The road to 100M Switch. How can Nintendo maintain its momentum in 2020 and beyond

CaviarMeths · Dec 4, 2019

I don't think it'll be too difficult to get there based on current trajectory. It'll be over 50m by the end of this year. If it continues with a typical console life of growth in the first few years and then slow decline, it'll get there no problem. Their strategy should be to continue releasing good games from their most popular IPs, more experimental stuff like RingFit, and increasing partnerships with 3rd parties. There will be more competition in a year due to next gen consoles, but by then Switch will already have done most of the legwork in being an established brand.

Broadening the "Switch family" is always a back-pocket option too.

Don't think they really gain anything with price cuts. Hardware revisions are the new price drops. They don't need to drop the price of the base Switch now or ever, really, since they just introduced a new model that shaves a meaty $100 off the ticket price.

Dark Cloud · Dec 4, 2019

Personablue said:
I don't think so. I think it's better for a full blown switch 2 at 2022 or 23 than a pro revision in the next 2 years

What. Why would they do that? Nintendo Switch is a handheld. They're not going 3 more years without another revision.

PillFencer · Dec 4, 2019

Personablue said:
I thought the attach rate of Wii was higher than 3DS, am I remembering wrong?

Yup, 5:1 for 3DS and 9:1 for Wii, right now Switch is at almost 6:1, which is DS territory (download only titles not included)

Strings · Dec 4, 2019

I really don't see Switch making 100m, just because it launched in an awkward position between gens, but I guess it depends on how Nintendo goes about extending its life. They're going to absolute destroy both this year and the majority of next year at the very least, since their competition are dinosaurs.

Eoin · Dec 4, 2019

Nintendo have plenty of options for keeping the Switch going. The main ones are sadly boringly obvious - things like new entries in series that haven't gotten Switch games yet, sequels to big hits, price drops, and form factor revisions.

Personablue said:
Next year they may start offering N64 games after their 2nd anniversary of online service

Sure, this is quite possible. It's borderline irrelevant to the sales future of the Switch though. N64 games might encourage a few people to subscribe to NSO but for anyone for whom the ability to play N64 games was what finally caused them to buy a Switch, they were 99.99% of the way towards that purchase already.

Personablue said:
Lastly, do you think it will have a very bad tail like the Wii?

No, for lots of reasons:

- At the end of the Wii's lifetime Nintendo had to balance support for the Wii and DS with preparing for the 3DS and Wii U. With Switch, they only have to worry about supporting one old system and preparing for one new system.

- The Wii in 2010 and 2011 was an awkward machine - having to accommodate a motion controller made it more difficult to port many games. The Switch is not in the same position. Publishers can draw on effectively their entire historical library of games.

- The Wii in 2010 and 2011 also couldn't really comfortably run many newer games. The Switch has some of that problem, but modern games are a more diverse bunch - there's a much higher proportion of indies and games that target mobile hardware. The biggest third-party games of 2010 were games like Mass Effect 2, Red Dead Redemption, Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood - stuff that the Wii couldn't run. The biggest third-party games of 2019 are games like Fortnite, GTAV, Minecraft - games that the Switch does run or could run. Missing out on stuff like Red Dead Redemption 2 isn't as big a hit to Switch now as missing RDR was to the Wii in 2010.

- Part of the reason for the Wii's initial success was that as an SD-only console it appealed to people who didn't have HDTVs and didn't think that they would be buying one. Part of the reason for the Wii's later fall in sales was that those people did end up buying HDTVs and found out exactly how badly the Wii compared, graphically, to the other systems. The Switch doesn't have that factor. As more people upgrade to 4K, they might start to feels its limitations a little more, but it's still better-suited to modern displays than the Wii was in 2010.

Deleted member 31092 · Dec 4, 2019

keidash said:
I don't see reaching 100 mil also, nextgen is coming and also many mobile services like apple arcade seem to reduce its appeal in the coming years...

On what mobile service can you play Nintendo IPs?

fourfourfun · Dec 4, 2019

Might depend on how the Chinese launch with Tencent goes.

Kemono · Dec 4, 2019

80-90 mil seems realistic.

At some point most interested in their games will have bought one. The 3ds was fantastic too but didn't come close to 100 million.

Also i don't think nintendo wants to "waste" big sellers like a new Mario Kart for a system that already had one.

Kill3r7 · Dec 4, 2019

More games and moderate price cuts. It should continue strong through 2020 and into 2021.

dabri · Dec 4, 2019

With price drops, continued great software support, and more hardware revisions, there is little reason to think the system will have a bad tail like the wii.
I see a "pro" model coming next year to help compete with new systems.
Price drop on lite and base models and sequel announcements could be around the corner.

chusetto · Dec 4, 2019

2020... Animal Crossing.
Also think that we'll get a Switch Pro with BOTW2 in Q4

Personablue · Dec 4, 2019

fourfourfun said:
Might depend on how the Chinese launch with Tencent goes.

I think that's a non factor. At max 4-5 million over 3-4 years

cw_sasuke · Dec 4, 2019

Strings said:
I really don't see Switch making 100m, just because it launched in an awkward position between gens, but I guess it depends on how Nintendo goes about extending its life. They're going to absolute destroy both this year and the majority of next year at the very least, since their competition are dinosaurs.

Do people really care about "gens" in that way ? Will a family or a gamer that wants to play Smash or Pokemon not buy a Switch because its not part of whatever gen ? Its the current Nintendo system they are selling - that all that matters.

Much more powerful mobile devices or consoles have already been on the market while Switch was putting up these numbers - will the audience interested in Switch suddenly care more about even more powerful hardware ? BotW 2 and Mario Odyssey 2 will look great either way.

Yuntu · Dec 4, 2019

Should have no problem selling with price cuts at some point and a couple bigger exclusives each year.

Indies are there, some third party, and their evergreens keep selling on top of new evergreens releasing. New revisions like a Switch Lite XL or such things can also push the needle later in its life.

Le Dude · Dec 4, 2019

Eoin said:
- The Wii in 2010 and 2011 also couldn't really comfortably run many newer games. The Switch has some of that problem, but modern games are a more diverse bunch - there's a much higher proportion of indies and games that target mobile hardware. The biggest third-party games of 2010 were games like Mass Effect 2, Red Dead Redemption, Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood - stuff that the Wii couldn't run. The biggest third-party games of 2019 are games like Fortnite, GTAV, Minecraft - games that the Switch does run or could run. Missing out on stuff like Red Dead Redemption 2 isn't as big a hit to Switch now as missing RDR was to the Wii in 2010.

This is a huge point that a lot of people miss. Fortnite, GTA V, and Minecraft are pretty much the three biggest games right now. Not a single one of them required current gen hardware, much less next generation.

Yes, there's going to be AAA games that make full use of next-gen and Switch won't be able to run them, but theres going to be tons of other third party games that don't require the latest and the greatest. As long as the sales potential for those titles is there on Switch, it will get those games.

I wouldn't be surprised if third party support remained largely the same even after next generation launches. The games that require next generation hardware will be offset by the games that don't and see ported because the Switch has proven itself to be a very successful platform.

Rosur · Dec 4, 2019

doodlewhizz said:
Post Christmas 2020 is going to be trickier for them once mindshare of new gen consoles increases markedly, but I think sequels will do the job for them (as well as the occasional oddity). I know it's been poo-pooed by some here before, but a Mario Kart 9 on the Switch could be a massive help in say 2021.

I also don't see much in the way of hardware upgrades (no Switch Pro) outside of a brand new machine in 22/23

Yeah I really think it depends how next gen consoles affect the market next year and how much it stops Switches being sold.

Sander VF · Dec 4, 2019

They are incredibly well-positioned for heavier bundling and price-cuts.

Yuntu · Dec 4, 2019

cw_sasuke said:
Do people really care about "gens" in that way ? Will a family or a gamer that wants to play Smash or Pokemon not buy a Switch because its not part of whatever gen ? Its the current Nintendo system they are selling - that all that matters.

Much more powerful mobile devices or consoles have already been on the market while Switch was putting up these numbers - will the audience interested in Switch suddenly care more about even more powerful hardware ? BotW 2 and Mario Odyssey 2 will look great either way.

They wont. Unlike the Wii the Switch isnt sucessful because of the casual mainstream audience.

If these ever go for 200 bucks or something I doubt parents will be like "ehh its an old gen lets not buy that".

Zedark · Dec 4, 2019

Kemono said:
80-90 mil seems realistic.

At some point most interested in their games will have bought one. The 3ds was fantastic too but didn't come close to 100 million.

Also i don't think nintendo wants to "waste" big sellers like a new Mario Kart for a system that already had one.

3ds required a price drop to $150 (IIRC, or was it $180?) in order to be close to as popular as Switch was (and even then is a bit below it). Switch, other other hand, maintains the option for price drops, and has a lot more possibility in that regard.

Zalman · Dec 4, 2019

They should just keep doing what they're doing. Great releases on a regular basis, smart hardware revisions. At this point it would be surprising if it didn't hit 100 million.

Pokémon · Dec 4, 2019

The only way the Switch would not reach 100 million is if Nintendo stopped providing new software (which is unlikely since it's their only device on the market) or if they discontinued and replaced it with a successor (also unlikely seeing for how they already keep the 3DS on the market).
If they are going to continue steadily releasing new software, new revisions and several price cuts it will beat the Wii lifetime sales. Now will that happen, who knows since we are talking about a scenario that's at least 3 years off.

Sander VF · Dec 4, 2019

The only way it falls short of 100 million is if the successor gets dropped earlier than anticipated and is somehow something that forces Nintendo to divert it's software efforts from the thing, rather than an iteration it logically should be.

Mbolibombo · Dec 4, 2019

100M is all but guaranteed at this point. Switch in all likelyhood will be at or around 55M units shipped at the end of the fiscal year. And as long as Nintendo continues with software support that shouldnt really be in question.

FY2020 is what I think will be the peak year in terms of sales, we're gonna see the first price cut, should dominate the console space for the bigger part of the year and it starts with a bang with Animal Crossing.

Personablue · Dec 4, 2019

Sander VF said:
They are incredibly well-positioned for heavier bundling and price-cuts.

Zalman said:
They should just keep doing what they're doing. Great releases on a regular basis, smart hardware revisions. At this point it would be surprising if it didn't hit 100 million.

pld said:
The only way the Switch would not reach 100 million is if Nintendo stopped providing new software (which is unlikely since it's their only device on the market) or if they discontinued and replaced it with a successor (also unlikely seeing for how they already keep the 3DS on the market).
If they are going to continue steadily releasing new software, new revisions and several price cuts it will beat the Wii lifetime sales. Now will that happen, who knows since we are talking about a scenario that's at least 3 years off.

Sander VF said:
The only way it falls short of 100 million is if the successor gets dropped earlier than anticipated and is somehow something that forces Nintendo to divert it's software efforts from the thing, rather than an iteration it logically should be.

Do you guys think this is the peak fiscal year for switch in terms of hardware sales?

Jannyish · Dec 4, 2019

Easy. Keep the good games coming. Personally, if they ever managed to pull off another 2017 in terms of releases, then the 100m would be locked in for me. If they don't, I'd expect at least 80-90m still.

BarryFishFinger · Dec 4, 2019

Price drops on the hardware will continue to shift it, it seems to sell well on black Friday etc.

Beyond that, software prices need to be sensible. At the moment they're often not.

DriftingSpirit · Dec 4, 2019

mazi said:
41.67M, should easily be 50+ when we get the full 2019 numbers in january next year.

Thanks

I think major software and price drops are crucial for 100M. I think the latter is iffy though. I think Nintendo would rather sell ~80M at or close to full price rather than ~100M at lower prices.

Don't check the math on that. I just used them for the example. 😛

Zalman · Dec 4, 2019

Personablue said:
Do you guys think this is the peak fiscal year for switch in terms of hardware sales?

It's hard to say since we don't know much about Nintendo's output next year. They're certainly starting off 2020 way stronger than 2019. Animal Crossing will be massive.

Bosch · Dec 4, 2019

Mario Odissey 2, BOTW 2 and a new Mario Kart will do the job

Panda Andino · Dec 4, 2019

Switch is not even three years old..

Personablue · Dec 4, 2019

Dark Cloud said:
What. Why would they do that? Nintendo Switch is a handheld. They're not going 3 more years without another revision.

Fragment the user base that Nintendo builded. There is no reason for a pro model. Switch 2 will be better for the long term. Of course that's just my opinion

cw_sasuke · Dec 4, 2019

Personablue said:
Fragment the user base that Nintendo builded. There is no reason for a pro model. Switch 2 will be better for the long term. Of course that's just my opinion

Just like DSi and n3DS + their XL variants fragmented the previous Nintendo handheld install base ? Come on ...they are all gonna play Switch games.

LukasHeinzel · Dec 4, 2019

The switch will take a similar route to the wii, but wont quite make it to 100m.

Sander VF · Dec 4, 2019

Personablue said:
Fragment the user base that Nintendo builded. There is no reason for a pro model. Switch 2 will be better for the long term. Of course that's just my opinion

These kinds of models don't fragment anything, they are additive, just like Lite is additive.

Terror-Billy · Dec 4, 2019

JamFlan said:
It'll be over 50M this year and it likely isn't even their peak year. It should be 70-75 by FY 2021 (March 2021) so unless they plan on replacing it in 2022 I can't see that happening.

On the topic as a whole, if Nintendo is serious about having the Switch on the market for 7 years then they can always put out a Mario Kart 9 and some new, novel, original and fresh take on 2D Mario. Both would be garunteed 20M+ sellers and they would sell like hotcakes in bundles.

Oh wow, I was sure this thing was at 30 million units or something. Well, yeah, it will get over 100 million then. I've personally bought 3 lol

Personablue · Dec 4, 2019

cw_sasuke said:
Just like DSi and n3DS + their XL variants fragmented the previous Nintendo handheld install base ? Come on ...they are all gonna play Switch games.

Sander VF said:
These kinds of models don't fragment anything, they are additive, just like Lite is additive.

If the switch pro is anything like PS4 pro situation, then it will definitely be a very different scenario than new 3ds or dsi

DrWong · Dec 4, 2019

The Switch will do 114M.

100M + 1% of China

Sander VF · Dec 4, 2019

Personablue said:
If the switch pro is anything like PS4 pro situation, then it will definitely be a very different scenario than new 3ds or dsi

Did PS4 Pro fragment anything? It's sales were additive and it was a net positive for PS4.

Atheerios · Dec 4, 2019

Pokémon DP
Pokémon Gen 9

And then the dream Open World Pokémon just when Switch's sales start to fall down

cw_sasuke · Dec 4, 2019

Personablue said:
If the switch pro is anything like PS4 pro situation, then it will definitely be a very different scenario than new 3ds or dsi

n3DS and DSi were even more extreme since they offered exclusive content (DSiWare, Snes VC and n3DS only games like Xenoblade) - PS4 Pro had none of that, no exclusive games or content - everything had to run on a base PS4.

Personablue · Dec 4, 2019

Atheerios said:
Pokémon DP
Pokémon Gen 9

And then the dream Open World Pokémon just when Switch's sales start to fall down

That dream Pokemon game best reserved for gen 10, 30th anniversary title , 2026, switch 2

TubaZef · Dec 4, 2019

Yearly pokemon games should do the trick

Personablue · Dec 4, 2019

Also 10% people believe it will sell less than 80M? Why? It will be 55M by March 2020.

TubaZef · Dec 4, 2019

Eoin said:
- The Wii in 2010 and 2011 was an awkward machine - having to accommodate a motion controller made it more difficult to port many games. The Switch is not in the same position. Publishers can draw on effectively their entire historical library of games.

- The Wii in 2010 and 2011 also couldn't really comfortably run many newer games. The Switch has some of that problem, but modern games are a more diverse bunch - there's a much higher proportion of indies and games that target mobile hardware. The biggest third-party games of 2010 were games like Mass Effect 2, Red Dead Redemption, Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood - stuff that the Wii couldn't run. The biggest third-party games of 2019 are games like Fortnite, GTAV, Minecraft - games that the Switch does run or could run. Missing out on stuff like Red Dead Redemption 2 isn't as big a hit to Switch now as missing RDR was to the Wii in 2010.

Portability is also a huge advantage the Switch has. People can be more forgiving with a port looking worse if they can play it on the go. Same for last gen ports, some people may buy it just to play again on portable, Sony used this a lot on both the PSP and Vita.

Personablue · Dec 4, 2019

TubaZef said:
Portability is also a huge advantage the Switch has. People can be more forgiving with a port looking worse if they can play it on the go. Same for last gen ports, some people may buy it just to play again on portable, Sony used this a lot on both the PSP and Vita.

That's the biggest advantage. That's why every port even though downgraded is welcomed very well by the install base

Jonneh · Dec 4, 2019

Switch is nearing 50m and hasn't even had a price cut or consistent bundle. If numbers start to get shakey those would both be the go to methods to maintain momentum but otherwise just games games games. It isn't showing any signs of slowing down just yet.

Also nah I don't think next gen systems will have much of an impact, people accept the compromises because of what Switch is and I can't see that changing with the competition maintaining their existing form factor.

We of course don't know their 2020 lineup but Animal Crossing alone is going to be giant. So far Switch software sales have been exceeding their 3DS counterparts and New Leaf sold even more than Smash 3DS

Tiny Chihuahueño · Dec 4, 2019

A few games wouldn't hurt.

KINGOFSHIBUYA Ltd. · Dec 4, 2019

Maybe if they make enough revisions, Nintendo fans will just keep buying it over and over. I'm sure 3DS numbers got up that way. Most gaming friends I know had multiple 3DS generations in drawers because a newer one dropped.

Seriously speaking, with the Switch, they need to keep making it smaller. Many folks dont want to carry a large tablet with them. If they can make another Lite, but cut the bezel crap down some more, more folks would want it.

That and keep making big games like Mario Kart.

tenderbrew said:
At that price point? DOA. Nowhere near even Wii U numbers.

I see what you did there. Good times.

HavakPkmn · Dec 4, 2019

I don't think it needs much to hit 100m, especially given the Chinese market incoming. But, primarily, this is what they need to do IMO:

- Keep up with the marketing and push Pokémon / Animal Crossing for the rest of the fiscal year 2019. I honestly think just doing this alone with the handful of other early 2020 titles is enough to get close to 15million units shipped between Nov '19 to Mar '20.
- Release a revision not too long after the next generation systems launch. This will show that Nintendo still means business and wants competent ports for a little while longer. Most games for the first year or two will be able to work on PS4/XBO IMO anyway, so Nintendo won't suffer as much and companies will probably be inclined to make games for a system that has 60m+ consoles in homes - especially if a more powerful revision is coming in say March or November 2021.
- Software! Just keep hitting it out of the park with the releases. We know games like BotW2, Metroid Prime 4, Bayonetta 3 are incoming. We will likely see some more remasters, 2D Zelda/Metroid/Mario, a new 3D Mario game will probably happen within a couple of years from now and I think they will manage to release another Pokémon Main Series or even two (if they don't make a Let's Go 2).
- A permanent price-cut in a year's time (November 2021) $249 / £229 with the Switch Lite to take a cut down to $179 / £149 not too long after. The cut will be a big factor when people are buying $500~ mega powerful machines instead. I think this is the biggest scope for failure as a I see Nintendo trying their luck with regular Switch at $279 / £249 and probably trying their best to not budge the Lite price too much.

The main thing is that I think the NIntendo Switch is long-term project, it could be the case that we just get Nintendo Switch 2, 3, 4 etc from now on with a fully handheld variant a year or two later each time. I think with just one more revision that is a fair bit more powerful (still not 4K would be acceptable IMO) means this current Nintendo Switch will probably last a minimum of six years in production with very strong sales consistently. I think come the end of fiscal year 2022 (March 2023), Nintendo will be reporting that the Nintendo Switch has sold through 100m units. I expect the end of March 2020 to be north of 55m.

Simba1 · Dec 4, 2019

Nintendo will easily maintain momentum in 2020, 2021. should be weaker than 2019. and 2020. but again strong.
They will maintain momentum bygames (sequles, new IPs, ports/remasters, 3rd party exclusives), price cuts and revisions.

Switch will pass 50m at end of 2019. and at end of 2020. its should be around 70m (in less than 4 years on market), so yeah 100m+ is very possible,
but that also depends form when Switch 2 will arive on market.

1. Do you think it will have a very bad tail like the Wii?
2. When do you think its successor will be announced?
3. Will the next gen affect it in any how?
4. And is the current fiscal year the peak year for Switch?

1. No, main reason is because Switch is now only platform that Nintendo cares about and they dont have divided recources like before on two different platforms.
2. 2022/2023
3. Some, but not big effect
4. This or next one

The road to 100M Switch. How can Nintendo maintain its momentum in 2020 and beyond

Where do you think Switch will end up?

Above 100M

90-100M

80-90

Below 80M

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