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The Atlantic senior editor David Frum: Trump headed to historic political defeat in 2020 that likely will take down Republican Senate with him
- Thread starter Deleted member 3812
- Start date
I mean the odds were strongly against him wining in the first place so...
However coronavirus and economic meltdown might be making a big difference. Plus people voted Dem bigly in 2018 and Trump has had four years to show how much of a piece of shit he is and not kept any of his major promises.
However coronavirus and economic meltdown might be making a big difference. Plus people voted Dem bigly in 2018 and Trump has had four years to show how much of a piece of shit he is and not kept any of his major promises.
Would be great but Trump was also supposed to get his ass kicked in the 2016 election so Im not giving much thought to analysis when it comes to this particular brand of toxic waste.
Hopefully on the first Wednesday of November, we can all post this instead:
Trump has had almost 4 years to show everyone just how much of a fuck up he is, and the entire world has been watching closely. I'm confident he will lose, but I'm also not easing up on anything because of that feeling. I'm voting 100%, and making sure each of my family and friends do so as well.
Nate Silver had Trump at 28 percent chance of winning, which isn't nothing. If you heard there is a 28 percent chance of rain, you would bring an umbrella places just in case. People thought he was crazy and got mad because of other models showing a 91-95 percent chance, but he came out looking quite good. It's also worth noting that the Comey letter and non-stop coverage threw a wrench in things in the last weeks of the election, and without it I doubt Trump would have won.
I'll say this, Trump always has a chance as long as there is an electoral college and rust belt states have gotten redder than they were 15 or 20 years ago. But I think people get that now whereas they didn't get it in 2016, and the turnout in 2018 and these primaries show that people are fired up to remove Trump. I also think that people saying "but what about 2016" when all the polls show Biden leading are wrong because every election is different and people actually know who Trump is and how he would govern this time. However, if the thinking that polls don't matter and Trump could win gets them to vote, then I'm all for it.
Maybe I've just become too cynical, but I just don't see it happening. The arrogance of last cycle lead to the absolutely most baffling political upset in a very long time.
I have no faith until Herr Cheeto is out of the building and gone.
I have no faith until Herr Cheeto is out of the building and gone.
Dude, what the fuck happened to the guy from the Vietnam hearings?
The Trump silent majority being an actual thing in 2016 had me so fucking shook, but yea, these elections we've been winning since then does seem to indicate we have our own this time around
User banned (1 week): Conspiracy theorizing
Don't the mail-in ballots get "lost" in some backroom in some storage facility before magically being "found" again? And then those mail-in ballots basically never get counted? So those ballots effectively become votes that don't count?
Yeah, you can mail-in all you want. For that matter, we can go cast a real ballot all we want, too. Far as I can tell, we all still have to take it on faith that all the votes are being counted accurately. I can totally see how there are situations in which fuzzy accounting arises during elections to uphold certain narratives like, "Oh, this is an Obama state" and "This is a swing state."
Everybody hates speculation that's difficult to prove, but it's not too far from the realm of imagination that all this election chicanery amounts to the biggest social engineering hack with results already pre-determined.
I'm not going to engage with this other than to say, I don't engage with conspiracy theories.
Have a good day.
Correct, making statements like this makes people complacent and less likely for them to vote
Here's hoping Trumps base and trolls are the only ones voting for him this time around.
2016 Trump was kind of an unknown quantity. Even with the scandals he was seen as an outsider(lol drain the swamp). Also most people just knew him as the "you're fired" guy.
This pandemic has really made him look incompetent to average folks and even some conservatives. A guy I work with(low information voter personified) told me that up until the light/disinfectant comments he hadn't seen anything to turn him off from Trump.
Then you had Hillary. She was unliked by alot of people. The only ones that seem to dislike Biden, at least enough to not vote for him, is a small number of liberals who are most likely in blue states Trump has no chance of winning anyway.
2016 Trump was kind of an unknown quantity. Even with the scandals he was seen as an outsider(lol drain the swamp). Also most people just knew him as the "you're fired" guy.
This pandemic has really made him look incompetent to average folks and even some conservatives. A guy I work with(low information voter personified) told me that up until the light/disinfectant comments he hadn't seen anything to turn him off from Trump.
Then you had Hillary. She was unliked by alot of people. The only ones that seem to dislike Biden, at least enough to not vote for him, is a small number of liberals who are most likely in blue states Trump has no chance of winning anyway.
This shit is just Lucy holding the football for Charlie Brown. And every time, liberals go full steam ahead towards trying to kick the ball, and Lucy (the "resonable conservative" or whatever other talking head du jour) yanks the ball away again as we all fall on our ass once more.
Hilary wasn't fracturing democrats. She was unappealing to moderates.
The difference now is that Biden alienates leftists.
None of the polls seem to agree with a historical defeat so idk where he is getting this. Biden is up, sure, but the Senate as well? And it depends on turnout.
The amount of shamelessness it takes to make such bold declarations after being so wrong about 2016 astounds me.
It's somewhat likely that trump does worse than both HW in 1992 and Carter in 1980 in terms of the popular vote margin his opponent wins by despite getting a higher share of the vote than them. There is also a chance that trump does worse than HW in 1992 in terms of the EC,
It's like half the posters in this thread live in some alternate reality and are purposely ignoring the strong evidence that the writing is on the wall for Trump. 2018 and the turn out for the primary are huge flashing signs. It's all been a huge rejection of Trump and now with this pandemic and the state of the economy, it's only gotten worse for his chances.
I cannot wait to watch all of those Republican snakes in swing states trying to distance themselves from Trump when they're up for re-election in a post-Trump America. They're going to get eviscerated in debates and political advertising.
I look forward to the day they pretend he never happened like the Iraq War.
How anyone think Trump is a lock to get re-elected with like 20 million people unemployed is beyond me
David Frum in 2016:
www.theatlantic.com
(Headline: "Trump Has to Choose: Lose Like Dukakis, or Like Goldwater")
10 seconds of googling.
Will Trump Lose Like Dukakis, or Like Goldwater?
If the Republican nominee is defeated in a landslide, the party may be powerless to influence Clinton's agenda and administration.
www.theatlantic.com
10 seconds of googling.
I'm guessing historic because he's the incumbent Republican? Although even then you have Bill Clinton beating George H. W. Bush 370-168 in 1992, Carter beating Ford 297-240 in 1976 and if you wanna go back that far Roosevelt beating Hoover with a massive 472-59 in 1932.
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That, and the "Yeah but he won in 2016" and the "See this is why Trump won". I can't wait to see those lazy ass memes forcefully retired this year. I really cannot wait.
