If it's starting production this month then that's all the more reason for it to come out next year. Unless it's Nintendo plan to debut this console with not too many units. Getting this console will be harder then getting a ps5 .
That sounds like the plan, yes.
As a quick aside, it also does not take super long for a product to go from a production line to sitting in a warehouse awaiting sale. Microsoft's next-gen consoles were reported late to hit production last year, but my launch Series X was manufactured in September, two months before it made its way to my home.
With that said, the issue, as you mentioned, is the amount of stock available. If Nintendo wanted millions of units to be available at launch in every region, then it would need a few months to get there. I often see 1 million units a month as an average for production output. So, if that holds true here, that that means 1 million in July, 2 by August, 3 by September, etc. Some reporting said it might launch in September, which feels wayyy too soon. But maybe Nintendo doesn't give a shit about shortages. Who knows.