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Stock Market Era |OT2| Taking SPY private at $420. Funding secured.

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zulux21

zulux21

Member
Oct 25, 2017
20,416
less said:
Sometimes, knowing when to back out is super valuable. Sure, you could have Tesla go up $80 a few days after you sell but the opposite can happen as well. Greed is the undoing of many many people.
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I've sold too early every time, but it's why I don't regret selling as it could go the other way. Still gonna suck if I got back in as the market crashes though but it's fine. Just a new opportunity to buy low and sell high if it happens and I can hold onto microsoft long term.


also CURSE YOU TESLA
Pwguisi.png


soooo close in after hours but didn't quite get under 400 yet :P
 
less

less

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,861
Hahaha. Saw that. Tesla managing to spite all those that wanted it to fall under $400 gives me joy. XD

EDIT: Aww fuck. Shortly after this post it all goes to hell. ;_;
 
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GulAtiCa

GulAtiCa

Community Resettler
Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
7,563
Also, even if you don't plan to hold long term, Battery day is in 2 & half weeks. Assuming the entire market doesn't finally super crash, it could recover.
 
less

less

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,861
Yeah, Tesla has a decent chance of recovering in the coming days especially if the Batter day news is phenomenal. The hype alone leading up to it should result in some recovery.
 
Electro15

Electro15

Member
Oct 7, 2018
323
I'm just gonna wait for tomorrow to see how much down it can go and buy. Aftermarket not looking good
 
kiguel182

kiguel182

Member
Oct 31, 2017
9,473
Tesla isn't worth that much anyway, it's all hopes and dreams. It can fall more and it makes sense.

but battery day Elon is going to hype shit up and people will buy in.
 
Daria

Daria

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,882
The Twilight Zone
im trimming my positions list tonight and moving funds into Apple, MSFT, and Tesla tomorrow if they dip another 2-4% and then holding long.

i somehow got 90% back on a $50 TSM call today which was worthless so who knows what's going to happen
 
smisk

smisk

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,019
TSLA down another 4% in the aftermarket, yikes. Luckily I only own 5 shares.
I'll probably do some selling tomorrow morning to raise cash.
 
Yog-Sothoth

Yog-Sothoth

Member
Oct 1, 2018
3,225
lasthope106 said:
I believe Tesla will be worth what it is now in 10-15 years of incredible growth and they becoming the biggest automaker in the planet. The current valuation is extremely dumb, and if you are buying at this price you are playing with fire.
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I ain't buying at the current price luckily but I ain't selling either. Even if it takes TSLA 10 years to recover or even if it suddenly went bankrupt it's like 6% of my portfolio so I'd be fine.
 
prophetvx

prophetvx

Member
Nov 28, 2017
5,368
Yog-Sothoth said:
Still no reason to sell TSLA if you're holding long term and you believe in the company imo.
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TSLA has the potential to be worth 20-30% of its current evaluation, if you look at the March lows the value of the post split stock would have been ~$82. It's had a rapid rise, it can have a rapid fall as well.

Long term it may be worth much more than that but in the short term if this trend continues it can wipe out a significant amount of ones liquidity. Given its current PE and relative competitors in relevant industries, if rationale held up it would hold its current value for 5-10 years. The market obviously doesn't work that way but if there is a huge fall there is no guarantee that there'll be a quick recovery either.
 
Xando

Xando

Member
Oct 28, 2017
27,568
PanickyFool said:
If you believe the company is going to be 50% of the global auto market.

Or 25% of the global auto market and a energy supplier the size of xom.
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Funny thing, even if Tesla owned 50% of the auto market (based on 2019 international numbers) it would trade at 64 times earnings with the current volume and a price of $400
 
Yog-Sothoth

Yog-Sothoth

Member
Oct 1, 2018
3,225
prophetvx said:
TSLA has the potential to be worth 20-30% of its current evaluation, if you look at the March lows the value of the post split stock would have been ~$82. It's had a rapid rise, it can have a rapid fall as well.

Long term it may be worth much more than that but in the short term if this trend continues it can wipe out a significant amount of ones liquidity. Given its current PE and relative competitors in relevant industries, if rationale held up it would hold its current value for 5-10 years. The market obviously doesn't work that way but if there is a huge fall there is no guarantee that there'll be a quick recovery either.
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Yeah definitely. It comes down to how much risk one can take I guess. I belive TSLA will be worth more than what it's worth even at today's ridiculous valuation but there's no denying that it's one of the riskier stocks to own, which is why I reduced my position after the split.
 
Yog-Sothoth

Yog-Sothoth

Member
Oct 1, 2018
3,225
RoKKeR said:
Yep. Watching everything unfold this year with the insane actions from the Fed has been wild.
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I could be completely wrong but I doubt today is the beginning of a trend. It might last a few days but the Fed will step in to keep the fairy tale alive with the market on life support until Trump either loses the election or no longer has something to prove. That might be when the real crash happens.
Who knows though.
 
prophetvx

prophetvx

Member
Nov 28, 2017
5,368
Yog-Sothoth said:
I could be completely wrong but I doubt today is the beginning of a trend. It might last a few days but the Fed will step in to keep the fairy tale alive with the market on life support until Trump either loses the election or no longer has something to prove. That might be when the real crash happens.
Who knows though.
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Good luck, US debt to GDP ratio now exceeds 100%. It's now among such powerhouses as Greece, Japan, Italy, Portugal, Mozambique and Angola.

The one thing that the US has going for it is that it is basically the worlds currency, so they have the ability to print more money unlike other countries but that only lasts so long.
 

SRG01

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,029
Warren Buffet has a pretty good indicator for massive downturns, and that's total market cap of the stock market versus GDP. If total market cap goes over GDP, then that's the alarm signal.

Anyhow, Yahoo Finance has pretty good interviews and analysis, and I really liked this one from today because it talks about the Gamma in the market: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKObzhmx1BM
 
MrBob

MrBob

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,671
SRG01 said:
Warren Buffet has a pretty good indicator for massive downturns, and that's total market cap of the stock market versus GDP. If total market cap goes over GDP, then that's the alarm signal.

Anyhow, Yahoo Finance has pretty good interviews and analysis, and I really liked this one from today because it talks about the Gamma in the market: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKObzhmx1BM
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Yeah that is a good interview. Lee Munson seems a little smug but good info.
 

Ashhong

Member
Oct 26, 2017
16,746
Now that I'm out of Tesla I'm excited to get back in at the bottom. Let's see how far down it goes! Still kicking myself for not selling on Monday. Weak hands are green hands dammit!
 
j_rocca42

j_rocca42

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,136
PNW
Man, the hits just keep coming after hours. Down ~11%

Easily bigger than any loss I had during the rona crash.
 
OP
OP
Sheepinator

Sheepinator

Member
Jul 25, 2018
28,165
lt519 said:
Just remember that our president will do all he can to pump the markets this month and in November to help his election chances. I expect this to bounce off that channel Sheepinator posted that would be both a healthy correction and obey the long term trend line of the market (although I am not willing to bet on that just yet). Even if it dips a little under I'm sure the fed will spin up those printers.

Just uncertain whether tech will have topped off and move sideways for a while now or not while the rest of the sectors catch up.
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Nasdaq 100 is there now in the after hours down 1.6%, at the 20d and the bottom of that channel I posted earlier. That's down 7%. Let's see if that holds.
 
GYODX

GYODX

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,265
I don't think I'm going to be changing much. I'll continue to contribute at the usual rate to my retirement portfolio, and DCA into the market bottom on my non-retirement portfolio if the trend continues.

I've got steady income, a rainy day fund, a lot of credit, and no big expenses for the foreseeable future; I can weather a sustained bear market just fine. A bear market will be good to put everyone's risk tolerances to the test!
 
Aztechnology

Aztechnology

Community Resettler
Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
14,166
Was busy today so wasn't around to watch anything, not that I should with my positions and amounts. Low amount, just my Roth contributions which I just started. I got killed a little due to Nvidia's bloodbath. I'm back down to basically where I started, and after hours will probably keep killing me. These companies E:V are so high they make me nervous, but they are large parts of the major indexes now too. I just don't really know what to do with my Roth. I may do the Ray Dalio long term plan. But I also feel like if it corrects as it should, we could see another bloodbath. Sucks, keep money in cash, lose money due to QE. Put it into the stock market and you have to deal with the massive VIX. At the end of the day I only stand to lose like 30-40% of my small holding. But it never feels good, and I'm frustrated that like everything else in my life I have no idea what to do lol.
 
zulux21

zulux21

Member
Oct 25, 2017
20,416
GYODX said:
I don't think I'm going to be changing much. I'll continue to contribute at the usual rate to my retirement portfolio, and DCA into the market bottom on my non-retirement portfolio if the trend continues.

I've got steady income, a rainy day fund, a lot of credit, and no big expenses for the foreseeable future; I can weather a sustained bear market just fine. A bear market will be good to put everyone's risk tolerances to the test!
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My plan is to shift more money to be able to be put in stocks.
Figure every $15 Microsoft goes down I can try to buy 10 more shares. I'm doing microsoft for the long term so it dropping in the short term to let me buy more for cheaper isn't the worst thing.

Still sad to see the account down so much though :P
 
Mengy

Mengy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,516
Yog-Sothoth said:
Still no reason to sell TSLA if you're holding long term and you believe in the company imo.
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Exactly. I'm not selling a single share of TSLA for years yet. It's historically a volatile stock but it's only going UP in the long term. Way up. I just don't see any reason to sell at all personally, I'm going to ride it out like I always have.

Of course that's why I'm up like 250% on it too. :)
 
rokkerkory

rokkerkory

Banned
Jun 14, 2018
14,128
zulux21 said:
My plan is to shift more money to be able to be put in stocks.
Figure every $15 Microsoft goes down I can try to buy 10 more shares. I'm doing microsoft for the long term so it dropping in the short term to let me buy more for cheaper isn't the worst thing.

Still sad to see the account down so much though :P
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MS dividend play is good too
 

Ashhong

Member
Oct 26, 2017
16,746
So when are some of you looking to buy back in with Tesla? I was averaged at like 370, sold today at 410, and have an order at 350 in case it goes that low. But 380 is kind of tempting too
 
GYODX

GYODX

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,265
MrBob said:
Call options destroyed heavily today.



Pretty sure I read someone placed a huge call bet on Docusign 305 as well heading into earnings tonight. Ouch.



Should be up 8 billion percent from the low tho.
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I remember losing $500 on options, and that was enough for me to never want to mess around with them again lol.

I'll start selling covered calls when I eventually get to 100 shares on some of my positions, though.
 

SRG01

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,029
Yog-Sothoth said:
Still no reason to sell TSLA if you're holding long term and you believe in the company imo.
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This is terrible investing advice and extremely irresponsible to say. TSLA is a high beta (read: high volatility) stock and not everyone has the same appetite for massive moves like this. Like, sure, people can get caught up in the euphoria, but there's a reason why the suicide hotline is not posted as a joke during large downward moves in the market.

As well, there's no guarantee that any stock will come back up to their euphoric highs with enough time. We saw this for BTC, cannabis stocks, etc. Belief is an extremely dangerous word in the stock market, in either direction.

The real advice is to always access your own appetite for downward moves, place stops, and invest dispassionately by analyzing the company in question. And if after that a person still wants to invest in TSLA, then that's okay. But no one should invest in a company purely on belief -- many people's livelihoods were destroyed because of it.
 
GYODX

GYODX

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,265
SRG01 said:
This is terrible investing advice and extremely irresponsible to say. TSLA is a high beta (read: high volatility) stock and not everyone has the same appetite for massive moves like this. Like, sure, people can get caught up in the euphoria, but there's a reason why the suicide hotline is not posted as a joke during large downward moves in the market.

As well, there's no guarantee that any stock will come back up to their euphoric highs with enough time. We saw this for BTC, cannabis stocks, etc. Belief is an extremely dangerous word in the stock market, in either direction.

The real advice is to always access your own appetite for downward moves, place stops, and invest dispassionately by analyzing the company in question. And if after that a person still wants to invest in TSLA, then that's okay. But no one should invest in a company purely on belief -- many people's livelihoods were destroyed because of it.
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Take Cisco for example. It's *never* gone back to its dot-com bubble ATH, even though their products are used *everywhere.*

Microsoft took 16 years to recover its dot-com bubble ATH.

Acting like Tesla is guaranteed to grow into its current insanely high valuation is very irresponsible. You're probably fine if you're an early mover, but everyone else? Not so sure.
 
smisk

smisk

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,019
Jesus, these are some of the worst after hours moves I've seen with TSLA and AMD.
Not sure what I should do in the morning, sell right away, or see if it bounces up.. Might just hang on for dear life and do a little buying if it continues down.
 
less

less

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,861
You two are right in that Tesla can leave a lot of people burned. It is a risky stock. Same as a lot of stocks though certainly to a more notable degree than most. Some people are very likely to get burned on the stock.

I believe that most of the people here already should understand that they need to do their own careful research into companies and weight the risks before jumping on a stock along with having a plan when things turn south. That said, there are also likely people that are new-ish to investing and we should make it clear exactly how they should go about considering any investment.
 
zulux21

zulux21

Member
Oct 25, 2017
20,416
that's right... there is no stock market on monday is there? (or is labor day not a day it has off?)
 

reKon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,895
Looks like I'll be able to buy at TSLA at $350 after all this year...

This is reference to post I made the other week. I'm kidding... I'm not paying $1700+ (pre-split price) for Tesla at this point.
 

SRG01

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,029
smisk said:
Jesus, these are some of the worst after hours moves I've seen with TSLA and AMD.
Not sure what I should do in the morning, sell right away, or see if it bounces up.. Might just hang on for dear life and do a little buying if it continues down.
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At one point, AMD was the highest beta stock on the NASDAQ... or was it S&P? I forget.
 
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