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The PS4 has surpassed 110 million units, do you think it will surpass the PS2 lifetime sales?

Do you think the PS4 will surpass the PS2 lifetime sales?

  • Yes, the ps4 will surpass the ps2

    Votes: 151 14.4%

  • No, the ps4 will not surpass the ps2

    Votes: 895 85.6%
  • Total voters
    1,046
vivftp

vivftp

Member
Oct 29, 2017
19,760
With the PS4 having another great year the question invariably comes up asking if it can eventually surpass the PS2 to become the best selling console or handheld ever. The PS2 sits at 155 million lifetime sales meaning the PS4 has 45 million more to go. If Sony sticks to their usual 10 year plan the PS4 has another 3.5 years to go on the market, but that can always be extended if they choose to.

I do think there are factors that will help the PS4 continue to sell which are:

- the current MSRP is 299 USD, there's a lot of room for price drops
- the slim model has yet to be announced
- there are a buttload of highly anticipated first and third party games to come just this year alone
- PS Now will continue to grow and the PS4 will be a budget option to let people access the service on their TV. It can eventually be a cheap way to play PS5 titles without owning a PS5.
- emerging markets should love the PS4 once prices drop with its incredible library of games
- with the economy headed the way it is there will be a lot of people who turn to a cheaper option for playing games so that should extend its legs further.

So do you think it can dethrone the PS2?
 

Deleted member 4869

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
7,753
I think it will end up doing around 125 to 130 million when all is said and done. It will be very close to the PS2, but won't be able to match it.
 
Kazooie

Kazooie

Member
Jul 17, 2019
5,021
With PS5 backwards compatible and possible price pressure from Microsoft, it might not be feasible to keep the PS4 around. I do not expect it to beat PS2 lifetime sales.
 
Raijinto

Raijinto

self-requested ban
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
10,091
Probably not no. What is Sony's prediction for the next FY or even before the PS5 comes out? Even if it sells 10 million more before November which would be great it would have to sell a further 30 million after a backwards compatible successor is out on the market. That's asking a lot for a system that is on the decline and just sold 13 million or so in the last FY.
 
Gay Bowser

Gay Bowser

Member
Oct 30, 2017
17,699
No.

Sales dropped 25% YoY and they had to revise their guidance down 10%. "There's a lot of room for price drops" in conjecture; the MSRP for the PS3 with a hard drive never dropped below $269.

I think we'll see a modest price cut and a cost-cut "super slim" redesign this year, but honestly if the PS4 has a PS2-style "second life" after the PS5 is launched that will say more about Sony pricing the PS5 out of the market than it will the PS4 being some unstoppable success.
 
Tyaren

Tyaren

Character Artist
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
24,753
No, not with a third of what it sold so far to go and when the PS4 will be replaced soon. But 120 million will probably be in it.
Anyway, amazing feat!
 
ColdSun

ColdSun

Together, we are strangers
Administrator
Oct 25, 2017
3,291
Definitely not. If the new console gen wasn't coming down the pipes, then maybe.
 
Strings

Strings

Member
Oct 27, 2017
31,412
I don't think anything in the next 15 years will surpass the PS2 (I'd say ever, but that's took risky lol).
 
MrNewVegas

MrNewVegas

Member
Oct 27, 2017
10,718
Itll hit 140. The upcoming recession/depression will make this a cheap entertainment unit. The current amount of sales will boost end of life sales by having friends join in.
 
KrigareN-

KrigareN-

Banned
Dec 13, 2017
2,156
It'll end up at ~130M.

The PS4 will not collapse like previous gen consoles did when next gen arrives
 
fourfourfun

fourfourfun

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,682
England
vivftp said:
Maybe call it the ultra slim then. It's the 7nm redesign that pretty much everyone is expecting to come this year.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

It would be interesting to see what form a super slim would be. My TV space is limited in the front room. I've basically got space for the Switch next to it and that is that. If they could really cram the PS4 down into a digital small form factor box, it could be really enticing, despite the looming PS5.
 
kami_sama

kami_sama

Member
Oct 26, 2017
7,000
No way. Next year PS4 will be in freefall.
PS2 numbers are so high because it continued selling on Brazil and other countries.
As far as I know it's not going to be like that.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Prophet of Truth - You’re my Numberwall
Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,912
The PS4 would have to sell another 50M. That is not happening.

it's ending somewhere in the 125-130M range, it's not getting anywhere near 150M, let alone 160M.
 
BrickArts295

BrickArts295

GOTY Tracking Thread Master
Member
Oct 26, 2017
13,755
It will be very close depending on how crazy Sony can get with a price cut.
Sell a Budget Slim at $199.99 and it still be a good seller for the next 2-3 years. PS4 has a crazy amount of great games and those who were patient will be rewarded very greatly.
 
RisingStar

RisingStar

Banned
Oct 8, 2019
4,849
While I voted yes, margins are everything. Sony's success with the PS4 was due to margins and software sales which backed up the high hardware sales. While possible, Sony wouldn't want to price themselves out with the PS5 if the PS4 is more of an attractive proposition. That was the issue with the PS3, as the PS2 was just simply better value back in 2007.

I can Sony manage to drop the PS4/PS4 Pro to $200/$300 with the PS5 at $500, managing to hold on for another year or two. If they truly want to make the console blow up in emerging markets, they would risk sales cutting into the PS5 pie by releasing an even cheaper model.

All being said, its extremely likely, if they want to do it. Which wasn't the case with any other home console since the PS2 itself, and why I picked yes.
 
texhnolyze

texhnolyze

Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,157
Indonesia
No, it won't.

One of the main reasons the PS2 reached that much in unit sales is due to piracy. It was so easy to pirate on PS2, so that even people from 3rd world countries were able to afford the console.
 
jroc74

jroc74

Member
Oct 27, 2017
28,992
I used to think it wasn't gonna get to 130. I dont know now....

I cant see it hitting 150, 160.
 
CaviarMeths

CaviarMeths

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
10,655
Western Canada
I can see it ending up around ~125-130m. I think a few factors will prevent it from having the freakishly absurd legs of the PS2, which still occasionally outsold the PS3 a few years into the next generation. The main factors for PS2 being so long-legged were its enduring popularity in then-emerging markets like Latin America and the problems associated with early gen PS3 - namely its high cost and lack of compelling games. The market was pretty whelmed by the PS3 launch and its first couple of years. On the other hand, PS4 was an immediate smash hit and we saw the PS3 die almost immediately afterward. The PS3 only sold about 7m units from PS4's launch in 2013 to 2017 when its production was discontinued. Compare that to the 7m the PS2 sold in 2008 alone, and nearly 50m total from 2006-2013.

I think PS5 will have more in common with PS4's launch than PS3. And if PS5 is indeed backwards compatible with the PS4 library and is attractively priced, there will be very little reason to purchase a PS4 after this year.
 
Last edited:
Jimrpg

Jimrpg

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,280
i'll yes for sure.

We're only halfway thru PS4's life cycle. Casual gamers haven't bought the system yet.

The PS4 Pro is still doing 4TFs.

There's no PS4 mini. They will revise the design and integrated graphics these days are so much better than it used to be and be much cheaper than the current form.

A lot of people will still be on 1080p TVs especially for gaming. If you can play valhalla at 1080p/30fps, I don't think itd be worth $500-600 just to get it in 4k/30fps. Maybe at 60fps, but not 30fps.

PS2 did amazing with casual games, and I see a very similar progression path. I don't think they're going to ditch the PS4 for a good two or three years at least.
 

Normal

Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,296
Nah. The PS5 is going to be released at the end of this year/next year. It's going to cut the legs of the PS4.
 
Eoin

Eoin

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,103
No, as well as all the other reasons people have posted, the PS2's sales were boosted by a confusing transition to an expensive generation. Without a hard drive, the PS2 could be made super-slim and super-cheap, which made it a compelling option for anyone looking for a games machine. The PS3 was uniquely expensive in that market, and both that and the Xbox 360 were partially reliant on the gradual growth in HD televisions (it's easy to forget now, but there were a lot of people back then saying nonsense things like "you won't see the difference without a HDTV").

The PS4 can't realistically be as cheap as the PS2 was in 2006, the transition to next generation isn't as confusing, and the PS5 hopefully won't be as expensive as the PS3 was (which with inflation was closer to US$750, with prices in most other countries being even higher).
 
MC_Leon6494

MC_Leon6494

Member
Sep 7, 2018
501
Particularly with regards to Covid-19, I don't see either the PS4 or the Xbox One selling like mad hotcake this year. The Switch has managed to trend positive with Covid-19 - partly as a result of Animal Crossing's social media stranglehold. But for a lot of people, at least in the U.S., dropping money on a console is out of the question right now.
Unless there are a ton of people hanging out on buying the PS4 when it gets cheaper or for The Last of Us Part 2 / big black Friday sales this year I don't see it happening. 130 million or so makes sense, but I don't see the PS4 having the legs the PS2 did. Also lol @
arbok26 said:
We're only halfway thru PS4's life cycle. Casual gamers haven't bought the system yet.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
I can see the PS4 selling well through 2021, but a big wind down after that. And a lot of casual gamers have a PS4, Xbox or Switch at this point. Or they aren't interested in console gaming. Or are playing on PC
 

Skeff

Member
Oct 29, 2017
1,628
No but they could get up to 140m with a super slim by selling in emerging markets.
 
ShinobiOfTheWind

ShinobiOfTheWind

Member
Nov 28, 2017
1,357
Do we have the final PS2 LTD? ~157 or did it hit 160?

It needs a final hardware revision, for both models (assuming they're going to continue both of'em post the PS5 launch), and some aggressive pricing to go with it.

The first party output may stop next year, but third party will support till 2025 at the bare minimum, due to the massive installed base.

Will have significantly longer legs than the PS3, production and support.
 
DieH@rd

DieH@rd

Member
Oct 26, 2017
10,564
It will be very hard.

[very cheap] PS2 continued to sell great well after [very expensive] PS3 arrived. I don't expect a repeat of that with PS4. There well may be much more software for PS4 in the upcoming few years, but the hardware price will never go down to PS2 level.
 
Dan Thunder

Dan Thunder

Member
Nov 2, 2017
14,033
I think it'll be close but probably not. I can't be 100% certain given that I originally thought that 100m was a pipe dream but the PS2 sold around 35m units after the release of the PS3 so I don't expect the PS4 to beat that figure.

Regardless it'll still be one of the top 3 best selling consoles (home or handheld) of all time which is a frankly astonishing achievement.
 

Newbong

Member
Oct 27, 2017
180
It will cross ps2 . Ps4 is selling more than ps2 at its 7th year. With price dropping to 199 .. and 2/3 more years in developing countries , ps4 beat ps2 sale no.s
 

Deleted member 543

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
3,065
I don't think so. PS2 had Singstar to help push it to a new demographic long after PS360 were on the market.

PS4 is so focused on "core" games, or whatever you want to call them, and those games are driven so much by better graphics and bigger budgets. That demographic will be turning to next gen as soon as it's viable for them.
 
Devilgunman

Devilgunman

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,452
it won't reach PS2 number unless Sony cut down the slim price to $149. Remember the PS2 was $99 at the end of its life.
 
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