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Tygre

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,190
Chesire, UK


At 6:23:35 p.m local time (23:39:35 UTC) two satellites will be passing directly above Pittsburgh. At least everyone hopes they will be passing, because there's a 1 in 20 chance they will be colliding.

Their relative velocity (how fast they are going compared to each other) at the time of potential impact will be 14.7 km/s. That's 33,000 mph, or 235 times faster than a head-on collision at highway speeds.

GGSE is a small sat, and weighs in at around 10lbs. IRAS is a monster at 2,300 lbs. Think Compact vs Semi and you're underestimating. This is Elephant vs Mouse. However if a mouse hit an elephant at 33,000 mph, well, that elephant probably isn't getting back up.

A direct hit could cause a huge debris cloud with hundreds if not thousands of trackable pieces, each of which will then present it's own threat of collision for years to come. The satellites are 900km up, so a lot of the debris will stick around in otherwise useful orbits. Even a glancing blow could cause significant damage and debris.


Of course there's still a 19 in 20 chance that they won't hit, and given the levels of light pollution most of Pennsylvanian-Era wont even get a decent light show even if there is a collision.

But hey, if you happen to be in Sproul State Forest or Monongahela National Forest or out in the middle of Lake Eerie with a telescope, you should probably keep an eye on the sky.


Visualisation of the satellite's paths and possible collision point:
Global light pollution map:
 

Christian

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,637
Considering how 2020 has gone thus far, odds are more likely 20 to 1. I guarantee debris lands right on my house, because why not?
 

Deleted member 14377

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
13,520
Considering how 2020 has gone thus far, odds are more likely 20 to 1. I guarantee debris lands right on my house, because why not?

source.gif
 

krae_man

Master of Balan Wonderworld
Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,633
My quick googling says both of these satellites are no longer used and are just floating junk up there now. Am I right on that?
 

Feep

Lead Designer, Iridium Studios
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
4,616
An exponential decay of our geosynch orbit into an unbreachable field of incredibly swift moving debris is the plot of more than one sci fi book and is an actual threat, so here's for rolling that d20 and not getting a 1.
 

Poltergust

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,877
Orlando, FL
If they happen to miss each other, would there be a possibility for them to collide with each other again (or anything else)?

I would've thought that satellites are launched in such a way that there wouldn't be any possibility of colliding with other orbital objects for the foreseeable future. Am I wrong on that?
 
Oct 30, 2017
1,785
If they happen to miss each other, would there be a possibility for them to collide with each other again (or anything else)?

I would've thought that satellites are launched in such a way that there wouldn't be any possibility of colliding with other orbital objects for the foreseeable future. Am I wrong on that?
More in the "there's plenty of space, out in space!" planning mindset.
 

Palantiri

Member
Oct 25, 2017
545
I only recently became aware of the Kessler Syndrome, but it now sits in the back of my mind all the time. That the potential for such an event is so far beyond my grasp does not stop me from understanding that this is a problem that our species has created and it is only thanks to people far more intelligent and invested than I that I can continue to take so many technological privleges for granted.
 

Teh_Lurv

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,109
Anyone who isn't familiar with why this collision is so worrisome should watch this video:

 

Leo

Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,571
2020 has sure been a hell of an year, and january isn't even over.

At this rate, I expect humanity to be enslaved by aliens by december.
 

lt519

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,064
An exponential decay of our geosynch orbit into an unbreachable field of incredibly swift moving debris is the plot of more than one sci fi book and is an actual threat, so here's for rolling that d20 and not getting a 1.

Roll a second die that also has to land on 1 because they increased the size of the satellites to account for unknown direction a boom is facing. 20 to 1 seems like a worst case scenario assumption.
 

kvetcha

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,835
An exponential decay of our geosynch orbit into an unbreachable field of incredibly swift moving debris is the plot of more than one sci fi book and is an actual threat, so here's for rolling that d20 and not getting a 1.

yep. Don't want a Gravity situation on our hands.
 

GaimeGuy

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
5,092
If they happen to miss each other, would there be a possibility for them to collide with each other again (or anything else)?

I would've thought that satellites are launched in such a way that there wouldn't be any possibility of colliding with other orbital objects for the foreseeable future. Am I wrong on that?
Everything with mass exerts a gravitational force.

We do not have the ability to simulate the universe and every object in it from now until the end of everything. We can't build the matrix.

Even so, the tiniest of changes or measurement errors can trigger a collision.

As an example of the level of precision we are dealing with, the Satellite clocks used for GPS are slowed down by their orbital velocity, but sped up by their distance outside of the gravitational well of the Earth, according to relativity. The discrepancy in the passage of time between GPS receivers and the GPS satellites using the exact same systems is approximately 38 microseconds per day (that's 38 millionths of a second). Unaccounted for, GPS calculations would be off by 10km by the end of the first day in orbit, by 20km by the end of the second day, 30km by the end of the 3rd day... you get the picture.
 
OP
OP
Tygre

Tygre

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,190
Chesire, UK
An exponential decay of our geosynch orbit into an unbreachable field of incredibly swift moving debris is the plot of more than one sci fi book and is an actual threat, so here's for rolling that d20 and not getting a 1.
I only recently became aware of the Kessler Syndrome, but it now sits in the back of my mind all the time. That the potential for such an event is so far beyond my grasp does not stop me from understanding that this is a problem that our species has created and it is only thanks to people far more intelligent and invested than I that I can continue to take so many technological privleges for granted.
Anyone who isn't familiar with why this collision is so worrisome should watch this video:



Kessler syndrome, as classically thought of and depicted, is a near impossibility to occur by chance. We would have to be trying to fuck up our ability to reach space in order to actually achieve the sort of runaway catastrophe envisaged.

The only reason we don't clear up our space junk right now is because it's not profitable or necessary to do so. As soon as there is profit in clearing debris (or the glorious Socialist revolution occurs and the profit motive is no longer the driving force of our society) it's a simple enough matter to start de-cluttering the skies.
 

cakely

Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,149
Chicago
An exponential decay of our geosynch orbit into an unbreachable field of incredibly swift moving debris is the plot of more than one sci fi book and is an actual threat, so here's for rolling that d20 and not getting a 1.

Well, rest assured that neither of these satellites are in geosynchronous orbit. It would make for a big debris field, though.

yep. Don't want a Gravity situation on our hands.

A "Gravity situation" meaning all laws of physics are thrown out to make a pretty-looking thriller? Gravity was gorgeous, but that movie infuriates me.

A 5% chance isn't very high. Hopefully we can have a good chuckle over this later this evening.
 

Deleted member 8561

user requested account closure
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
11,284
Kessler syndrome, as classically thought of and depicted, is a near impossibility to occur by chance. We would have to be trying to fuck up our ability to reach space in order to actually achieve the sort of runaway catastrophe envisaged.

The only reason we don't clear up our space junk right now is because it's not profitable or necessary to do so. As soon as there is profit in clearing debris (or the glorious Socialist revolution occurs and the profit motive is no longer the driving force of our society) it's a simple enough matter to start de-cluttering the skies.

Trying to pick up tiny objects flying around at 17,500 MPH, at different altitudes, different trajectories, while attempting to not get hit by other tiny objects flying around at 17,500 MPH, is not simple
 

Volimar

volunteer forum janitor
Member
Oct 25, 2017
38,929
Aside from the collision possibility, I read a twitter thread that one of the satellites is much more massive than the others and may exert an influence on the smaller satellite in ways we don't know. So slingshot maybe?
 

kvetcha

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,835
Well, rest assured that neither of these satellites are in geosynchronous orbit. It would make for a big debris field, though.



A "Gravity situation" meaning all laws of physics are thrown out to make a pretty-looking thriller? Gravity was gorgeous, but that movie infuriates me.

A 5% chance isn't very high. Hopefully we can have a good chuckle over this later this evening.

Just talkin' 'bout Kessler Syndrome.
 

Zippedpinhead

Fallen Guardian
Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,800
Shit, We don't need the moon to blow up to end up with a Bolide Fragmentation rate that will put us on the path to White Sky...

Just two satellites colliding.
 

qaopjlll

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,805
It's ok, they won't collide as long as the satellite going straight yields to the satellite making a left turn when the light turns green.
 

asmith906

Member
Oct 27, 2017
27,526
Kessler syndrome, as classically thought of and depicted, is a near impossibility to occur by chance. We would have to be trying to fuck up our ability to reach space in order to actually achieve the sort of runaway catastrophe envisaged.

The only reason we don't clear up our space junk right now is because it's not profitable or necessary to do so. As soon as there is profit in clearing debris (or the glorious Socialist revolution occurs and the profit motive is no longer the driving force of our society) it's a simple enough matter to start de-cluttering the skies.
We can't even clean up earth. I have no faith we could ever clean up space.
 

Cyanity

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,345
An exponential decay of our geosynch orbit into an unbreachable field of incredibly swift moving debris is the plot of more than one sci fi book and is an actual threat, so here's for rolling that d20 and not getting a 1.

Yea....we're kind of fucked anyway with SpaceX being given carte blanche to destroy our night sky forever
 

killerrin

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,248
Toronto
Trying to pick up tiny objects flying around at 17,500 MPH, at different altitudes, different trajectories, while attempting to not get hit by other tiny objects flying around at 17,500 MPH, is not simple
No. Which is why now you have Universities and Research Teams prototyping how they would go about it using Microsats. Running simulations and testing everthing from Harpoons to Nets to Lasers.

Meanwhile, you have technologies being put to use at NASA, JAXA, ESA, and even SpaceX/Blue Origin in actual exploration missions into Earth Orbital and Deep Solar space which have been practiced (harpooning an asteroid for example) and can easily be repurposed into a vehicle that cleans space junk.

Meanwhile even under the worst of the worst case scenarios where space is 100% locked up in every single orbit. All you have to do is wait 4-10 years for the first few layers to clean themselves up automatically through the power of physics. Upon which point we are back to safely using rockets, which we would use to send the aformentioned cleanup technologies up.
 

wossname

Member
Dec 12, 2017
1,432
No, more likely. I'd bet $20 to get $1 back, and that means the odds of it happening are better. $1 to $20 returned means the odds are unlikely, so the reward is large.

20 to 1 means you win 20 for every 1 wagered

Wait. 20 to 1 odds would make it less likely to collide than a 1 in 20 chance, right?

20/1 is a one in 21 chance, so yes it is less likely. A one in 20 chance is 19/1 odds.
 
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