The Coronavirus Could Reshape Global Order

thewienke · Mar 26, 2020

Comparing it to the Suez Canal Crisis seems weird to me. I kinda get what they're going for but it's hardly a similar situation since that was more about the pecking order of the western powers which was already mostly decided by the end of WW2 since the US physically came out of the war unscathed.

I don't expect most Western nations to follow China anywhere or look to them for any kind of leadership other than as the people that make the stuff that we need. To me that is a fundamentally different relationship than the UK submitting to the US as being the de facto head of NATO and the western powers. The system of government in China is too incompatible with Western ideology to build any lasting leadership.

Between Brexit and the US taking a step backwards on the world stage, it's more a vacuum is being created than one nation is asserting supremacy over another nation. The elephant in the room that will also continue to make this different than the UK/US relationship during the Suez Canal crisis is that the US still has one of the top 2 economies in the world and the largest military capable of global power projection. Somebody like a combined EU with an actual military force that could be projected globally would have both the economy and the military might to supplant the US in a vacuum situation.

KoopaTheCasual · Mar 26, 2020

electricblue said:
They might throw some more money around but China's government isn't going to project soft power. I'm not convinced.

Tik Tok is a major thing.

shintoki · Mar 26, 2020

Kernel said:
I think Blizzard found out about China's soft power.

That wouldn't be soft power, that would be hard power since it falls under economical threat. Forcing a company to promote a message or else you bar them from business is not soft power.

Deleted member 5159 · Mar 26, 2020

its only a matter of time. which is problematic but both europe and the states have been declining, mainly to their neo liberalism love affair. so, im afraid we all fucked unless people grow balls and a political conscience to move left, towards real democracy by and for the people and international solidarity. I feel theres too much brainwashing and obsession by and for the big capital to save the human species though. Maybe when large parts of continents drown they'll open their eyes, too late though

Pandora012 · Mar 26, 2020

krazen said:
Of course. That said, I think the mileage may vary; if it just involves the pandemic response and just the immediate economic fallout from the shock then nah, people's memories aren't THAT short and China took hella economic blows too.

But if the US continues to bungle our response which means a real depression here while China just flicks a switch and continues to powerhouse along in a few weeks...fuck. What they were hoping would have taken a few more decades as far as global power supremacy might just take a couple of years

Hmmm if for whatever reason the us goes into a depression. It's gonna take the world economy with it. China for sure isn't immune to what's happening outside it boarders now. Also, their economic growth is an issue, even without this pandemic. They weren't looking so hot. Well honestly most places weren't.

Zaeia · Mar 26, 2020

It makes sense that this would accelerate their growing international leadership. They are the first to successfully dealt with the virus, and are in a great position financially to provide aid. The "one belt, one road" projects have laid the foundation for relationships that will only strengthen via cooperation to combat the spread of Covid-19.

There is a potential for a situation (at least regionally) like that which occurred after the Asian Financial Crisis. Japan launched the Human Security initiative and (refocused) rebranded many regional IOs in the aftermath of the crisis. China had already become the priority within organizations that previously followed Japanese leadership (and by association U.S. tangential priorities). It would make sense that such a trend is accelerated, especially since our response has been so horrible.

The real damage had been done when this administration reneged on funds to the international community. After this pandemic, most countries will undoubtedly be taking a hard look at China.

Wrapped in Black · Mar 26, 2020

The Chinese government is leagues more corrupt than the U.S.', so I hope this doesn't happen.

thediamondage · Mar 26, 2020

I'm pretty sure the country/government that STARTED the global pandemic and has done its utmost to cover up everything about it including actual data on cases and deaths and the cause is not gonna be the new global leader.

Sure, their projection of power and control in resource rich areas like Africa and South America and their military flexing in Asia is going to have major impacts on global power over the next few years, but its much more likely the citizens of China have gotten angry about how their government reacted to Covid 19 and any lingering economic downturn will batter the chinese communist party, which has a very tenuous control over its populace. Combined with the utter dysfunction of the US government and Russian meddling in everything and European weakness/turmoil will definitely lead to interesting times.

DukeBlueBall · Mar 26, 2020

I think one thing that would win is the big data approach that China and South Korea used to tackle their outbreaks.

Western countries would have need to have a big debate about how surveillance, AI, data, and governance should work together after this.

thetrin · Mar 26, 2020

Fulminator said:
honestly with Trump as our leader and no good leadership prospect ahead of us (unless Bernie can somehow pull it off :/) , I'm not so sure the US should be in that position anymore anyways

China is a really terrible substitute.

Livingskeletons · Mar 26, 2020

Come to think of it, what is the situation in Russia right now?

spam musubi · Mar 26, 2020

DukeBlueBall said:
I think one thing that would win is the big data approach that China and South Korea used to tackle their outbreaks.

Western countries would have need to have a big debate about how surveillance, AI, data, and governance should work together after this.

This is the same big data China uses to oppress ethnic minorities, fwiw

DukeBlueBall · Mar 26, 2020

spam musubi said:
This is the same big data China uses to oppress ethnic minorities, fwiw

Hence I said debate.

Patriot Act happened after 911. We'll see what gets passed now.

Neo C. · Mar 26, 2020

The current crisis only accelerates the trend we've seen since Trump won the election. It was clear back then that the US is going to lose the international leadership.

kess · Mar 26, 2020

Lincoln was essentially correct in his assessment that the only thing that could really bring down America was from within. That said, America is losing initiative in part because its corruption is becoming so apparent, and the line becomes harder to tow because every other great power isn't self destructing as they were in the early 20th century.

Lots of hegemons survived a long time taking one step forward and two back, until luck ran out.

Dhx · Mar 26, 2020

Narrator: It didn't.

Javier23 · Mar 26, 2020

Dhx said:
Narrator: It didn't.

Good luck with that.

Dhx · Mar 26, 2020

Javier23 said:
Good luck with that.

China has a myriad of issues working against it. This article has no meat and points to various "possibilities" to play off the current uncertainty of the crisis.

China's biggest concern right now is making sure a second wave of Covid doesn't lead to massive political unrest and instability.

Keldroc · Mar 26, 2020

HammerOfThor said:
Sorry, as much as Trump sucks, China is the last thing we should want leading anything.

This was inevitable the moment Trump was elected. He was always going to hand the 21st century to China, with or without this pandemic.

Evodelu · Mar 26, 2020

Pieces are moving... there's going to be something new on the other side of this.

Xando · Mar 26, 2020

Kernel said:
Lots of propaganda online on how Russia is sending assistance to Italy where the EU did not.

They're totally going for the good guy image.

I'd say it's almost inevitable that China ends up on top within 20 years.

Turns out the aid russia send was useless and it was mostly a PR stunt.

Pixels · Mar 26, 2020

China will be the new leader

UnderNewOwnership · Mar 26, 2020

Keldroc said:
This was inevitable the moment Trump was elected. He was always going to hand the 21st century to China, with or without this pandemic.

Unfortunately yes. He is physiologically incapable of perceiving China as anything more than "that place where all the cheap stuff comes from".

ps3ud0 · Mar 26, 2020

As soon as Trump got elected America signalled it was abdicating the global throne. No country thinks you are special no more and that's doubly so for their citizens.

It's been coming for years that China would become the biggest superpower and while I'm not happy it could be them I don't want it to be the likes of America or Russia neither.

The US is one shit yardstick to aim at for any country when it comes to a civilisation that takes care of it's population...

ps3ud0 8)

Zed · Mar 26, 2020

Assuming the death count is high across the world, people are not going to be looking to China for leadership when the CCP was responsible for covering things up. If the CCP did not censor the spread of the virus in the early stages there is a chance it never would of become a pandemic or even a major issue in China. If there is a high deathtoll I am guessing there is going to be a lot of anti-Chinese attitudes across the world.

I would guess countries would try to decouple their economies from China as much as they can. However, as China is the largest country in the world, there is only so much that can be done and China will still play a major role in geopolitics.

Xando · Mar 26, 2020

Xi was speaking with Merkel(even called her at home during quarantine) and other EU leaders twice this week the chinese sent doctors and millions of medical equipment while the US can't even coordinate a G7 response without fighting against their allies.

Zed said:
Assuming the death count is high across the world, people are not going to be looking to China for leadership when the CCP was responsible for covering things up. If the CCP did not censor the spread of the virus in the early stages there is a chance it never would of become a pandemic or even a major issue in China. If there is a high deathtoll I am guessing there is going to be a lot of anti-Chinese attitudes across the world.

I would guess countries would try to decouple their economies from China as much as they can. However, as China is the largest country in the world, there is only so much that can be done and China will still play a major role in geopolitics.

No offense but i have yet to hear someone outside of the US say this is all China's fault.

n00bs7ay3r · Mar 26, 2020

FaceHugger said:
To start: I'm old, seen these same cycles a few times.

A democrat is elected president and often a democrat led chamber of Congress (usually not both) along with them, and they fix things. Or at least get things moving in the right path. Then four years later the US people for some bizarre reason elects a republican and they proceed to wreck things again. Because that's what they do: they're stupid and believe in easily disprovable things.

We're in the middle of one these cycles now. If we the people do the right thing and elect a democrat crisis can be converted. If we fail to do so and keep a completely incompetent person in office, well, who knows.

Either way an incompetent person will be in office at this point. And I don't care how old you are, you have never seen anything like this before.

Herb Alpert · Mar 26, 2020

Makes sense.
Trump wanted to do things solo. Well, when every other countries will be out of this shit but still have closed borders with the US where his dumb decisions will make the disease still rage on, he'll have his cherished protectionnism...

Tragicomedy · Mar 26, 2020

China, yes.
Russia, nope.

Zaeia · Mar 26, 2020

Upon rethinking the article, I think it's perpetrating a myth and fanning the flames of nationalism. Many people see the U.S. super power status stemming from WWII which is correct, but its role as THE super power is only post-cold war. The assumption of a transfer of a unitary global power Is strange since the U.S. since 1989 is the sole example of unitary power. I believe we are Already in a bilateral, possibly multipolar system. China is already a super power, and the previous unitary system was an exception.

Punished Dan · Mar 26, 2020

Tchyna.

Deleted member 49535 · Mar 26, 2020

A country that voluntarily puts Trump in power doesn't deserve to be on top anyway.

tareqsalah · Mar 26, 2020

I actually get the feeling the world will be making some kind of a stand against china after all this settles down. They would hold china responsible for the economic disasters they suffered and will try to force china to pay the price. This wont be forgotten.

LossAversion · Mar 26, 2020

I, for one, embrace my new overlords. Please don't disappear me.

floridaguy954 · Mar 26, 2020

Brazil said:
It's acutely telling that you say you're old and have lived through the cycle a few times and still blame it on "some bizarre reason" as if there's no possible explanation for it or a way that cycle could change.

America can either actually embrace the values it claims to champion and change completely in doing so, or be left behind. One or the other will happen within our lifetimes.

The Last Wizard said:
Simple as this. Enough of the bs, we need to actually fight for The People and not corporations. Enough of the center and right shit, we need left policies and we need them now. It's not just the US at stake, it's humanity.

Agreed.

Neo C. · Mar 26, 2020

tareqsalah said:
I actually get the feeling the world will be making some kind of a stand against china after all this settles down. They would hold china responsible for the economic disasters they suffered and will try to force china to pay the price. This wont be forgotten.

All the leaders are already thanking China for the support (e.g. sending doctors and medical stuff to foreign countries). China will be forgiven.

Xando · Mar 26, 2020

tareqsalah said:
I actually get the feeling the world will be making some kind of a stand against china after all this settles down. They would hold china responsible for the economic disasters they suffered and will try to force china to pay the price. This wont be forgotten.

All this china is at fault talk is mostly american. I never heard any politician from europe say that. Infact in german media china is mostly presented as being very successful in containing the virus.

suedester · Mar 26, 2020

No ones going to follow a secretive, morally corrupt state like China in the long run.

Fallout-NL · Mar 26, 2020

Shoeless said:
and it's all slow decline from here.

It's been a rapid decline since the presidency was taken from Gore.

tolkir · Mar 26, 2020

LegendofJoe said:
The EU will be fine. Germany is a bright star in all of this mess.

The days of the Anglosphere dominating the world are over though.

EU will be fucked if they don't agree how to help most affected countries post-coronavirus.

Club Med takes on the Frugals in EU 'corona bond' bailout battle

Leaders of nine EU countries urged the bloc on Wednesday to issue a "common debt instrument" to cushion their economies from the shock of the coronavirus crisis, challenging Germany and others adamantly opposed to pooling risk across the continent.

www.reuters.com

But, anyways, this is the last thing people is thinking right now.

FaceHugger · Mar 26, 2020

n00bs7ay3r said:
Either way an incompetent person will be in office at this point. And I don't care how old you are, you have never seen anything like this before.

Driving to work in the morning and listening to the 9/11 attacks happen, hearing how thousands of people had just been murdered and it might keep going. Even the Pentagon attacked. Icons of our most storied city toppled with people inside them. Experiencing almost every business being paralyzed from fear. Many people didn't go outside for days and plenty of brown people got weird looks for a long time. Then finding out days later one of your closest friends died in a building as it crumbled to the ground.

No, it's not a pandemic. But don't tell me I haven't seen traumatic events before. You don't know me.

wandering · Mar 26, 2020

spam musubi said:
This is the same big data China uses to oppress ethnic minorities, fwiw

It's the kind of big data we're already using:

Smartphone data reveal which Americans are social distancing (and not)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/03/24/social-distancing-maps-cellphone-location/ Similar analysis for Europe:https://www.rcrwireless.com/20200325/big-data-analytics/umlaut-analyzes-network-behavior-changes-as-covid-19-spreads Link to scoreboard...

www.resetera.com

Burbank · Mar 26, 2020

pong123 said:
Not going to happen. America is going to remain superpower as long as they have literally the best companies in every industry. Apple, Microsoft, Google, Boeing, Tesla, Walmart, Amazon, Starbucks, FB, Intel, AMD, NVDA, Lockheed Martin JUST to name the few.

These companies not only are great but THE best in the world. Entire world uses their products. On top of that you have the best research facilities like NASA and universities like Harvard, MIT, Yale etc. and the biggest movie industry.

Ask any kid from emerging market where he wants to go when he grows up. Yes thats right, AMERICA. Worlds brightest and best minds will always be attracted to USA and not China or Russia.

yes Trump is an asshole and there is lot that needs to be fixed in the country but lets get real. USA is going to stay superpower

Can echo this sentiment as well when it comes to research. Though China are putting out impressive amounts of papers, the Americans sit on virtually all the world's top Universities, drawing top talent from the entire world.

Disagree with your "always" conclusions though. The US is in decline. It will not happen overnight but balance of these things will change to it's disadvantage. The insanely lucky position the US has occupied during the 20th century could never last.

Ac30 · Mar 26, 2020

Livingskeletons said:
Come to think of it, what is the situation in Russia right now?

Well the oil price war will hurt them badly (Ruble already lost 20% of its value in a month) and they're lead by an authoritarian strongman who has no real vision left for the country other than returning Russia to the late 80s, while stuck with a population that hasn't grown in decades.

So, nowhere near China.

Burbank said:
Disagree with your "always" conclusions though. The US is in decline. It will not happen overnight but balance of these things will change to it's disadvantage. The insanely lucky position the US has occupied during the 20th century could never last.

It's kind of wild watching the pre-eminent superpower destroy itself during peacetime. Gotta have that racial superiority though!

jkanownik · Mar 26, 2020

Peter Zeihan (an analyst that worked for 12 year for Stratfor and has written 3 books on the subject) has made a career out of saying that geopolitical trends mean that America is entrenched and no one else in the world will ever be stable enough to overtake them. And then even if they could America doesn't necessarily care because future instability is going to be so great that being the world leader has little benefit.

Some points he makes on Russia is that their entirely tied to oil and shale killed any hope of that saving them, their average male life expectancy is actually well below 65 and the combination of future demographic trends and weak post USSR education are going to create huge problems for them.

He expects that China's internal problems, diminishing global demand for their exports & demographic trends will prevent them from continuing to extend their reach outside of China. Right now China doesn't have a large retired population to take care of, but that is coming soon. Global warming is also going to hit them hard because they have 4 major port cities <10m above current sea levels. They'll probably also be stuck with a huge bill for Covid-19 and the initial cover up makes future Taiwan and HK negotiations/control even harder.

Schreckweg 5000 · Mar 26, 2020

chrisPjelly said:
The "source" is China literally reporting that it originated in a wet market in Wuhan, but the idea and history of how it was able to happen is generally here

Not saying the OP's article is advocating for this, but the world is in a much bleaker and dumber place than I thought if this is the leadership they want to step in place of the US

Chinese leaders are reliable in their stability and when they put pen to paper, you can somewhat trust their word.

US leaders tear treaties apart at a whim and insult leaders on Twitter like a petty 4chan troll. Noone wants to deal with that.

Dhx · Mar 26, 2020

jkanownik said:
Peter Zeihan (an analyst that worked for 12 year for Stratfor and has written 3 books on the subject) has made a career out of saying that geopolitical trends mean that America is entrenched and no one else in the world will ever be stable enough to overtake them. And then even if they could America doesn't necessarily care because future instability is going to be so great that being the world leader has little benefit.

Some points he makes on Russia is that their entirely tied to oil and shale killed any hope of that saving them, their average male life expectancy is actually well below 65 and the combination of future demographic trends and weak post USSR education are going to create huge problems for them.

He expects that China's internal problems, diminishing global demand for their exports & demographic trends will prevent them from continuing to extend their reach outside of China. Right now China doesn't have a large retired population to take care of, but that is coming soon. Global warming is also going to hit them hard because they have 4 major port cities <10m above current sea levels. They'll probably also be stuck with a huge bill for Covid-19 and the initial cover up makes future Taiwan and HK negotiations/control even harder.

Pretty much. Call me when countries start trading in their dollars.

Schreckweg 5000 said:
Chinese leaders are reliable in their stability and when they put pen to paper, you can somewhat trust their word.

US leaders tear treaties apart at a whim and insult leaders on Twitter like a petty 4chan troll. Noone wants to deal with that.

Authoritarian governments do tend to be consistent.

Deleted member 44129 · Mar 26, 2020

Window said:
The Coronavirus Could Reshape Global Order

China is maneuvering for international leadership during the coronavirus crisis as the United States falters.

www.foreignaffairs.com

Trump sits there like a giant fucking potato, China and Russia win. America loses. Jeeesus.

FriendlyNPC · Mar 26, 2020

Yeah, China will most certainly come out on top out of this crisis. Having a functional government helps I suppose...

spookyghost · Mar 26, 2020

The American century has been over for a while, really the reaction to 9/11 was the first bell ringing. Coronavirus is just spreading up the process.

The Coronavirus Could Reshape Global Order

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