Show me a political analyst that has cracked how the Brexit disaster could have been averted once it was set in motion?
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Secret dossier reveals Jeremy Corbyn’s strategy was crude and vindictive (Sunday Times UK)
- Thread starter Kirblar
- Start date
Show me a political analyst that has cracked how the Brexit disaster could have been averted once it was set in motion?
The analysis of "if only old people would die already we'd have our socialist paradise" assumes that people don't change their votes throughout their life time. The truth of the matter is that some of these >50 year old voters were Labour voters in the past, and that at least some 18 year olds who voted Labour today will vote Tory in the future. It's not static.
Where did I ever say all people are the same? I said who you vote for carries the baggage of what they do/have done/will do.
You are responsible for that with your vote. It doesn't matter if you plead you are a single issue voter. You are still responsible for what you vote for.
This was a general election, you voted to give the Tories another 5 years after the 10 the country has just faced.
Tories changing their additives towards gay people is an example of a party adopting a new position due to changing political and social tides in order to protect their other interests.
That's exactly what a politically savvy party does, adapt. Not double down on failing tactics.
No it's not, I've said as much myself.
But a big issue in England is Queen and country unionism and some of that might finally die off once the Queen is dead and some of the olds who hang on to WW2 are dead.
Classism festers within British unionism and the monarchy.
One of the best things that might happen to the English is the UK ending. It will certainly accelerate the death of British Unionism.
Ok, but how do Labour solve the Brexit problem then?
It made the election fundamentally unwinnable for Labour, as I have explained in previous posts in this thread, including the one you replied to.
The correct stance was a people's vote, but that doesn't work in England which seems to be Brexit unhinged. Labour did the correct thing, in the end, but got punished anyway because British people are actually scared of democracy when told people might change their mind.
Look at Scotland, we've never to get another chance to leave the UK because if you say no once what democracy actually means is never being allowed to change your mind in the future. Even if things completely fucking change.
I mean, why do we even have elections to change Governments? Tories furiously trying to find a way to stop elections every 5 years and stay in charge forever! The British people spoke in 2019, never again should the UK be able to say it wants another Government.
What do you mean you want to divorce your partner because 10 years in they treat you like shit? God said marriage was forever.
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I mean, the election plan detailed here contains a list of issues that could have been addressed without telling POC to "fuck off" or needing to "solve" Brexit.
The problem with all-or-nothing thinking is very rarely does an all-or-nothing approach to any situation lead to the most desirable outcome.
You can see the issues Labor had here and address much of them without throwing the baby out with the bath water.
Not spend 2 years doing "constructive ambiguity" and when they finally come out with a stance they can parrot on TV, not pick the one that alienates both sides.
the article feels a bit like blaming labour for trying to play to win and losing 1-6 instead of going for damage limitation, putting 10 men behind the ball and still losing 1-0. i don't think one is inherently worse than the other as a strategy. the election could have gone differently, it's hindsight bias to assume defeat was inevitable and should only have been attempted to be mitigated.
it also treats activists as a disposable resource when in reality people are a lot more motivated to campaign for candidates that meet their personal values than re-elect caroline flint so she can vote for a tory hard brexit anyway.
why labour and the people's vote campaign lost so spectacularly will be litigated for a long time to come and most analyses so far (including my own) are superficial and primarily about grinding pre-existing axes.
it also treats activists as a disposable resource when in reality people are a lot more motivated to campaign for candidates that meet their personal values than re-elect caroline flint so she can vote for a tory hard brexit anyway.
why labour and the people's vote campaign lost so spectacularly will be litigated for a long time to come and most analyses so far (including my own) are superficial and primarily about grinding pre-existing axes.
"Who pays attention to manifestos?"
Tories announce a pothole manifesto.
"Omg the Tories really care about us, Brexit will be done and we'll fix potholes. Britain will be made great again."
The moment they went to supporting a 2nd ref the Lib Dems immediately switched to supporting Revoke outright. I don't have the stats to hand, but iirc Remain voters did end up mostly (not entirely, there were a few seats with extremely annoying Lab/LD splits of the remain vote where combined they have enough to beat the Tory candidate) voting as they should have (tactically to beat the Tories), the problem was Labour leave votes going Tory and Brexit party
You're right about England though. And I don't know what to do about it. I don't think there is a policy Labour could have done this election to change things while Brexit was still an unresolved issue.
You can't though. Labour lost too many votes because they weren't pro-leave enough, you can see this by opinion polling dropping loads for Labour with the votes on May's and Johnson's deals being blocked. And if Labour had been a pro-leave party, their supporters would have left on a massive scale, and the Lib Dems would have taken a load of their seats in the major cities.
That is the policy that pissed off the least amount of people, come down stronger either way and they lose loads more. Labour couldn't win here with a strong statement and the way the way their supporters are distributed in FPTP
the idea that this election was unwinnable due to a variable that corbyn was entirely able to control is very silly. there was nothing stopping him agreeing to support the passing of a basic withdrawal agreement to respect the result of the referendum and campaigning to later negotiate a closer future agreement. there was nothing actually wrong with may's deal.
they chose to not to do that and instead play twelve dimensional chess to derail may's plan through parliament because they thought undermining the government over brexit would make them unpopular and hand labour power.... and it blew up in their faces.
it alienated leave voters by refusing to honour their vote, it eroded trust in the potential of any serious radical change by creating gridlock, trashed corbyn's reputation for integrity by playing both sides for cynical political gain, and the rhetorical vacuum allowed for the growth of destructive extremist groups like the people's vote campaign to rot away labour's core support.
i hate all the remainiacs who show zero contrition and act like they were vindicated by the result despite them gambling away a softer brexit on a reckless double or nothing gamble to overturn a nationwide democratic vote...it was a pure indulgence and they've screwed a lot of people's lives, but corbyn fucked them over with his incompetence too.
they chose to not to do that and instead play twelve dimensional chess to derail may's plan through parliament because they thought undermining the government over brexit would make them unpopular and hand labour power.... and it blew up in their faces.
it alienated leave voters by refusing to honour their vote, it eroded trust in the potential of any serious radical change by creating gridlock, trashed corbyn's reputation for integrity by playing both sides for cynical political gain, and the rhetorical vacuum allowed for the growth of destructive extremist groups like the people's vote campaign to rot away labour's core support.
i hate all the remainiacs who show zero contrition and act like they were vindicated by the result despite them gambling away a softer brexit on a reckless double or nothing gamble to overturn a nationwide democratic vote...it was a pure indulgence and they've screwed a lot of people's lives, but corbyn fucked them over with his incompetence too.
So this thread was made in bad faith. Thanks for clearing that up.
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They weren't actually trying to play to win (in this case, maximize what was possible because I don't think they could win this one) is the problem.
"Bad Faith" does not mean "Says critical things about people I like."
The Lib Dems are the biggest joke of all. For sane people in England, the only silver lining of this election was seeing Jo Swinson chucked out.
As for what you'll have to do, first and foremost embrace yourself to withstand a 10 year Tory Government. Other than that fight like a motherfucker to shift England to something like Scotland where to publicly admit to voting Tory has you mocked for being an inhumane piece of shit. It's on the Conservative party to show they are a reasonable political option for normal people to vote for, not on the people calling them what they are to calm down and listen to both sides.
It became a cultural thing up here to ridicule anyone willing to vote for the party Thatcher represented, and that has served us well. No Tory majority since 1955.
I have zero interest entertaining changing the way I speak about the Tory party as it is and the people that vote for it. Cry me a river if that offends you. Maybe a lot of English people need to have a bigger set of balls and not come across like cowards holding up their empty bowl right now and saying "More please mister".
But instead I look forward to "Labour needs its Joe Biden!" being a narrative I hear more and more in the months to come. By Joe Biden I guess I really mean Tony Blair or something, excuse my mistake, picking out these rich white Centrist men can get confusing when they are basically all the same.
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"There was nothing actually wrong with may's deal" come on mate, it was totally unacceptable to both remain and leave supporters, that's why it lost so badly in parliament.
Voting it through would have been much better than what we will get with Johnson now, but Labour couldn't have supported that deal and retained their membership and the support of the major cities.
It's a lot easier to say this with the benefit of hindsight than what was going on at the time.
Labour should never have gone along with the election. If you're going to run an election basically on Brexit it should have been a referendum. Let the Government stagger along with their minority, if they eventually got their bill through then fine, let them own it for a couple of years. Labour were arrogant, head in the clouds.
None of that has anything to do with the proper provisioning of tangible party resources during an election, which this plan shows an incredible failure of.
Iirc it didn't matter by the point the election was voted on. There were not the numbers in opposition to prevent it. Whether Labour had voted against it or not, the other opposition parties plus tories would have got it through regardless.
it didn't pass because tory rebels wanted to replace may with a harder leaver (they succeeded) - if the last few months have shown us anything it's that their concern for Northern Ireland was wholly fake - and labour wanted the government to lose for political gain (nothing in may's deal precluded passing labour's customs union policy in a future arrangement)
it's not arguing with hindsight at all, any brexit deal being unacceptable to members and voters in cities was a state of affairs created by labour's messaging on brexit. back in 2017 labour won those voters on a platform to leave the eu & the idea of overturning the result was an obscure one from an obscure party with a tiny vote share. labour created their own cule-de-sac while the ERG turned the problem of brexit into a victory.
Citation needed. Pre-election polling showed abstention or pro-leave would actually piss off the most amount of people and post-election surveys show Labour did worse at retaining both Remainers and Leavers from 2017 than the Tories.
Because they're racist. Is this really that hard for you to work out or are you intentionally dodging it. There were two options. One where things actually stand a chance of improving, the other where they really fucking hate foreign people and love tax cuts for the rich. Campaigning on brexit, which is also based on racism. People swung to vote for that? They're racist. It ain't rocket science. It's very easy to see what the motivating factor for the tory victory actually is and this idea that it couldnt possibly have been a factor is downright ignorant.
And yet you still hear from Lexit-y types that literally just changing Labour's Brexit policy would have delivered a great big stonking majority.
They were targeting leave seats. They were trying to win over the racists that had a party that backs leave to vote for. Yeah, voters are shit, but there comes a time where you also have to recognize mistakes made.
Corbyn is gone, there is supposedly the biggest mistake away. Yet now we're getting told Labour are going to try and seek the glorious Tony Blair days again and in the north, not that it really matters, Scottish Labour have decided their ongoing plans are great (be Tory lite in Scotland) and they'll continue.
It's almost as if it won't really end up anything to do with Corbyn, overall, but it's Labour Centrism and Red Tories just wanting the party back to chase the crumbs of Conservative England. Maybe Chuka will come back now.
Unlike Americans wanting Hillary Clinton back, I'll never ask for Corbyn back, but accepting Labour becoming a poundland Tory party now? Nah, until Scotland gets independence I ain't chilling and waving that on. Once we are independent, do what you want, if that future is fighting amongst the pig shit for Tory scraps so be it.
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This particular article has nothing to do with putting in a Tony Blair, but the leadership decisions. Like, let me put it this way, Hillary made more than one mistake but her biggest weight during 2016 was the fact that she had low approval going into the election because of decades of attacks. Doesn't mean you should ignore the other mistakes.
This article like most being critical of Labour, for whatever truths there are, will largely be used by the English electorate, the papers and many already on Era to discuss "both sides" and why those who just voted for the Tories didn't know any better and have never to be called pieces of shit for what they just unleashed on the UK.
Corbyn is a far better person than Hillary Clinton anyway 🤷♂️ We'll see how many book tours Corbyn now does, because when your mask slips about trying to work for the people the next best move is just to milk them for money. Right?
I mean that's what big Tony did. After leaving the ME in waste it's off for speaking tours and books. What a man.
So... there should be no examination of the strategies employed by Labour because you're afraid of people using it to push a point? It's not like the article is making shit up here.
And, yes, voters are shit, believe me I know.
Corbyn, with his extremely low favorables, being PM was part of the strategy. Like, reverse this for someone you're willing to attack. Hillary was a bad candidate, shouldn't have been run. Because that's true let's ignore the fact that she spent massive money in the wrong states while ignoring ones integral to the election.
This article does not explain 2017 results. A less convoluted explanation is that Jeremy shouldn't have changed his position on Brexit.
I never thought Labour would win no matter what they did. England is too racist and riddled with classism to ever vote for a Labour majority as things stand. Why do you think I voted YES for indyref in 2014? Sensible people have known England is a basketcase for years.
To an extent for the failings Labour made at best it would have been a smaller Conservative majority. 2017 was a bit of a black eye for May, but even Tories hated her. Bring back a posh sounding white man and all is good. Go Boris, slay King.
Corbyn is the first Labour leader I felt I could vote for, but that was based on thinking he does actually care enough about the poor, sick and disenfranchised and the Labour manifesto was good.
But then again I'm not a fucking sociopath and things like that matter more to me than how Labour leaders eat bacon sandwiches or whether they were educated at Oxford.
I mean, accounting for how idiotic and gossipy the electorate is is kinda something that should be done, and the best part about that is what the ideology of the person on top is doesn't really matter so long as they play the stupid gossip game and target the right areas.
Anyway, there was a chance for labour to at least maintain their seats or get another hung parliament. What happened was the worst possible result.
I think Bernie is still the best hope for this country. I think he's positioned well and will win it all in the end.
The USA has only had a Centrist/Right Wing Democratic Party for so long. It's great to see bad ideas lose out in the end.
People like AOC and Bernie are the future of the party and they represent what young people who grew up in perpetual war, mass privatization of social safety nets, and economic devastation truly believe in.
The people who believe in the Third Way Political movement were either closet Republicans or were sheltered from the true cost of 40 years of American political thought.
I also think it's weird to compare Corbynism to Bernie's movement when so much of the UK's electoral results are tied into BREXIT.
Sanders is the candidate for the future of the Democratic Party and when he is gone someone else will replace him with similar and maybe even more extreme beliefs. The only ways are dead and you can cling onto Technocratic half-measures and free market pseudo-science or you can actually move to a candidate who wants to bring power to fixing the most pressing issues facing our Democracy.
I think it's pretty clear Sanders is our last hope in 2020 and I do not believe there is time to wait for another cycle to start this process of reform. You can't just keep punting the ball and playing for time when people are dying on the street and people are living without just and fair healthcare in this country. Things are breaking now even with the economy booming. It will only get worse unless things change.
I'm excited for once, because I honestly feel Sanders is going to win the nomination and the Presidency. I hope you can come aboard when we have the power to ensure Sanders wins over Biden and then wins over Trump.
The USA has only had a Centrist/Right Wing Democratic Party for so long. It's great to see bad ideas lose out in the end.
People like AOC and Bernie are the future of the party and they represent what young people who grew up in perpetual war, mass privatization of social safety nets, and economic devastation truly believe in.
The people who believe in the Third Way Political movement were either closet Republicans or were sheltered from the true cost of 40 years of American political thought.
I also think it's weird to compare Corbynism to Bernie's movement when so much of the UK's electoral results are tied into BREXIT.
Sanders is the candidate for the future of the Democratic Party and when he is gone someone else will replace him with similar and maybe even more extreme beliefs. The only ways are dead and you can cling onto Technocratic half-measures and free market pseudo-science or you can actually move to a candidate who wants to bring power to fixing the most pressing issues facing our Democracy.
I think it's pretty clear Sanders is our last hope in 2020 and I do not believe there is time to wait for another cycle to start this process of reform. You can't just keep punting the ball and playing for time when people are dying on the street and people are living without just and fair healthcare in this country. Things are breaking now even with the economy booming. It will only get worse unless things change.
I'm excited for once, because I honestly feel Sanders is going to win the nomination and the Presidency. I hope you can come aboard when we have the power to ensure Sanders wins over Biden and then wins over Trump.
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Corbyn was far more unpopular in 2019 than in 2017. By like 30% or something. He went from a little less popular than may to "Makes Hilary look like Obama" territory.
Hillary 16/Corbyn 17 results had a lot of similarities- both weren't popular, gained seats in the main electoral body (House of Reps/Parliament). Hillary stepped away while Corbyn dug in taking the increase as a win, even though a lot of Labour's gains were in upper-income metropolitan areas that were very much not "Corbyn Country".
Lesson: If an unpopular leader loses a general election, you probably want to swap to a new candidate before the next election.
Can you explain to me how the SNP win elections in Scotland?
Brexit was never going to allow it. The English majority are in love with Brexit. Add to that even the BBC running Communism propaganda and thinking Labour could have managed a hung parliament was simply dumb.
People get more Tory the older they'd get. Most of my 30+ friends were labour but have voted Tory in the last two. The older tories will be replaced by those getting older.
I mean, they got those seats during Brexit so I'm not very convinced of that. The graphic several posts up makes it very clear that their both-sides stance on Brexit didn't help them. Tories managed to keep a similar percentage of remainers as Labour was able to keep leavers despite a hard stance, but Labour bled the remain vote.
Is your thesis basically that no matter if Corbyn had not run, they had had a better strategy etc. they would've lost the same amount of seats?
Because you had Labour remain voters on BBCQT screaming about "the will of the people" and how it was a democratic outrage Corbyn wasn't swinging his dick around a neon "We voted Leave" light.
England is a Brexit country and even remain voters finally caved in to the propaganda that says democracy actually means you can't change your mind. We have those people in Scotland too. Democracy stopped in 2014 in Scotland for many here as well.
Direction and policy do not get through to the public. That should be very clear by now. They have no bearing whatsoever on election results.