This is a terrible chart as others have pointed out and I also think it's general proposition is too simple to be valid. It ignores a ton of other variables that could be equally important (geographic isolation, current COVID impact, state and local government support, biggest industries, age of population, poverty levels, access to health insurance, etc.)
For example, a city like Orlando could rebound quickly due to relatively limited cases and IF the theme parks and conventions come back soon. If the Latter doesn't happen and there is a huge fall surge as expected, the city will struggle due to the high poverty rates and limited access to health insurance.
