Yeah a total shutdown is impossible in the long run and this virus won't go away anytime soon. It will be interesting to see how countries that start to open things up fare.
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I think the main thing I still don't understand is the stated desire to flatten the curve and not overburden ICUs throughout Sweden. Aren't those the same goals in every country? I don't see how generally loose recommendations that can't be enforced would prevent ICUs from being filled quickly.
The only way to do that would be to prevent or slow the spread of infection, or have patients die really quickly. Trying to maximize the number of people infected early on for the sake of herd immunity also seems at odds with flattening the peak, though I guess that would also be a side effect of getting most people infected. Either way, there's a disconnect somewhere.
I don't think I ever expected Sweden of all countries to do what the US ultimately wanted to do—prioritizing the economy—before ending up with shutdowns in several states.
The only way to do that would be to prevent or slow the spread of infection, or have patients die really quickly. Trying to maximize the number of people infected early on for the sake of herd immunity also seems at odds with flattening the peak, though I guess that would also be a side effect of getting most people infected. Either way, there's a disconnect somewhere.
I don't think I ever expected Sweden of all countries to do what the US ultimately wanted to do—prioritizing the economy—before ending up with shutdowns in several states.
This is basically the resoning behind Swedens strategy:
Covid 19 UK response
Just an attempt to explain the UK government response to COVID19. Wasn't expecting it to go "viral" or I'd have worn a better shirt. This strategy is not my ...
youtu.be
Official guidelines
Maybe add a threadmark containing accurate official guidelines and advice for Sweden?
Swedish: https://www.krisinformation.se/
English: https://www.krisinformation.se/en
Well, it's working for now. Thanks to ICU capacity expanding nationally by some 80 % (with more to come) healthcare supply is keeping up with demand and there's no real evidence of exponential growth in demand yet.
The FHMs argument boils down to this, basically: some policies are more efficient than others and it's possible to flatten the curve by focusing on the effective ones even if you choose not to implement the less effective ones. For example, they've been very focused on making sure symptomatic people stay home because they're arguing they're the ones driving the epidemic; even if presymptomatic people are contagious, they're going to be less contagious and less of a concern. That's why it's now possible to stay at home to 21 days without a doctors note at 80 % pay and why it's actually really easy to call a doctor and have it extended beyond that if needed. One the other hand, they're arguing against closing primary schools because they refer to the fact that disrupting schooling for children at that age can have severe long term health effects for the kids.
People are free to agree or disagree with this approach, but it's really that simple in theory. Implement enough measures to slow down spread to a level where the healthcare system can cope and ignore measures that may seem helpful but might not be.
This is fucking infuriating.
www.aftonbladet.se
The same hospital that built by giving millions to consultants that are related to city politicians.
Makes me sick.
Dokument visar: De prioriteras bort från intensivvård
Personer med en biologisk ålder över 80 år ska prioriteras bort i intensivvården under coronakrisen. Detsamma gäller de mellan 70 och 80 år som har signifikant
www.aftonbladet.se
The same hospital that built by giving millions to consultants that are related to city politicians.
Makes me sick.
This is fucking infuriating.
Dokument visar: De prioriteras bort från intensivvård
Personer med en biologisk ålder över 80 år ska prioriteras bort i intensivvården under coronakrisen. Detsamma gäller de mellan 70 och 80 år som har signifikant
The same hospital that built by giving millions to consultants that are related to city politicians.
Makes me sick.
Don't get the wrong impression by the tabloid headline. It's a document that helps doctors prioritise ICU care in case of a shortage in a way that saves the most lives. The plan is still to make sure that it doesn't come to that, but as a doctor I'm grateful someone took the time to think things through beforehand if the worst comes to pass.
Please don't use Aftonbladet as a credible source for anything.This is fucking infuriating.
Dokument visar: De prioriteras bort från intensivvård
Personer med en biologisk ålder över 80 år ska prioriteras bort i intensivvården under coronakrisen. Detsamma gäller de mellan 70 och 80 år som har signifikant
The same hospital that built by giving millions to consultants that are related to city politicians.
Makes me sick.
Nonetheless, please describe exactly what about the information in the article is making you sick and infuriated, and how any of that differs from what any other country having to prioritize their healthcare would do at any time.
This is fucking infuriating.
Dokument visar: De prioriteras bort från intensivvård
Personer med en biologisk ålder över 80 år ska prioriteras bort i intensivvården under coronakrisen. Detsamma gäller de mellan 70 och 80 år som har signifikant
The same hospital that built by giving millions to consultants that are related to city politicians.
Makes me sick.
As someone who's actively working in a ward exclusively treating Covid-patients here in Stockholm that recommendation isn't actually as controversial as it sounds. Patients from the groups mentioned above on average have a much smaller chance to survive being put on a respirator, and that's without the damage that the virus appears to inflict on the lungs in severe cases. Doctors working in the ICU take that into account when prioritizing who to transfer. If it's likely that they won't even survive the procedure of putting them on invasive life-support, then that bed goes to someone more likely to survive. This has been the case since long before this pandemic. And the guidelines are only to take effect in a situation like the one in Italy, where there are more severely ill patients than beds available. As of right now we are still far from such a situation.
With that being said, the patients in those groups will of course get any treatment available as long as it actually helps them and doesn't actively cause more harm than good.
And NKS has been an absolute disaster since the beginning, but that has little to do with the guideline published in the article you linked.
I understand that it is in the cause of not having enough beds.
But I'm looking at it from the perspective of them paying millions and then turning around and saying this is what they must do in an emergency.
But I'm looking at it from the perspective of them paying millions and then turning around and saying this is what they must do in an emergency.
Well no matter what we need to have those guidelines in place.
Hopefully this leads to investing a lot in healthcare the coming decade.
It clearly shows the shit show that the rightwing Stockholm government and privatization have fucked us.
Hopefully people will understand that.
Ebba Busch Thor trying to score cheap points on the Social Democrats today, talking about how they left the older population and healthcare workers behind, not planning for such a situation. While I'm not a fan of the Social Democrats (I'm a lot further left, for what it's worth), her ignorance is astounding. The reason we're in this mess is because the portion of Sweden's GDP invested in the public sector on a yearly basis has decreased by roughly 130 billion SEK in the past 40 years as part of the neoliberal project of starving the state and investing the GDP in private sectors instead. No party can turn the healthcare system around when the public sector continually shrinks, unless of course they plan to use magic.
Agreed. Ebba and KD are starving for attention, and these kind of stunts are an act of desperation because KD has fallen like a rock and totally fade into obscurity. I almost dislike her more than Jimmy and that certainly says something.
It has nothing to do with the economy. They (we) believe that this is the best strategy to save as many lifes as possible in Sweden.
Maybe in 6 months when this is over we will see how well it worked. So far it seems fine.
We ain't changing travel advisories or quarantine rules tho.
I for one am happy about the rules here. I've spent the last three days cleaning out my apartment and moving across Stockholm to a new place. Really fucking bad timing with this virus just weeks before my apartment contract was about to expire.
If stores were to close and I'm not allowed to go outside, that would've conflicted with my ability to not be homeless and potentially out of a job.
Being able to visit several IKEAs the last two days to help me settle in has been a god send in these times.
Just a personal take on a weird situation from a Swede.
If stores were to close and I'm not allowed to go outside, that would've conflicted with my ability to not be homeless and potentially out of a job.
Being able to visit several IKEAs the last two days to help me settle in has been a god send in these times.
Just a personal take on a weird situation from a Swede.
What are your quarantine rules in Denmark or Norway? Is it just people who are confirmed sick or just traveled across the border, or is everybody kept inside?
Really? Do you understand the meaning of ironic?
I don't think I or try to speak for all Swedes at all. A large source of my frustration is with the way the majority of Swedes are acting, which is kind of the opposite.
Sorry for the late replies to the both of you.
Hopefully it'll change (unfortunately I doubt it) after this whole thing blows over. For all the people yelling "vi kan inte låta våra gamla dö, de har byggt upp det här landet" I truly hope they keep that in mind after everything goes back to a more normal state. It's quite infuriating to say the least that 40% out of Stockholm's deaths are based in the care centers. We've failed, big time, at least in Stockholm, but I'm sure the same thing will happen in the other regions too.
Mine biggest peeve when it comes to FHM's lack of initiative is the 500 person limit. They should've started with the limit we have today, 50 people and then brought it down to 10 if they felt it was needed. The work one was really strange too, if some can't work from home then we need to show solidarity with them and keep on working. If I have a desk job where I can sit anywhere in the world and do my job why the hell would you need me to head to work then? I'm quite lucky, so I can't really complain, my company decided that all of us should work from home over a month ago.
I'm somewhere in the middle when it comes to how we've handled this. I'm frustrated with some things that were/are being said but in the end I have to put my trust that way more knowledgeable people know what they're doing.
Thank you for everything that you're doing. I can't even imagine how rough it must be out there.
Hopefully it'll change (unfortunately I doubt it) after this whole thing blows over. For all the people yelling "vi kan inte låta våra gamla dö, de har byggt upp det här landet" I truly hope they keep that in mind after everything goes back to a more normal state. It's quite infuriating to say the least that 40% out of Stockholm's deaths are based in the care centers. We've failed, big time, at least in Stockholm, but I'm sure the same thing will happen in the other regions too.
Mine biggest peeve when it comes to FHM's lack of initiative is the 500 person limit. They should've started with the limit we have today, 50 people and then brought it down to 10 if they felt it was needed. The work one was really strange too, if some can't work from home then we need to show solidarity with them and keep on working. If I have a desk job where I can sit anywhere in the world and do my job why the hell would you need me to head to work then? I'm quite lucky, so I can't really complain, my company decided that all of us should work from home over a month ago.
I'm somewhere in the middle when it comes to how we've handled this. I'm frustrated with some things that were/are being said but in the end I have to put my trust that way more knowledgeable people know what they're doing.
Thank you for everything that you're doing. I can't even imagine how rough it must be out there.
For Norway:
Danish Q&A here:
Front page | Coronasmitte.dk
Front page of Coronasmitte.dk - website about COVID-19 in Denmark
politi.dk
I know a lot of Swedes are shitting in you but I'm mostly with you in this.
I can't say that people are treating this as seriously as they should tbh.
I think it's regional, age and attitude. I'd guess most people living in the southern parts, under 35 are huggers but at the same time I can't see how anyone (even the most degenerate huggers) would try to hug me or my gf even though we are right in the demographic.
I think I need to register a flashback account to really delve into this.
I understand your worries, and I'm sure that they have been exacerbated by your employer, the fact that you are in two risk groups and some of the directives from authorities.
But just as none of us speak for all Swedes, neither is it fair to give off the impression that all Swedes are careless idiots who treat this as child's play.
You and I both live in Stockholm, the primary area for most cases in the country. I thankfully do not have to commute to work, but I can't work from home since I work in retail. I'm actually writing this while at work atm.
I see hundreds of people every day, some are careful and some don't seem to care much at all.
Thankfully I havn't seen anyone with obvious symptoms walking around the store. I know you can still be contagious but a lot less likely if you don't cough or sneeze all over the place.
I was home for 10 days in March due to having multiple symptoms. I was symptom-free for 5 days, despite sick pay and the wooping 700-tax I get from försäkringskassan I will still be short thousands in my paycheck this month.
I have no regrets about it, but I do get annoyed when some people, including that orange turd o er in America, are acting like everything Sweden has done is wrong and doom and gloom.
As I and most people have been saying in this thread, is Sweden's way the best when it comes to saving lives right now? Probably not. But no one knows how long this will go on for, no country will be able to be on lockdown for the rest of the year.
Other countries are opening up and most others will likely follow.
Sweden's initial response should have been more severe yes. Should have started with the 50 people limit and lower if necessary. They should have adviced that everyone that could work from home should have done so earlier.
They should have mandated that the companies that runs the trains and buses couldn't decrease the traffic (to be fair, they fixed this fairly soon after it happened).
But in the end it's bareable atm. It's not great, but it's not the worst either and I hope there wont be a huge spike if people can manage to follow these less harsh instructions.
The people who can't even follow the current level of restrictions are idiots, no buts about it.
But we're not all idiots. Just trying to make the best out of what we have to work with
Överläkare: Över 80 procent överlever intensivvården
Allt fler patienter skrivs ut från intensivvården på Karolinska – och över 80 procent av de som skrivits ut från intensivvården överlever. Situationen är betydligt bättre än befarat, säger David Konrad, överläkare på IVA Karolinska universitetssjukhuset.
www.svt.se
Some information from the head doctor on ICU Karolinska sjukhuset hospital:
(translation by me)
I have no idea where this is going, but I do think there is some merit to not just blindly shutting everything down. There has been huge changes already to unemployment benefits, sick leave and child care to allow people to actually stay safe if necessary. Step one is getting people to realize the danger (not saying we're succeeded there) but step two is to follow up and actually give them a reasonable way to be safe. If you don't provide the safety nets, people will act against better knowledge because they have no choice.
I do think that Sweden has benefitted from their neighbors shutting things down more than the policy itself being a "success"
Överläkare: Över 80 procent överlever intensivvården
Allt fler patienter skrivs ut från intensivvården på Karolinska – och över 80 procent av de som skrivits ut från intensivvården överlever. Situationen är betydligt bättre än befarat, säger David Konrad, överläkare på IVA Karolinska universitetssjukhuset.
Some information from the head doctor on ICU Karolinska sjukhuset hospital:
(translation by me)
How so? There were already a lot of infected people in Sweden when everyone started locking down their borders.
Forbidding people from going out etc is more about the spread of the disease within the country rather than spread of the disease between countries to begin with.
That said, even with the positive news from the head doctor, it is too early to give a verdict on how good the policies are. It'll likely take months for that.
Another interesting thing is that the mortality level (överdödligheten) in Sweden was normal last week. Anders Tegnell mentioned this in a press conference and here is the data. It's a bit scary when you look back at week 10 and whole Europe is normal and the next week Italy is going blue and it just gets worse and worse every week.
www.euromomo.eu
EUROMOMO EuroMOMO Bulletin, Week 13, 2024
EuroMOMO pooled estimates show normal levels of excess mortality This week’s overall pooled EuroMOMO estimates of all-cause mortality for…
www.euromomo.eu
Whether a service is privatized or not is ultimately kind of besides the point. The root of the problem is how deeply the neoliberal mantra has ingrained itself into government and society, which this illustrates when everything is broken down into a dogmatic notion of purely financial "efficiency". The defining aspect is how the entire barrier between the public and private sphere, and what niche each is meant for, has completely eroded and concepts like "allmännyttan" has all but disappeared from the political conversation long ago which has helped this attitude proliferate unchallenged across state services.
... You have a higher death per million population than the U.S. You have a lower tests per million population than pretty much all of Europe and the U.S. Sweden's raw death total today is 10th in the world with 10 million population. How is that fine?
They still have a much lower death / population rate than Spain, Italy, France, the UK, Belgium, and even Switzerland though, which all went full lockdown. Also, it's worth considering that a second or third wave come fall might hit other countries much harder than Sweden.
Honest question, what is Sweden doing different, currently at this stage, that makes it seem like they'd do better than other countries that went in full lockdown? That they are building up herd immunity faster?
I guess an inofficial strategy must for the virus to spread among children and healthy adults, asking everybody older than 70 and those in the risk zone to self-isolate. Tho there's nothing to prove that it'll work.
But I think one important fact to remember about the Swedish strategy is that they're not outruling stricter measures if needed, just that right now when they still have ICU beds available they believe in measures that people will be able to follow for 1-2 years.
If (relatively) more people got infected now, which seems likely, more people could be immune when the next wave hits while other countries (Germany or Austria, for example) would basically start with zero immunity again. They are probably still far from herd immunity but even ~15-25% should have an impact slowing / lowering the spread next time.
It also seems Sweden is counting deaths differently than Norway, for example, if I understand this correctly?
To be fair, there's not much prove the other strategies will work or that the stricter lockdowns helped much.
I believe fine refers to that the the number of people in ICU are showing tendencies to flatten out, i.e., in and out are close to equal. Right now this is too close to call but we will see In the next few days. Sweden still has further capacity in regards to ICU by a margin, so the sole objective to flatten the curve (make sure the ones who need ICU care and are able to survive it, get it) seem to have worked, for now.
Testing will increase substantially this and the coming weeks so hopefully we can get an indication if we are starting to reach herd immunity in Stockholm, or can see a trend that the flat part of the curve has been reached. If so the regulations in Sweden has seemed to be sufficient. At least they do something as other flu and viruses has eradicated two months prior to usual.
The high number of deaths shows that Sweden has insufficiently isolated the risk groups. Elder care centers were locked way too late (by government, in practice many locked a week earlier). But it is worth noting that flattening the curve does not mean that there will be 0 deaths. A cure, vaccine or other, are most likely a long way away and until that day the main options are an entire world lockdown for two weeks which would eradicate the virus or hoping for herd immunity. The optimal way would be to make the ICU curve a rect function with infected and patients only from low-risk groups, this would lower both deaths and the longitivity. Entirely unmanageable task with too much risk, but still the main points are to make sure to flatten the curve and keep the risk groups safe. But the caveat is that the flatter the curve, the longer the regulations will be in effect.
New data from SCB shows that the number of deaths was higher the first week of april than usual, so I like to amend my previous statement which was based on earlier data by Euro MOMO I think, which was presented by FHM that the number of deaths is close to the normal mean. It may be that one source looks at regions and the other at the country at large. But still Stockholm has seen an higher than normal number of deaths this month. FHM still points out that Sweden includes more cases in the reported number of deaths than Italy due to easy access to compare infected data to death records, as such count people dying at home. This should not be different to other Nordic countries though, but still death toll is not the only thing to compare. (Edit: judging by the article posted by Sloane this is different to norway at least. In sweden all deaths where a person has tested positive for corona is counted, while Norway may say that a person died from a heart attack while tested positive and as such don't add it to the total. Sweden seems to be the country with least probability of a high dark figure, possibly counting "too many")
ALSO PLEASE NOTE!: Today's number of deaths will probably be very large, I'm talking in the range of 300-400. This is suspected looking as how the number of reported days have behaved the last weeks (steady number at approx 80 per day) and that the figures don't get updated as normal during the holiday period. The number today will be smeared out over the previous five days! It will not be representable of deaths over one day only. If it ends up about 200 - Great! deaths are trending downwards, if closer to 500 - not good, the trend seems so go upwards. (Updated and corrected data is available at FHMs web page)
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One thing to note is that our population density is much lower than those countries. Another thing to note is that going by the data from Apple and Google, the commute/retail/recreation statistics for Sweden aren't that far off from those of Denmark, and they're on a much harsher lockdown.
And Sweden isn't going for herd immunity through infections, that has never been the communication from the public health agency or the government, even though people like to mention it.
Currently through random sampling about 2.5% have carried the virus in the most hard hit area of Sweden (Stockholm), that is a far cry from herd immunity.
Iirc, Sweden currently counts any deaths for covid-19 in hospitals, in elder care, and any death of a person diagnosed with Covid-19 that has died within a few weeks outside of hospitals/elder care (using data from obituaries and the tax agency, no current follow up on cause of death)
Edit: I believe the public health agency also mentioned a few weeks ago that they would look at statistics for mortality for this period compared to prior years average and any large change (that goes beyond the already counted deaths) would be added to the death statistics for Covid-19, this is currently not done though SCB have started publishing statistics for this year. They've said there's not been any analysis of the data so currently nothing to comment on.
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