God I love that thread. I wasn't a member at the time but I remember reading it as a lurker and going "WTF is wrong with you people?". Ganted I will say I thought the Switch would be a modest success and not get to where we are today.
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Switch Surpasses 10.5 Million Units in U.S. - Launch aligned sales are 22% higher than PS4 and 34% higher than XB1
- Thread starter Deleted member 1413
- Start date
True, both the Xbone and Ps4 are much more powerful than the switch and can do things that it can't....but at the same time, the switch can do something that the other consoles can't, which is play console quality games anywhere and on your television seamlessly
My guess:
-Acquisitions on the mobile space
-Partnerships with third-parties
-R&D for new technologies (as usual)
-Funding of non-gaming initiatives
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It's interesting analogy.
I only wonder how would XB1 perform in the US if it was priced $399 from the beginning (instead of $499).
OP
OP
2021 is likely after a new Mario and Zelda game hit which would've been the best time to push it.
If they wanted a cheaper lite model, it should've come out last holiday. 1.5 years after switch did which is longer than the 3DS had to wait.
It needs to be updated to "It's not that impressive, Nintendo was always going to sell a Switch to all of the humans, but what about all of the trillions of aliens and other species?"
Man, this is insane. I always expected the Switch to do well but I never expected these numbers.
I think this is huge in families and might be why portable home is the future. Strictly portables in the past were too gimped, but now...
Portable everything is the future anyways, I always found it funny when people dismissed handhelds compared to stationary consoles and PCs.
Laptops sell more than desktops, tablets sell more than laptops, phones sell more than tablets... DS sold more than Wii. People don't like being tethered
Laptops sell more than desktops, tablets sell more than laptops, phones sell more than tablets... DS sold more than Wii. People don't like being tethered
In a good space, but you need to factor in the cost of hd game dev, network building, and increased r&d etc. Plus, assuming portable home is what the market prefers (big assumption), you will have competition.
Merging product lines seems to have been super forward thinking.
The only times they put out lite models is when they need to do so to boost sales/revenue.
Game Boy was revitalized with GBC and Pokemon in the Americas after '98.
Sales for GBA were fairly flat (and even down in Europe) after its strong launch, but SP pushed major growth in the West.
DS Lite obviously drove a sales explosion for DS and was designed to keep it competitive against PSP.
3DS never really saw big growth outside Japan no matter what new models Nintendo came up with.
There's no evidence that they need to do this for Switch yet even now that we're in early 2019. And just because other platforms got them on a generally similar timetable doesn't mean that has to happen again.
The simple fact that seems to be emerging is that people don't need their Nintendo games to blow away the likes of Breath of the Wild or Mario Odyssey visually. It is also apparent that the market is treating third party ports as handheld versions, and thus is willing to forgive or even ignore the compromised visuals. This is important, because the handheld factor not only means that some gamers may outright prefer the Switch version over others, but also gives PS4/Xbox/PC gamers a very good reason to double dip when they otherwise wouldn't have.
Additionally, Nintendo has reorganized themselves in such a way as to be able to support a system like this at a base level all by themselves, so that the absence of games like Assassin's Creed and Red Dead isn't seen as a big negative mark by the general public. Those games would do well if Switch versions released, of course, and Switch would benefit from them without a doubt, but they aren't necessary for the system to see massive success.
All of the above will compound as the system gets cheaper. This is why it makes more sense to push in the "Switch Lite" direction over the "Switch Pro" direction, though I do still think that we will see a "Switch Pro" at some point to counter the next gen of PS/Xbox. What it comes down to is whether you think that people are standing in the aisle with a Switch in their hands and deciding not to buy it because it's too expensive, or because it isn't powerful enough. I'd bet that it skews far more toward the former than the latter.
Additionally, Nintendo has reorganized themselves in such a way as to be able to support a system like this at a base level all by themselves, so that the absence of games like Assassin's Creed and Red Dead isn't seen as a big negative mark by the general public. Those games would do well if Switch versions released, of course, and Switch would benefit from them without a doubt, but they aren't necessary for the system to see massive success.
All of the above will compound as the system gets cheaper. This is why it makes more sense to push in the "Switch Lite" direction over the "Switch Pro" direction, though I do still think that we will see a "Switch Pro" at some point to counter the next gen of PS/Xbox. What it comes down to is whether you think that people are standing in the aisle with a Switch in their hands and deciding not to buy it because it's too expensive, or because it isn't powerful enough. I'd bet that it skews far more toward the former than the latter.
It is an enthusiast thing. People who want the best assume that prejudice is something everyone shares. Price, Convenience and good enough are key to mass market.
It would be hilarious if Microsoft spend gobs on traditional home console next gen only to be outflanked by tiny (relatively speaking) Nintendo. I dont know what Sony is planning for next gen, but I doubt they have anything portable.
I would say R&D and manufacturing overall would probably be down, not up, considering they're only selling 1 platform now. Same with cost of game development, HD game dev is certainly higher but the volume of games has decreased while the revenue per game (especially with the rise of digital) has increased greatly.
And that's before we get into mobile revenue and their entertainment/movie/theme park business.
I see them surpassing Wii/DS era profits for at least one of the next 2-3 FYs.
OP
OP
Not really a DS lite situation, tho.
Issue is that if it bumps up the specs, people might feel it's a necessary upgrade but it barely does anything then that's not a great outcome.
When they do start appearing on a home portable, thats when will know if the days of tethered home consoles are done. I have a feeling that the market for 'best graphics' is smaller than many think.
I wouldnt be surprised either. I am glad the last truly japanese console maker is in a good spot.
Handhelds are much more consistent for Nintendo so the Switch has that going for it as well.
Nintendo listens these days, so maybe they finally herd that better graphics, new tracks and online would be more than enough after over a decade of no new title.
Maybe they even listened in regards to Paper Mario...
Unbelievably impressive. I do think one of the other key reasons the system might be doing so well comparative to the PS4/Xbox One, besides the portability aspect, is that it launched $100 cheaper than the PS4 and $200 cheaper than the Xbox One. The $299 price point puts it closer to impulse buy territory. Eg the appeal being a combination of desirable hardware with an added utility component, on top of a reasonable price of entry, unlike the other consoles which launched at enthusiast level pricing.
The core logic behind the massive skepticism is that the Switch was a "handheld" and needed to be priced as such because it didn't have the horsepower to command the price of a console. You know, the "too weak to be a console, too large and expensive to be a handheld" deal. I suppose that logic made sense at the time when we had no idea how the platform would work in practice.
This is the thing, predicting the future and how markets will respond is fucking hard. So making fun of people who were down on Switch at launch is...idk...hypocritical or something unless you can tell the future and are always right. There were good reasons to think it might fail, but the market is speaking and saying this is what we want.
When people say DS Lite-style I don't think they mean it has to be the exact same scenario. Just more like a sleeker redesign which doesn't change all that much else.
I believe the specs will be upgraded but not enough to warrant being considered a spec bump. I'm thinking it will just shore out some of the performance in some games with slightly better CPU performance and maybe enhance dynamic resolution just a bit with a slightly higher GPU clock. If it's on a smaller node the may have that extra room to work with, even after cutting out the fan.
We won't know until the end of April.
Thats what some sales insiders have said. But is 19 million bad? Naw.
EL's take on it was so hilariously wrong and condescending.
I couldn't find a prediction from me though which is weird since I instantly preordered it
My big takeaway from that thread is how many ppl overrate the Wii U. I thought the Switch would be a hit from that conference (I thought Skyrim on the go plus Indies was a major hook), and anyone who didn't think this was objectively more appealing than the Wii U had blinders on. I never bought into the $300 price criticism either, even though I wished for $250.
In any case, the Switch could do some monster numbers with a revision + price drop. With the library already in place and once Pokemon and Animal Crossing come out, that console is going to sell forever.
I've heard both Mini and Pro, thats the general theme of the two biggest camps on the forum
A lot of people are expecting slight upgrade in 2019, mainly in terms of display, battery life, slightly better optimization thus graphics, better wi-fi.
Personally I wouldn't be surprised if we also get better optimized JoyCons in terms of technology, grip and ergonomic design that are compatible with OG Switch.
I think the OG model will continue to be sold but receive a price cut probably to ¥ 25,000/$250/€250, while the new revision Switch will be $300 or $350 if they do upgrade the JoyCons.
If I was to speculate about the mythical Pro
At most, I think OG Switch will remain the main platform for new games for 2-3 more years after which it will continue to be sold and Nintendo titles would be released on it with downgraded graphics but major 3rd Party games won't be on the system. "The Pro" some people are talking about will replace as the main platform Nintendo advertises after Next Gen has started by the competition. While the OG will be sold for like $150-200 and only get indies and 1st/2nd party titles on the system. Nintendo is currently designing it's games to scale so they are probably thinking about how they could scale down games when targeting a higher spec platform. The Pro will mainly be targeting specs that allows big 3rd parties to bring their flagship games on the Switch ecosystem.
Launch
Better to leave that for an year after Sony and Microsoft have released their next consoles. We know that the flagship 3rd party AAA games being designed around next gen wouldn't run on the Switch without major sacrifices. In some cases these games are completely incapable of running on the current system. So the Pro needs to target specs that would at the very least allow games to be ported easily to the system without such big sacrifices in resolution, frame rate, ai, etc. Secondary the Pro needs to help solve some of the problems cartridges bring for 3rd party publishers.
What could the Pro it be
Personally I think this upgrade will be focused around the dock and utilizing it as a supplemental computing device. The patent cleared a while ago but I don't think Nintendo need to rush out and actually release something based on it. The tablet will be "shinier" but I don't think it would be able to run the titles on their max settings without the dock being turned on. The dock would also need to be able to allow for the game data to be partially saved there, so a disc drive of something like 250GB. This would resolve some issues 3rd parties have with the Switch cartridges. The technology of mass manufacturing such a dock is probably too costly at the moment, and it would bring the price of the Switch up considerably. So they need for technology to catch up - which shouldn't be a long wait. If lets say the Switch with Pro Dock launches at $399 an year following the release of the next gen systems - and has
Brining OG Switch to <$200
Right now Switch has great capabilities for what it is, Nintendo got a great deal from Nvidia. Two years of production probably means their manufacturing costs have dropped because of economies of scale. They are shipping at least 20M units this and next year year, which has probably brought down the cost of the >30M JoyCons they are likely also ordering each year down. I think that's one of the greatest areas of savings for them, with the Tablet being second. We don't know how much it costs to manufacture right now but with 2 years of manufacturing with projected strong growth into year 3, I think that by the time "Pro" is released we'd see OG Switch sell for under $200.
OG Switch and compatibility with the Dock
One thing I do wonder about is if the current OG Switch could also be compatible with such a device for docked play. Even if Nintendo is designing their games around being scalable to the resolution and frame rate they are targeting with the next iteration of the Switch - we know the limitation of the Shield and it's entirely possible that the Pro Dock would need a newest version of the Tablet or the current rumored revision to function. But lets say that the Dock is entirely designed around the OG Switch being compatible and allowing OG owners to buy the Dock without the new tablet for $250-299. With hard-disk being available it would suddenly allow 3rd parties to in some form release their games to both Pro and OG users. Overall comparability would be the most interesting area Nintendo needs to think about.
So overall I'm team:
2019: Slight upgrade & new JoyCon's
After Next Gen launches: Pro Dock
Still 3 months in the fiscal year, it ends at the end of April. They will be extremely close at the least, close enough that it's already a moot point.
Definitely, but there's a big difference between someone trying to reason out why they aren't sure about the Switch or think the market might not take to it, vs the pre-emptive grave-dancing like you see in the old NeoGAF threads. People aren't laughing at posters who said things like "with the Wii U's failure and unprecedented form factor, it's hard to predict that this will be successful," they're laughing at the "no chance in hell," "DOA, "lmao," "it's doomed," "fuck no," etc proclamations.
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It does look like the console market is receptive to tiered hardware, but I dont think supplemental computing devices will ever be a thing on consoles because none of the other tech companies are r&d that stuff (amd, nvidia).
Fair enough.
It does look like the console market is receptive to tiered hardware, but I dont think supplemental computing devices will ever be a thing on consoles because none of the other tech companies are r&d that stuff (amd, nvidia).
Fair enough.
The Switch sure is doing great!
The launch aligned growth is a bit tricky though, since the launch period was totally different for the Switch. By now Switch had two complete holidays and a launch period. In the same timeframe the PS4 and Xbox One had two holidays as well, although one of which was the launch period with limited supplies.
The launch aligned growth is a bit tricky though, since the launch period was totally different for the Switch. By now Switch had two complete holidays and a launch period. In the same timeframe the PS4 and Xbox One had two holidays as well, although one of which was the launch period with limited supplies.
I was waiting all week for you to make a thread! Although, if you'd prefer to spill all the stats in a few posts here...
I don't know about that. Let Nintendo continue doing their thing clearly its working for them. But if this will compromise the potential powerhouses that traditional consoles can be, then I still want the traditional consoles
The last couple of years of sales from all three hardware makers has shown that there is enough room for everyone, and for both styles. Hopefully the trend continues because there aren't really any downsides to such a healthy situation.
Nintendo has real potential here with Pokemon and Animal Crossing. These two franchises have some real loyalty when it comes to their fanbases. My sister, who doesn't own a Switch yet, asks me every month or so if any news on Animal Crossing has dropped yet. She was a huge fan of the previous iterations, but the mobile game really hooked her in and has her salivating for the traditional AC model.
It was a soft launch:
That graph doesn't show anything other than third parties(indies and major publishers) doubted the system and had to be dragged kicking and screaming.
I bet if you did the same graph from launch until the end of this coming year it would look like both 2017 and 2018 were "soft launches".
oh WOW, so much crow.
"I don't see that happening. With that price, that paywall and that game line up, I see it below 40M after 5 years. Maybe even below 30M units. "
"I hope it does.
But I think it might be finally the end of Nintendo. No killer app or Proof of Concept "
"At the current price? No way. Completely dead. "
"No 3DS ressurgence: Lifetime sales of 10m or less
3DS ressurgence: 18-22m "
hahaha holy shit
This is actually hilarious. I had faint memories of doom and gloom around the Switch reveal, and was not too convinced myself, but reading through that thread it's just baffling how wrong people were.
I guess there's a tendency to overstate and fall into black/white thinking on web forums but we should all go back and reread threads like that to place things into perspective every now and then.
On Topic: I am happy for Nintendo's success with the Switch, and I'd say it's well deserved. Getting the Switch was a bit of an impulse buy since I wanted to be cautious after the WiiU disaster, but I ended up enjoying the console so much more than I could have imagined.
I think the hybrid approach really touches on modern technology in a great way. Outside of video games, what else is tethered to just one device? You can access your netflix, digital movies, music , etc from almost anywhere. Don't get me wrong, sitting down to play a graphically impressive game on my 4k tv is still an incredible experience, but I can't feel a bit held back that I can ONLY experience that on a system tied down to a tv in my basement.
This has been assured since they announced Pokemon for the Switch at E3 2017.