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Stock Market Watch |OT| I've stocked up on market watches, what now?

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PopcornMegaphone

PopcornMegaphone

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,152
DiK4 said:
So, first time investing this morning. For those are well versed in this insanity (its very addicting)... What companies that you know of are the most likely to help in this pandemic.

Not the ones who are most likely to shoot up in price, just ones that will help in general during this health crisis.

So far I got a few shares of Medtronic and Vapo as they seem to be companies that will help when it comes to providing respiratory machines.

Any other suggestions? I want to feel good about my investments on a personal level regardless if they make me any money right now because I know we are going to be facing a difficult time.
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Since you're new to investing let me you on a little secret: Nobody in this thread knows anything. Don't time the market. It's a fools game. Just create a 3 fund portfolio and dollar cost average. After that thank God you took no market timing advice from this thread.
 
LanceX2

LanceX2

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,819
Guys......I made 800 dollars yesturday rhru mutual funds.......this seems crazy as I only have 15k in the IRAs.

but im actually more terrified. this means I can easily lose 800 in a day...my first time investing
 
plagiarize

plagiarize

Eating crackers
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
27,506
Cape Cod, MA
So... I predict Trump is either going to try and juice the markets end of day on March 31st, if they're within range of not ending down for the quarter, OR, panic the fuck out of them to give them a chance to not be down for the next quarter.

Anything to avoid a technical recession.
 

MasterChumly

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,895
I have friends starting to get laid off in the hospitality industry as I'm sure many others are as well. Nothing that has been introduced so far is going to prevent a recession in my mind. The ripple effects are just beginning for reduced demand.
 
Phantom

Phantom

Writer at Jeux.ca
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
1,446
Canada
Watch it crash come Monday because there's no way injecting trillions into a dying system works out in the end. The problem is that it's rotten at its core. Also everything is under lockdown now, can't even play sports, attend concerts, etc.. And I'm in Canada. We're not even at peak infection. Good luck.
 
Skel1ingt0n

Skel1ingt0n

Member
Oct 28, 2017
8,714
LanceX2 said:
Guys......I made 800 dollars yesturday rhru mutual funds.......this seems crazy as I only have 15k in the IRAs.

but im actually more terrified. this means I can easily lose 800 in a day...my first time investing
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$800? My sweet summer child ;-)

Assuming it's all for retirement and you're decades away, I'd worry absolutely zero about losing money.
 
CoolOff

CoolOff

Avenger
Oct 26, 2017
3,437
Honestly, with the developments around most of the major economies, us already being at the tail end of one of the longest expansions in history, and very few countermeasures with interest rates where they are, what is the proposed scenario where we over the coming couple of years don't hit a serious recession because of this? Not necessarily -08 bad, but with the demand shock this must lead to across so many industries what's an outlook that even keeps us at 0% in 12 months?

Like, I don't want to be pessimistic, and I'm very careful about feeling too sure about anything ever, but I'd really like to see a scenario analysis with positive to neutral outcomes here.
 
Sheepinator

Sheepinator

Member
Jul 25, 2018
27,923
plagiarize said:
So... I predict Trump is either going to try and juice the markets end of day on March 31st, if they're within range of not ending down for the quarter, OR, panic the fuck out of them to give them a chance to not be down for the next quarter.

Anything to avoid a technical recession.
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Stock market has nothing to do with recession label. I always thought it was two consecutive quarters of GDP decline but apparently that's not quite accurate either. It's, "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."

www.investopedia.com

Recession: What Is It and What Causes It

A recession is a significant decline in economic activity that lasts longer than a few months.
www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com
 
plagiarize

plagiarize

Eating crackers
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
27,506
Cape Cod, MA
Sheepinator said:
Stock market has nothing to do with recession label. I always thought it was two consecutive quarters of GDP decline but apparently that's not quite accurate either. It's, "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."

www.investopedia.com

Recession: What Is It and What Causes It

A recession is a significant decline in economic activity that lasts longer than a few months.
www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com
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Good to know.

And there's clearly no dodging that then.
 
MrBob

MrBob

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,668
We did it folks reached almost peak fear this past week and where it was at the Dec 2018 low.



This is when the Fed pivoted and the market made a major rebound. The major difference here is there is still a lot of unknowns on how the usa economy is going to be affected so I would be shocked at some kind of reversal rally that sustains.
 
Servbot24

Servbot24

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
43,052
For the moment I am considering last week the so called bottom, at least for when I will personally go all in. I'll wait til next time that happens.
 
ItsBobbyDarin

ItsBobbyDarin

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
1,905
Egyptian residing in Denmark
Sheepinator said:
Stock market has nothing to do with recession label. I always thought it was two consecutive quarters of GDP decline but apparently that's not quite accurate either. It's, "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."

www.investopedia.com

Recession: What Is It and What Causes It

A recession is a significant decline in economic activity that lasts longer than a few months.
www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com
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Your definition of a recession is right from an Economist perspective. The definition can change from one to another, but the consensus among economic scholars is 2 consecutive quarters with a decline in GDP.

Source: I'm an economist.
 
WestEgg

WestEgg

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,047
ItsBobbyDarin said:
Your definition of a recession is right from an Economist perspective. The definition can change from one to another, but the consensus among economic scholars is 2 consecutive quarters with a decline in GDP.

Source: I'm an economist.
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Question for you or anyone else with more economic knowledge than me: Wouldn't the first quarter of the year almost always see a decline from the last quarter of the year due to coming after holiday season and generally less going on?
 
ItsBobbyDarin

ItsBobbyDarin

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
1,905
Egyptian residing in Denmark
WestEgg said:
Question for you or anyone else with more economic knowledge than me: Wouldn't the first quarter of the year almost always see a decline from the last quarter of the year due to coming after holiday season and generally less going on?
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GDP is actually really hard to measure. GDP is revised every quarter when macroeconomic data is published. You can only get a precise GDP number of a given month or quarter, 3 years after.

In response to your question, it is seasonally adjusted.
 
Tracygill

Tracygill

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
1,853
The Left
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notice the timescale, several years and that during the crash there were rallies
 
Sir Hound

Sir Hound

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,197
LanceX2 said:
Guys......I made 800 dollars yesturday rhru mutual funds.......this seems crazy as I only have 15k in the IRAs.

but im actually more terrified. this means I can easily lose 800 in a day...my first time investing
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You haven't made anything and you wouldn't be losing anything. Gains and losses are locked in only when you sell. If you find yourself "losing" £800 you've found a great time to buy more.
 
Minilla

Minilla

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
3,514
Tokyo
Smell those dead cats.

Once the infection rates and hospitals get to the italian like situation in the US major cities, then you will see the major drops imo.
 
ChrisR

ChrisR

Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,794
SPY puts seem sooo tasty right now but I don't want to be burned, still see it heading down but the pump on Friday might last too til Tuesday
 
Sky Chief

Sky Chief

Member
Oct 30, 2017
3,376
I've thought it through a few times now and I don't see how the US isn't in a similar situation to Italy and Spain in another two weeks (some level of lockdown with minimal economic activity allowed). The only near term outcomes that I can see are further massive drops. What should I do with my IRA to at least preserve where it is right now? Right now I'm in a 2045 Mutual Fund. Should I switch out to all bonds for the near future or what? I don't care if I miss out on some short term gains but I work for a startup and despite our success so far an economic downtown could bankrupt us quickly. I have cash savings to keep me going for a while but I want my IRA to be safe just in case I have to cash it out if we go into a prolonged recession.
 
dean_rcg

dean_rcg

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,270
Bill Gates stepping down
Apple shutting stores
UK and Ireland flight ban
Most of Europe on lockdown
Daily cases going parabolic
Governments plans being exposed as next to useless
The general public still going out as if nothing's changed
Etc

For me the question is why would stocks go up?
 
greepoman

greepoman

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,957
dean_rcg said:
Bill Gates stepping down
Apple shutting stores
UK and Ireland flight ban
Most of Europe on lockdown
Daily cases going parabolic
Governments plans being exposed as next to useless
The general public still going out as if nothing's changed
Etc

For me the question is why would stocks go up?
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If it appears under control in the US.
If the legislation to help people passes and is actually good
If more aid for business is passed
Saudi Arabia an Russia come to an agreement about oil and stops flooding market with $25 oil

These are all huge ifs and there's a good chance none of them happen. Would definitely at least provide some stability which I think is something people are looking for.

But that's just in the short term. Once numbers start to come in and job losses start piling up it could be another blood bath.
 
dean_rcg

dean_rcg

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,270
Nike to close all stores in the US, Canada, Western Europe and Australasia.

We have no concept of how bad this is going to get in the next few weeks, other than that it will be far, far worse than even the biggest pessimists think
 
aerts1js

aerts1js

Member
May 11, 2019
1,384
I hope it stays low for at least another week or so because i get paid this Thursday (i know, selfish) but does seem that things are becoming more under control.......
 
Jer

Jer

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,196
aerts1js said:
I hope it stays low for at least another week or so because i get paid this Thursday (i know, selfish) but does seem that things are becoming more under control.......
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Yeah I'm not getting that impression at all. Those airport customs scenes yesterday were terrifying and highlight that the federal response is still an incoherent mess, and that's just one example. Unfortunately I feel like we've got a long way to go before we're at the bottom.
 
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