Take-Two CEO says games are ten years from photorealism

[LCGeek]

hopefully people stop caring about graphics once we hit the ceiling and companies start funding big budget artsy games without second guessing it

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They don't care that much about them now. Mobile is the biggest market we have a graph showing how various markets have flowed for 50 years since arcades. Console consumers with fidelity needs aren't driving the money being dumped in to pc, handhelds or mobiles.

The real question will be when AAA developers stop chasing such a thing if they can't properly be funded or given time. I care more about QOL and decent performance in a game before I ever decide if it's meta is worth the grind. I'm glad smaller companies know better but watching the top of this industry locked in a profit race in which they shoot themselves in the foot won't last much longer. Even with MTX profits it's not enough to make up for what's necessary.

 

[Orioto]

For environments certainly. Just look at UE5 demo and that's just this gen.

 

[robinium7]

I don't think you should be reading this as: all games will be photorealistic in ten years, but rather, we will see examples of games achieving photorealism in 10 years.

I think it's a pretty fair claim tbh. Imagine the likes of Naughty Dog with TLOU2, with another 10 years of advancement plus hardware probably in the ballpark of 10 times more powerful in GPU compute than the PS4 Pro. Given the PS5 is 2.5x more powerful than the Pro, and 6x more powerful than base PS4 in GPU compute, I think the PS6 being at least 4x the GPU compute power of the PS5 is certainly going to happen.

 

[Cross-Section]

What makes you think that? Game and console prices have stagnated since decades - especially including inflation.

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Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't modern consoles pretty much loss-leaders designed to get people onto services where Microsoft and Sony can actually turn a profit?

As the rare metals needed to manufacture these devices dwindle, I'd expect any advances in rendering tech to be hampered by availability and rising prices.

 

[Lylo]

ceo: Hey, lead graphics designer of Rockstar, when is this gonna look really real?
lead: yeah, about that.
ceo: 10 years from now....!

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I see this conversation being slighty different:

ceo: Hey, lead graphics designer of Rockstar, when is this gonna look really real?

lead: 10 years from now!

ceo: Thanks!

Lead graphics designer thinking for himself as he watches the CEO leaving: Sucker...

 

[Doskoi Panda]

something cool in gaming might happen
"WELL IF EVERY GAME EVER MADE STARTS TO DO THAT THING, THEN THAT'S NOT VERY COOL"

~ gamers, every single time

 

[My Blue Heaven]

I don't think you should be reading this as: all games will be photorealistic in ten years, but rather, we will see examples of games achieving photorealism in 10 years.

I think it's a pretty fair claim tbh. Imagine the likes of Naughty Dog with TLOU2, with another 10 years of advancement plus hardware probably in the ballpark of 10 times more powerful in GPU compute than the PS4 Pro. Given the PS5 is 2.5x more powerful than the Pro, and 6x more powerful than base PS4 in GPU compute, I think the PS6 being at least 4x the GPU compute power of the PS5 is certainly going to happen.

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i'm sure in a vacuum games can achieve photorealism but this talks around all the things that make games inauthentic and fakey: animation, interaction, dialogue, rigging. games have sacrificed much in the way of basic levels of interaction to get "bigger".

 

[Marano]

Constantly just 10 years away.

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2 years away from being 2 years away (basketball minds will understand).

 

[Piggus]

How far are we from having absolutely no pop-in?

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Already possible with Unreal Engine 5/Nanite. That will probably happen this gen.

 

[robinium7]

i'm sure in a vacuum games can achieve photorealism but this talks around all the things that make games inauthentic and fakey: animation, interaction, dialogue, rigging. games have sacrificed much in the way of basic levels of interaction to get "bigger".

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The main example I use, TLOU2, is a prime example of a game not doing that. Animation and dialogue are second to none in TLOU2.

 

[EvilBoris]

I can see that happening. You'll probably be able to run a NN filter on the top of anything and make it look like real life, almost regardless of what is being actually rendered.

The interesting thing will be when all games can be photorealistic with little effort, games won't be judged on how great the graphics are, but rather on how they play.
Then once photorealism is boring , maybe people will better recognise the art that drives how a game looks.

 

[Iron Eddie]

I can believe that. TLOU2 looks so damn realistic.

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Game looks great but let's not exaggerate. Also when the camera pans to the in-engine game on auto sequence/cutscenes you can clearly see the difference in quality (lighting/detail) to that of actual gameplay.

 

[BasilZero]

Medal of Honor... Warfighter or one of those MOH games. Google "Medal of Honor Uncanny Valley" it comes up, it's this scene in a diner with 4 people.

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love how the title of the video says creepy wives club lmao.

 

[Gravity Insanity]

For me personally, this is the closest I've seen to photorealism in terms of graphics, lighting, and animations. Not just this gif, but everything going on in this section. The final game still has very good animations, but you can tell they had to tone it down.

 

[mute]

Maybe if they start working today they will be able to finish a photo realistic trailer in 10 years.

 

[Richter1887]

Game looks great but let's not exaggerate. Also when the camera pans to the in-engine game on auto sequence/cutscenes you can clearly see the difference in quality (lighting/detail) to that of actual gameplay.

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Obviously there is room for improvement but the game looks really realistic at points. Which is why I believe him when he says in 10 years games will be photo realistic.

 

[J_Atlas]

I feel like this gets said every couple years

 

[EvilBoris]

The main example I use, TLOU2, is a prime example of a game not doing that. Animation and dialogue are second to none in TLOU2.

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When you aren't watching sub-10th of a mm perfect motion capture with the entire CPU and GPU dedicated to the animation , material shading and lighting - it still looks like a videogame.

 

[daegan]

How much VC will it cost though?

for me, it's always ten years out because what we currently have would have felt photorealistic years ago.

 

[Falchion]

We're going to hold him to that for GTA VI.

 

[enzo_gt]

In a world with Disney/ILM's Volume, which leans really heavily on Unreal Engine and VR, this might be the first time these kinds of statements have a chance of being true (even if, obviously, photorealism tends to be a moving goalpost).

 

[shadowsdarknes]

I'm not concerned with whether or not something is literally photorealistic.

But I can't wait. We really have come so far in the last ten years.

 

[supernormal]

The closer we get to photo realism in games, the more I'm disinterested. Rather have a game look stylized than photo realistic. If I want photo realistic, I can just go look outdoors.

Might be due to how games animate at times. The more real a game looks, the worse it will seem in movement if animation isn't on par.

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Being able to make photorealism in games is just a benchmark not a pre-requisite. Having the hardware to achieve this only enables more freedom for the devs to make anything they want. You can pretty much achieve photorealistic images in GCI, yet most photorealistic CGI is employed to augment live action movies. Animated movies are rarely photorealistic and use a plethora of different art styles because the tools are available to them.

 

[Garlador]

10 years from now?

Heck, we were doing it back in 1995!

 

[Iron Eddie]

For me personally, this is the closest I've seen to photorealism in terms of graphics, lighting, and animations. Not just this gif, but everything going on in this section. The final game still has very good animations, but you can tell they had to tone it down.

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I expect (hope) games will look like this within 10 years during actual gameplay and not in-engine cutscenes with limited input from the player. There are so many tricks developers use like button prompts during sequenced animations.

 

[NCR Ranger]

Constantly just 10 years away.

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I wonder what we will get first commercially viable fusion power generation or photo-realistic games?

 

[Deleted member 81119]

Videogame characters still don't look like real people though. There's a very slight 'style' to even the most realistic character models, and I assume that's to avoid uncanny valley.

 

[TheSpaceBetween]

The closer we get to photo realism in games, the more I'm disinterested. Rather have a game look stylized than photo realistic. If I want photo realistic, I can just go look outdoors.

Might be due to how games animate at times. The more real a game looks, the worse it will seem in movement if animation isn't on par.

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The uncanny valley is definitely a thing, and will only get worse as we draw even closer to realism.

 

[supernormal]

For me personally, this is the closest I've seen to photorealism in terms of graphics, lighting, and animations. Not just this gif, but everything going on in this section. The final game still has very good animations, but you can tell they had to tone it down.

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I'm really hoping they can add the settings they removed for the PS5 version. This demo will still be a benchmark for years to come.

 

[asmith906]

we don't need photorealistic games

 

[azfaru]

Honestly more interested in what this type of photo realism can do in VR. It's gonna be fucking wild matrix shit happening

 

[robinium7]

When you aren't watching sub-10th of a mm perfect motion capture with the entire CPU and GPU dedicated to the animation , material shading and lighting - it still looks like a videogame.

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I didn't say it doesn't still look like a video game, I'm not sure where you get that from? I'm a bit confused about your comment and what you mean exactly? My example was take something like TLOU2, give the studio ten more years and 10x the GPU power of the PS4 Pro and its entirely plausible you'll get pretty much photorealism. Someone then came and said yeah but animations and dialogue will be sacrificed for these bigger games and I said my example, TLOU2, is a prime example of NOT sacrificing animation and dialogue quality.

 

[Ciao]

Keep your photorealism and invest in better Cel Shading instead.

 

[Noppie]

Have exactly 0 interest in photorealism for games.

 

[TheDutchSlayer]

Just in time for rockstars next release.

 

[8byte]

Yet, I'm not sure if I want that, lol.

 

[Diarrhea Day-Lewis]

I think the pursuit of better visuals will never end, and they will always require new consoles every 6-7 years. I look forward to what PS6 can do in 2026-27 in semi-8K, but can't even fathom what PS7 stuff will be like around the time he mentions in like 2032+. Oof.

 

[eebster]

On PC? Maybe. I doubt a PS6 or XSX2 will have photorealism above 30fps (which would defeat the purpose of photorealism).

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PS6 and XSX2 will have DLSS or AMD's aquivalent of it. I certainly believe that a game can achieve photorealism on a 50 TF PS6 if it only has to be rendered at 1440p due to DLSS.
Some tech demos like the Unreal Rebirth trailer already look close to photorealistic. At least the backgrounds and assets. A 50TF next gen console at 1440p/30fps upscaled to 4K should be able to replicate that in a fleshed out game. Obviously this needs a huge amount of work that only the likes of Rockstar and ND will achieve. But it certainly should be possible
DLSS is really the key factore here. You don't have to waste massive amounts of ressources chasing higher resolutions but can instead focus all that horse power on the actual graphics.

 

[Dan L]

constantly in 10 years for the last 30 years.

 

[K Samedi]

I think the pursuit of better visuals will never end, and they will always require new consoles every 6-7 years. I look forward to what PS6 can do in 2026-27 in semi-8K, but can't even fathom what PS7 stuff will be like around the time he mentions in like 2032+. Oof.

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i want something like a Switch to reach photo realism so I think once boxes reach that portable hybrids will be there to grow the market even further. And there will always be new developments in create huge games with lots of simulations.

 

[Aleh]

Unless animations catch up it'll still look bad in motion. Even games that get praised for their incredible animation today don't look anywhere near good enough to look real

 

[RROCKMAN]

Just like with CGI movies one will come to the realization that a stylized look just works better for a number of reasons, even if the tech is there to make every thing look photoreal.

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God I hope so

I frigging hate the realism chase rut games have been stuck in for a while now

 

[LookAtMeGo]

The closer we get to photo realism in games, the more I'm disinterested. Rather have a game look stylized than photo realistic. If I want photo realistic, I can just go look outdoors.

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But can you cast spells and fight dragons in real life?

 

[monketron]

So around about GTA7 on the PS6 Pro. Lets go!

 

[Playboi Carti]

CG like graphics are pretty achievable now, the problem lies in also having CG like animation and interaction.

 

[jotun?]

Some of the games we already have would be considered photorealistic to people 20 years ago. There will always be room to get a little bit closer. (maybe not forever, but for the foreseeable future)

 

[MysticGon]

I'm doing doubletakes at GT Sport and Flight Simulator. Especially GT Sport with those realistic camera angles.

For humans on the other hand? I don't think we'll ever leave the uncanny valley. There is always that initial "damn" moment but time ages nothing like it does CGI. General Tarkin look when looked real to me when Rogue one first dropped... Now he looks like a like a fly in an ointment.

 

[plan9]

I played Mad Dog McCree in early nineties.
It don't get more realistic than that.

 

[Ghost of Jhoto]

If you showed me some of the games today in 2008 I'd consider them pretty photorealistic.

 

[Takohiko]

Yeah but by the time we get there, reality will have updated graphics that will be superior to our current reality so technology will have to wait another 10 years to reach this new level.