Time: "Sweden's Relaxed Approach to the Coronavirus Could Already Be Backfiring"

Sqrt · Apr 14, 2020

As many public spaces throughout Europe empty out—with citizens only leaving home for essential groceries or medication—life in Sweden is carrying on, mostly as usual. Children walk to school while adults meet up for dinner at their local bar. Only the vulnerable have been advised to isolate and some are working from home. Yet in Sweden, where there are 9,141 confirmed cases and 793 people have died, experts worry weaker measures may be leading to a more severe outbreak in the country of just 10 million citizens.

Sweden has a relatively high case fatality rate: as of April 8, 7.68% of the Swedes who have tested positive for COVID-19 have died of the virus. Neighboring countries, like Norway and Denmark, have case fatality rates of 1.46% and 3.85% respectively. (The U.S. case fatality rate is 3.21%.) While Sweden's elevated case fatality rate could be a result of its low testing rates compared to its neighbors, experts say Sweden's laissez-faire approach could also be to blame.

Anders Tegnell, Sweden's chief epidemiologist overseeing the government's response to COVID-19 has said the government should allow the virus to spread slowly through the population, an approach initially employed by the United Kingdom and the Netherlands before both countries rapidly changed strategy amid mounting evidence that this approach would still overburden health care systems. Tegnell told Swedish TV on April 5 that COVID-19 could be stopped by "herd immunity or a combination of immunity and vaccination." (A vaccine for COVID-19 is likely at least 14 months away.)

A head doctor at a major hospital in Sweden says the current approach will "probably end in a historical massacre." He says healthcare workers at his hospital who have tested positive for the virus but are asymptomatic have been advised to continue working. He asked to remain anonymous because "it is frowned upon to speak of the epidemic or to go against the official vision" but said he felt a need to speak out from an "ethical and medical point of view."

Sweden's Relaxed Approach to the Coronavirus Could Be Backfiring

The Nordic country has a much higher fatality rate than its neighbors

time.com

Does this rings true, Sweden-Era?

Fat4all · Apr 14, 2020

Lonely1 said:
Does this rings true, Sweden-Era?

the title of this OT:

Sweden COVID-19 Discussion COVID

I didn't see this discussed or addressed at all, but I'm wondering why Sweden is not doing much about the corona virus despite everyone else taking drastic but necessary measures. In my experience, the country is usually a wealthy, happy, and generally sensible society that at least takes care...

www.resetera.com

used to be sommit along the lines of "why isn't sweden taking covid as seriously as other countries"

Deleted member 11637 · Apr 14, 2020

A head doctor at a major hospital in Sweden says the current approach will "probably end in a historical massacre." He says healthcare workers at his hospital who have tested positive for the virus but are asymptomatic have been advised to continue working. He asked to remain anonymous because "it is frowned upon to speak of the epidemic or to go against the official vision" but said he felt a need to speak out from an "ethical and medical point of view."

Uuuuuuuuuuhhhhhh...

So glad my parents are in Oslo; that seems about as safe a place as any right now.

Lulu · Apr 14, 2020

My girl's family lives out in the boonies, she's too concerned about her or her family but seems concerned shit will start to really pop off in the more dense areas.

Wok · Apr 14, 2020

It is too soon to tell what the best approach should be. For instance, in France, there has been a lockdown for a month now, and the lockdown is planned to last another month, but what happens afterwards? On May 11, people are going back to work (except cafés and restaurants remain closed), and children go back to school (only universities will remain closed), which could destroy the effects of the lockdown. A vaccine won't be ready by then, we are likely to wait for one till 2021. As for herd immunity, it won't be achieved in a month, even more so with the ongoing lockdown. Currently, estimates are that less than 10% of French people have been infected, and herd immunity is assumed to require about 60%. Basically, the lockdown saves lives by preventing the number of critical cases to reach (and overflow) the saturation point of our health system, but then how do we manage the situation in the long term?

Alvar · Apr 14, 2020

Fatality rates are bullshit since testing and death reporting differs between countries.

I have a hard time believing swedish doctors would be afraid to speak up, does not realy work that way here.

Odrion · Apr 14, 2020

lmao "relaxed approach." I wish I could use that phrase whenever I neglect my responsibilities and get away with it

XR. · Apr 14, 2020

"it is frowned upon to speak of the epidemic or to go against the official vision" sounds really odd to me. That has not been the case at all from my view. Every single person I know are staying home and/or working from home if possible and a lot of kids are staying home from school, but no one's batting an eye. It's a lockdown as far as I'm concerned. The only thing they're showing on TV is related to COVID-19; with ongoing discussions, debates and announcements. There have been plenty of critique for the decisions made by the Public Health Agency as well as the government. It's not controversial in the least.

I can't speak for the environment these doctors are dealing with, but this is not the sentiment I've been getting at all. At the end of the day it's an enormously difficult task where no one sits on the answer, I don't get why some people pretend there's one ultimate solution we all should be adhering to.

Infinity Times Two · Apr 14, 2020

One reason Sweden has higher fatality rate, is that there was a very unfortunate branch of spread within the elderly care.

There will be ample opportunity to look back and see if the strategy was a success or not, but for now, as a swede, I trust Tegnell and FHM (our CDC)s judgement.

blitzblake · Apr 14, 2020

Infinity Times Two said:
One reason Sweden has higher fatality rate, is that there was a very unfortunate branch of spread within the elderly care.

There will be ample opportunity to look back and see if the strategy was a success or not, but for now, as a swede, I trust Tegnell and FHM (our CDC)s judgement.

What's your governments justification for not doing anything during a global pandemic ?

I also wonder if you'd change your tune if someone you loved had died from something avoidable..

Deleted member 1476 · Apr 14, 2020

Fat4all said:
the title of this OT:

Sweden COVID-19 Discussion COVID

I didn't see this discussed or addressed at all, but I'm wondering why Sweden is not doing much about the corona virus despite everyone else taking drastic but necessary measures. In my experience, the country is usually a wealthy, happy, and generally sensible society that at least takes care...

www.resetera.com

used to be sommit along the lines of "why isn't sweden taking covid as seriously as other countries"

Thread is pure Iraqi Minister and Naked Gun gif all the way through.

"We're just peaking early"

Infinity Times Two · Apr 14, 2020

blitzblake said:
What's your governments justification for not doing anything during a global pandemic ?
I also wonder if you'd change your tune if someone you loved had died from something avoidable..

There is lots being done even if it's not a nationwide lockdown. For example, economic incentives to staying home.

The justification for the strategy is to flatten the curve and making sure that healthcare institutions are not overwhelmed. From the press briefings from FHM, they are doing just that. They are not focusing on containment, they are playing the game of herd immunity and focusing on the most vulnerable.

Last question is stupid.

ZeldaGalaxy94 · Apr 14, 2020

Other reason Sweden have many tested positive is also because foreign born sweds are overrepresented in the "tested positive" statistics.

Some of those communitys have complained that they aren't getting enough information in their languages, so they may do business as usual, without the social distans and all.

Utlandsfödda klart överrepresenterade i coronastatistiken

1033 människor har nu bekräftats avlidna i Sverige av covid-19. Det är 114 fler dödsfall sen i går och den eftersläpande redovisningen gör att fallen lär fortsätta att öka. I dag presenterades ocks...

www.tv4.se

Euler · Apr 15, 2020

Maintenance said:
Thread is pure Iraqi Minister and Naked Gun gif all the way through.

"We're just peaking early"

???

Maybe try to check reality before you make a dumb drive-by post

Official stats for deaths per day. There is some after-reporting naturally so I wouldn't look at the last two days yet, they will be higher than shown.
Sure doesn't seem to be exponentially increasing though.

fontguy · Apr 15, 2020

ItchyTasty · Apr 15, 2020

blitzblake said:
What's your governments justification for not doing anything during a global pandemic ?

I also wonder if you'd change your tune if someone you loved had died from something avoidable..

They are doing stuff, just about everything that I har signed up for this spring and Summer has been cancelled. I hardly see anyone anymore since all my university studies moved online. I lost my part-time work since hotels and restaurants are doing terrible right now.

They also changed so that it's easier to get paid sick leave for 2 weeks without a doctors note, they encourage people who can to work from home and today they revealed a new budget proposal to help battle the economical crisis.

While it's true that we don't have an enforced full lockdown, I think that the narrative that Sweden carries on with business as usual is ridiculously false.

hydrophilic attack · Apr 15, 2020

That article is sensationalist af and out of date, published almost a week ago

JoRu · Apr 15, 2020

Current state is that the number of cases have decreased enough days now that it's become a trend (the trend can obviously change, but it's cause for cautious optimism) and that the number of people in intensive care is very stable and has been for a very long time. Hospitals are strained, but even in the most affected areas they have capacity left.

The inability to keep the disease away from elderly care has been a failure, but it feels more like it's rooted in how our elderly care has been built up over a long period of time rather than a failure in how the epidemic has been handled in of itself. In most other aspects Sweden is currently doing well.

Deleted member 13328 · Apr 15, 2020

I think most Swedish people rather skip threads like this, at least I rather not say much, otherwise people will just jump down my throat.

The only thing I'll say is that life does not go on like usual here, thats totaly false.

Nivash · Apr 15, 2020

JoRu said:
Current state is that the number of cases have decreased enough days now that it's become a trend (the trend can obviously change, but it's cause for cautious optimism) and that the number of people in intensive care is very stable and has been for a very long time. Hospitals are strained, but even in the most affected areas they have capacity left.

The inability to keep the disease away from elderly care has been a failure, but it feels more like it's rooted in how our elderly care has been built up over a long period of time rather than a failure in how the epidemic has been handled in of itself. In most other aspects Sweden is currently doing well.

It's not a uniquely Swedish issue though. Also from Time:

Figures Show Hundreds of COVID-19 Deaths in U.K. Nursing Homes

Official statistics showed hundreds more people with COVID-19 have died than are recorded in the U.K. government’s total

time.com

Simply put, it's difficult to completely shield care homes from COVID. Many or even most care homes in Sweden already had bans on visits by the middle of March. It still got inside, most likely through staff. Many infected people don't recognise that they're infectious early on because symptoms can be mild, and once an infection gets into a home, it takes root and spreads rapidly between the residents.

Sweden is also one of a number of countries that actually report deaths in care homes in its COVID death statistic. Not all do. Not all test care home residents.

Half of coronavirus deaths happen in care homes, data from EU suggests

Figures from Italy, Spain, France, Ireland and Belgium suggest UK may be underestimating care sector deaths

www.theguardian.com

excelsiorlef · Apr 15, 2020

hydrophilic attack said:
That article is sensationalist af and out of date, published almost a week ago

Healthy students who have been kept out of school by anxious parents have been threatened with referral to social services, while concerned families and school staff have written open letters describing the government's policy as "unacceptable" and arguing that it is "risking the lives of children, relatives and staff".

In one letter published last week in Aftonbladet newspaper, more than 900 teachers and school staff said it was impossible for schools and daycare facilities to observe physical distancing recommendations, adding that "in many cases" children with infected family members had obeyed instructions to attend school, meaning "we are not able to protect children and educators in at-risk groups".

1200 dead now too

Critics question Swedish approach as coronavirus death toll reaches 1,000

Scientists question light-touch tactics as other Nordic countries record lower death rates

www.theguardian.com

Threatening social services on scared parents... but won't close down the bars.

Achire · Apr 15, 2020

Well, we've all laughed at English exceptionalism for the past four years. I give you Swedish exceptionalism. It's different, but just as fucking dumb.

Mackenzie · Apr 15, 2020

Infinity Times Two said:
One reason Sweden has higher fatality rate, is that there was a very unfortunate branch of spread within the elderly care.

There will be ample opportunity to look back and see if the strategy was a success or not, but for now, as a swede, I trust Tegnell and FHM (our CDC)s judgement.

As someone living in a country whose government is pretending not to follow the same strategy, but is.... good luck with that intentional genocide you're undergoing to save the rich.

Retsudo · Apr 15, 2020

Looking from a country with a similar population (Portugal), I think the Swedish are playing this wrong. We have almost double the confirmed cases, and yet, have about 200 less dead.

I don't know enough about the daily life right now in Sweden, but just looking at the numbers they are gonna be fucked.

hydrophilic attack · Apr 15, 2020

excelsiorlef said:
1200 dead now too

Critics question Swedish approach as coronavirus death toll reaches 1,000

Scientists question light-touch tactics as other Nordic countries record lower death rates

www.theguardian.com

Threatening social services on scared parents... but won't close down the bars.

Yes, we have laws that mandate that children have a right to schooling. It's there to protect children from various kinds of abuse from their families (drug-related, religious and so on). It's a system that is a bit unique to Sweden and may be difficult for non-Swedes to understand. We don't tolerate shit like homeschooling.

My sister works in a school and as soon as any symptoms are displayed, however minor, children are immediately sent home.

And yes, the OP article is out of date, and in disagreement with the latest data (posted by others itt) that show a leveling off or even decline in number od deaths. The thread should frankly be closed for spreading misinformation

Deleted member 8683 · Apr 15, 2020

The situation is fine as of right now with the number of deaths seemingly plateauing and most regions not having anywhere near the same problems as Stockholm have had. Even in Stockholm the health care system isn't overwhelmed, and there are intensive-care spots available for those who need it. There are resource shortages day-by-day from what I've read but those seem to have been this far solved by quick planning, and the shortages seem less drastic since measures have been taken to ensure availability.

Info in English on what Sweden is doing and what Swedes are told they have the responsibility to do: https://www.krisinformation.se/en

excelsiorlef · Apr 15, 2020

hydrophilic attack said:
Yes, we have laws that mandate that children have a right to schooling. It's to there to protect children from various kinds of abuse from their families (drug-related, religious and so on). It's a system that is a bit unique to Sweden and may be difficult for non-Swedes to understand. We don't tolerate shit like homeschooling.

My sister works in a school and as soon as any symptoms are displayed, however minor, children are immediately sent home.

Bluntly I'm not sure how you can expect many parents to feel safe when they see the difference in reactions around the world, and then coming in with social services

JoRu · Apr 15, 2020

People keep comparing numbers as if they mean anything in this stage where different countries vary a lot in how they report and the accuracy of those reports; this goes for both confirmed cases of having the disease and death tolls. Come back in six months and we may be able to analyze this properly.

gutter_trash · Apr 15, 2020

meanwhile in Portugal

Why has Portugal not been as badly hit by COVID-19 as neighbour Spain?

Civic obedience and more time to prepare, according to one expert.

www.euronews.com

being a good patriot, obey experts' advice, respecting elders

Pinku · Apr 15, 2020

My buss to work is almost empty in the morning. Nobody celebrated easter with family, nightlife is dead etc. Not buissness as usual at all.

Retsudo said:
Looking from a country with a similar population (Portugal), I think the Swedish are playing this wrong. We have almost double the confirmed cases, and yet, have about 200 less dead.

I don't know enough about the daily life right now in Sweden, but just looking at the numbers they are gonna be fucked.

We stopped mass testing people or something. I don't think this is something to go by at all.

hydrophilic attack · Apr 15, 2020

excelsiorlef said:
Bluntly I'm not sure how you can expect many parents to feel safe when they see the difference in reactions around the world, and then coming in with social services

I want to single out a certain part of the article you linked before:

The strategy has also come under fire from some of the country's scientists. A group of 22 doctors, virologists and researchers on Tuesday criticised the health agency in an op-ed published by Dagens Nyheter newspaper.

This op-ed was the national laughing stock of the day when it turned out they were using incorrect data that they didn't bother to double check before publishing. The authors of this op-ed claimed that the rates per day and population were higher than in other countries but failed to account for the fact that what they thought were the data for three weekdays actually was the total of those weekdays PLUS the previous weekend (the death numbers from weekends are always reported with a delay). The rate of death per day and population was actually about half of what the authors claimed. They had to issue an incredibly embarrassing correction to the article (though they maintain that their arguments were still solid, even if the entire data basis for their arguments were completely debunked). It was a hugely embarrassing debacle and as scientists they should be ashamed of having signed their name onto something like that

The Nightsky · Apr 15, 2020

Sweden is doing fine. There are many ways to interpret numbers and many ways to report them, for example we don't know yet if all countries are counting deaths in the same way (very likely they are not). You could also ask why other countries are starting to open things back up if sweden's strategy is so bad. Is the fight over? No, far from it. Those other countries are likely just realizing that some measures are impossible to maintain, don't make a big difference or that curve is flattened too much (meaning you can't go back to anything resembling normal life until a looong time from now).

Retsudo · Apr 15, 2020

Pinku said:
My buss to work is almost empty in the morning. Nobody celebrated easter with family, nightlife is dead etc. Not buissness as usual at all.

We stopped mass testing people or something. I don't think this is something to go by at all.

Yeah I understand that. But seeing as numbers are the only thing I have to compare, that's what I did 😉

Lord Error · Apr 15, 2020

Looking at that graph, it appears that the number of deaths in Sweden is significantly slowing down. From the perspective of Canada, I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with the same ratio of dead / population, just stretched over a much longer period of time. For us here in Canada, the number of deaths is still trending up.

excelsiorlef · Apr 15, 2020

Lord Error said:
Looking at that graph, it appears that the number of deaths in Sweden is significantly slowing down. From the perspective of Canada, I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with the same amount of dead, just stretched over a much longer time. For us here in Canada, the number of deaths is still trending up.

Equal number would be wild given Canada's 3 times moire populated

hydrophilic attack · Apr 15, 2020

"the numbers we actually cited are, in our opinion, less important than the priniple of the developmenta we were trying to point out"

wow
such scientific
very science
wow

Horp · Apr 15, 2020

As a swede that is following this incredibly closely (of course), I have a few words:

1. The FHM (national instititute of health kinda) has failed to defend against any of the criticism leveraged against them by many, many experts in the field. I'm not even saying they are in the wrong, technically, but they have refused to even properly reply. They brush of the criticism with a some sort of circular argument that "we're using this strategy, so that's why we're using this strategy", pretty much. It's incredibly frustrating.

2. The messaging from FHM is often unnecessarily relaxed. I get that there's a strategy in not closing down too many things (cause that has costs too), but when asked in press conferences or interviews about what the recommendations/rules are regarding completely unneeded matters, they are vague and sometimes even weirdly allowing. For example; we have this huge carneval like celebration on the last of april every year; in pretty much all major cities at ones (think St. Patricks day or something). Anders Tegnell was asked about what his take is on whether to celebrate or not and his reply was that "sure, celebrate but maybe in a smaller scale than normally." Like... no shit? How about answering "forget about it, or do it over zoom"? Same with traveling over easter. The message was, over and over, "try to limit your travels". Why not "Dont travel!"?

The thing is this, I have many friends and family, and people on my social media platforms, and many many people that appear in inteviews in media etc - that always go with the absolutely most relaxed interpretation of what FHM says. "Maybe avoid travel" becomes "Yeah maybe but maybe not". "Celebrate but maybe in a smaller scale" becomes "ok let's meet up but only 50 people". Yeah, sure, a lot people (like me) take this matter very seriously, but the problem with that is that we have essentially 50% of the population (guesstimate) that carries the isolation burden for everyone. And by gods, it's really fucking frustrating to stay locked in while at the same time seeing friends and family going out to the pub for the first summer beers etc.

Euler · Apr 15, 2020

hydrophilic attack said:
"the numbers we actually cited are, in our opinion, less important than the priniple of the developmenta we were trying to point out"

wow
such scientific
very science
wow

It's such a huge blunder.

Still it keeps being quoted in sensationalized articles. fun times

Joni · Apr 15, 2020

Channel5News said:
Uuuuuuuuuuhhhhhh...

So glad my parents are in Oslo; that seems about as safe a place as any right now.

Is something common across the world as there is a shortage on non-sick healthcare workers.

Loud Wrong · Apr 15, 2020

Death rate is meaningless without testing. It will be interesting to see how their approach plays out though.

Lord Error · Apr 15, 2020

excelsiorlef said:
Equal number would be wild given Canada's 3 times moire populated

Sorry, I meant in terms of population ratio - I edited my post. Canada already has more than 1000 dead.

astroturfing · Apr 15, 2020

hydrophilic attack said:
My sister works in a school and as soon as any symptoms are displayed, however minor, children are immediately sent home.

but thats not how the virus works.. symptomatic people are not the most infectious, asymptomatic are. they are causing all the mass death, right??

if you isolate someone after symptoms show up, you are many days/weeks late.

failgubbe · Apr 15, 2020

I mean we Swedes can play this game too.. how bout New York or Lombardy with similar population(They're more dense sure) but how is that lockdown getting along?

There isnt a fixed solution for all countries, and an indefinite lockdown(which will be the only way to stop the spread until a vaccine) can't be done without totaly destroying the economy and should ONLY be done if the health care is collapsing because then it will have an effect. Sweden is taking the "lagom" approach that will both save lives and the economy, a lockdown is still on the table but i think it's working out right now.

TheCarrotKiller · Apr 15, 2020

Trends shows that we currently are successful in flattening the curve. ICU patients in and out has stayed more or less the same for a number of days and there still is about 200 ICU beds left with more being added every day. The best focus is to prevent the ICU and hospitals from being overloaded and isolate risk groups. Both are currently being done and hopefully with today's positive numbers (less than predicted) the trend of elderly dying (in centres and at home) will halt. People over 70 are constantly recommended to stay inside.

Only looking at number of deaths shine little light on the whole situation. Sweden is probably the most relaxed and thorough country when it comes to counting number of deaths and what that figure actually represent. (As of now all patient dying which has been tested positive for corona is added to the number, regarding of how the person actually died. There also appears to be post-mortem testing on people dying at home but I'm a bit unsure about that).

So personally I would say that we are doing fine currently as our health care seems to withstand the pressure with some room to spare.

edit: I would also NOT say that our approach is done to save the economy. Sure there are a lot of factors at hand, mental health, domestic violence, unemployment rates what ever will be awful as it is and hopefully Sweden can to some extent be less burdened by them. But the current approach IS sustainable for far longer that a full lockdown. France and others are loosing restrictions and I'm keeping my thumbs that the yo-yo effect doesnt show. For sweden if the numbers stay as they are, we can ride this until autumn without too much devastation keeping the curve flat and under the ICU line

Musician · Apr 15, 2020

An hour long interview, in english, with the face of FMH (Swedish CDC) Anders Tegnell where he explains the rationale for the Swedish response to the pandemic. Interview starts at about 7.30.

Fredrik · Apr 15, 2020

Seems like outdated or false info. Things are actually starting to calm down now going by the latest official info. Less people are dying and less need intensive health care.

slates · Apr 15, 2020

It's waaaay too early to be relaxed about it

Tracygill · Apr 15, 2020

Euler said:
???

Maybe try to check reality before you make a dumb drive-by post

Official stats for deaths per day. There is some after-reporting naturally so I wouldn't look at the last two days yet, they will be higher than shown.
Sure doesn't seem to be exponentially increasing though.

Why does Worldometers show a different chart?

TheCarrotKiller · Apr 15, 2020

Tracygill said:
Why does Worldometers show a different chart?

These are readjusted to the exact day of death. Worldometer only report todays added numbers, therefore the spike after weekends as the reporting slows down during them.

StrayDog · Apr 15, 2020

I was reading about the Sweden and found out that the gov was very fond of eugenics (until 70s)... yeah the lax approach make sense now.

Compulsory sterilisation in Sweden - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Time: "Sweden's Relaxed Approach to the Coronavirus Could Already Be Backfiring"

Woke up, got a money tag, swears a lot

Deleted member 11637

Saw the truth behind the copied door

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