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.Detective.

Member
Oct 27, 2017
9,706
The United States is averaging more than 45,000 new COVID-19 positive tests each day -- up 8 per cent from the previous week and more than double what the country was seeing in June, as lockdown restrictions were easing.

It's a case count experts warn is far too high ahead of what's forecast to be a challenging -- and deadly -- winter season. The latest U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ensemble forecast says U.S. COVID-19 deaths could reach 233,000 by the end of this month.

And projections from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation show more than 2,900 Americans could be dying daily by January.

Earlier this week, Dr. Anthony Fauci said he was "disturbed and concerned" by the country's average case count.

"That's no place to be when you're trying to get your arms around an epidemic," he said.

And as the weather gets colder, things will get tougher.

Gatherings will likely begin to move indoors, where the virus is more prone to spread. And as colleges battle outbreaks on campus, students soon returning to visit their families for the holidays could unknowingly bring the virus with them.

On top of that, it'll be coupled with flu season to create what experts say could turn into a "twin-demic." What could help, health officials have said, are flu shots and strong safety measures like masks and social distancing.

The high average case count comes alongside more worrying trends: only Alabama and Hawaii are reporting a decline of new cases over the past week, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. And nationwide, hospitalizations have begun to rise, with more than 34,000 hospitalized patients, according to the COVID Tracking Project.

At current pace, that's roughly 1.35M to 1.39 million positive cases a month. The 45k daily is essentially more than double that of back in June.

That is insane America, JFC

www.ctvnews.ca

The U.S. is reporting an average of 45,000 positive COVID-19 tests every day

The United States is averaging more than 45,000 new COVID-19 positive tests each day -- up 8 per cent from the previous week and more than double what the country was seeing in June, as lockdown restrictions were easing.
 

Nepenthe

When the music hits, you feel no pain.
Administrator
Oct 25, 2017
21,022
Republicans are just letting this happen.
 

Goddo Hando

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,755
Chicago
i think the good news is that when this comes around we have more health data on how to treat it than we did last spring, the bad news is that people are gonna be so jaded and fatigued from lockdowns, it might be harder to get people to comply
 

Strike

Member
Oct 25, 2017
27,457
Things aren't going to get any better until we get a competent government handling this. Let's just hope the Dems sweep because there's a lot of work to be done and they're going to have to hit the ground running.
 

HeyNay

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,495
Somewhere
Masks and social distancing only go so far when friends and families are still getting together indoors. My guess is this fall, families are going to host Thanksgiving as usual, with extended friends and family over with no mask wearing, and no distancing - laughing and breathing each other's air. Then, after the virus spreads even more, we'll do it all again next month during Christmas. January and February numbers are gonna be nuts.
 
OP
OP
.Detective.

.Detective.

Member
Oct 27, 2017
9,706
Minimum 2900 daily deaths is essentially 87, 000 to a little under 90, 000 per month. Any further, and it's going into the 100k range. Which is unthinkable
 

Deleted member 11626

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
4,199
I work from home and management does not mind my children in the background. But I'm incredibly worried about my wife, whose job involves contact with people.

Indiana is one of the massive risers in the country right now and literally nobody cares. I went to pick up groceries and walked past a handful of people with their masks down. We broke our state's record yesterday, and then again today.
 

Vidiot

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,471
How are you all dealing with the anxiety this all comes with? I've been trying to hold it together but it's getting harder and harder. I'm in a constant state of being on edge and it's really getting to me.
 

Xando

Member
Oct 28, 2017
27,562
Things aren't going to get any better until we get a competent government handling this. Let's just hope the Dems sweep because there's a lot of work to be done and they're going to have to hit the ground running.
The problem is even if dems get into power in january numbers will be so high they have to do a radical lockdown to get them down. 45000 cases per day aren't going down with a universal mask instruction.
 

Soda

Member
Oct 26, 2017
8,939
Dunedin, New Zealand
Masks and social distancing only go so far when friends and families are still getting together indoors. My guess is this fall, families are going to host Thanksgiving as usual, with extended friends and family over with no mask wearing, and no distancing - laughing and breathing each other's air. Then, after the virus spreads even more, we'll do it all again next month during Christmas. January and February numbers are gonna be nuts.

Yep. My partner and I have already told our families that we don't plan to visit if COVID is as bad or worse than it is now, which is basically guaranteed at this point.
 

Jokerman

Member
May 16, 2020
6,994
Isn't the president doing public events while still potentially infectious? I mean these projections can't be a surprise at this point.
 
OP
OP
.Detective.

.Detective.

Member
Oct 27, 2017
9,706
The problem is even if dems get into power in january numbers will be so high they have to do a radical lockdown to get them down. 45000 cases per day aren't going down with a universal mask instruction.

Yeah, it's much more than Trump himself, as the general US population(or at least a rather large portion of them) are either ignoring the rules or "protesting" that its impeding their "rights" to follow medically provided advice for no damn logical reason. Trump is instigating of course, but there are other factors that make this entire situation with COVID in the US a continued recipe for tragic disaster.
 

NunezL

Member
Jun 17, 2020
2,722
These projections are completly useless, I don't even know why they bother.
But the rise in cases in the last 10 days or so (and hospitalisations in the last few days) is really worrisome. We haven't seen the effect of Covid during winter in the northern hemisphere, and it could get really ugly. I expect deaths to start to climb steadily within the next week or so, just like in July.
 

Deleted member 21709

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
23,310

WolfeTone

Member
Oct 25, 2017
617
Feels like the US media has pretty much forgotten about COVID or is it just me? I know the election and Trump bs is taking up a lot of headspace but I feel like these case numbers should be a much bigger deal!
 

nopressure

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,414
I mean, what can you expect. The country has no leadership on public health policy.

Just an orange man spreading untruths and personally infecting people himself whilst actively encouraging superspreader events.
 

BFIB

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,760
Every death prior to January 20, 2021: A statistic.

Every death after January 20, 2021: A National Tragedy.
 

Xando

Member
Oct 28, 2017
27,562
A radical lockdown is the only option at this point.
I'd agree but 2 points why i have a hard time seeing dems go for it.


1) Half of the population won't do shit and i have doubts localized law enforcement will enforce a lockdown like they do in other places (like europe for example).

2) A radical lockdown would probably be the deathknell for every business that isn't large cap publicly traded company. These companies are already dying and another stay at home order is gonna be the death of them.
 
Oct 27, 2017
21,608
This reminds me I need to go get a flu shot today. I can't imagine getting COVID-19 let alone having a flu at the same time.
I just filled out Student Intent forms for my two kids, choosing between full remote learning for the rest of the year or hybrid learning with two days in class. I chose the reason as "Health Concerns" but would have chosen "Are You Fucking Kidding Me" if that had been an option.
 

alr1ght

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,092
I'm really curious how Thanksgiving and Christmas get togethers will go. I've pretty much written off visiting my parents unless we can have it outside (fat chance the weather will be nice enough).
 

Deleted member 21709

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
23,310
I'd agree but 2 points why i have a hard time seeing dems go for it.


1) Half of the population won't do shit and i have doubts localized law enforcement will enforce a lockdown like they do in other places (like europe for example).

2) A radical would probably be the deathknell for every business that isn't large cap publicly traded company. These companies are already dying and another stay at home order is gonna be the death of them.

We have to safeguard businesses (and civilians) when we do this.
Rent freeze for tennants, and tax-freeze for landlords. (For example)

Everything has been so mismanaged that I understand we blew through a lot of those funds already, such a waste. So many lives lost.
 

LProtagonist

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
7,645
Hopeful that CT shuts schools down again. I'm thankful that my district kept the high school on a hybrid plan so at least I only have 8-15 kids in class a day instead of the normal 22-24 I'd have.
 

GenTask

Member
Nov 15, 2017
2,674
It'll mutate and probably already has. The 'flu' that goes around today is literally a 4th generation evolution of the unfortunately named 'Spanish' Flu, for example, because it never actually went away and they couldn't pinpoint where it really started back then and was not fully studied. Covid being a new pandemic disease, with symptoms more similar to pneumonia of the lungs, will likely evolve and never truly go away, but mitigated to a degree with vaccines or people passing on genes with immunity to it.
 

bwahhhhh

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
3,176
These projections are completly useless, I don't even know why they bother.

my guess is they're just following typical cold/flu trends combined with the current relaxed covid guidelines. the graphs below are poll-based and not scientific but I think they generally show what we're in for.

March/April-Sept/Oct are the "valleys" of cold/flu season. Cases generally peak around Dec/Jan/Feb. The US has basically been in "easy mode" throughout most of this pandemic.

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Halbrand

Member
Oct 27, 2017
19,630
It'll mutate and probably already has. The 'flu' that goes around today is literally a 4th generation evolution of the unfortunately named 'Spanish' Flu, for example, because it never actually went away and they couldn't pinpoint where it really started back then and was not fully studied. Covid being a new pandemic disease, with symptoms more similar to pneumonia of the lungs, will likely evolve and never truly go away, but mitigated to a degree with vaccines or people passing on genes with immunity to it.
Influenza mutates way faster than this does though.
 

Violence Jack

Drive-in Mutant
Member
Oct 25, 2017
42,118
A good first step would be to stop allowing fans at football games again. I watched the as the Cowboys stadium in Dallas had a ton of unmasked people in the stands, and quite a few college games with no social distancing and no masks.

And of course, anything that Dems try to do to get in front of this will just get shouted down by the GOP even as we enter the deadliest time of the year to be getting sick.