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LiquidSolid

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,731
Huh? 360 and X1 were both bombs in Japan. X1 bombed harder because Microsoft gave up, but given the effort and the fact it played almost all the same games as PS3 with better performance at a lower price, there's really no other explanation outside of nationalism of some sort.
I can't believe people still push this idiotic and, frankly, racist console wars bullshit. As if performance and price are the only things that matter, not marketing, brand power, usability and long term support. People act like Japan should've embraced the 360 because Microsoft graced them with real effort for a whole two years, as if that would've worked anywhere coming off a massive flop like the oXbox (hell, the 360 didn't even take off in the US in its first 2-3 years). The reality is Microsoft had no long term plan and when their short term plan didn't produce immediate results, they pulled the plug. But nope, let's conveniently ignore how much Japan loves other western products and just blame it on xenophobia.

The funny thing about this bullshit is that it isn't even that unique. It's the same thing we've seen in a lot of other non-English countries, just amplified because the Japanese market is so different than everywhere else.

Sorry pal. NPD does not cover every territory, so that graph is a worldwide estimate and is clearly factually wrong, as 360 had shipped 84 million as of June 9 2014, but this shows less than that to December 2016.

That graph also doesn't line up with Sony's figures, as the PS3 would have to be at more than the ~83 million that graph shows to the end of 2016 to be at the 87.4m as of March 2017 quoted by Sony here.
Zhuge's vouched for the EEDAR when they've reported figures in the past and said they have access to the same data he does, so no, they don't seem to just have their own internal NPD data.

And I don't think you're reading the chart right if you think the 360 bar is lower than 84 million, it looks like it's ~85 million to me (with PS3 at ~86 million).
 

Welfare

Prophet of Truth - You’re my Numberwall
Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,923
Xbox One being close to 13m by the end of 2014 isn't actually that unrealistic. Microsoft stated WW shipments of the Xbox One were 5m in April 2014, and then 10m in the beginning to middle of November 2014. Given we know Q4 of that year was 6.6m combined sales for both systems, if Xbox One was already close to 10m by early Nov, it makes sense that Nov+Dec could take it up to closer to 12-13m.
It was 'approaching" 10M sales and was announced at 10M shipped on December 3rd, 2014.

https://www.destructoid.com/xbox-one-approaching-10-million-units-shipped-283796.phtml

https://web.archive.org/web/2016113....aspx?eventid=151407&Search=true&SearchType=0

And again, sell through estimates are not that generous for XB1 at the end of 2014. 11M is pretty much the very high end and there would not be ~2M unsold when the PS4 only had 1.4M unsold. My personal estimate would be ~10.5M sold through back then, so shipments would not be much over 12M since Microsoft wouldn't want another situation where retailers tell them they can't take more units.
 

msdstc

Member
Nov 6, 2017
6,885
I believed it since the PS3 was outselling the 360 from day 1, launch aligned.

360 was seen to be selling more simply because it came out a year earlier and so numbers were comparing apples to oranges.

This isn't entirely true. 360 seemed to be selling more because it was absolutely destroying it in the us. Meanwhile the 360 basically sold 0 in jp and eu started somewhat close then Sony pulled away. Microsoft was never able to gain traction in jp, but they put a huge dent in the us console space. Sony probably could've sunk msft entirely if they didn't stumble so hard out the gate, especially given the rrod fiasco.
 

nib95

Contains No Misinformation on Philly Cheesesteaks
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
18,498
It was 'approaching" 10M sales and was announced at 10M shipped on December 3rd, 2014.

https://www.destructoid.com/xbox-one-approaching-10-million-units-shipped-283796.phtml

https://web.archive.org/web/2016113....aspx?eventid=151407&Search=true&SearchType=0

And again, sell through estimates are not that generous for XB1 at the end of 2014. 11M is pretty much the very high end and there would not be ~2M unsold when the PS4 only had 1.4M unsold. My personal estimate would be ~10.5M sold through back then, so shipments would not be much over 12M since Microsoft wouldn't want another situation where retailers tell them they can't take more units.

What you're implying for 360 shipments would leave a similarly large number of unsold 360's, which is arguably far less likely given the console was facing huge sales declines and would ultimately be phased out by its successor. The Xbox One was also the best selling console for NPD Dec 2014, selling through over 1.2m in December alone in just the US (roughly the same in a single month as the 360 sold over the entirety of 2014), so if it had 10m shipped before the month of Dec, who really knows what it may have following it.
 
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SilverX

Member
Jan 21, 2018
13,105
This isn't entirely true. 360 seemed to be selling more because it was absolutely destroying it in the us. Meanwhile the 360 basically sold 0 in jp and eu started somewhat close then Sony pulled away. Microsoft was never able to gain traction in jp, but they put a huge dent in the us console space. Sony probably could've sunk msft entirely if they didn't stumble so hard out the gate, especially given the rrod fiasco.

No way, MS is much bigger than just Xbox. Not only that, Halo was massive on the original Xbox and was poised to be even bigger on the 360 especially since it was the cheaper console with a full year start on the market. Even if the PS3 did amazingly well the 360 would have been just fine.

Now, I really do believe if the Xbox One was a bigger success than the 360 was then PlayStation and Sony would have been done for. They were still hurting financially at the start of this gen, if the Xbox One stole the spotlight then Sony's only chance of recovery would have been gone.
 

Welfare

Prophet of Truth - You’re my Numberwall
Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,923
What you're implying for 360 shipments would leave a similarly large number of unsold 360's, which is arguably far less likely given the console was facing huge sales declines and would ultimately be phased out by its successor. The Xbox One was also the best selling console for NPD Dec 2014, selling through over 1.2m in December alone in just the US (roughly the same in a single month as the 360 sold over the entirety of 2014), so if it had 10m shipped before the month of Dec, who really knows what it may have following it.
10M shipped at the beginning of December would mean sell through would be well below that, considering they were stocking up for December and November just had a 1.2M NPD, and Xbox One wasn't supply constrained anywhere in the world after Black Friday.

12M shipped is a good estimate for XB1. Much more above that isn't that believable, and it's because of that how I and others back on GAF estimated 360's portion of shipments. We didn't worry about how they fit in with potential PS3 shipments, they had to make sense with the XB1 first.

Just because PS3 ended at a certain number doesn't mean 360 must fit below that, no matter what the perception or trend was back in 2014. Microsoft sharing combined shipments and the Xbox One's own sales history point to the 360 being above the PS3's 87.4M
 

Deleted member 20297

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
6,943
10M shipped at the beginning of December would mean sell through would be well below that, considering they were stocking up for December and November just had a 1.2M NPD, and Xbox One wasn't supply constrained anywhere in the world after Black Friday.

12M shipped is a good estimate for XB1. Much more above that isn't that believable, and it's because of that how I and others back on GAF estimated 360's portion of shipments. We didn't worry about how they fit in with potential PS3 shipments, they had to make sense with the XB1 first.

Just because PS3 ended at a certain number doesn't mean 360 must fit below that, no matter what the perception or trend was back in 2014. Microsoft sharing combined shipments and the Xbox One's own sales history point to the 360 being above the PS3's 87.4M
Thanks for your analysis of sales data and insights to this topic. In the end it only shows that there is no clear winner for the second place in the last gen race and whoever actually won did so I'm a way that it hardly matters anyway and potentially could also mean that it is within a margin of error from either side.

Also holy shit at liquidsolid: how is saying that the western market being different than the Japanese market are different even remotely racist? And then you even mention console wars after that. This is exceptionally weak arguing.
 

plow

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,658
Wait, there's a $50 paywall to access that source? Yeah I don't have access to this so I'm going to have to take your word.

Just out of curiosity, if you could humor me, could you tell me in which place does Mexico rank? And does it rank higher or lower than Brazil? I'd like to know if we're still the #1 market in Latin America and how we compare vs the rest of the world (probably behind all of Western Europe, Japan, Australia, US and Canada).

I don't know why, but if i access the link through here i have to pay too, through Google it works somehow.


XQCyHzV_d.jpg
 
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nib95

Contains No Misinformation on Philly Cheesesteaks
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
18,498
You can't when you have incomplete data and given the discussion started by Welfare even without Microsoft telling us anything it could go either way in the end.

I mean, it's not just everything discussed and the fact that the PS3 had already been outselling the 360 for some time (thus closing the gap over a prolonged period of time to where both were officially nigh on neck and neck before we stopped getting official figures), but also that the NPD group and several other major data and analyst firms, groups etc all confirmed the exact same thing, that the PS3 had overtaken the 360 in global sales.

But let's just ignore all these institutes and firms who's job it is to track and estimate this sort of thing, along with general common sense itself, and just go with forum poster wishful thinking instead.
 

KenobiLTS

Banned
Nov 27, 2018
1,166
It's the best educated guess you can make it you concentrate on data and play blind by believing that 360 didn't sell a unit after MS' last reported number but it's not *confirmed*.
Well we can't talk numbers based on guesses! What If MS decides not to announce sell numbers like forever?
 

Deleted member 20297

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
6,943
I mean, it's not just everything discussed and the fact that the PS3 had already been outselling the 360 for some time (thus closing the gap over a prolonged period of time to where both were officially nigh on neck and neck before we stopped getting official figures), but also that the NPD group and several other major data and analyst firms, groups etc all confirmed the exact same thing, that the PS3 had overtaken the 360 in global sales. But let's just ignore all these institutes and firms who's job it is to track and estimate this sort of thing, and just go with forum poster wishful thinking instead.
I think Welfare is more than just a forum poster and you are not even replying to him anymore for whatever reason.
ZhugeEX could you please say something here. It's going back and forth and everybody argues for his favorite platform anyway. What's your opinion on this? Can you follow Welfares reasoning?
 

Deleted member 20297

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
6,943
Well we can't talk numbers based on guesses! What If MS decides not to announce sell numbers like forever?
What if? Nothing if. Wii won the generation, PS3 was the worst selling PlayStation home console, 360 the best sellibg Xbox console, both were battling for the second place and in the end both were close together to a point where it hardly matters anyway but it could be that Sony sold a little bit more.
 

nib95

Contains No Misinformation on Philly Cheesesteaks
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
18,498
I think Welfare is more than just a forum poster and you are not even replying to him anymore for whatever reason.
ZhugeEX could you please say something here. It's going back and forth and everybody argues for his favorite platform anyway. What's your opinion on this? Can you follow Welfares reasoning?

In his posts he posted inaccurate figures or year on year percentage differences. Which he really should have known given he himself responded to posts that clarified those differences in the past.

I'm still not entirely sure where he came up with some of his percentages, or why he went with a more modest 50% year on year difference for his prediction, when the actual percentage drop, and even his own one's posted later, were higher.

But it doesn't really matter. He and others can believe what they want contrary to all other evidence, trends, speculation, analysis and information from analyst and data firms and so on. What we're to believe is that the moment both companies stopped releasing official data (prior to Sony's new figures yesterday) the Xbox 360 magically reversed the trend of the PS3 near consistently outselling it globally, and also ignore that the PS3 was in circulation for longer too.
 
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Feb 26, 2018
2,753
What if? Nothing if. Wii won the generation, PS3 was the worst selling PlayStation home console, 360 the best sellibg Xbox console, both were battling for the second place and in the end both were close together to a point where it hardly matters anyway but it could be that Sony sold a little bit more.
If it hardly matters why are you so afraid of the fact that PS3 sold more?
 

Kerotan

Banned
Oct 31, 2018
3,951
Huh, I thought the PSP had sold 80 million. So the 3DS will surpass it in the end.
That depends. Haven't they forecasted just 1. 5 million for the next year? That would leave it short and they could discontinue it before then. I also don't think these are the final PSP shipments. Look at the date. It was still selling long after.
 

Anubis

User requested permanent ban
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
10,392
You can't when you have incomplete data and given the discussion started by Welfare even without Microsoft telling us anything it could go either way in the end.
Onus is on you to provide evidence. Thus far, we can only go by facts available and that includes PS3 edged out for 2nd.
 
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Anubis

User requested permanent ban
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
10,392
What if? Nothing if. Wii won the generation, PS3 was the worst selling PlayStation home console, 360 the best sellibg Xbox console, both were battling for the second place and in the end both were close together to a point where it hardly matters anyway but it could be that Sony sold a little bit more.
It's not normative. Sony did sell more as reported unless otherwise stated by Microsoft.
 

Unaha-Closp

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,746
Scotland
I still have my fat bc PS3 from back in the day. Even with headphones it sounds like a jet engine in your room. Might fire it up to let it roar once more. Most fun in games I've had have been on PlayStation so I'm looking forward to PS5. I keep getting older and they keep putting out PlayStations. I've bought each one so let's keep the train going.
 

Welfare

Prophet of Truth - You’re my Numberwall
Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,923
In his posts he posted inaccurate figures or year on year percentage differences. Which he really should have known given he himself responded to posts that clarified those differences in the past.

I'm still not entirely sure where he came up with some of his percentages, or why he went with a more modest 50% year on year difference for his prediction, when the actual percentage drop, and even his own one's posted later, were higher.

But it doesn't really matter. He and others can believe what they want contrary to all other evidence, trends, speculation, analysis and information from analyst and data firms and so on. What we're to believe is that the moment both companies stopped releasing official data (prior to Sony's new figures yesterday) the Xbox 360 magically reversed the trend of the PS3 near consistently outselling it globally, and also ignore that the PS3 was in circulation for longer too.
You're accusing me of being inaccurate now? Actually prove that instead of basically throwing my name in the mud. I'll recheck and retype literally everything then, so prove me wrong.

Code:
    Xbox 360
 
2013 to 2014            
Q1    -68%
Q2    -51%
Q3    -53%
Q4    -53%

YTD    -57%
     
2014 to 2015            
Q1    -43%
Q2    -55%
Q3    -54%
Q4    -64%

YTD    -57%

2015 to 2016            
Q1    -51%
Q2    -52%
Q3    -46%
Q4    -63%

YTD    -55%

More data comes out throughout the years so don't accuse me of being wrong if non rounded YTD data is now 1% different then when we first got data.

Every single post I explained exactly how I came up with those percentages, first trying to just look purely at 360 data, then moving onto XB1 data because its shipments are the more important split, so those take priority in figuring out over 360, because having an estimated XB1 will give us the 360 number. We can't do 360 to XB1 because the XB1 takes priority.

Literally the only data point we have for 2014 shipments (Q1) showed they did not follow US sell through YOY data (-38% vs -68%) my initial -50% drops for 2014 shipments are more inline with data we have than not. The -60% drops I posted later were an attempt to just match YTD drops because you were saying -50% was too generous. In the end, it worthless because the 360 data needs to fit with the XB1 in 2014.

You know what's hilarious? This specifically "What we're to believe is that the moment both companies stopped releasing official data (prior to Sony's new figures yesterday) the Xbox 360 magically reversed the trend of the PS3 near consistently outselling it globally"

These were the final two quarters of 360 shipments we have.

Q4 2013: 3.5M
Q1 2014: 800K

PS3 shipments?

Q4 2013: 3.3M
Q1 2014: 700K

SO again, the data we have doesn't point to PS3 outselling 360 in any way. PS3 was always behind 360 LTD and we don't know the final shipment quarter for 360 to begin with. At most for PS3, it was what, 3 extra quarters of shipping ~100K?

I'll never post something in the form of debate on this site unless I think there's enough evidence for my side. Never accuse me of the contrary unless you can back that up. You have to first prove the Xbox One shipments for 2014 before even bringing up PS3 "constantly outselling it" when PS3 shipments literally do not affect 360 shipments in 2014, only the XB1 does.
 

ZhugeEX

Senior Analyst at Niko Partners
Verified
Oct 24, 2017
3,099
I think Welfare is more than just a forum poster and you are not even replying to him anymore for whatever reason.
ZhugeEX could you please say something here. It's going back and forth and everybody argues for his favorite platform anyway. What's your opinion on this? Can you follow Welfares reasoning?

First of all. Why do people care so much about this?
Secondly, given the public data available it does look like Xbox 360 would have passed PS3's 87.4m figure sometime in the second half of 2015. Either that or Xbox One sold way more than we think, which wouldn't make sense.
 

KillerMan91

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,372
This isn't entirely true. 360 seemed to be selling more because it was absolutely destroying it in the us. Meanwhile the 360 basically sold 0 in jp and eu started somewhat close then Sony pulled away. Microsoft was never able to gain traction in jp, but they put a huge dent in the us console space. Sony probably could've sunk msft entirely if they didn't stumble so hard out the gate, especially given the rrod fiasco.

This is bit untrue. While PS3 eventually sold way more in Europe as a whole X360 also did decent numbers in Europe too. UK and US make up for about 50 million of X360 sales so over 30 million sold elsewhere. Mainly in mainland Europe.
 

JackLinks

Banned
Mar 21, 2019
353
the key thing with the ps3, psp and vita is that they showed that sony are fallible

Microsoft can easily challenge sony if they make the right moves, particularly with Sony's diiminished presence in japan. Nintendo are already challenging them with the switch
 

Deleted member 20297

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
6,943
First of all. Why do people care so much about this?
Secondly, given the public data available it does look like Xbox 360 would have passed PS3's 87.4m figure sometime in the second half of 2015. Either that or Xbox One sold way more than we think, which wouldn't make sense.
Thanks a lot for your time and opinion.
 

Welfare

Prophet of Truth - You’re my Numberwall
Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,923
First of all. Why do people care so much about this?
Secondly, given the public data available it does look like Xbox 360 would have passed PS3's 87.4m figure sometime in the second half of 2015. Either that or Xbox One sold way more than we think, which wouldn't make sense.
I just tried showing how what you said is possible.

But that isn't good enough for some people I guess *shrug*

It's whatever though. The data is out there.
 

nib95

Contains No Misinformation on Philly Cheesesteaks
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
18,498
You're accusing me of being inaccurate now? Actually prove that instead of basically throwing my name in the mud. I'll recheck and retype literally everything then, so prove me wrong.

Code:
    Xbox 360

2013 to 2014     
Q1    -68%
Q2    -51%
Q3    -53%
Q4    -53%

YTD    -57%

2014 to 2015     
Q1    -43%
Q2    -55%
Q3    -54%
Q4    -64%

YTD    -57%

2015 to 2016     
Q1    -51%
Q2    -52%
Q3    -46%
Q4    -63%

YTD    -55%

More data comes out throughout the years so don't accuse me of being wrong if non rounded YTD data is now 1% different then when we first got data.

Every single post I explained exactly how I came up with those percentages, first trying to just look purely at 360 data, then moving onto XB1 data because its shipments are the more important split, so those take priority in figuring out over 360, because having an estimated XB1 will give us the 360 number. We can't do 360 to XB1 because the XB1 takes priority.

Literally the only data point we have for 2014 shipments (Q1) showed they did not follow US sell through YOY data (-38% vs -68%) my initial -50% drops for 2014 shipments are more inline with data we have than not. The -60% drops I posted later were an attempt to just match YTD drops because you were saying -50% was too generous. In the end, it worthless because the 360 data needs to fit with the XB1 in 2014.

You know what's hilarious? This specifically "What we're to believe is that the moment both companies stopped releasing official data (prior to Sony's new figures yesterday) the Xbox 360 magically reversed the trend of the PS3 near consistently outselling it globally"

These were the final two quarters of 360 shipments we have.

Q4 2013: 3.5M
Q1 2014: 800K

PS3 shipments?

Q4 2013: 3.3M
Q1 2014: 700K

SO again, the data we have doesn't point to PS3 outselling 360 in any way. PS3 was always behind 360 LTD and we don't know the final shipment quarter for 360 to begin with. At most for PS3, it was what, 3 extra quarters of shipping ~100K?

I'll never post something in the form of debate on this site unless I think there's enough evidence for my side. Never accuse me of the contrary unless you can back that up. You have to first prove the Xbox One shipments for 2014 before even bringing up PS3 "constantly outselling it" when PS3 shipments literally do not affect 360 shipments in 2014, only the XB1 does.

Your earlier assessment had the drop at 50%, despite your own assessment here showing more (57%).

Also, where are you getting these PS3 quarterly results from? Sony stopped releasing quarterly figures ending March 31st 2012.

What we know is that up to March 2012, the PS3 had sold 63.9 million consoles worldwide.
https://www.eurogamer.net/articles/...ystation-sales-but-also-a-dip-in-sonys-losses

We also know that up to January 2012 (two months earlier), the 360 sold 66 million worldwide.
https://www.neowin.net/news/66-million-xbox-360-units-and-18-million-kinect-units-sold/

Then in October 2013 the 360 had reached 80 million worldwide.
https://www.gamespot.com/articles/xbox-360-sales-reach-80-million-units/1100-6415644/

Whilst the PS3 reached 80 million worldwide just a couple of weeks later.
https://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2013-11-06-playstation-3-sales-hit-80-million

In other words, the PS3 had made up a global deficit in sales of over 2 million from the previous year, meaning it had to have been selling more globally (not to mention it launched 1+ year later initially anyway), which is what all sales tracking data firms and analysts reported too.

Then we also had several big data and analyst firms come out with data that eventually had the PS3 ahead of the 360 in global sales too, including the NPD Group, International Data Corporation Study/Games Industry International, Strategy Analytics, DFC Intelligence and others, but I suppose you think they're all wrong.
 
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