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Deleted member 135

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Oct 25, 2017
11,682
Well... He doesn't bypass Congress. He has a completely complicit Congress.

But the point is taken. We will see if in fact he can pass anything via EO or reconciliation.
He could have his Education Secretary forgive all outstanding federal student loans without Congress, that would be a huge boost to the economy.
 

Deleted member 8741

user requested account closure
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Oct 26, 2017
4,917
If Trump has taught us anything, you can just bypass Congress a lot of the time if you're determined enough.

He actually has failed on a number of efforts because of Congress. Killing the ACA for example. And that was with a majority house and senate. Do you really think Bernie is going to come in with a flipped senate and house even if he does win?

EAs won't be able to accomplish what he aspires to do.
 

Sr Kitsune

Prophet of Truth
Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,954
Baja California, Mexico
My investments on the US market got hit pretty badly, but should recover eventually. Unless COVID-19 is the real deal and the next pandemic is unavoidable, but if that is the case why would I need the money? Higher worries by then.

On a side note, what I've currently invested on my local market (MEX) in mining companies is doing pretty great +5%
 

MrBob

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,668
Yeah I'm actually expecting a recession later this year. One quarter of severely depressed Chinese and Asian output has to make a dent some how.

Not saying to take it lightly or hope for one to occur , but if it's gonna happen, I hope it happens during the fall. Just in time for US elections.
One quarter won't lead to a recession. If it persists beyond a quarter then we could face a big issue worldwide.

The irony though is that the virus will likely lead to lower expectations by analysts for earnings, which could lead to easier earning beats for companies and then pumping the market higher.
 

Deleted member 8741

user requested account closure
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Oct 26, 2017
4,917
I'm in the same boat. Time to read up on taxable accounts!

Yah. I steadily contribute to both my wife's and my 401ks to the max every year despite the situation. I haven't been dumping a lot of other money into the market currently because I think it's overpriced overall. My retirement account to that level is enough to be in the market for me currently. I'll up it if we actually pullback significantly though.
 

gimmmick

Member
Nov 26, 2017
1,877
So does the corona virus need to effect more people in different countries for this economy to finally hit a recession ?
 

DrewFu

Attempted to circumvent ban with an alt-account
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Apr 19, 2018
10,360
So does the corona virus need to effect more people in different countries for this economy to finally hit a recession ?
Right now, China is by far the most affected, and even their economy will likely be fine. This would have to completely spiral out of control, which it doesn't look like it will (Chinese cases have steadily dropped and overall active cases are going down).

Time will tell, but my personal, unprofessional opinion, is this is more of a blip than a recession causing event.
 
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Tamanon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,723
Have we used Down Jones yet?

Recession won't officially manifest for a long time, if only because we haven't even had our first quarter of contraction yet.
 
Oct 27, 2017
21,514
Why are people still talking about points, when it's irrelevant. % is all that matters.

Additionally, the DOW is a stupid thing to follow. It's composed of just 30 companies. Not even remotely an indicator of the overall US stock market.
The S&P 500 is at least a bit better. The Russell 3000 is the best for how US stocks are doing. It tracks about 98% of the US stock market.The DOW is just irrelevant bullshit no one should be paying attention to.
 

Pasha

Banned
Jan 27, 2018
3,018
Can't wait for the media to spin this as "Fears of the momentum of Socialist Bernie Sanders!".

This artificial bubble is being supported by so much bullshit scaffolding. Good luck, whoever has a legitimate reliance on the markets.
Isn't that a blatant admission that Bernie will beat Trump?
I mean surely the big brained individuals on Wall St. know that there is NO WAY that a SOCIALIST can beat the great Donald Trump!
 

Stinkles

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
20,459
The market grew because the economy has been strong and corporate earning have largely been great. It has little to do with Trump. If anything, Trump has held the market back from being even higher, due to his trade wars and bluster.

Trust me I prefer your take, but I don't actually believe it. I suppose that argument has validity - but I can't obviously prove the negatives until they happen. Which I also hope I'm wrong about. But I've seen this movie five times in my lifetime in two different but similar countries with similar rhythms. Trump of course is a wild card.
 

samoyed

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
15,191
SPY is also down but DOW has more name recognition at home and abroad.

If you're writing articles for non-finance people you will mention the DOW. If you're targeting finance people you will mention SPY/RUT.

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NASDAQ (tech index) also took shit.

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feline fury

Member
Dec 8, 2017
1,538
Right now, China is by far the most affected, and even their economy will be fine. This would have to completely spiral out of control, which it doesn't look like it will (Chinese cases have steadily dropped and overall active cases are going down).
I don't think we know the lasting impact this ordeal will have on the Chinese economy yet. Aside from the human cost, there's also trade ramifications with other countries. With the trade war and tariffs, there was already talk of shifting manufacturing away from China to other SEA countries. The disruption of supply chains this has caused will surely give corporations in other countries pause with keeping all their eggs in the China basket.
 

DrewFu

Attempted to circumvent ban with an alt-account
Banned
Apr 19, 2018
10,360
I don't think we know the lasting impact this ordeal will have on the Chinese economy yet. Aside from the human cost, there's also trade ramifications with other countries. With the trade war and tariffs, there was already talk of shifting manufacturing away from China to other SEA countries. The disruption of supply chains this has caused will surely give corporations in other countries pause with keeping all their eggs in the China basket.
Like I edited, time will tell. My unprofessional opinion is the coronavirus is closer to an economic blip than a recession causing event.
 
Oct 27, 2017
16,552
Gone lower than the price in Dec, it's definitely a good time to buy if you think this will blow over, and just based on how it recovered from similar drops over the past few years.

If this is the start of a global downturn we have a lot of room to drop, however.
We expecting the recession this soon?

Whats triggering the drop? Anywhere to read up on this, it's really intriguing.
 

rostad

Member
Oct 27, 2017
147
We expecting the recession this soon?

Whats triggering the drop? Anywhere to read up on this, it's really intriguing.


I think people dying of corona in Iran, Italy and S Korea brings the whole market down as businesses are closing down one after one.. Because if thats the stategy here my local businesses in Sweden will close when corona arrives.
 

Pwnz

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,279
Places
Trust me I prefer your take, but I don't actually believe it. I suppose that argument has validity - but I can't obviously prove the negatives until they happen. Which I also hope I'm wrong about. But I've seen this movie five times in my lifetime in two different but similar countries with similar rhythms. Trump of course is a wild card.

No you're take is right (I'm not drewfu dont let the avatar confuse) based on the global PMI. Struggling to stay above 50 despite all of the stimulus.
 

DrewFu

Attempted to circumvent ban with an alt-account
Banned
Apr 19, 2018
10,360
Also, for those who are easily freaked out - remember tonight's future prices (which will undoubtedly be bad) are largely Asia (China) reacting to today's trading and doesn't necessarily reflect what tomorrow will actually be.
 

samoyed

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
15,191
Do you folks have any recommended reading? So far I've been reading Ramit Sethi's I Will Teach You To Be Rich
IMO anyone selling you a book on how to invest is intending to profit off of the book so view their advice with skepticism. Ditto Youtubers. If you must read something, read books written by dead people, you don't need to worry about the profit motive if they're dead.

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