I know which studio I trust more and which game I'm looking forward to more, but I wouldn't doubt for a second that Halo is a bigger IP than TLOU. Can't say I've ever seen considered the possibility that it wasn't.
TLOU sold 17m copies across 2 SKUs, and the PS4 version launched during the "PS4 has no gamez" drought.
The last sales figures MS reported on Halo 3 were 14.5m copies sold by 2012, so about 5 years after release.
Then take further into consideration that Xbox took a massive downturn this gen, yeah, it doesn't look like Halo is as big as it used to be, but if XB1 had sold in line with expectations going into the gen, the sales figures would've been monstrous for Halo 5. The hype is absolutely palpable for Infinite now, especially with MCC coming to PC, so that bodes well for Infinite.
I doubt we'll get sales figures next gen though, because of Game Pass. MS claims it doesn't hurt sales, but I don't think they're being totally forthcoming about what the data tells them. No doubt it'll do well on steam and the MAU figures will be huge, but I doubt it beats TLOU II at retail. That doesn't make TLOU the bigger IP though.