That's pretty predictable. Doesn't a president who won all 3 houses almost always have the pendulum swing in the midterm?
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The people who think Trump is a lock for re-election
- Thread starter Aaron
- Start date
The swing yes. But not as much as it did. The House was a slaughter. The Senate well, ignoring that Dems will likely struggle to win the senate for the next couple of decades, that map was like 100 years bad for Dems with like over 13 seats to defend. This time Republicans are on the defense.
Why do people keep bringing up the blue wave? Why does no one want to address the electoral college?
OP, you say things like people don't back up their belief with evidence such as polls but didn't most polls if not all say Hilary would win in 2016? Trump defied all expectations before and he can do it again, it would be best for progressive Americans to err on the side of caution and do everything they can to prevent his re-election.
Trump is not polling well in the swing states that won him the presidency, Florida withstanding.
it's as absurd to say trump is guaranteed to be reelected as much as it was absurd to say clinton was guaranteed to win in 2016
probably more absurd even
probably more absurd even
Many American voters are dumb, impulsive and swayed by shiny rhetoric. Hopefully they stay home.
and Democrats need to energize a younger base and get them to turn out in first election Obama like numbers. I am just not sure if any current Dem candidate does that.
and Democrats need to energize a younger base and get them to turn out in first election Obama like numbers. I am just not sure if any current Dem candidate does that.
Isnt he polling better now than he was a year out from the last elections?
I haven't seen positive polling for him in places like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, in fact it's been really bad for him, but, others that watch the polls can probably answer you that, they are posting in here.
Even if he was I don't think that changes much. He'd still lose those states handily as it stands right now. Before he's impeached. Before a Dem candidate is even selected.
Every single bit of data and polling shows that Biden fares better against Trump over Sanders. Same goes for Warren. Bernie is the weakest of the three; this is borne out over and over and over again.
Not sure why some of Bernie's hardcore supporters refuse to accept this fact.
Trump will win if the people on Era who are part of Bernie's ride-or-die cult are reflective of the voting demographics, poison the well, stay home and don't vote while endlessly complaining and throwing out right wing Fox News comment section talking points and conspiracy theories though.
Not sure why some of Bernie's hardcore supporters refuse to accept this fact.
Trump will win if the people on Era who are part of Bernie's ride-or-die cult are reflective of the voting demographics, poison the well, stay home and don't vote while endlessly complaining and throwing out right wing Fox News comment section talking points and conspiracy theories though.
I hope not, but we should have dismantled the electoral college a decade ago after it failed us in 2000 and we ended up with the debacle that is the Bush presidency.
Even as a goddamn 15 year old, it seemed bonkers that the system could work out that way.
However, in true American fashion most people are going to spend their time yelling about the symptoms instead of the actual disease that keeps fucking us over.
Even as a goddamn 15 year old, it seemed bonkers that the system could work out that way.
However, in true American fashion most people are going to spend their time yelling about the symptoms instead of the actual disease that keeps fucking us over.
BUT
Have you met more trump supporters?
Yes his base has been further radicalized, and they are very entrenched, BUT, are there more of them now?
remember, one vote counts the same weather you're angry or reallly angry when you place it. All signs point to his base shrinking. And even a shrink of one percent in the right places is enough for him to lose.
Well a symptom of the disease is that you need a stupid amount of people in congress to fix the disease that the dems have not gotten.
The biggest lesson 2016 taught me is not to pretend I can predict this shit.
I never believed Shitbag would run. Then he announced he was running.
I never believed Shitbag would make it through the primaries. Then he vanquished over a dozen other GOP flunkies.
I never believed Shitbag would recover from grabbing pussy. Then the media agreed it was just locker room talk and focused on buttery males.
I never believed Shitbag would go from game show host to picking SCOTUS judges and holding the nuclear football. Then it turned out consistent polling focused purely majority popularity doesn't mean shit when the electoral college is the mechanism to determine the winner.
I live in middle Missouri. We have no senate seats on the ballot this cycle, and my district rep is a lock because there are no worthy Dem challengers. I'm voting exclusively for the presidency, and I don't give a fuck if that means my vote in 2020 barely has any real meaning. I'm gonna be at my designated polling site at 7AM.
I hope Shitbag loses. Desperately. Because I don't just want him removed from office, I want his family punished by the New York state courts.
But I'm not necessarily counting on it.
I never believed Shitbag would run. Then he announced he was running.
I never believed Shitbag would make it through the primaries. Then he vanquished over a dozen other GOP flunkies.
I never believed Shitbag would recover from grabbing pussy. Then the media agreed it was just locker room talk and focused on buttery males.
I never believed Shitbag would go from game show host to picking SCOTUS judges and holding the nuclear football. Then it turned out consistent polling focused purely majority popularity doesn't mean shit when the electoral college is the mechanism to determine the winner.
I live in middle Missouri. We have no senate seats on the ballot this cycle, and my district rep is a lock because there are no worthy Dem challengers. I'm voting exclusively for the presidency, and I don't give a fuck if that means my vote in 2020 barely has any real meaning. I'm gonna be at my designated polling site at 7AM.
I hope Shitbag loses. Desperately. Because I don't just want him removed from office, I want his family punished by the New York state courts.
But I'm not necessarily counting on it.
Or enough logical actors in the populace to force the government to act. The populace in any democracy has a lot more power than they actually believe.
Trump should not be in office at this point, but the problem is that a large swath of the population are just too far gone to even see reality.
If people in the US reacted to Trump's obvious corruption in the same way that South Korea reacted to their former president's corruption (And the stuff Trump is obviously guilty of makes her entire controversy look cute.) then the country would be in a much better place now.
Unfortunately, there just aren't enough logical actors on one side for that to happen.
Some won't. Most will. But even just like 2% and Trump is toast. A lot of people saw Trump as an outsider, a wild card, different, a wrench in the cog, a fuck you to the system. Some of those people know better now, even though they should have before. He's the most Republican President there ever was.
I do think it's enough.
"The reasonable ones." Oh do you mean the ones who were ok with white nationalism, climate change denial, and horrible foreign policy? Yeah, they totally exist.
I remember the old place. So many people told me Trump getting elected was impossible. Now the same people are telling me it's impossible he'll get re-elected. Fuck if I'm placing my faith in anything I hear on Era. This place is a bubble and thinking the views represented here are mainstream, would be foolish. Not making that mistake again.
I really hope you are right, but that is using actual logic which doesn't seem compatible with most of those supporter's brains.
Anyone who thought that Trump, of all people, was going to be some incorruptible anti-establishment politician that was going to smash capitalism for the sake of the working/middle class just can't be explained with logic.
You'll need to back this up with a few polls. From what I've seen Biden clearly has lead but Bernie has been doing as good or better than various other candidates depending on the poll. You're imagining a metric that isn't there.
I agree. But I pushed back and felt doomsday about 2018 and then look what happened.
If anything, Trump has a chance of losing some minority support. I don't see White conservatives budging.
It's only illogical because you have no clue what they are thinking.
Those people really hate government and really like capitalism.
That hate for government means they see a wealthy person as more viable leader.
That love for capitalism keeps them in the mindset that they are just an embarrassed millionaire who will one day get their day.
You're just further proving my point that they have no actual logic circuits in their brain.
U.S. government and capitalism are NOT separable at this point in history.
This has been the case for decades, and should be obvious to anyone with two brain cells.
All it would take is Trump to tout some bullshit tax breaks that will not even benefit them in the end and they will probably bow down to him again.
It will be replaced by a new Red Scare. Socialism is the boogieman to white Americans above a certain age, because they grew up with the Soviets as the enemy.
Which is peak irony of course considering most will be on Social Security and Medicare, but that is easily hand-waved.
On the one hand this country elected Trump despite everything he said and did during the campaign and in his life as a private citizen, and the right is basically a propagandist support wing.
On the other hand, Trump scraped by in 2016 with less than 10,000 votes spread across a handful of toss up states with the aid of Russia while going against a supremely flawed candidate in Hilary Clinton also involved in her own scandals. When we consider EVERYTHING that has happened during Trump's presidency and that he won't be running against a Hilary, I have a genuinely hard time believing he will win. Like, the economy may or may not be okay come election time but it's certainly not doing so well it should flip the toss up states pink in 2020.
Maybe I'm just fooling myself but I just can't believe America would make that mistake.
On the other hand, Trump scraped by in 2016 with less than 10,000 votes spread across a handful of toss up states with the aid of Russia while going against a supremely flawed candidate in Hilary Clinton also involved in her own scandals. When we consider EVERYTHING that has happened during Trump's presidency and that he won't be running against a Hilary, I have a genuinely hard time believing he will win. Like, the economy may or may not be okay come election time but it's certainly not doing so well it should flip the toss up states pink in 2020.
Maybe I'm just fooling myself but I just can't believe America would make that mistake.
It all depends on how much faith you have in the American people to come together and realize we need to get him out and set aside their petty differences to do the right thing even if that means voting for a candidate that doesn't share 100% of their views.
All indicators are showing that he can't win with the level of support he now has with white women he's under water with both college educated and those without college education. But it's still early but I don't see how he can improve those numbers as he's only going to get worse since they have nothing but yes men in he's cabinet now.
Also people saying if Biden is nominated that the Democrats will lose are thing like a someone under 50 or doesn't know any older black people. He polling with people over 65 in the primary is huge if you look at Sanders numbers for instance they plummet with people over 65 he's not even in the top 5 sometimes. I wish someone younger like Harris or even Beto would of caught on but it is what it is. I just hope Warren can win both Iowa and New Hampshire to get more black support as she is polling pretty good with people over 65 not Biden good but that will increase as she gets more Black support.
Also people saying if Biden is nominated that the Democrats will lose are thing like a someone under 50 or doesn't know any older black people. He polling with people over 65 in the primary is huge if you look at Sanders numbers for instance they plummet with people over 65 he's not even in the top 5 sometimes. I wish someone younger like Harris or even Beto would of caught on but it is what it is. I just hope Warren can win both Iowa and New Hampshire to get more black support as she is polling pretty good with people over 65 not Biden good but that will increase as she gets more Black support.
Can't see how people can definitively say yes or no.
Yes he is currently the record holder for the lowest favorable rating for the any US president ever, but at the same time his base is incredibly loyal and he also currently has the BIGGEST war fund chest available, far outstripping the funds of DNC and any of the Democratic candidates.
So, it's a tossup.
Yes he is currently the record holder for the lowest favorable rating for the any US president ever, but at the same time his base is incredibly loyal and he also currently has the BIGGEST war fund chest available, far outstripping the funds of DNC and any of the Democratic candidates.
So, it's a tossup.
Northeast PA handed the election to him. Besides Philly and Pittsburgh, the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area is the only other blue spot in the Commonwealth, and in 2016 the number of Obama voters who switched to Trump was astonishing:
I'm from NEPA, going home before the election and seeing the intensity of Trump support convinced me that he would win. I've been back many times and it's only getting worse and worse. The greater Pittsburgh area was far redder in 2016 as well. Even with his losses with suburban demos, we desperately need a monster turnout from Philly.
OP
OP
Can you point any one person in this thread who said it's impossible for Trump to get re-elected? Even one.
You know, I got ahead of myself in 2016 in predicting a Clinton win, but I also nailed 2012 back on GAF right down to the Electoral College margin, 332-206. And I stood by that prediction right after Romney mopped the floor with Obama at the first debate and everyone was running around declaring that Obama's re-election was doomed. I probably won't make any predictions until a week or so before the next election, but 2020 can be my tiebreaker.
4 more years! 4 more years!
Seriously though... 4 more years ;P
I honestly do not know what will happen. I can't vote anyway. I never thought he would win the first time.
Seriously though... 4 more years ;P
I honestly do not know what will happen. I can't vote anyway. I never thought he would win the first time.
- Never underestimate a Democratic candidate's ability to put a foot in their mouth and have their support plummet. Biden has a 10x multiplier for this - good fucking luck getting to November 2020 unscathed if he's the nominee. He'll do some untold thing to swiftboat himself five times over on top of all the other baggage he's already bringing. Howard Dean sunk himself with a fucking scream.
- Donald Trump couldn't sink himself even if he purposely sat on a chihuahua on live TV and turned it into a dead doggie pancake - his 42% base would still be his 42% base. The only thing in the last 3 years that actually broke some of his ironclad base support was taking responsibility for the government shutdown in January, because some of his base stopped getting paid for a few weeks. As soon as those checks started to arrive again, the percentage of his base that left him got amnesia and bounced right back.
- Remember THE CARAVAN? We don't know what 2020's CARAVAN NATIONAL EMERGENCY is going to be. All I know is that there's going to be one. I wouldn't even be surprised if it's yet another actual literal caravan.
The math in key swing states looks unfavorable for Trump, but it doesn't fucking matter because Trump is a political kugelblitz where the known laws of politics break down.
I honestly just don't fucking know anymore. In a just world, he would have been kicked out of office by now. Who knows for sure where this impeachment thing will go when his supporters defend him to the death, even going so far as to hand-wave the blatant commission of crimes.
It'll likely come down to Wisconsin or Arizona. Trump isn't expanding on anything Hillary won in 2016 and baring any complete fuckups Pennsylvania, and Michigan are flipping back. it's in no way or shape a lock for either candidate. Way too many unknown factors this far out, but I'm feeling good about our chances.
How'd that work out for him? oh yeah, it didn't.
