I think 99.9% of people have already made up their minds, and so this doesn't really matter at this point, but this correct.
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Trump Campaign Canceling Ad Buys in Iowa, Ohio
- Thread starter Deadly Cyclone
- Start date
what if he is only canceling buys in states he thinks will go along with his faithless elector plan from way back last week
2020 Election Forecast
Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEightprojects.fivethirtyeight.com
This is probably why LaRose is so hell-bent on "signature match-ups" for mail-in ballots.
That's nothing, did you see the form they sent out to people to request an absentee ballot? It says "With postal delays expected, we recommend you return this form no later than October 27th 2020." That's not the recommendation for the ballot itself, but for the ballot request form. They're telling people you can wait until up to October 27th, mail in the form, they mail you the absentee ballot, you mail it in, and it will still arrive by November 3rd. Just blatantly lying to voters. I'm disabled and I was planning to vote absentee, but I just don't trust LaRose. You can bet I'll be early voting in person instead.
I wouldn't be surprised if its both. Either way, this an opening that needs to be taken advantage of.
In Florida, can confirm they're definitely focusing heavy here. I saw the same Trump ad like 3-4 times in a row watching CBS yesterday.
Its important to remember that they had weird ad buy patterns in 2016. Fuckface dominates news coverage, and really does subscribe to the view that any press is good press.
Saw and ad here in NJ yesterday that was an absolutely laughable attempt to pivot to the center.
Yeeeeah, I'm in the Cincinnati area and I feel like there's Trump signs at every other house. It would be nice if we went blue but I'm not holding my breath.
2020 Election Forecast
Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight
This is probably why LaRose is so hell-bent on "signature match-ups" for mail-in ballots.
Anecdotal, but here in central Columbus, it is very uncommon to see a Trump sign/flag. The only one I've seen is sandwiched in between a bunch of Biden sign homes.
I mean, it's Columbus.
Strategically, this makes sense. Florida is more competitive, so if he's strapped for money (yay), then it's better to focus it on something like Florida over Ohio and Iowa, which are competitive but poll better for him than Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, or Minnesota.
wat
It's a tossup. None of that is insurmountable for either candidate.
wat
It's a tossup. None of that is insurmountable for either candidate.
Yeah this broke bastard is too cheap to put money into his own campaign event if he was interested in a legitimate win for the first time
He also can't afford to lose Florida, he loses Florida and the election is over. There are some pathways with him losing PA (even if it is very unlikely).
Strategically, this makes sense. Florida is more competitive, so if he's strapped for money (yay), then it's better to focus it on something like Florida over Ohio and Iowa, which are competitive but poll better for him than Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, or Minnesota.
wat
It's a tossup. None of that is insurmountable for either candidate.
Sorry I meant Iowa. I don't know why I ALWAYS interchange the two
when are they even mailing the ballots themselves? i'm still getting the pre-filled out ones from the election board. i sent mine in three weeks ago.
I'm also in Northeast Ohio and this has been my experience so far as well and by a decent margin in Biden's favor this year.
This is great to hear, because in my neck of the woods (southeast central Ohio) you barely see any Biden signs.
His lead's not insurmountable there either.
But as I said (and probably is part of the point you're getting at), it makes sense to spend more on Florida than Iowa given the polling and electoral votes.
Still, if he's as cash-strapped as it seems, it may still be troublesome for him that he can't keep the ads up in Iowa/Ohio considering he's not running away with it. But I'm not sure how often this happens.
Dennis Quaid gonna do it for free, live from up Trumps butt. Its Innerspace 2
Yes, the plan to use the supreme court to throw out as many votes as possible has already started.
Slow down the mail -> Discard any votes that arrive late was always the plan, and now it's being carried out.
Yeah. its going to a rough night for them. I saw the 5 38 stuff and he needs to win PA in every scenario but one. the other scenario? he has to win arizona lmao.
If he loses PA, its pretty much over.
2020 Election Forecast
Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight
forecast here. See PA in all but one scenario.
Yeah. its going to a rough night for them. I saw the 5 38 stuff and he needs to win PA in every scenario but one. the other scenario? he has to win arizona lmao.
If he loses PA, its pretty much over.
2020 Election Forecast
Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight
forecast here. See PA in all but one scenario.
A lot of the models show Biden taking FL.
Is that even possible?
Is it even possible for a person that has been ahead for five months to win a state? Is that what you're asking?
If Trump won Florida by 2 points last time, and Biden is doing about five points better than Hillary ended up doing, then he should be ahead in Florida by a few points, which he is.
I think people already know who they prefer, but it helps with getting people to actually vote. No ads for Trump and tons for Biden could make Trump leaners think there's no point to voting so they stay home.
As someone who lives in Ohio (maybe you do too?) I kinda doubt it. Ohio is Trumpland.
They're both within the margin of error, with Trump leading in Iowa and behind in Ohio.
I mean, polls suggest otherwise this election. I can't call the state of Maine Trumpland just because of where I live.
He's likely to lose this state by 10-12 points, and very possibly might lose CD2 (Northern Maine), which seemed impossible to me until the polling started showing up.