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Stock Market Watch |OT| I've stocked up on market watches, what now?

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Amibguous Cad

Amibguous Cad

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,033
PopcornMegaphone said:
Since you're new to investing let me you on a little secret: Nobody in this thread knows anything. Don't time the market. It's a fools game. Just create a 3 fund portfolio and dollar cost average. After that thank God you took no market timing advice from this thread.
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Amen.

the market probably has more to fall, but you can never know whether you're at a local or global minimum. You can buy now with a ~20 percent discount on where the stocks were a month ago guaranteed. Take the sure thing, put it all in an index fund, don't touch it, and in a decade you're gonna look like a genius.
 
PanickyFool

PanickyFool

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
5,947
So Disney... (This is entirely rusty professional, so amateur)

Assuming the following:
  • 20% drop in media revenue because of ESPN loosing sports.
  • 50% drop in Parks revenue. They sent the interns back for the quarter so they really are not expecting to before the summer. Even if they do open, the lag to get back to normal revenues will be painfull.
  • 50% drop in studio revenue. It was already going to be a minor year compared to last year.
  • 25% increase in direct to consumer, what else are you going to watch?
  • 10% drop in product sales because of the lack of in park sales, supply chain disruption.
  • Decreasing but not 1:1 drop in cost of goods sold, laggard effect.
  • Cost of Capital of 6%. This assumes the government props it up.
  • PE Ratio of 16x. This could be high, during 2008 the PE dropped to 8x.

Price Target: $65 per share.

PopcornMegaphone said:
Since you're new to investing let me you on a little secret: Nobody in this thread knows anything. Don't time the market. It's a fools game. Just create a 3 fund portfolio and dollar cost average. After that thank God you took no market timing advice from this thread.
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ETFs apear to be broken at the moment.
 
mikeamizzle

mikeamizzle

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,058
PanickyFool said:
So Disney... (This is entirely rusty professional, so amateur)

Assuming the following:
  • 20% drop in media revenue because of ESPN loosing sports.
  • 50% drop in Parks revenue. They sent the interns back for the quarter so they really are not expecting to before the summer. Even if they do open, the lag to get back to normal revenues will be painfull.
  • 50% drop in studio revenue. It was already going to be a minor year compared to last year.
  • 25% increase in direct to consumer, what else are you going to watch?
  • 10% drop in product sales because of the lack of in park sales, supply chain disruption.
  • Decreasing but not 1:1 drop in cost of goods sold, laggard effect.
  • Cost of Capital of 6%. This assumes the government props it up.
  • PE Ratio of 16x. This could be high, during 2008 the PE dropped to 8x.

Price Target: $65 per share.
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I think we've bottomed out in DIS (or will hit maybe ~90. We'll see. Regardless as a long time investor I was happy adding to my position on Friday.
 
mikeamizzle

mikeamizzle

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,058
zulux21 said:
I'm banking on disney getting down to $75 at this point (which is where I will buy it.) figure it will happen within the next two weeks. likely will go even lower but I'm fine with nearly half off.
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I think the market has priced Covid in. We'll see. Edit: but yeah i could see it going to maybe 90, if we don't see some stimulus soon.
 
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Pwnz

Pwnz

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,279
Places
PanickyFool said:
So Disney... (This is entirely rusty professional, so amateur)

Assuming the following:
  • 20% drop in media revenue because of ESPN loosing sports.
  • 50% drop in Parks revenue. They sent the interns back for the quarter so they really are not expecting to before the summer. Even if they do open, the lag to get back to normal revenues will be painfull.
  • 50% drop in studio revenue. It was already going to be a minor year compared to last year.
  • 25% increase in direct to consumer, what else are you going to watch?
  • 10% drop in product sales because of the lack of in park sales, supply chain disruption.
  • Decreasing but not 1:1 drop in cost of goods sold, laggard effect.
  • Cost of Capital of 6%. This assumes the government props it up.
  • PE Ratio of 16x. This could be high, during 2008 the PE dropped to 8x.

Price Target: $65 per share.



ETFs apear to be broken at the moment.
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Does disney have billions of cash on hand? If so I can see them being one of the safe stocks people will focus on.
 
Ether_Snake

Ether_Snake

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
11,306
Zed said:
An interesting thing about this chart is that it shows it took over 20 years for the stock market to reach its old highs. Every crash ain't like 2008 where it only takes about 5 years to reach the old high again.
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Well to be fair, you mean it took the end of WWII. These comparisons aren't really meaningful, they are too far apart, too different on context.

mikeamizzle said:
I think the market has priced Covid in. We'll see. Edit: but yeah i could see it going to maybe 90, if we don't see some stimulus soon.
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I really think the pricing in of Covid will happen this week. A lot has changed since Friday, and people are starting to realize that as more countries lock down we have no notion of when we'll be able to go back to normal, and add the uncertainty of how countries will be able to handle to socio-economic ramifications. I mean really, just think about mortgages, people not paying them, etc. The list goes on. This should be at least as hurtful as 2008.

What will start the recovery is when we see a country easing out measures, chances are in Asia first.
 
zulux21

zulux21

Member
Oct 25, 2017
20,353
mikeamizzle said:
I think the market has priced Covid in. We'll see. Edit: but yeah i could see it going to maybe 90, if we don't see some stimulus soon.
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the majority of american's haven't even stopped going to public places in mass let alone accepted that everything is going to shut down soon. no way the market has priced covid in.
 
Pwnz

Pwnz

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,279
Places
Zed said:
An interesting thing about this chart is that it shows it took over 20 years for the stock market to reach its old highs. Every crash ain't like 2008 where it only takes about 5 years to reach the old high again.
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It's more around 10 years if you reinvest dividends. There's been study on it which is why the 10 year time horizon rule is used to calm people in their 20s through mid 50s selling off 401k and ira.

And 10 years is with diversified index funds not DOW which is custom weighted 30 stocks to sell newspapers

That said the great depression still fucked up performance for people that retired from 1929 through the mid 40s. But performance was way above average through 59 and caught up with the long term average of about 6.6% real annual return.
 
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SRG01

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,014
For those holding ETFs, might I suggest looking up their daily IV price to make sure they're not completely out to lunch...
 
T0M

T0M

Alt-Account
Banned
Aug 13, 2019
900
Ok y'all, here's the plan.

I've got a put on SPY outstanding right now, $250 expiring 3/23. Trump is going to try and pump the market an hour before futures open. How the market reacts is going to be very telling in how well the market will react to these following weeks. It's obvious what Trump is trying to do, and he's going to keep trying to do it and pray that this pandemic blows over. I'm fairly sure the market is is going to open bloody red on Monday. Every indication says that this pandemic is going to get worse before it gets better. However, the fed and Trump still have more strategies to keep this pump going before they run out of time.

If the market opens bloody red, I think the best play is to get out of my current SPY put and close at a breakeven or a slight profit (time decay xd), and wait for the next Trump Pump to buy back in on 4/17. He can't keep doing this forever. I repeat, he can't keep doing this forever. Eventually it will stop working, and the fundamentals of our economy will cause SPY to take a giant shit as boomers continue to pull their money out. The only thing working against me right now is time decay of my option.

I have no idea how this will play out, but I'm fairly sure that this COVID shit is going to get worse before it gets better. The main thing is how long it takes (TIME DECAY) before people finally start catching on to how bad this is gonna get. If this works though, and SPY tanks hard as shit, then I can make back all the money I've lost in my portfolio ever since the initial dump started, and then some. That leaves me in a prime place to buy into those blue chips and airline stocks, so that when this finally ends, I"ll be in a better spot than when I started.

TL,DR - Play monthlies, not weeklies. Trump is going to try and keep pumping, but the economy was built on a house of cards to start with. Stay the course and collect some of that sweet boomer money, I promise. Also get puts on various international indexes if you can too.
 
RoKKeR

RoKKeR

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,377
T0M said:
TL,DR - Play monthlies, not weeklies. Trump is going to try and keep pumping, but the economy was built on a house of cards to start with. Stay the course and collect some of that sweet boomer money, I promise. Also get puts on various international indexes if you can too.
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What trading platform do you use? Also curious how you determine your strike prices... (I don't do any trading atm, still trying to learn)
 

2pac_71

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,507
Wow the fed cuts rates to zero. And launches massive $700 billion QE. Guess didn't want to wait till Wednesday to announce.
 
Stinkles

Stinkles

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
20,459
thefit said:
These morons.
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deregulating the market to own the libs!

yes the investors should be in charge of the henhouse to unshackle the ethical selfless genius of the invisible hand.

Something something protecting your 401k.

Anyway this won't be necessary because the over the weekend Trump claimed <checks notes> after the markets had closed that his brilliant plan had fixed the Chinese Foreign Caused EuroCrash and literally suggested doing similar measures five times a day.
 
T0M

T0M

Alt-Account
Banned
Aug 13, 2019
900
RoKKeR said:
What trading platform do you use? Also curious how you determine your strike prices... (I don't do any trading atm, still trying to learn)
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Right now I use robinhood, but I would recommend using either TastyTrade or TD Ameritrade. Choosing strike prices is a mixture of knowing your personal risk tolerance and setting a profit target before hand. Farther OTM options = less premium paid upfront, but high chance of failure.

some info: https://www.investopedia.com/articl...ptions-basics-how-pick-right-strike-price.asp

Mackaveli said:
Wow the fed cuts rates to zero. And launches massive $700 billion QE. Guess didn't want to wait till Wednesday to announce.
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Like cutting rates is going to do anything. This isn't a crisis you can paper over, literally no one is going out and spending money. All this clarifies is that JPowell continues to be Trump's water boy. Embarrassing.
 
Yunyo

Yunyo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,824
What in the fuck. Surely the failure of the rate cut last time should have been a good enough sign to not repeat this idiocy.
 
T0M

T0M

Alt-Account
Banned
Aug 13, 2019
900
4/17, y'all. This is going to kill consumer confidence. Load up and collect that money.
 
TheSkullPrince

TheSkullPrince

Member
Oct 28, 2017
27,577
California
Wait, so does that mean we aren't getting any interest on our savings anymore? Not like it was much anyways, but still.

If we get negative rates does that mean it'll cost money to keep money in savings account?
 
RoKKeR

RoKKeR

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,377
T0M said:
Right now I use robinhood, but I would recommend using either TastyTrade or TD Ameritrade. Choosing strike prices is a mixture of knowing your personal risk tolerance and setting a profit target before hand. Farther OTM options = less premium paid upfront, but high chance of failure.

some info: https://www.investopedia.com/articl...ptions-basics-how-pick-right-strike-price.asp

Like cutting rates is going to do anything. This isn't a crisis you can paper over, literally no one is going out and spending money. All this clarifies is that JPowell continues to be Trump's water boy. Embarrassing.
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Roger that, yeah I like how user friendly Robinhood is and I really do feel like I've learned a lot by just poking around the interface, but I'll probably set up a TD Ameritrade to keep learning.

And yeah, I also agree with you on the Fed move lol. I mean I suppose they had to do something, but I'm not sure what it'll do/how much it'll help...
 
thefit

thefit

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,243
While that morons tweets about bullshit he's catching up on on his TiVo. He's attitude is pretty much "I don't have it fuck everything else"
 
LJ11

LJ11

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,489
Discount rate is basically nothing, no reserve requirement, you can basically lend with impunity with these actions.
 
Dierce

Dierce

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,993
Dow going up by over 2000 points tomorrow? More speculation in the market until the eventual hard crash and slow recovery since feds have no more tools to fight a recession. All because trump wants the stock market to go up.
 
DrewFu

DrewFu

Attempted to circumvent ban with an alt-account
Banned
Apr 19, 2018
10,360
Dierce said:
Dow going up by over 2000 points tomorrow? More speculation in the market until the eventual hard crash and slow recovery since feds have no more tools to fight a recession. All because trump wants the stock market to go up.
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It's impossible to know how the market will react to rate drops. The market always clamors for them, but then when they happen, the market often drops because they then read it as the economy is weak.
 
RoKKeR

RoKKeR

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,377
Dierce said:
Dow going up by over 2000 points tomorrow? More speculation in the market until the eventual hard crash and slow recovery since feds have no more tools to fight a recession. All because trump wants the stock market to go up.
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When they did the emergency stimulus last week the market ripped up like crazy and then plunged back to where it was. IMO Fed has lost a lot of credibility in the market, but this move might be enough to juice it a bit for Trump to sign another fucking daily DOW chart or some shit. (I know nothing, just commenting)
 
Byakuya769

Byakuya769

Avenger
Oct 29, 2017
2,718
Dierce said:
Dow going up by over 2000 points tomorrow? More speculation in the market until the eventual hard crash and slow recovery since feds have no more tools to fight a recession. All because trump wants the stock market to go up.
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States are starting to shit down dining, I expect markets to react more to the increasing effects on American commerce than an aggressive rate cut.
 
DrewFu

DrewFu

Attempted to circumvent ban with an alt-account
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Apr 19, 2018
10,360
Beer Monkey said:
If the market goes up tomorrow, investors are not rational full stop.
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That's not necessarily true. With how much the market has dropped the last few weeks, a recession is likely well priced in at this point. If that's the case, a step like this should be a relief to the market.

Especially given we're likely currently in a global recession right now. Even if it's short term.
 
Addie

Addie

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,687
DFW
PopcornMegaphone said:
Since you're new to investing let me you on a little secret: Nobody in this thread knows anything. Don't time the market. It's a fools game. Just create a 3 fund portfolio and dollar cost average. After that thank God you took no market timing advice from this thread.
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Yep. All in on admiral shares of Total Domestic, Total International, and some legacy funds from USAA that include bonds. 90% stock/10% bond breakdown. All dollar cost averaging, aside from when I pump my Roth or notice too much in my checking account.
 
PanickyFool

PanickyFool

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
5,947
DrewFu said:
That's not necessarily true. With how much the market has dropped the last few weeks, a recession is likely well priced in at this point. If that's the case, a step like this should be a relief to the market.

Especially given we're likely currently in a global recession right now. Even if it's short term.
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Average recession pricing is will below the recent drop.
 
DrewFu

DrewFu

Attempted to circumvent ban with an alt-account
Banned
Apr 19, 2018
10,360
PanickyFool said:
Average recession pricing is will below the recent drop.
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Right, but it seems the market is anticipating a recession. If we're in a short term recession, a move like this may be music the the market's ears.

Or it could tank the market. Who the hell knows right now.

Even when the market isn't volatile, it's very bipolar when it comes to interest rates.
 
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