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Ryno23

Banned
Dec 13, 2017
1,097

In the fourth quarter, we achieved record production of almost 105,000 vehicles and record deliveries of approximately 112,000 vehicles. In 2019, we delivered approximately 367,500 vehicles, 50% more than the previous year and in line with our full year guidance
We continue to focus on expanding production in both the US as well as our newly launched facility in Shanghai. Despite breaking ground at Gigafactory Shanghai less than 12 months ago, we have already produced just under 1,000 customer salable cars and have begun deliveries. We have also demonstrated production run-rate capability of greater than 3,000 units per week, excluding local battery pack production which began in late December.
upload_2020-1-3_8-43-59-png.495949


367,500 delivered in 2019 compared to 245,240 in 2018

112,000 in Q4 19 compared to 90,700 in Q4 18. 112k beats the previous record of 97k set in Q3 19

Stock is up ~2% premarket to an all time high of ~$440 (which is big considering the global market concerns with Iran it was down 2% before the announcement). 112k topped Wall Street estimates of 106k


It will be interesting to see their 2020 guidance, but with China Gigafactory online(customer deliverys start Jan 7) and Model Y launch in ~Q2 I expect no less than 550k delivered in 2020.... Any of our resident experts claiming "bankruptcy" and "growth story over" and "demand issues" non stop the last few years care to chime in yet with how wrong they were?
 
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Veliladon

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,557
Someone lend me $42K. The premium on a $437.50 call expiring on the 10th is $1770 right now.
 

PeskyToaster

Member
Oct 27, 2017
15,312
I've been considering getting a tesla more and more. An electric vehicle would be perfect for my short commute.
 

JasoNsider

Developer
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
2,141
Canada
Yeah, and I'm thinking the stock is going to go higher in 2020 if Tesla makes the battery lifetime breakthrough many are expecting.
 

Vexxan

Member
Oct 28, 2017
115
Happy to see them showing good numbers, the world needs all electric cars it can get. Hopefully the more traditional car makers will bet big on electric this year, I can't see my next car being anything other than electric,
 

-Pyromaniac-

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,362
Happy to see them showing good numbers, the world needs all electric cars it can get. Hopefully the more traditional car makers will bet big on electric this year, I can't see my next car being anything other than electric,
I feel similarly except for the second part. I like seeing Tesla successful because I want electric cars to be the norm sooner rather than later.

But obviously I can't imagine owning one for my next car because they're nowhere near affordable. Especially in Canada. I also don't live in a house so charging would still remain a bit of a hassle.

But I hope everyone else keeps buying em.
 
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Maxximo

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
636
Bought @190 and sold @350(1/3) and @410(the rest of the position). I usually never sell the stocks of a company i like but given TSLA volatility i thought that kind of grought wasn't sustainable...well now I'm not going to chase after it but damn Elon...
 

ChrisR

Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,795
Bought @190 and sold @350(1/3) and @410(the rest of the position). I usually never sell the stocks of a company i like but given TSLA volatility i thought that kind of grought wasn't sustainable...well now I'm not going to chase after it but damn Elon...
Stonks only go up.
 

Vexxan

Member
Oct 28, 2017
115
I feel similarly except for the second part. I like seeing Tesla successful because I want electric cars to be the norm sooner rather than later.

But obviously I can't imagine owning one for my next car because they're nowhere near affordable. Especially in Canada. I also don't live in a house so charging would still remain a but of a hassle.

But I hope everyone else keeps buying em.

Yeah, the price is the biggest obstacle for me as well. I hope by the time I need a new car, the prices on used cars are somewhat reasonable.
 

PeskyToaster

Member
Oct 27, 2017
15,312
Same but it's hard to get rid of my Hellcat. I'm absolutely in love with her. Also I have no way to charge at home (Own a townhome). No charging capabilities at work, and no superchargers near me.

Yeah I'd have to consider the charging situation in my area as well. Right now I live very close to work so I could charge from home but it is something I'd have to think about on a trip. The infrastructure is definitely in its infancy still.
 
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Ryno23

Ryno23

Banned
Dec 13, 2017
1,097
Yeah I'd have to consider the charging situation in my area as well. Right now I live very close to work so I could charge from home but it is something I'd have to think about on a trip. The infrastructure is definitely in its infancy still.

Tesla just updated the Supercharger map with 2020 construction plans, at least for Canada and US they are adding an absolute ton worth looking again... I didn't look at the rest of the world

The grey ones are planned construction
 

JasoNsider

Developer
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
2,141
Canada
I feel similarly except for the second part. I like seeing Tesla successful because I want electric cars to be the norm sooner rather than later.

But obviously I can't imagine owning one for my next car because they're nowhere near affordable. Especially in Canada. I also don't live in a house so charging would still remain a bit of a hassle.

But I hope everyone else keeps buying em.

I'm Canadian as well and agree that the prices are prohibitive. However, I see Tesla's moves putting pressure on the entire industry, and it will eventually trickle down to us plebs
 

pj-

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,659
They are pumping out an impressive number of cars with tech that other companies won't have for years, but there are some serious issues that they will have to deal with in the long term.

Flagship models are aging, plus they are about to start building the Y, AND 3 completely new platforms (truck, roadster, semi), all with a DECREASING capital expenditure / R&D budget

Service and charging infrastructure are not expanding to keep pace with sales. Check how many people have to wait months for parts. Check out the 30 deep lines at superchargers over the holidays. How's that going to look next year when there's another 450k teslas on the road?

Inconsistent build quality

The complete lie of FSD being possible on their current cars. They can't drive around a parking garage without hitting 1' square columns due to blind spots. Not to mention the fact that many experts are now saying general purpose FSD may be many years if not decades away, regardless of how much software/hardware you throw at it. Wasn't tesla FSD supposed to be 'feature complete' by the end of 2019? They recently touted their AI trained auto windshield wipers which apparently still work very inconsistently.

Tesla just updated the Supercharger map with 2020 construction plans, at least for Canada and US they are adding an absolute ton worth looking again... I didn't look at the rest of the world

The grey ones are planned construction

Many of those "coming 2020" locations were "coming 2019" until 2019 ended. Sort of like the additional "smart summon" features that were listed as "coming later this year"
 
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Mass_Pincup

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
7,127
Anytime there was an angry elon musk thread here, I bought more. It paid off.

Online negativity tends to be a bullish signal for me, especially when its towards a company thats disrupting/innovating

It's so funny in retrospect how any point saying that Tesla might be ok were talked down as being ridiculous.

Here we are lol.
 
Feb 1, 2018
5,083
Yeah, I need to learn from these things. Same thing happened to Netflix back near 2012ish when people were bearish because ISPs were threatening to throttle their bandwidth for more money.

Nobody really had faith in netflix tbh. That was a wilder bet in 2012 than something obvious like "todays electric cars are lacking, lets make them better, so people actually buy them and we lower co2 emissions overall"

Apple is the other one. People bash the company all day but the stonk dont lie
 

ccbfan

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,497
It's so funny in retrospect how any point saying that Tesla might be ok were talked down as being ridiculous.

Here we are lol.

EtcetEra general topics participants are usually very clueless about the subjects they seem so passionate about which give kind of a false image that they know what they're talking about.

The communities are where the knowledgable people are.
 

reKon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,704



upload_2020-1-3_8-43-59-png.495949


367,500 delivered in 2019 compared to 245,240 in 2018

112,000 in Q4 19 compared to 90,700 in Q4 18. 112k beats the previous record of 97k set in Q3 19

Stock is up ~2% premarket to an all time high of ~$440 (which is big considering the global market concerns with Iran it was down 2% before the announcement). 112k topped Wall Street estimates of 106k


It will be interesting to see their 2020 guidance, but with China Gigafactory online(customer deliverys start Jan 7) and Model Y launch in ~Q2 I expect no less than 550k delivered in 2020.... Any of our resident experts claiming "bankruptcy" and "growth story over" and "demand issues" non stop the last few years care to chime in yet with how wrong they were?

A wall of shame of the resident experts would be awesome
 

Deleted member 8741

user requested account closure
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
4,917
Bought stock a few years ago, been holding it through the roller coaster.

Also just preordered my Model 3 AWD. Gonna be here before Feb.
 
Feb 1, 2018
5,083
EtcetEra general topics participants are usually very clueless about the subjects they seem so passionate about which give kind of a false image that they know what they're talking about.

The communities are where the knowledgable people are.

A lot of it is also people using extreme cynicism and contrarianism as a way to vent/project about issues in their daily life and to also come off as intellectual and critically thinking because wow look at my hot take i am very smart i am not like other people

All of you, next time theres a thread about how airpods are an environmental hazard, and wired headphones are superior and youre a dumb sheep for disagreeing, buy AAPL.
 
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Ryno23

Ryno23

Banned
Dec 13, 2017
1,097
A wall of shame of the resident experts would be awesome

I forgot to add "competition is coming" "xxx is a tesla killer"... Those are the most hilarious ones in hindsight now that we have seen what the so called big boys are actually capable of making(nobody to this day has made a car with more range than a freaking 2012 Model S...) , how not serious they are about it judging by the pathetic production numbers, and how Tesla has continued to curb stomp every last one in sales. Maybe by next decade some will have caught up to Tesla's tech, but the early to mid 2020s, other than hopefully newcomers like Rivian etc, its not looking good for legacy gas auto companies.
 
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Ryno23

Ryno23

Banned
Dec 13, 2017
1,097


That's over 900k if you count the few thousand Roadsters from 2008-2010. So the millionth Tesla will be sold this quarter. Exponential growth, 2020 should be the biggest jump yet at minimum I expect +200k more likely +250k with Model Y and China GF3 already online



Still 20% short interest, almost $12 billion lol This could squeeze they already lost $3 billion in 2019 not off to a good start this year
 

pj-

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,659


That's over 900k if you count the few thousand Roadsters from 2008-2010. So the millionth Tesla will be sold this quarter. Exponential growth, 2020 should be the biggest jump yet at minimum I expect +200k more likely +250k with Model Y and China GF3 already online



Still 20% short interest, almost $12 billion lol This could squeeze they already lost $3 billion in 2019 not off to a good start this year



How is it exponential growth when 2019's growth was smaller than 2018's? both in % and units

Tesla has a limit on how many cars they can produce in freemont because of state rules about the paint shop and what volume of VoCs it can release into the atmosphere. MY will have to share that limit with M3 unless they suddenly start making them out of unpainted stainless steel..

GF3 is not stamping / welding / painting as of yet (it's all being shipped from CA), and it will take a fair amount of time for all of that local production to come online. Plus they are adding a new model which will likely slow things down for a short while, at both factories, assuming both will produce them.

+200k seems overly ambitious
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,113
I wish I had the guts to buy in back in July, but I don't think I have the stomach (or the time for research) to play the market. That, and I am a little light on the liquid funds after buying my ME.
 

Marshall

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,977
I think a lot of the detractors are short sellers who are getting absolutely slaughtered, and will continue to be.

That said, I'm in the market for an EV at some point in the next year or two but yeah the entry point is quite expensive. Even the "lesser" EVs out there (Bolt, Leaf, Ioniq, Niro) are all above $30k, if not AS expensive as a Model 3. So I may as well get a Model 3 I suppose.
 
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Ryno23

Ryno23

Banned
Dec 13, 2017
1,097
How is it exponential growth when 2019's growth was smaller than 2018's? both in % and units

Tesla has a limit on how many cars they can produce in freemont because of state rules about the paint shop and what volume of VoCs it can release into the atmosphere. MY will have to share that limit with M3 unless they suddenly start making them out of unpainted stainless steel..

GF3 is not stamping / welding / painting as of yet (it's all being shipped from CA), and it will take a fair amount of time for all of that local production to come online. Plus they are adding a new model which will likely slow things down for a short while, at both factories, assuming both will produce them.

+200k seems overly ambitious

Basically every word you typed is completely false. Don't get your info from r/realtesla or TSLAQ twitter... They are not honest individuals and spread false info because they stand to profit.

GF3 is absolutely stamping/wielding and painting. The only thing being shipped from CA is the battery pack and the seats both of which will be locally produced shortly. If you read the report the production ramp is going smoothly and should hit 3k week in no time probably in Q2. GF3 should be +100k at minimum

The plan for Freemont is 7k Model 3 a week and 7k Model Y a week. Model Y is rumored to go in production late Q1 with deliveries begging Q2. With a full year of Model 3 at max production(or even the existing Q4 levels) and Model Y hitting high production in Q4(it shares 80% of parts with Model 3). That's easy +100k

550k for 2020 is my absolute worst case scenario conservative estimate. Look at the CAGR Exponential growth:
 

pj-

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,659
Basically every word you typed is completely false. Don't get your info from r/realtesla or TSLAQ twitter... They are not honest individuals and spread false info because they stand to profit.

GF3 is absolutely stamping/wielding and painting. The only thing being shipped from CA is the battery pack and the seats both of which will be locally produced shortly. If you read the report the production ramp is going smoothly and should hit 3k week in no time probably in Q2. GF3 should be +100k at minimum

The plan for Freemont is 7k Model 3 a week and 7k Model Y a week. Model Y is rumored to go in production late Q1 with deliveries begging Q2. With a full year of Model 3 at max production(or even the existing Q4 levels) and Model Y hitting high production in Q4(it shares 80% of parts with Model 3). That's easy +100k

550k for 2020 is my absolute worst case scenario conservative estimate. Look at the CAGR Exponential growth:


I for sure am just repeating what I've heard in realtesla about gf3, but you saying they "for sure" are doing those things isn't really more compelling than what I've seen there.


Earlier this week, Tesla said that 30% of its China supply chain was localized, which means some car parts are shipped in to build its cars. The automaker wants to completely localize its China supply chain by end-2020, it said at the time.

Do you think tesla is lying when they say only 30% of parts are made locally? Or is 70% of a car the battery pack and seats?

Regardless of how much GF3 is doing itself, it's indisputable that 2019 growth was slower than 2018

(from the tweet in the post I quoted)
2019: 367,500
2018: 245,240
2017: 103,097
2016: 76,295

2018 growth: 137% increase vs previous year, 142k units more than previous year
2019 growth: 50% increase vs previous year, 122k units more than previous year

How is slowing growth exponential?
 

Adventureracing

The Fallen
Nov 7, 2017
8,027
I just hope the prices keep coming down and batteries keep improving. Planning to jump into the market in around 3-4 years so hopefully the market just keeps improving.
 
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Ryno23

Ryno23

Banned
Dec 13, 2017
1,097
I for sure am just repeating what I've heard in realtesla about gf3, but you saying they "for sure" are doing those things isn't really more compelling than what I've seen there.




Do you think tesla is lying when they say only 30% of parts are made locally? Or is 70% of a car the battery pack and seats?

Regardless of how much GF3 is doing itself, it's indisputable that 2019 growth was slower than 2018

(from the tweet in the post I quoted)
2019: 367,500
2018: 245,240
2017: 103,097
2016: 76,295

2018 growth: 137% increase vs previous year, 142k units more than previous year
2019 growth: 50% increase vs previous year, 122k units more than previous year

How is slowing growth exponential?

You were repeating the TSLAQ lie that the cars weren't being stamped assembled and painted there etc read the press release they are doing up to a rate of 3k run rate already you really think that's is just hand assembly lol. Having raw materials and parts imported is completely different than what you tried to claim.

And again look at the 5 year CAGR of 63% that's completely unheard of in history for a company this size. Exponential growth.
 

pj-

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,659
You were repeating the TSLAQ lie that the cars weren't being stamped assembled and painted there etc read the press release they are doing up to a rate of 3k run rate already you really think that's is just hand assembly lol. Having raw materials and parts imported is completely different than what you tried to claim.

And again look at the 5 year CAGR of 63% that's completely unheard of in history for a company this size. Exponential growth.

Gotcha, so completely ignoring what I responded with.

70% of the components for cars produced by GF3 are imported from freemont. This was reported by Tesla via the Associated Press, not TSLAQ. "up to 3k" does not mean sustained 3k. If freemont sends them 3k/wk worth of parts, sure they can do 3k/wk.

2019 growth is slower than 2018 growth. Sub-linear growth. This is using Tesla's production numbers.

Feel free to quote me again if you would like to dispute either of those things.
 
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Ryno23

Ryno23

Banned
Dec 13, 2017
1,097
Gotcha, so completely ignoring what I responded with.

70% of the components for cars produced by GF3 are imported from freemont. This was reported by Tesla. "up to 3k" does not mean sustained 3k. If freemont sends them 3k/wk worth of parts, sure they can do 3k/wk.

2019 growth is slower than 2018 growth. Sub-linear growth. This is using Tesla's production numbers.

Feel free to quote me again if you would like to dispute either of those things.

That's mainly because Tesla is the only vertically integrated company that makes almost all their own parts from scratch. It will take time as they said to have 100% of parts sourced locally. But again you claimed the cars weren't being stamped, weilded, or painted at GF3 which having parts imported has nothing to do with. They already produced 1k ready for delivery on Jan 7. You can't hand assemble 1k vehicles in a few weeks.

They delivered more in 2019 than 2018 and 2017 combined. And will probably deliver more in 2020 than 2019 and 2018 combined. If that is your definition of slowing growth than fair enough.
 

pj-

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,659
That's mainly because Tesla is the only vertically integrated company that makes almost all their own parts from scratch. It will take time as they said to have 100% of parts sourced locally. But again you claimed the cars weren't being stamped, weilded, or painted at GF3 which having parts imported has nothing to do with. They already produced 1k ready for delivery on Jan 7. You can't hand assemble 1k vehicles in a few weeks.

yes you can.. i know that because tesla was doing it in that in the tent in the model 3 ramp up

They delivered more in 2019 than 2018 and 2017 combined. And will probably deliver more in 2020 than 2019 and 2018 combined. If that is your definition of slowing growth than fair enough.

Lol, what? Now you think they will deliver over 600k this year (2019: 367k, 2018: 245k)?

Why is it so hard for you to admit that 2018 had more growth for tesla than 2019?
2018: 137% growth.
2019: 50% growth.

Is there some other measure of growth I'm not aware of? Growth is, by any definition of the word, slowing.

That's setting aside the speculation that a large part of the growth is from expanding to additional markets (which there a finite number of). Established markets such as the US saw flat to slightly lower sales of Teslas. Other markets may see the same this year as backlogs are cleared and govt incentives expire.

I have no vested interest in tesla. I think the cars are good. I think musk sucks. I think they will deliver around 450k cars this year. And I think none of them will be full self driving.
 

greepoman

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,958
That's mainly because Tesla is the only vertically integrated company that makes almost all their own parts from scratch. It will take time as they said to have 100% of parts sourced locally. But again you claimed the cars weren't being stamped, weilded, or painted at GF3 which having parts imported has nothing to do with. They already produced 1k ready for delivery on Jan 7. You can't hand assemble 1k vehicles in a few weeks.

They delivered more in 2019 than 2018 and 2017 combined. And will probably deliver more in 2020 than 2019 and 2018 combined. If that is your definition of slowing growth than fair enough.
Dude the growth is great an all but there's a mathematical definition of exponential growth and those numbers do not show exponential growth. Don't get hung up on it lol.
 
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Ryno23

Ryno23

Banned
Dec 13, 2017
1,097
yes you can.. i know that because tesla was doing it in that in the tent in the model 3 ramp up



Lol, what? Now you think they will deliver over 600k this year (2019: 367k, 2018: 245k)?

Why is it so hard for you to admit that 2018 had more growth for tesla than 2019?
2018: 137% growth.
2019: 50% growth.

Is there some other measure of growth I'm not aware of? Growth is, by any definition of the word, slowing.

That's setting aside the speculation that a large part of the growth is from expanding to additional markets (which there a finite number of). Established markets such as the US saw flat to slightly lower sales of Teslas. Other markets may see the same this year as backlogs are cleared and govt incentives expire.

I have no vested interest in tesla. I think the cars are good. I think musk sucks. I think they will deliver around 450k cars this year. And I think none of them will be full self driving.

Ok well I was looking at the bigger picture the 5 year compounded annual growth rate compared to the 2 year, which shows increasing growth rate, not the specific year to year sorry for confusion.

And your point about the tent is completely false. The cars would go through the factory to be stamped weilded and painted, the tent was just final assembly no different than the line inside the factory.... Again don't believe everything you read on r/realtesla they are disengenous people with an agenda to see the company fail so they profit.

And yes they exited q4 at a rate of 440k a year that's crazy talk to think with GF3 and Model Y they will only add 10k. They are still supply constrained most areas Model 3 is back ordered sold out till March at earliest if you didn't notice they sold 7k more than they produced this quarter. Pessimistic 550k this year as I said, optimistic 600 to 650k is completely possible.
 
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pj-

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,659
Ok well I was looking at the bigger picture the 5 year compounded annual growth rate not the specific year to year sorry for confusion.

And your point about the tent is completely false. The cars would go through the factory to be stamped weilded and painted, the tent was just final assembly no different than the line inside the factory.... Again don't believe everything you read on r/realtesla they are disengenous people with an agenda to see the company fail so they profit.

And yes they exited q4 at a rate of 440k a year that's crazy talk to think with GF3 and Model Y they will only add 10k. They are still supply constrained most areas Model 3 is back ordered sold out till March at earliest if you didn't notice they sold 7k more than they produced this quarter. Pessimistic 550k this year as I said, optimistic 600 to 650k is completely possible.

I mean, the entire point of r/realtesla is that gf3 is basically doing final assembly on the cars they're putting out. do you have any evidence to the contrary? The fact (according to tesla) that 70% of components are imported, leads me to believe that freemont is doing the heavy lifting, and gf3 is just final assembly.

Also, S/X demand will likely continue to drop until a major refresh becomes available, so some increase in 3/Y production will be offset by a drop in S/X.
 
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Ryno23

Ryno23

Banned
Dec 13, 2017
1,097
I mean, the entire point of r/realtesla is that gf3 is basically doing final assembly on the cars they're putting out. do you have any evidence to the contrary? The fact (according to tesla) that 70% of components are imported, leads me to believe that freemont is doing the heavy lifting, and gf3 is just final assembly.

Also, S/X demand will likely continue to drop until a major refresh becomes available, so some increase in 3/Y production will be offset by a drop in S/X.

Yes there is videos of the factory running if I have time I will look they might have just been twitter posts. It definitely wasn't people doing the final assembly it was the robots doing the stamping and welding.

Yeah the S/X is getting the tri motor plaid upgrade and probably I'm assuming interior redesign in ~Q3 if you haven't heard.
 
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Ryno23

Ryno23

Banned
Dec 13, 2017
1,097
I mean, the entire point of r/realtesla is that gf3 is basically doing final assembly on the cars they're putting out. do you have any evidence to the contrary? The fact (according to tesla) that 70% of components are imported, leads me to believe that freemont is doing the heavy lifting, and gf3 is just final assembly.

Also, S/X demand will likely continue to drop until a major refresh becomes available, so some increase in 3/Y production will be offset by a drop in S/X.

Ok here from the Tesla q3 update letter October 25th. Clearly shows the cars are going through the stamping and welding and clearly shows they are body in white so not painted yet. This is far from final assembly. So yeah as usual r/realtesla is completely full of shit

Screen-Shot-2019-10-23-at-11.11.47-PM.jpg
Screen-Shot-2019-10-23-at-11.12.19-PM.jpg
Screen-Shot-2019-10-23-at-11.13.33-PM.jpg
Screen-Shot-2019-10-23-at-11.13.15-PM.jpg
 
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Ryno23

Ryno23

Banned
Dec 13, 2017
1,097


China GF3 clearly just doing final assembly of cars produced in Freemont lol video as requested



Q4 growth in chart form



2019 USA sales of all available EVs