So where do we go from here?
Many people over the last 24 hours have sworn off electoralism. More power to you, if that's what you want to do. I would suggest turning your energies to labor struggles and trying to build alternate centers of power. I'd also say you're wasting your time if you think LARPing with the Austin Red Guard will do anything.
For everyone else, these are my not-so-organized ramblings.
I've been spending the day processing what happened last night, and while some people will still hold out hope for a Bernie comeback, I think it's pretty clear that Biden will take the nomination. A sober analysis of the results shows that Bernie failed to turn out the youth and that he continues to struggle with particular voting blocs. We have to be able to come to grips with this if we're going to make any progress going forward.
Bernie's campaign and his theory of change are founded on the idea that large numbers of people don't vote because they see all politicians as part of the same, bought off class of bloodsuckers, but that if you speak to them and offer them something that will benefit them materially, you can mobilize them to vote. As an outsider to the Democratic Party, Bernie rejected the typical strategies employed by other Dems in favor of bringing in a new alliance of voters who would presumably be in favor of his cause. This didn't happen - or, rather, there were simply more people willing to vote for the safe choice of Biden than people willing to take a gamble on the more radical alternative. His campaign formed a sharpened voting base that was meant to cut through a divided field with 30% support. He succeeded in crafting that base, but not in expanding it. Until we can figure out (if we can figure out?) a way to get young people more active, since ideally we don't want to wait 20 more years until Boomers are all dead, we HAVE to engage better with broader audiences. If you don't, and you wish to turn away from electoralism, what exactly is your plan? How are you going to mobilize a general strike or insurrection when you can't even get people to go cast a ballot? Those things happen when material conditions permit them. That's not where this country is yet or those things would already be bubbling up.
Socialism cannot be, and must not be, the sole domain of young online people. Socialism is not an identity. It's a system, one that is meant to encompass all people, and that means electoralists need to find ways to appeal to all people. If you cannot win an election without the Boomers and Karens, then you better figure out how to appeal to the Boomers and Karens - at least to a better degree than you do already. Karen has just as much a right to control the means of production as you.
Bernie has three particular blocs that he struggles with - old people, middle class suburbanites, and black voters. Boomers want stability and they're terrified of the s-word; the second group also want stability as a consequence of their class position; the third is a bit trickier. Let's start there.
The 2016 Bernie campaign was rightfully criticized for its numerous racial gaffes, with Bernie constantly putting his foot in his mouth due to his lack of familiarity with black issues, having come from the very white state of Vermont. He took this to heart and rebuilt his 2020 campaign to be highly intersectional, and the diversity of his base shows the fruits of that labor(especially with Latinos!). It would no doubt put to bed the myth of the all-white Bernie Bros. if liberals could be honest for a minute about Bernie's supporters. And we know from the first three states that Bernie was favored by non-Southern black voters (not sure about NV here, actually), and from the pre-SC polls that Bernie was actually neck and neck or even overtaking Biden with black voters nationally. What this means is that black voters are not lost to socialists. First, they're not a monolith who just blindly vote for the establishment Dems. That's a racist caricature that needs to be stamped out. We know that as with other blocs there is a generational divide - Bernie tends to win or at least do well with young black voters, but loses handily with old black voters. This is no different than every other demo, except that even when he wins with young black voters, it seems to be by a lower amount. What we see, overall, is a bloc of voters who are by and large pragmatic in their decisions, because they need to be more than perhaps most other groups in this country. When Bernie had the momentum, he was starting to earn a lot of trust and support - but it was tenuous, and he failed to lock it down. He failed to transition to unifier status, to demonstrate that he was the best choice to defeat Trump. And that gave the establishment a chance to shore up behind Biden and to remind people of why he was the safe bet.
Black voters are not unreachable. There may be a hefty amount of black voters who are more conservative or moderate on average than other Dems by virtue of being forced into the party on account of the GOP's racism, but they know better than most how racist this country is and would like to see policies that would help end those injustices. We can improve greatly here by promoting more black comrades and people more intimately connected to and familiar with the needs and preferences of black voters. They want change. But they also need assurances that the Dem will win (in other words, that the other voting blocs won't freak out). And that can, and does, lead to strategic voting.
If that's the case, then we need to make ourselves the choice of strategic voters - or at least reduce the margins enough that even if we lose them, it's not a blowout.
Middle class suburbanites. Unlike the previous group, this one will always be hostile to socialism as a result of their class position - or they would be, if the middle class was not in the process of being liquidated, proletarianized, precarified. Remember, there is no actual "middle class" in the way Americans like to view it. Class is based on control of the MoP. Work with that. Everyone hates their boss, even (especially?) PMCs. We must remind them that they are also exploited workers, even if they are labor aristocrats. There is a lot we can play with here regarding economic struggles, but as a result of this group's bougie dreams, they tend to dislike the sort of rough and tumble, aggressive attitude of someone like Bernie. They want someone more cerebral, more academic - a Warren or Buttigieg or Obama. They want someone who reflects their own class dreams and aspirations and, failing to get it, will settle for the candidate who is more familiar and comforting like Biden. Socialists are always going to have an edge to them that people in this group are fearful of - but imagine if eloquent Buttigieg had followed more in the philosophical footsteps of his father, or if Warren was a bit more left. We can make inroads here. It just requires that we have some candidates who reflect these attitudes. AOC has the sort of charm and grace that I think a lot of these people are drawn to, but she may be too green for them right now. The other thing to remember is that these are the Resistance types who are proud to support the party and establishment. Someone who has worked through the party will be seen as less hostile than an independent who is trying to hijack the party. So far, it seems most demsocs are trying to infiltrate the party rather than pull a Bernie. That should help reduce fears about "disloyalty".
Old people - the toughest bloc to break into. They have decades and decades of propaganda that has formed their view of socialism, and studies show that people tend to stick to the beliefs formed during their 20s throughout their lives. But we have the best policies for them, bar none. Hammer that like there's no tomorrow and hope you can peel some of them off. I believe Bernie could have done this if he wasn't so entirely focused on youth and non-voter turnout.
It's a fairly daunting task to try to reorganize our methods of outreach to meet all these different and differing groups, but again - unless your plan is to just wait until 2040 or 2050 when Millennials and Gen Z are running the show, it has to be done. And if we just sit around and wait, the movement will collapse. Once Bernie's campaign is done, there will be no figurehead to solidify around unless AOC takes a shot in 2024, which we can't just assume. And socialism is about the masses, not leaders. So we must appeal to the masses, learn from the masses, be the masses.
Since we cannot know yet what the 2024 presidential race will look like, we need to find ways to keep socialism moving forward without it. That means doubling down on linking up with other activist movements, unions in particular, and building local power, whether electorally or otherwise. One of the prime problems that socialists face is that they are still often viewed as crazy kooks. Bernie and AOC have done a ton to start smashing that apart, but we need to go further. If we are going to convince the blocs that Bernie is losing that our theory is beneficial to them, we need to earn their trust. Building alliances and local power does that. When you have socialists everywhere reliably running things like sewer socialists, it will only help show their competence and value. It gets us more in touch with the masses, from whom our line must be drawn, and will encourage more people to join the ranks. The fact that I even have to say that shows the disconnect rhst exists between caddes and voters right now - we need to connect more, draw more from the working class, take more city council seats and state senate seats and so forth. The bench will grow so that we have more candidates to choose from in the future, which will help us connect to even more voters. Keep fighting for Congressional seats, even if we lose them. And even if we don't have a good presidential offer in a given year, keep holding the candidates who are running's feet to the fire.
There are great dangers inherent in reformism that I don't think I need to repeat here, at least not for this audience. I very much dislike that socialism in the US is primarily an electoral movement that separates "us" from "them", with the implication that "we" need to "educate" "them". I wish we had more of a presence in labor, but labor is so weak right now that it would not have much political value. The age of soviets controlling the government is past us, and the material conditions in the US are such that people have a weird hybrid stable-precarity that they aren't quite ready to abandon. Hence, we are forced by necessity to turn to liberal democratic elections. And we've gotten good results, to be fair! Bernie has done a lot for our movement. Socialism is now stronger in the US than its been in half a century. There was an exit poll from Texas - Texas! - showing a 57% favorable view of the word. People may not know what it means, but they know they like it. And with Bernie completing his role, we now have a chance to ensure everyone knows it means more than just social democracy.
We know that the fundamentals won't change under a Biden presidency. The dialectical struggle underpinning all of this rages on unabated. That means all the same issues destroying the country and the world will continue with some bandaids slapped on. We are in a better position now to be the alternative voice of reason and to build on the failures that will inevitably result. Liberalism cannot save itself - it can only delay its inevitable rot. Let us engage with the masses so that they can save themselves before the system collapses.
Fight, fail, fight again, fail again, fight again - until the people's victory.
