Let's dive into a hypothetical Chuggs scumposting scenario, only in recent memory.
Okay, so I feel like Puns is reading too much into the Vere vote for Geno.
Like I feel like his thought process is
1. Geno/Dream feels like scum and keeps trying to kill Vere
2. Vere votes for Geno
3. Vere must be trying to clear himself
And I think you could just stop at step 2 there.
I'm also not convinced Puns is scum right now. I'm surprised mafia didn't kill Vere last night because I feel like most people believe him now. Maybe they knew they weren't going to move and Vere was about to be out of tracks. Or maybe Vere is the scum (I don't think this is the case.) I dunno, the reason I voted Geno was because he never had his vote on scum. Then he ended up being scum. Now the only person left is AB who also has never been on scum aside from that one vote after Comrades role claim.
So here, he knew that Puns wasn't scum. However, if you look at the language on display, he wasn't going hard against it. That's because it benefitted him to both have Puns be lynched and be on the record as having been against said lynching.
Okay, so I have two theories.
First is just going back to AB, but now looking at it through the context of Puns being town. So let's look at how Fran acted right before he died. Fran basically scum reads AB and then votes me. When Puns calls him out on this, he states that he didn't take a vote for AB would take off. So then me, Puns, and Battou all vote AB, and when we ask Fran if he's going to vote with us, he instead scum reads town Puns and refuses to change his vote. And just why? Seriously, I can't see the long term plan for this if AB is town. He had every excuse to jump on the AB train and instead he didn't, made himself look shady, and got killed. I keep trying to think of a reason why Fran would do this besides AB being scum and I have nothing. I just don't really buy the excuse that AB hasn't been playing this smart if he is scum because that what's I thought about Geno the day before he flipped scum. My best guess is that AB is a blocker who ran out of blocks and that's why Vere didn't pick up on him when he moved. Or he stopped blocking Vere because he knew if he didn't move, Vere would think he was fine. There was no scum left for Vere to track anyway.
Second theory. And this one might be a bit of stretch and I would rather not follow up on this as long as AB is alive, but I want to get this out here in case I die. I call this the Frustrated Fran theory. Fran made it really obvious how frustrated he was by the lack of activity in the thread. What if it wasn't just the thread that Fran was mad about? What if scum chat was also mostly dead and Fran was going this mostly alone. One of his partners, Dream would of fit this description. Dream straight up didn't place a vote during EOD on day 2 when he could of saved ET, then he spent the rest of the game pretty inactive until he was replaced by Geno. If the other one is among the people replacing inactive players I think it could be Godfather. Kitsune replaced Pog, and while it didn't sell anyone, Pog put a lot of effort into scum reading Fran that seemed real. Godfather on the other hand replaced Coolest who spent most of day 2 and all of day 3 not around.
Early in this Day he offers the first attempt at directing the game towards some targets. Before then, it had been mostly discussion about the Puns flip and contextualizing it with the rest of the game. This is the first one that takes the step of suggesting active scum. That isn't a tell on it's own, however, let's continue with the discussion.
You and AB have claimed vanilla town, Godfather claimed the double lynch dude (Does his role have a name?) and Vere claimed tracker. So either someone is lying or Worthy and Monkey are scum. Or I guess I could be scum, but I don't think I'm scum.
This one is a response to my own quoting. I still think he's burying the lede here. In a sense, it can make him look more Town if he's the one to bring up the possibility and deny it, but by even drawing attention to it in the first place it means it's something he's worried about other people getting to first.
Don't read too much into it lol. It's not really reliable at this point, but Veres track on me was accurate. If I am scum and we're all convinced AB is town at this point, then scum Fran tried really hard to kill his scum buddy instead of jumping on the AB train which honestly would of been the better play then.
This is his response to me bringing that fact up earlier in the thread. Again, Chuggs is burying the lede
: Scum will absolutely vote for other scum to make themselves seem town. To insinuate this doesn't happen is a Tell in my books.
Oh, so mafia can't kill him. Well that's real useful if he's actually town.
So we have
Me, Kitsune, and AB claiming vanilla
Worthy claiming BP (I believe this)
Monkey claiming gossip (I believe this too)
Vere claiming tracker (I think I 95% believe this)
Godfather claiming double lynch (He obviously had this power. Still up in the air if he has more)
So assuming Vere is telling the truth, we have a blocker floating around that's obviously not claiming.
I find it interesting that a lot of this talk is predicated on Vere being correct. Pushing this could lead Chuggs to determine a non-scum target.
Monkey: it's because other people are backing up your claim.
Worthy: I guess it depends if Apo backs it up if he ever gets around to telling us about the no kill rule, but that seems pretty bold to lie about.
Vere: I guess I've been wondering if he is a tracker but it's a scum role? I don't know how likely it is, but I'm pretty sure this isn't the case. No one that he's tracked has disputed anything he's said so that helps.
I'm leaning Kitsune right now. Aside from that giant Pog post that sold no one, neither of them have done anything that screames town to me I guess. I'm going to look at the voting history of her and Pog.
Chuggs is directing the fire towards others in ways that shields himself. He thinks that him bringing it up in the first place shields him; and now he's trying to bury the lead further by shifting the focus.
I don't have a clear scum lean on anyone what the fuck is happening
Projecting confusion is good for scum. If you keep Town squabbling among themselves they can easily be made to target someone late Day when a decision has to be made.
I'm going to count the people who have been on scum lynchs. Not going to count Sparks vote after the role claim though
Me: 2
Vere: 2
AB: 0
TWE: 3
Monkey: 2
Kitsune: 1
Godfather: 2
So yeah, it's kind of hard to tell much from this because the only one that has none we're pretty sure is town.
It feels like he's directing everything towards me as if he's floating the idea with all of you before you commit. But he's also saying "I don't have any clear leads". In my eyes this feels like he's floating the bait and waiting for people to bite, or waiting to see who bites on who to change direction without so much as waiting a beat.
Sorry, been kind of a busy day.
I'm kind of leaning towards Kitsune for today. If I remember right, Fran never questioned my theory about everyone on the ET vote being town, and Fran basically questioned everything.
There, he was getting tired of waiting and nobody biting, so he got more assertive.
Monks asks about it.
Good morning! Why kits over TWE?
Here's my thing with Worthy. Everyone was town reading him and he's killed three scums at this point. Why set up some nonsense just to make yourself look suspicious when you can just kill another town and claim vanilla. If the no kill didn't happen and Worthy claimed vanilla, no one would be looking at him today.
Kitsune is a weird one where she seems scummy but Pog seemed town as fuck. It's like the opposite problem I had with Geno. At this point, I'm going to be voting someone who I'm town reading no matterwhat and she's the one I'm least sure on.
Chuggs is unable to elaborate on his reasons, despite floating me multiple times, implied and non-implied.
So in conclusion, Chuggs is far too cagey about something he seems dead sure about.