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Survivor 40: Winners at War |OT| 20 Years. 20 Winners. $2 MILLION PRIZE.
- Thread starter SoleSurvivor
- Start date
I've been feeling like its more likely that Wendell goes out for some reason.
Adam has so much screen time throughout this season that he just screams merge boot or final 6.
This feels like a slam dunk for Adam so it cant be him based on all the other TCs this season, right?
Wow, after all the build up of Wendell being kind of a jerkass villain, that episode felt very anticlimactic for his boot.
EPISODE 8 HIDDEN ADVANTAGE TRACKER
HIDDEN ADVANTAGE TRACKER (after 8 episodes)
IMMUNITY IDOLS
Kim (others that know of its existence - Sophie)
Sophie (others that know of its existence - Sarah)
OTHER GAME ADVANTAGES
Jeremy ("get out of tribal free" card - can only be used until Final 10; we're now at Final 11; others that know of its existence - Michele)
Sarah ("steal a vote" ability; others that know of its existence - Tony)
FIRE TOKEN TRACKER (after 8 episodes)
Total in Play = 18 (-9 from last week; two idols purchased, 5 return challenge advantages bought, 2 tokens bestowed to IC winners)
Players Left in the Game = 19
Michele = 4
Nick = 3
Denise = 2
Jeremy = 2
Sophie = 2
Tyson = 0
Everyone else still alive in the game has 1.
Everyone on the Edge of Extinction has 0.
And behold the updated fire token menu...
Purchasing an advantage in an immunity challenge is no longer in play.
Seems to me this fire token nonsense is going to amount to a whole lot of nothing in the end.
I am curious to see if the ability to communicate with the jury outside of tribal council leads anywhere compelling.
IMMUNITY IDOLS
Kim (others that know of its existence - Sophie)
Sophie (others that know of its existence - Sarah)
OTHER GAME ADVANTAGES
Jeremy ("get out of tribal free" card - can only be used until Final 10; we're now at Final 11; others that know of its existence - Michele)
Sarah ("steal a vote" ability; others that know of its existence - Tony)
FIRE TOKEN TRACKER (after 8 episodes)
Total in Play = 18 (-9 from last week; two idols purchased, 5 return challenge advantages bought, 2 tokens bestowed to IC winners)
Players Left in the Game = 19
Michele = 4
Nick = 3
Denise = 2
Jeremy = 2
Sophie = 2
Tyson = 0
Everyone else still alive in the game has 1.
Everyone on the Edge of Extinction has 0.
And behold the updated fire token menu...
Purchasing an advantage in an immunity challenge is no longer in play.
Seems to me this fire token nonsense is going to amount to a whole lot of nothing in the end.
I am curious to see if the ability to communicate with the jury outside of tribal council leads anywhere compelling.
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Was really expecting Adam to be the boot, but I'm perfectly okay with Wendell going. I won't miss him.
Sophie got what she wanted she is looking strong right now. Looks like her main problems are going to be Jeremy and maybe Tony.
Edit: I guess you can make an argument that edit protected Michelle from this boot (Usually if an important player loses a key ally like Wendell they get reduced screen time or become invisible but on a merge episode hmm).
Edit: I guess you can make an argument that edit protected Michelle from this boot (Usually if an important player loses a key ally like Wendell they get reduced screen time or become invisible but on a merge episode hmm).
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Got the extinction returnee right, but not the boot. Sophie really got her way this episode. I have to wonder how pissed she was at Wendell and Nick for voting out Yul. I also wonder if she'll start being seen as a big threat for calling the shots.
I was surprised that Sophie seemed to wield so much influence in steering the vote toward Wendell instead of Nick. I'm guessing what happened was the Sophie/Sarah/Ben contingent were leaning that way, and people like Kim, Tony, Denise, and Tyson were interested. I would imagine that Ben and Tony did a lot of the finessing here, taking info back and forth between the Jeremy and Sophie groups. It's crazy that we got to the merge episode and Tony's name didn't even come up.
Tyson coming back is okay, but I was hoping for Yul, Ethan, or Natalie more. I get all my Early Bird Pick'ems back in action (Tyson/Jeremy/Sarah), so I guess there's that.
I was a little surprised that Jeremy decided to leave Michele out of the vote. Michele is the kind of player you don't want to leave hanging. After his confessional about steering the vote without people knowing (and then failing at it), I feel like this was a super ominous episode for Jeremy.
Also, Adam is losing his mind and I am here for it. I want to listen to a podcast where he and Ben snipe at each other for an hour. They definitely have a "big brother annoyed by little brother" thing going on.
Tyson coming back is okay, but I was hoping for Yul, Ethan, or Natalie more. I get all my Early Bird Pick'ems back in action (Tyson/Jeremy/Sarah), so I guess there's that.
I was a little surprised that Jeremy decided to leave Michele out of the vote. Michele is the kind of player you don't want to leave hanging. After his confessional about steering the vote without people knowing (and then failing at it), I feel like this was a super ominous episode for Jeremy.
Also, Adam is losing his mind and I am here for it. I want to listen to a podcast where he and Ben snipe at each other for an hour. They definitely have a "big brother annoyed by little brother" thing going on.
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Good point about Jeremy. His position took a big hit today. He won immunity making him a bigger threat, he left Michelle out of the vote potentially losing her trust, he didn't get his way in the vote, and he lost a potential ally in Wendell.
Yeah, this was a disaster scenario for Jeremy.
Just to further reinforce Nightwing123's observation about the edit protecting Michele in terms of not highlighting her connection to Wendell prior to his boot, one could also argue the edit also protected Michele by distancing her from Jeremy who effectively owns the entire fallout from this episode in the minds of the viewers. Granted, highlighting Michele as isolated probably doesn't do her edit any favours, either.
Updated Fire Token menu seems lame. Three tokens to steal a reward? That's just going to piss somebody off. Two to send a message to the Edge? Maybe there's value there, but I'm not sure what yet. Could perhaps help an Edge player fake out the other Edge players just with the parchment alone. Hmm.
There's got to be something else to spend the tokens on later. I hope.
There's got to be something else to spend the tokens on later. I hope.
Oh I'm sure the Edge folk will be gifted a whole host of idols, advantages, extra votes, etc. to sell the folks still in the game in exchange for tokens. The menu's just a decoy. That's ultimately where the brunt of the value lies... although it hasn't exactly worked out well for anyone.
Sandra's idol sealed her fate. Parvati's nullifier went unused. Sarah and Jeremy still have their gimmick advantages and have yet to use them and those may wind up bust as well. Frankly, I could see this being a repeat of Island of the Idols where the season gimmick ultimately fails to directly benefit the eventual winner at all.
It feels icky to say this but....I think Ben is playing a good game. Other than his interactions with Adam(that we see), he seems to be really good at quickly getting on people's sides. He went in to merge and instantly latched on to the big target alliance, meanwhile he already had the closer ties to Sophie/Sarah. Where Jeremy and Michele seemed to come in to merge with the most ties, Ben seems like the one to make the most ties and bonds at merge.
The numbers back this up...
TRIBAL COUNCIL PERFORMANCE METRICS (through Episode 8)
Ben Driebergen - 5-0 in Voting for the Majority Target, No Votes Received
Denise Stapley - 5-0 in Voting for the Eliminated Castaway, 6 Votes Received (4 Nullified)
Adam Klein - 4-1 in Voting for the Majority Target, 7 Votes Received
Sophie Clarke - 3-1
Sarah Lacina - 3-1, 1 Vote Received (identical votes as Sophie; they've been in lockstep with one another)
Kim Spradlin - 3-1, 4 Votes Received
Nick Wilson - *3-2 (his vote for Kim during the Tyson boot ep was a self-preservation measure in the event of an idol play, treat as 3-1)
Jeremy Collins - 3-2
Tyson Apostol - *2-1 (his sole miss was for the tribal when he was voted out himself, treat as 2-0)
Tony Vlachos - 2-2
Michele Fitzgerald - 3-3
Ben's rep is for his clutch idol finding prowess but his social game is on point.
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Sophie's snap understanding of the dynamics of the tribe can't go unstated though. Ben had a good episode but Sophie may have shown the best understanding and pure will over the vote in this episode.
FANTASY REDRAFTING IS OPEN UNTIL 4/8
OP
OP
Hey guys, REDRAFTING IS OPEN UNTIL 4/8. You can redraft any players on your roster who have NOT BEEN VOTED OUT.
You're right. I just wish there was something of real value on the in-game menu. Even peanut butter for one token could be interesting.
I'm bored so here is my random thoughts on some possible power rankings after this episode. Feel completely free to ignore and move along.
Top group(most powerful, or in the best positions):
Sophie, Jeremy and Denise.
Sophie has an idol no one knows about, walked in to merge and completely read the lay of the land and was able to seeminglyl steer the vote.
Jeremy has a get out of tribal advantage, has probably the most ties and relationships in the game and was willing to tow the line with the majority and realize he wasn't going to be able to save Wendell. He has people like Ben, Tyson and Tony going to him when they want to keep big players and targets in the game and it's literally Jeremy's entire gamestyle. He's already in a majority and he has the outside players coming to him. It's hard to not see him in a really strong position.
Denise is just Denise. She just played 2 idols, was the sole vote for Sandra, and walked away from it without even being considered the largest target on the 4 person swapped tribe. It was also telling that people went to her and talked to her about voting out her closest ally. They trusted her enough to not leave her out of the vote when she was the most likely person to give that info up. Something not awarded to Michele and Nick.
Second grouping(really good position and ties, but not as much power or decision weight)
Sarah, Ben and Tony.
As I said above I think Ben is playing a really strong social game and is probably coming out of this merge episode with the most strong bonds and ties in the game. If his idol finding prowess comes back around I think he'd have the most knowledge in the game to know when and where to use them.
Sarah has her advantage and her close ties with Sophie while being aware of Sophie's idol. Coming in to the game as one of the primary targets and being at this point shows that she has that strong social game that gave her her win in the first place.
Tony is at the lowest end of this group, but I feel like it goes without saying that him even being to this point shows he's doing something right. Not only that but he has the potential for a lot to come out. I don't think he really has much power, I don't think he's really all in that amazing of a position, but he's not being a target at merge and for Tony I feel that that is pretty huge on it's own.
Limbo(This is a group I'm not entirely sure on)
Kim - I just don't know where her real stance in the game is at this point. She would never be a strong merge boot, so we just need another episode to really see where she stands.
Michele - I still hold that Michele has a lot of ties in the game. I think this vote was somewhat of an anomaly for her. We saw Jeremy was tight with her, but they didn't go to Michele in talking about voting Wendell out, but they did go to Denise about Adam. Is this seeing Michele as less worrying or was it just understanding she was closer to Wendell than they wanted?
Adam - I'm so confused by this guys stance in the game. You would think Adam was the easiest vote here at a shaky merge, and no one seems to have too close of ties with him. But...he sticks around?
Bottom:
Tyson and Nick
Top group(most powerful, or in the best positions):
Sophie, Jeremy and Denise.
Sophie has an idol no one knows about, walked in to merge and completely read the lay of the land and was able to seeminglyl steer the vote.
Jeremy has a get out of tribal advantage, has probably the most ties and relationships in the game and was willing to tow the line with the majority and realize he wasn't going to be able to save Wendell. He has people like Ben, Tyson and Tony going to him when they want to keep big players and targets in the game and it's literally Jeremy's entire gamestyle. He's already in a majority and he has the outside players coming to him. It's hard to not see him in a really strong position.
Denise is just Denise. She just played 2 idols, was the sole vote for Sandra, and walked away from it without even being considered the largest target on the 4 person swapped tribe. It was also telling that people went to her and talked to her about voting out her closest ally. They trusted her enough to not leave her out of the vote when she was the most likely person to give that info up. Something not awarded to Michele and Nick.
Second grouping(really good position and ties, but not as much power or decision weight)
Sarah, Ben and Tony.
As I said above I think Ben is playing a really strong social game and is probably coming out of this merge episode with the most strong bonds and ties in the game. If his idol finding prowess comes back around I think he'd have the most knowledge in the game to know when and where to use them.
Sarah has her advantage and her close ties with Sophie while being aware of Sophie's idol. Coming in to the game as one of the primary targets and being at this point shows that she has that strong social game that gave her her win in the first place.
Tony is at the lowest end of this group, but I feel like it goes without saying that him even being to this point shows he's doing something right. Not only that but he has the potential for a lot to come out. I don't think he really has much power, I don't think he's really all in that amazing of a position, but he's not being a target at merge and for Tony I feel that that is pretty huge on it's own.
Limbo(This is a group I'm not entirely sure on)
Kim - I just don't know where her real stance in the game is at this point. She would never be a strong merge boot, so we just need another episode to really see where she stands.
Michele - I still hold that Michele has a lot of ties in the game. I think this vote was somewhat of an anomaly for her. We saw Jeremy was tight with her, but they didn't go to Michele in talking about voting Wendell out, but they did go to Denise about Adam. Is this seeing Michele as less worrying or was it just understanding she was closer to Wendell than they wanted?
Adam - I'm so confused by this guys stance in the game. You would think Adam was the easiest vote here at a shaky merge, and no one seems to have too close of ties with him. But...he sticks around?
Bottom:
Tyson and Nick
For what it's worth, I wouldn't read too much into the tea leaves here of Michele and Nick "being left out" of the vote. They may well have been looped in but still agreed to toss votes onto Adam, knowing they wouldn't matter, so they would still evoke the impression to Wendell that they were in his good graces so as to ensure they would receive his fire tokens (which they did).
I could see Michele being looped in and her playing after the vote that she didn't know, unless I'm reading way too much into Jeremy/Michele in that preswap tribe, but Nick seemed completely left out of it and lost when Wendell was booted. I also just don't see Nick having the ties that Michele has shown to have. Nick honestly seems like the easy one on the outs at this point.