless.
Click to expand...
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Yea, that excuse is bullshit. Have you ever met a trump who didn't want the world to know that they're not trump supporters?
 
kamikazety

kamikazety

Banned
Dec 5, 2018
187
A poor economy results in a much worse chance for any president's re-election. In this case, thank god. On the flip-side, our economy sucks...
 
ShOcKwAvE

ShOcKwAvE

Member
Oct 27, 2017
514
Carlsbad, CA
If things stay bad for the next few months and he doesn't have any positive (at least for him) outcomes, then yes he might struggle a bit in some reddish states. Couple of things I'll point out though:
  1. His rallies and eventually the national convention will provide some energy to the party. He LOVES doing them and people will take notice.
  2. His team will undoubtedly roll-out a bunch of bullshit ideas and gimmicks over the months leading to the election. Some may be policies, executive orders, etc. Others will be grandiose threats about Biden, the Justice Dept investigations, basically whatever BS he thinks of that week. Remember meeting with Bill Clinton's accusers right before one debate and having them sit in the audience? That x10.
  3. Polls usually tighten as the election gets closer and the base "comes home" as they say, so I'm honestly not going to put much stock in what they say now.
 
Flex1212

Flex1212

Member
Jul 12, 2019
4,150
I saw that Arkansa poll and my jaw dropped. That's a huge swing. I guess the saying Everything Trump Touches Dies is being proven accurate yet again.
 
Pineapple Taco

Pineapple Taco

Member
Nov 16, 2017
1,737
Even if Trump still wins these states, and let's be honest, he probably will win most if not all of the red states, it hurts Republicans down ballot. Take Arizona, he could win the state, but both senate seats are likely to be blue (good job McSally!). I'll be curious to see if this is a permanent shift because of changing demographics or a response to an absolute shitheel as president.

Go vote.
 
Soul Skater

Soul Skater

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,201
That AK poll is crap but yes, he's isn't doing nearly as well in red states against Biden as he was as Hillary

it doesn't take much looking past voter distribution of where Biden won vs Bernie against where Hillary won vs Bernie to figure out why
 

Lcs

Member
Aug 9, 2018
268
Wait until the disinformation campaign goes out in full force and watch his pollings shoot up again.
 
XaviConcept

XaviConcept

Art Director for Videogames
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
4,906
Man, after the last election ... polls mean very little to me. In specifically unscientific, personal bias terms I feel like they almost incited people to not vote because everyone thought Hillary would win via landslide.
 
Blader

Blader

Member
Oct 27, 2017
26,620
There's no chance of Trump losing any of these states and these margins will inevitably tighten as we get closer to November. But they are at least positive indicators of Trump's eroding support nationwide, which matters a lot in states with razor-thin margins (MI, PA, WI, FL), states whose 2016 margins weren't close at all but potentially could be this time around (OH, IA) or red states that Trump already underperformed in (AZ, GA).

Raging Spaniard said:
Man, after the last election ... polls mean very little to me. In specifically unscientific, personal bias terms I feel like they almost incited people to not vote because everyone thought Hillary would win via landslide.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Luckily Dem turnout has been on fire the last couple years (2018 midterms matching presidential-level turnout, 2020 primaries exceeding 2008 in turnout) and most voters seem to believe Trump is more, not less, likely to be re-elected. So certainly seems like the incentive to vote out Trump is alive and well!
 

DonnieTC

Member
Apr 10, 2019
2,360
Soul Skater said:
That AK poll is crap but yes, he's isn't doing nearly as well in red states against Biden as he was as Hillary

it doesn't take much looking past voter distribution of where Biden won vs Bernie against where Hillary won vs Bernie to figure out why
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
I didn't see an Alaska poll (unless you were referring to the Arkansas one which the abbreviation for the state is AR).
 
aliengmr

aliengmr

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,419
We can't just win, we have to overwhelmingly win. This shit, meaning this "normal", must not only end, but be rebuked.
 
XaviConcept

XaviConcept

Art Director for Videogames
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
4,906
Blader said:
There's no chance of Trump losing any of these states and these margins will inevitably tighten as we get closer to November. But they are at least positive indicators of Trump's eroding support nationwide, which matters a lot in states with razor-thin margins (MI, PA, WI, FL), states whose 2016 margins weren't close at all but potentially could be this time around (OH, IA) or red states that Trump already underperformed in (AZ, GA).



Luckily Dem turnout has been on fire the last couple years (2018 midterms matching presidential-level turnout, 2020 primaries exceeding 2008 in turnout) and most voters seem to believe Trump is more, not less, likely to be re-elected. So certainly seems like the incentive to vote out Trump is alive and well!
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

I sure hope so, although that just means next I'll stress out over gerrymandering and Republicans just straight out cheating, sigh
 
shadowsdarknes

shadowsdarknes

Banned
Oct 30, 2017
8,706
Trump is doing an especially terrible job right now.

Between COVID and the BLM protests, I think electoral politics is taking a little bit of a backseat.
Republicans will come home when it's time.
 
Relix

Relix

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,222
Polls don't mean shit. I remember Clinton besting Trump cleanly in 2016. Ain't buying this
 
iksenpets

iksenpets

Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,490
Dallas, TX
The Arkansas poll is junk, but for the most part everything is consistent with a roughly 10-point national swing versus 2016. So yeah, Arkansas's not in play, but OH/IA/GA/TX very much are, and if the election were held today WI/PA/MI/NC/AZ would all probably have pretty safe Biden margins. Of course, there's six months for that to change, and the electoral college means things fall apart around Biden +4, so even with Biden with a lead beyond anything we've seen in the modern era, he's still a single digit shift away from a Trump minority win. (Of course, things could go the other way and Biden only gets stronger over the next few months, and in November we're talking about Texas the way we're talking about AZ now, and wondering if Biden can flip MO/IN/MS/AK, but I'm not going to dare to even think about that)
 

Deleted member 11985

User requested account closure
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Oct 27, 2017
4,168
His caretakers probably have some ace fear-mongering card up their sleeve that they're just waiting to pull until it gets closer to November.

I guess the good news is that the "caravan of immigrants" card largely failed in the 2018 midterms, so I guess there's still hope.
 
Kernel

Kernel

Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,880
Is it surprising he's losing?

Remember: "He's hurting the wrong people".

His own base is getting sick and/or dying from this Chinese hoax.
 
CJSeven

CJSeven

Member
Oct 30, 2018
776
While this will have little impact on the electoral map, there's a good chance Trump loses the popular vote by 10+ million, which will turn into quite the mandate if Biden wins.
 

Deleted member 17092

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
20,360
It's still mind boggling to me that anyone can support the fucker. It should be a damn near EC sweep for Biden given how idiotic Trump is.

It's still mind boggling to me that Reagan wiped the floor like he did other than MN. Insanity. Reagan was also a piece of shit conman and the whole damn country fell for it.
 
OP
OP

Deleted member 31923

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Pineapple Taco said:
I'll be curious to see if this is a permanent shift because of changing demographics or a response to an absolute shitheel as president.

Go vote.
Click to expand...
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I think if these margins are at least somewhat accurate and he really has lost a lot of support, it will be due to the economy and his Coronvirus response. Places like Kentucky don't have the same massive demographic changes that made states like Texas and Arizona shift left over time. And the Coranavirus is now hitting states like Florida and Texas hard whereas it was mostly bad in blue states like New York and New Jersey at the start. In the end, it will hit almost every state, with only the really sparsely populated states like Wyoming and Alaska getting spared.
 
Garlador

Garlador

Banned
Oct 30, 2017
14,131
VOTE. Don't get complacent.

But, yeah, Trump is putting a ton of money into campaigns in states that shouldn't even be in contention. He's been pouring the money in for ads in Ohio, and we're a trainwreck red state here that overwhelming voted for him. That should tell you everything.
 
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