Thought it was shockingly low at first but played is why, TLoU 1 probably has 30-40+ million total players.
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Troy Baker: They (Sony) anticipated TLoU Part II to have a 15-20% conversion rate from the first game. (15-20% is very high for Sony)
- Thread starter Nightengale
- Start date
I'm totally confident that Witcher 3's conversion rate is a rounding error away from 0%.
Easy, they watch their favorite youtubers and streamers play through the game.
Plus it's not like it's a 60 hours game so it's not hard to catch up.
Hm, good reasoning, but I don't think the comparison with Witcher 3 holds up as the previous games are not available on the same platform.
TLOU though has a total player count on PS4 of 30m (via gamstat).
That would mean that ~25% of all PS4 owners have played TLoU!
Assuming those people only make up 15-20% of TLOU2s audience would mean that people who have never played TLoU are more likely to purchase TLOU2 than people who played Part I.
That seems ridiculous.
On topic, Alanah Pearce made an interesting point right after:
Dedicating thirty hours non-stop to anything, in a matter of days, borders on addiction. It's also an easy way to ruin the experience for you, doesn't matter how long you've been expecting it.
Yeah, but you imagine majority lf people who like the first game, will buy the 2nd game, right? So only 15% who buy 1st game will buy part 2 sounds crazy
Yeah, the more i think about it, the less any of this makes sense.
Troy made 2 statements that conflict with one another - i assumed his description of "conversion" rate was the issue, because of the "80% of people playing TLOU2 are new to the series" statement, which sounds somewhat plausible.
But when you crunch the numbers like that (TLOU1's huge install base), that doesn't seem like it'd work out.
What i'm saying is: This thread is confusing, and i think Mr. Baker's just as confused as we are 😉
Well, 7 years are quite a long time, and most of that drop-off might not be due to people giving up on the series per se, but rather giving up on gaming (or story heavy single player games) altogether. Like, if you were in college when TLOU1 was big, you might have a family and kids now, and you can't really make the time to play a 20 hour game that requires prolonged sessions of full attention to really get you immersed.
My brother in law, nowadays, only plays 2 games anymore - the most recent NBA game and the most recent FIFA. That's it.
Why is this surprising? Go look at your trophy list or achievements and game library. For each title you own, did you play the previous game in the series? And the sequel?
Do you really buy the previous title or sequel to every game you play? I'm going to bet you do! For MAYBE 25% of your games. And you're likely a core gamer, as you're here. The platform-wide average HAS to be lower. I've hated 3 of the last 5 games I played. HATED. Guess who isn't buying the sequels?
I'm one of them. I bought the first one and have no plans to buy the second. I have a PS3, but not a PS4. But even when I get my PS5 I won't buy it. Didn't like the first, hate stealth, hate realistic violence. Can't play everything. /shrug Listened to all the spoiler casts and reviews though. Fascinating game. Sounds amazingly crafted. Great inteviews with Neil and the cast and all. Zero desire to play it.
Do you really buy the previous title or sequel to every game you play? I'm going to bet you do! For MAYBE 25% of your games. And you're likely a core gamer, as you're here. The platform-wide average HAS to be lower. I've hated 3 of the last 5 games I played. HATED. Guess who isn't buying the sequels?
I'm one of them. I bought the first one and have no plans to buy the second. I have a PS3, but not a PS4. But even when I get my PS5 I won't buy it. Didn't like the first, hate stealth, hate realistic violence. Can't play everything. /shrug Listened to all the spoiler casts and reviews though. Fascinating game. Sounds amazingly crafted. Great inteviews with Neil and the cast and all. Zero desire to play it.
Do they consider people who might have watched a playthough all the way back in the PS3 era? I could see them actually jumping on the sequel without having played the first one.
Could also be people trying to go through the game asap to avoid spoilers or join in on the current conversation (or hate) about the game. Its a hot topic and everyone wants in on it one way or the other.
I think you underestimate how much data companies like Sony have on their audience. All you'd need is a person's account details to know this, and I doubt that many people completely abandon their old accounts for new ones.
Tracking this would be incredibly easy where I work and I assume it would be the same for PlayStation.
In part, it might be, yes. Though you still need the will and time to pull it off. I know I couldn't do it, but as always, everybody is free to choose differently.
You are reading it wrong. It means out of say 10mil tlou2 players only 2mil have played tlou1. So to apply on botw. If botw2 players are at 10mil then maybe 2mil of those have played botw.
Unbox Therapy has 17+ youtube subscribers. Doesnt really play games. Plans on playing this game. Seems every unlikely to play the first game.
The most common, according to the research, is The Time Filler, with 27%. This persona plays games to pass the time, when they have time, and rarely touch PC games. Ironically, the least represented is The Conventional Player (9%). These gamers own "tons" of gaming hardware and would rather spend time playing games than watching other people play.
God of War probably the first of the series most buyers played.
The most common, according to the research, is The Time Filler, with 27%. This persona plays games to pass the time, when they have time, and rarely touch PC games. Ironically, the least represented is The Conventional Player (9%). These gamers own "tons" of gaming hardware and would rather spend time playing games than watching other people play.
God of War probably the first of the series most buyers played.
That doesn't make any sense at all, it's a story driven game from a beloved masterpiece, I'm sure more people that are playing TLoU2 have already played the first one.
That makes sense. 7 years between entries is a lot, especially if franchise is narrative focused.
OP
OP
I think 'conversion rate' is a bit of a blunt instrument to determine how people will engage with your sequel's narrative and characters. The current media landscape is so over-saturated with information and commentary that even if you have not played a previous game, you'll likely get brought up to speed quickly by the discourse, YouTube summaries, articles on gaming sites etc.
And if you veer away from the prequel and world building to on-board newcomers, your original fanbase will make so much noise it'll affect the experience and behaviour of the new audience too.
I hope developers aren't looking at these numbers and thinking that every game should be like Mass Effect 3, which was touted as 'a perfect entrypoint for new players' because they were scared of people not wanting to play a sequel to games they hadn't played.
And if you veer away from the prequel and world building to on-board newcomers, your original fanbase will make so much noise it'll affect the experience and behaviour of the new audience too.
I hope developers aren't looking at these numbers and thinking that every game should be like Mass Effect 3, which was touted as 'a perfect entrypoint for new players' because they were scared of people not wanting to play a sequel to games they hadn't played.
Combined (PS3+PS4) it's close to 20M.
Or even higher now, TLOU Remastered is still selling:
UK June
Japan last week (and this is 2nd edition - aka Greatest Hits)
There are mad people who buy into sequels because of what they heard
Think about how many people whose first Resident Evil game was RE4.
Even this generation, we've seen huge games that are sequels to story-driven games that have huge first-timer playerbases. The Witcher 3, God of War 2018, Kingdom Hearts 3, Dark Souls 3. I think Ratchet & Clank on the PS5 will be another game like that.
A good, but weird, way of thinking about it is just basic probability. Let's say 20 million people in the world bought The Last of Us Part 1. Meanwhile, 100 million people own PS4s. Which group of people are you more likely to sell copies to? By the sheer difference in population, you are far more likely to sell the game to one of the 100 million PS4 owners than you are the 20 million players of the first game. You will sell to both, obviously, but your biggest audience is the uninitiated.
Even this generation, we've seen huge games that are sequels to story-driven games that have huge first-timer playerbases. The Witcher 3, God of War 2018, Kingdom Hearts 3, Dark Souls 3. I think Ratchet & Clank on the PS5 will be another game like that.
A good, but weird, way of thinking about it is just basic probability. Let's say 20 million people in the world bought The Last of Us Part 1. Meanwhile, 100 million people own PS4s. Which group of people are you more likely to sell copies to? By the sheer difference in population, you are far more likely to sell the game to one of the 100 million PS4 owners than you are the 20 million players of the first game. You will sell to both, obviously, but your biggest audience is the uninitiated.
Yeah that's the standard usage. I'm not familiar with console biz terminology so I can't tell if Troy is even using it correctly here. But side note, this also reeks of proprietary information and is a good reminder of why you should never spill the beans to talent. Seems like they can't keep their mouths shut.
This is why you don't get sequels to games that aren't massive hits first time out. 80% of the players have stopped playing games by the time you make a sequel so you have to sell it to a whole new audience.
I think this projection is based on PS3 sales of the original, not the PS4 remaster. And thus it makes sense IMO. I'll parrot/paraphrase something I heard on the GameIndustry.biz podcast this week; the industry assumes we're still in high school in terms of our free time and disposable money.
So I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that a lot of people who played games then no longer do or just don't nearly as much as they used to.
So I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that a lot of people who played games then no longer do or just don't nearly as much as they used to.
This ^
Sony has logged in data from accounts
With the PS4 they have the data of each user IP, Location
They will have users data from their mobile via device id , with the APP data and the cookie data
They also might be working with 3rd Party DMP
to conclude these numbers
Most people don't finish games, I didn't finish TLoU and won't be picking up 2. Getting players to finish your games is hard enough, let alone finish it and be interested in a sequel. Their completion rate on Remasteted was astounding at 50% but that's basically half your user base already not super interested in returning to a sequel.
It's not all that surprising to think the majority of players are a new wave of players when the original launched on a different console 7 years ago and the core age group is an entirely new wave of consumers.
It's not all that surprising to think the majority of players are a new wave of players when the original launched on a different console 7 years ago and the core age group is an entirely new wave of consumers.
I mean every year you have a bunch of people new to gaming and others that have stopped gaming. So this whole conversion rate for games in general being so low is not surprising.
Like BotW must have a huge number of people that have yet to play a single other Zelda game. Same with GTAV.
Like BotW must have a huge number of people that have yet to play a single other Zelda game. Same with GTAV.
While interesting....this seems like something Troy shouldn't be talking about or even know to be honest. But yeah it makes sense, didn't Sony themselves say earlier in the gen that a lot of PS4 owners hadn't been PS3 owners? That lines up.
This just shows once again the massive bubble Resetera (and other people who consider themselves gamers) is in. I remember a discussion a couple of weeks ago where I was called crazy for saying people buying both versions of a Pokémon release are a small subsection of a subsection of the average playerbase.
The average, and I mean the real average, person who buys videogames only buys a few games a year and hardly ever finishes them. They are the hundreds of thousands of people who are still keeping GTA 5 in the monthly best seller charts and the millions that are on the other side of that "3% of people got the trophy/achievement for finishing the game". They don't keep up with gaming news, they maybe sometimes read a review and may have seen a stream of the most popular streamers out there. They don't care about resolution or frames per second. They don't double dip or care which virtual store a game is sold in. They probably got a console when it was on sale with 2 or 3 games and then forgot about it and chances are high those games are madden, fifa, call of duty, gta or a Nintendo franchise.
They probably care about playing the last us before starting part 2 as much as you do watching Mamma Mia before Mamma Mia 2.
I think its good to keep these things in the back of our minds when discussing videogames and the videogame industry if you care about understanding why video game companies do the things they do because too often things here are being discussed while looking at it through this lens that is not shared by the grand majority of the audience or the companies that make games.
The average, and I mean the real average, person who buys videogames only buys a few games a year and hardly ever finishes them. They are the hundreds of thousands of people who are still keeping GTA 5 in the monthly best seller charts and the millions that are on the other side of that "3% of people got the trophy/achievement for finishing the game". They don't keep up with gaming news, they maybe sometimes read a review and may have seen a stream of the most popular streamers out there. They don't care about resolution or frames per second. They don't double dip or care which virtual store a game is sold in. They probably got a console when it was on sale with 2 or 3 games and then forgot about it and chances are high those games are madden, fifa, call of duty, gta or a Nintendo franchise.
They probably care about playing the last us before starting part 2 as much as you do watching Mamma Mia before Mamma Mia 2.
I think its good to keep these things in the back of our minds when discussing videogames and the videogame industry if you care about understanding why video game companies do the things they do because too often things here are being discussed while looking at it through this lens that is not shared by the grand majority of the audience or the companies that make games.
That doesn't make sense. They would have to find the box with the surname of the buyer in thousands of boxes instead of just printing a new shipping label and put it on a unlabeled box.
Well that debunks the theory that HZD is only getting released on PC to hook people into buying a PS5 for Horizon 2.
This isn't surprising at all. Also, "conversion rate" is a correct term that can be used here, as Sony wants to convert Last of Us Part 1 owners into Last of Us Part 2 owners.
Don't forget - If Sony expects the game to sell 10+ million, expecting 1.5-2 million of that to have played the first is perfectly in line with thinking. If the game is cross-gen and goes to 20+ million like its predecessor, that number climbs higher as well.
This is a good example of why most modern sequels recap events of the previous games, quite a bit of their player base never played the previous game. It's also a good example of why remakes and remasters remain popular - If you are making the next game in the franchise, or even thinking about it, getting a remaster/remake of the first game out there makes total sense since you can track how the market and your playerbase demographics have changed since the initial release.
This also ties into why the MCU has been so successful - Yes, it is a whole bunch of stories strung together, but the way in which Marvel chooses to tell the story means that anyone could jump on with any movie and the plot will do a mostly decent job of how the characters got to the beginning of the movie and where the characters will be going by the end of it.
Don't forget - If Sony expects the game to sell 10+ million, expecting 1.5-2 million of that to have played the first is perfectly in line with thinking. If the game is cross-gen and goes to 20+ million like its predecessor, that number climbs higher as well.
This is a good example of why most modern sequels recap events of the previous games, quite a bit of their player base never played the previous game. It's also a good example of why remakes and remasters remain popular - If you are making the next game in the franchise, or even thinking about it, getting a remaster/remake of the first game out there makes total sense since you can track how the market and your playerbase demographics have changed since the initial release.
This also ties into why the MCU has been so successful - Yes, it is a whole bunch of stories strung together, but the way in which Marvel chooses to tell the story means that anyone could jump on with any movie and the plot will do a mostly decent job of how the characters got to the beginning of the movie and where the characters will be going by the end of it.
Combined (PS3+PS4) it's close to 20M.
Or even higher now, TLOU Remastered is still selling:
Troy's numbers seem a bit low but this graph tells the core point perfectly. Approximately 1/3 to 1/2 of God of War 3's audience hadn't played God of War 2. And the same happened with GoW 2018. And with UC4.
A huge portion of the player base is coming in not having played the previous game.
Yup, and even if the sales were equal (same entry #1 sold 10 million and entry #2 sold 10 million) - A good portion/most of the players between entry #1 and entry #2 will be different.
Most sequels are 3-5 years apart, the people playing them will be different!
