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Tesla Delivers Record 112k in Q4 367k in 2019 +50% YoY

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Deleted member 8741

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Moist_Owlet said:
On the other hand apartment living with an EV seems like a pain
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Guess it depends on the apartment situation. There are chargers at Target here that can give you 80% in about 30 minutes. If you just park there and charge while running some errands every 4-5 days you're golden.

My work parking lot also has chargers here.

Seems like some small changes, but not as bad as people make it out to be.
 
Kernel

Kernel

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Oct 25, 2017
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Octodad said:
Guess it depends on the apartment situation. There are chargers at Target here that can give you 80% in about 30 minutes. If you just park there and charge while running some errands every 4-5 days you're golden
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I would think that repeated Supercharging will accelerate the deterioration of the battery. I'd charge via AC as much as possible and save fast charging for long trips and emergencies.
 
Mengy

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Oct 25, 2017
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Octodad said:
Guess it depends on the apartment situation. There are chargers at Target here that can give you 80% in about 30 minutes. If you just park there and charge while running some errands every 4-5 days you're golden.

My work parking lot also has chargers here.

Seems like some small changes, but not as bad as people make it out to be.
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You must live in a rare area, here in PA those kind of EV services just aren't available like that. The charging network outside of the cities or off the big highways is non existent.
 
captive

captive

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Octodad said:
I'm charting out some long trips now and, honestly, the range issue is largely overblown. There are so few areas that are problematic where I can get a charge. If you expand and also get a Chamdemo adapter, you can easily charge in the vast majority of places.
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even charging on 110 at 5mi/hr is usefull overnight. 10 to 12 hours while you sleep, eat, whatever gives you 50-60 miles of range.
 
Trickster

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Deleted member 39374

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Moist_Owlet said:
On the other hand apartment living with an EV seems like a pain
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I rent a townhouse, and the landlord won't let me use the outlets in my garage because they're connected to someone else's meter (lol)

Luckily this is LA so there's public L2 chargers on almost every block (prices vary, usually about $1/hour) and they just opened a Supercharger down the street from me + I installed NEMA 14-50 outlets at both of my offices so I can plug in with the Mobile Connector and get ~30/mph charging which tops off my Model 3 by lunch time
 
GiantEnemyCrab

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Moist_Owlet said:
On the other hand apartment living with an EV seems like a pain
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Yeah, I just wouldn't know where to charge the damn thing. I live in a small-ish town in Germany and while there are some charging stations around it just would be a pain. Add to that that when you go to such a station a) some are likely defect or b) in use by someone else (for far longer than a gas station unit would be) it doesn't fill me with confidence to own an EV.
 
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less

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Oct 25, 2017
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Well, it's holding strong in the low/mind $700s. Might be the new floor for it at least for this drop barring further bad news.
 
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Ryno23

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Ark invest Ceo Cathie Wood talking Tesla, explaining their 2024 $7k price target.
 
Mengy

Mengy

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I think Cathy is correct but I also think her timeline is a bit too eager. I can see Tesla hitting $7K in time but I think 2024 is just too soon.

Don't get me wrong, I would love it if she was spot on! I just think it won't happen that quickly, that's all.
 
thaivo

thaivo

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Nov 2, 2017
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Sold all my shares at $820. Hoping to hop back in when it stabilizes. My wife wanted me to keep half of it in there, but I was concerned about a large sell off. Sort of selfish, but I wouldn't be fussed if it fell past $400, I'd be all in again. Sort of risky, but I believe in Tesla in the long term.
 
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thaivo

thaivo

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Nov 2, 2017
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Octodad said:
I don't blame you given the number of shares you had.

Why not buy in again though at 100 shares or something if it drops again?
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Thanks. I definitely will be a Tesla stock owner again soon... I mean, we're going to have two Tesla's in our drive way in 2021. I still see this as a + $1,000 stock. Hopefully, I can jump in soon and just leave it there. I agree with you that I'd prefer a more natural growth, rather than these wild swings... I did profit from this recent one though!
 
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Mengy said:
I think Cathy is correct but I also think her timeline is a bit too eager. I can see Tesla hitting $7K in time but I think 2024 is just too soon.

Don't get me wrong, I would love it if she was spot on! I just think it won't happen that quickly, that's all.
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No way is Tesla hitting $7,000 within the timeframe she provided barring more absurd insanity that keeps on compounding.
 

Deleted member 8741

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less said:
No way is Tesla hitting $7,000 within the timeframe she provided barring more absurd insanity that keeps on compounding.
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I mean, I kinda agree but what are you arguing against directly given her data.

Hell, I'll easily be happy if it's the low end of $1500 she predicts.

If it actually ever hits $15000 I'll be driving two Teslas.
 
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Octodad said:
I mean, I kinda agree but what are you arguing against directly given her data.

Hell, I'll easily be happy if it's the low end of $1500 she predicts.

If it actually ever hits $15000 I'll be driving two Teslas.
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Her timeframe mainly. Take AI/self-driving for example...it isn't going to be that relevant in four/five years barring some drastic leap. Not enough to boost Tesla stock up $7k.
 
Mengy

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less said:
Her timeframe mainly. Take AI/self-driving for example...it isn't going to be that relevant in four/five years barring some drastic leap. Not enough to boost Tesla stock up $7k.
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Eh, not so sure about that. I think full autonomous will go live later than Cathy or Elon suggest it will be, BUT when it does go live and Tesla's robotaxi's start going into service it's going to make them tons of money in very short order.

Full autonomous driving will make Tesla a lot of money from them selling the service to Tesla car owners alone. The margins on it are going to be huge for them.

I still think $7K by 2024 is too ambitious, but then I never thought we'd be seeing $960 by February either so what the hell, LOL.

If it hits $7K I will literally retire. If it hits $15K I'll retire even happier!
 
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Mengy said:
Eh, not so sure about that. I think full autonomous will go live later than Cathy or Elon suggest it will be, BUT when it does go live and Tesla's robotaxi's start going into service it's going to make them tons of money in very short order.

Full autonomous driving will make Tesla a lot of money from them selling the service to Tesla car owners alone. The margins on it are going to be huge for them.

I still think $7K by 2024 is too ambitious, but then I never thought we'd be seeing $960 by February either so what the hell, LOL.

If it hits $7K I will literally retire. If it hits $15K I'll retire even happier!
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Ah...that's what I meant. Autonomous driving won't be ready to make a big difference with the timeframe she has given. But when it does, especially if it is one of the best if not the first, it will be titanic and the sky is the limit when it comes to stock price. In four/five years...whatever Tesla has in that regard will likely fall within useful at times but not game-changing.
 
Ether_Snake

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Self-driven cars are big data collectors. The data can be sold. When parked their GPUs can also be used to make computations for cloud data processing, with data streamed in and out. They will literally become mobile computers, or eGPUs.
 
jchap

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I've made a lot of money on Tesla over the last 18 months but its time to pull that rip cord!
 

2pac_71

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@7k is the valuation not about 1.3 trillion? And @15k it'll be 2.7 to 3.0 trillion ? Like sure I guess it can get there in 5 years lol. Anything is possible but to say tesla will be the most valuable company in the world in 5 years is pretty nuts. Maybe my math is wrong ?
 

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Mackaveli said:
@7k is the valuation not about 1.3 trillion? And @15k it'll be 2.7 to 3.0 trillion ? Like sure I guess it can get there in 5 years lol. Anything is possible but to say tesla will be the most valuable company in the world in 5 years is pretty nuts. Maybe my math is wrong ?
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TBF the 15k is a 25% chance and assumes auto taxis. I think that's some BIG ifs, but if they were to pull that off by 2024. I think it's possible to be a 15k stock. That's a lot of ifs though.
 

2pac_71

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Oct 25, 2017
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Octodad said:
TBF the 15k is a 25% chance and assumes auto taxis. I think that's some BIG ifs, but if they were to pull that off by 2024. I think it's possible to be a 15k stock. That's a lot of ifs though.
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even then to be valued at 2.7 to 3 trillion is insane. Like did she say howmuch profit tesla would make in 2024 to justify their price or growth rate ? I know the taxi business could be huge but what numbers are being used?
 
sfedai0

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Octodad said:
That would be current value predictions, meaning splits would be factored in as just a variant of the same number.
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I understand what a stock split is. What I am saying is that Tesla unlike Amazon, would likely opt to split kinda like Apple and Netflix did when their stock prices started getting in to the 4 digits.
 
Neo C.

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As far as I understand, the 7k target is with autonomous as a afterthought, the 15k is the one with a full autonomous fleet. For the 7k to be hit, not everything needs to be played out according to keikaku, Tesla "just" needs to stay ahead of the pack in the main tech (batteries, data accumulation, network etc.).
 

Deleted member 8852

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Moist_Owlet said:
On the other hand apartment living with an EV seems like a pain
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Living in an apartment and owning a Model 3 SR+, it's not too bad for me. Really depends on public charging infrastructure and whether or not you can charge at your workplace.

Complicated said:

Pretty funny. The marginal sales target beat they reported that started this little rally was because a subsidy on electric vehicles was going away in December in the Netherlands.
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Also living in the Netherlands, got my car in december. Obviously there are going to be hardly any tesla sales in January, everyone was set to get their car last year and a some people even got cars registered last year in January.

Yeah the subsidy has been decreased but it isn't completely gone, it is still quite a good deal. (BIK tax is 22% for ICE cars vs 8% now for BEV) It might look like a doubling on paper, but compared to buying an ICE car it's still a huge difference.

I imagine we'll see stronger sales after the first few months as new prospective tesla leasers start looking into getting one.
 
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Ryno23

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Neo C. said:
As far as I understand, the 7k target is with autonomous as a afterthought, the 15k is the one with a full autonomous fleet. For the 7k to be hit, not everything needs to be played out according to keikaku, Tesla "just" needs to stay ahead of the pack in the main tech (batteries, data accumulation, network etc.).
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Tesla-price-target-scenarios_ARK-Invest-1500x805.png

The 7k is just basically the middle ground of all their scenarios. $3400 is max best case EV company only scenario assuming no autonomous robotaxi network.

Looking at it, they only seem to be giving a 30% probability that the autonomous network gets launched by the end of 2024...which honestly seems pretty reasonable to me. 70% chance it doesn't happen

Another interesting thing is, none of their price targets even look at solar/battery storage at all, right now they consider that all bonus I believe. Elon says will grow to be just as large as the auto business. Hell he forcasts 1k solar roof installs a week alone, each one brings in the revenue of a Model 3
 
Neo C.

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If the solar and battery storage businesses become bigger, Ark invest can adjust their target again. It wasn't too long ago when their bull case was 4k within 5 year, lol.
 
Trickster

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Neo C. said:
If the solar and battery storage businesses become bigger, Ark invest can adjust their target again. It wasn't too long ago when their bull case was 4k within 5 year, lol.
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To be fair, Cathie and ARK were talking about 5 year 4000 price targets back in 2018 I believe. So at this point that would mean 4000 within 3-3½ years :P

Ryno23 said:


Ark invest Ceo Cathie Wood talking Tesla, explaining their 2024 $7k price target.
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I love watching Cathie Woods talk about Tesla in general. Seems genuinely passionate and convincing. Don't really like how she essentially dodges that question about how much money Tesla will have to make in a scenario where ARK assumes a 7000 stock price though. Surely she should have some idea of that?
 
ChrisR

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Oct 26, 2017
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It isn't impossible to see the stock much higher than it is now assuming a corner on the autonomous taxi market. But I don't know if people want to jump to no ownership as quickly as some might think
 
Trickster

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ChrisR said:
It isn't impossible to see the stock much higher than it is now assuming a corner on the autonomous taxi market. But I don't know if people want to jump to no ownership as quickly as some might think
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Uber and Lyft being as popular as they are would kinda seem to indicate that a lot of people are fine with no ownership. I believe this is especially true for younger people
 
Kernel

Kernel

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ChrisR said:
It isn't impossible to see the stock much higher than it is now assuming a corner on the autonomous taxi market. But I don't know if people want to jump to no ownership as quickly as some might think
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I think autonomous taxis will be more expensive than car ownership unless you only need a car occasionally.
 
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Trickster said:
Crazy that the stock is still so active. It's moved like 10% since the opening
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No surprises here. Barring some drastic bad news news Tesla is going to be a crazy ride for quite some time to come. It dipped below $700 for a bit but anyone that bailed at that point probably regrets it a bit right now lol. It'll hit $800+ again soon.
 
DrEvil

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I sold 2 at $920 that were originally bought at $180 and have a few still in the game, I'll hold those for a good while, but managed to reinvest the profits into GOOGL and picked up some more ARKK with the leftover.

Gotta diversify a little bit, and the TSLA profits have helped expand my overall portfolio, lovin' this year so far.
 
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Octodad said:
Why not buy back in then? It's cheaper now then when you sold.
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Risk is relatively higher as it is possible that the stock can drop quite a bit in the short term due to the wackiness it has had. When combined with possibly having better use to spend that profit on...sometimes it is just better to take the profit and use it for something else.
 

Spine Crawler

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Octodad said:
Why not buy back in then? It's cheaper now then when you sold.
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Im thinking about it.. or maybe some sony or microsoft.

Tesla still trades at 100 times revenue or something. I bought a lot of amazon at 1900 in 2018 and it was dead money for 2 years. Only recently the stock is in the red. So yeah im a bit careful now when the stock had such a great run.
 
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