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Orayn

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,936
The U.S. government's plan to vaccinate hundreds of millions of Americans against the coronavirus, potentially save hundreds of thousands of lives and return the country to normalcy may hinge on the effectiveness of an index card.

Two separate vaccines due to be released from pharmaceutical firm Pfizer and biotech Moderna appear to be more than 90% effective in preventing COVID-19. Critically, however, that's only after people receive two doses taken 21 days apart for Pfizer's vaccine and 28 days apart for Moderna's remedy.

The upshot: A major logistical challenge involved in inoculating the bulk of the U.S. population will be to ensure that people return for their second shot. The federal government's solution: A 4-by-6 index card.

Millions of the cards will be shipped with the vaccine kits sent to hospitals and other distribution centers. Health care providers will fill out the card with "accurate vaccine information," including a written reminder of the patient's appointment for a second dose. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says providers should encourage patients with smartphones to take a picture of the card in case it gets lost.

But with just a few weeks before the first COVID-19 vaccine becomes available, a number of experts told CBS MoneyWatch they are concerned that the CDC's measures to ensure people return for a second dose could prove inadequate.

"I hope the CDC has something else planned," said Mark Fendrick, a medical school professor at the University of Michigan. "But I don't know of anything other than the index card."

Nightmare scenario: Mutation

The consequences of people skipping a second vaccine dose could be significant. Although the coronavirus is unlikely to become vaccine-resistant, that could change if millions of individuals only get one dose of a vaccine that requires two treatments, said biologist David Kennedy, who studies viruses at Penn State University and co-authored a recent paper urging drug makers to look for signs of mutation in the coronavirus.

The problem, according to Kennedy: If someone who has had only a single dose is exposed to the virus, their immune system might not be able to kill it off. That could allow the virus to develop a response to the limited immunity provided by that one dose.

"In imperfect vaccines, that's where we see resistance pop-up," Kennedy said. "The more individuals who have one dose of these vaccines, the more concerned I would be."

www.cbsnews.com

Second shot no-shows could undermine COVID-19 vaccination efforts

Experts say a vaccine-resistant mutation is more likely if millions of Americans end up getting only one dose.

Over/under on America whiffing this one in a way that's only possible here, like we're doing in every other aspect of our response to covid?
 
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Cort

Member
Nov 4, 2017
4,352
Do patients normally fuck up shingrix? I'd imagine there are systems in place that notify the patient that the second shot is due.
 

Poltergust

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,820
Orlando, FL
www.cbsnews.com

Second shot no-shows could undermine COVID-19 vaccination efforts

Experts say a vaccine-resistant mutation is more likely if millions of Americans end up getting only one dose.

Over/under on America whiffing this one in a way that's only possible here, like we're doing in every other aspects of our response to covid?
By the time the vaccine will be getting distributed to the majority of the population, we'll have Biden as POTUS who, along with medical experts, will likely be constantly drilling into our heads the proper way to take the vaccine.

And the first wave of doses, while being done under Trump, is primarily going to healthcare workers and such who should know better.

So I think this should be mostly fine?
 

Damaniel

The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
6,535
Portland, OR
Do patients normally fuck up shingrix? I'd imagine there are systems in place that notify the patient that the second shot is due.

It's more of a (personal) logistics issue - can I arrange transportation to the doctor's office? Can I even get an appointment? Can I get time off of work exactly 21 days after the first shot? Can I arrange a babysitter for the kids?

Many people will be able to get both shots without much issue, but there are also many things that could prevent someone from doing so.
 

Seesaw15

Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,809
By the time the vaccine will be getting distributed to the majority of the population, we'll have Biden as POTUS who, along with medical experts, will likely be constantly drilling into our heads the proper way to take the vaccine.

And the first wave of doses, while being done under Trump, is primarily going to healthcare workers and such who should know better.

So I think this should be mostly fine?
There's like 70 + million people who won't listen to Biden and don't believe in science. Unless there's some wide spread enforcement I'd be surprised if they even took the first shot tbh.
 

RROCKMAN

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
10,818
Oh Jesus christ

I would almost prefer they wait until they can do it in one dose or keep them closer together than to do this. I have zero confidence in the American public to actually pay attention for this
 

DrForester

Mod of the Year 2006
Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,646
I feel like the giant chunk of the population that doesn't get vaccinated will be the bigger problem than people not showing up for the 2nd shot.
 

Sulik2

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
8,168
Peoples fear and distrust of vaccines is really gonna fuck us all. I had some concerns about the pace these were developed, but those have been laid to rest. I'll be getting mine ASAP, but there are 10s of millions of people brainwashed by the facebook and fox news media cycle that are gonna think this vaccine is pointless cause covid is just the flu and is going to mutate yearly so getting a vaccine is useless.
 

Aaronrules380

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
22,429
I mean I think a big way of addressing this is making it clear up front before the shot is even given and making concrete plans at that time for the second shot before being allowed to get the first one
 

AndyD

Mambo Number PS5
Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,602
Nashville
Do patients normally fuck up shingrix? I'd imagine there are systems in place that notify the patient that the second shot is due.
Yes. Non completion of a series is a huge deal even with normal shots. It's why drastic measures like "can't enroll your kids in school until they have completed all shots" are necessary. With Covid I'd say businesses should simply say "no flying" or "no staying at our resort" unless you complete a run and provide verification.
 

killerrin

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,237
Toronto
So what they're saying is.... We're fucked.

Man, what a genius idea. An index card with a date and time on it. People surely wont fuck that up. I'm sure employers will get riiiiiight on allowing people to skip work for the day. And I'm absolutely certain they'll pay them for the time they were out getting said shot over those two days of the month they get it.
 

Hound

Member
Jul 6, 2019
1,827
Can't wait for all the crybabies with mild side effects deciding that they're not going in for round 2.
 

Aztechnology

Community Resettler
Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
14,134
By the time the vaccine will be getting distributed to the majority of the population, we'll have Biden as POTUS who, along with medical experts, will likely be constantly drilling into our heads the proper way to take the vaccine.

And the first wave of doses, while being done under Trump, is primarily going to healthcare workers and such who should know better.

So I think this should be mostly fine?
Looooooooool.

Shoot me now. Do you live in the U.S?
 
Oct 27, 2017
45,036
Seattle
Yes. Non completion of a series is a huge deal even with normal shots. It's why drastic measures like "can't enroll your kids in school until they have completed all shots" are necessary. With Covid I'd say businesses should simply say "no flying" or "no staying at our resort" unless you complete a run and provide verification.


No flying, No concerts, No movies, Nothing.
 

Lump

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,973
Lie after the first shot and tell patients that they'll get Super COVID if they don't get their second shot.
 

kmfdmpig

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
19,350
In another vaccine thread you were accused of doomposting and now you've made this thread? Yes, some will mess up and take one dose instead of two. The vaccine is still going to help quite a bit. I don't think there's any real way to say that this is going to make things worse particularly as the people who would half-ass it are unlikely to take the first dose anyway (at least in the near term).
 

CloseTalker

Member
Oct 25, 2017
30,569
I'm not terribly worried about this. Literally everyone with a platform will be drilling the proper instructions into you. Anyone who is dumb enough to only get half the shots is just as likely to not get the first one at all.
 

Nude_Tayne

Member
Jan 8, 2018
3,666
earth
When I first read about this vaccine I did not like the two-dose nature of it one bit. This is going to be a logistical nightmare.
 

MasterChumly

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,895
I'm also concerned that people are going to get the first shot and think they are in the clear the following weekend. COVID is so fucking rampant that people will be getting the shot and catching COVID still at the same time.
 

wenis

Member
Oct 25, 2017
16,105
By the time the vaccine will be getting distributed to the majority of the population, we'll have Biden as POTUS who, along with medical experts, will likely be constantly drilling into our heads the proper way to take the vaccine.

And the first wave of doses, while being done under Trump, is primarily going to healthcare workers and such who should know better.

So I think this should be mostly fine?
You've got too much faith in health care professionals that are PROFESSIONAL and arent also nutters.
 

kmfdmpig

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
19,350
When I first read about this vaccine I did not like the two-dose nature of it one bit. This is going to be a logistical nightmare.
The Oxford team botched their data collection/analysis so badly that it's hard to tell what their data actually shows, but if their solution is similar than one dose still offers some immunity, so if that's the case for Pfizer and Moderna as well then I don't think it'll be anywhere near the problem that people worry it might be.
 

Keywork

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,125
I also wonder if people will even be able to take time off to go and get vaccinated in the first place? We already hear from people how they won't go to the doctor because it threatens their jobs. Some shitty managers out there will probably say one shot is enough.
 

wolfshirt

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,160
Los Angeles
This is behavioral economics issue.

If you know humans will predictably forget their second dose, you have to construct a system that makes as easy as possible to follow-up: phone call, text message, maybe even a digital alarm that arrives with the vaccine.
 
Oct 27, 2017
42,700
It's more of a (personal) logistics issue - can I arrange transportation to the doctor's office? Can I even get an appointment? Can I get time off of work exactly 21 days after the first shot? Can I arrange a babysitter for the kids?

Many people will be able to get both shots without much issue, but there are also many things that could prevent someone from doing so.
Well I'm assuming you aren't going to take 1 day off if you can't take both off
 
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Orayn

Orayn

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,936
This is behavioral economics issue.

If you know humans will predictably forget their second dose, you have to construct a system that makes as easy as possible to follow-up: phone call, text message, maybe even a digital alarm that arrives with the vaccine.
We do that now with all kinds of medical follow-ups and people are still pretty crummy at responding for a variety of reasons. Hopefully the seriousness of covid would motivate them to stick with it, but you've also got to consider people working jobs with unpredictable and inflexible schedules, people with limited transportation options, kids who would need to be watched, etc.

thanks for always putting in the effort to seek out the nightmare scenario orayn.

you're nothing if not dependable.

You're welcome, the headline was making the rounds on Twitter accompanied by the Ralph Wiggum "I'm in danger" meme.
 

viandante

Member
Apr 24, 2020
3,097
thanks for always putting in the effort to seek out the nightmare scenario orayn.

you're nothing if not dependable.
 

yyr

Member
Nov 14, 2017
3,462
White Plains, NY
There's like 70 + million people who won't listen to Biden and don't believe in science. Unless there's some wide spread enforcement I'd be surprised if they even took the first shot tbh.

I'm not usually one to say things like this, but...

Natural selection.

If we educate everyone in America, and provide them a means to save their lives, but someone makes a conscious choice to refuse it, and dies as a result...then we did all we could to try to help them. What else can we do? They exercised their personal freedom.

As far as the actual topic, I just hope folks that got one dose will get the second.
 
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Orayn

Orayn

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,936
I'm not usually one to say things like this, but...

Natural selection.

If we educate everyone in America, and provide them a means to save their lives, but someone makes a conscious choice to refuse it, and dies as a result...then we did all we could to try to help them. What else can we do? They exercised their personal freedom.
Not a good response for a variety reasons. Those people aren't just hurting themselves, they're endangering others because the vaccine isn't 100% effective and not everyone can get vaccinated.

Also the idea of a vaccine-resistant strain is a nightmare. Not overly likely to happen, but it's one of the worst possible outcomes.
 

yyr

Member
Nov 14, 2017
3,462
White Plains, NY
Not a good response for a variety reasons. Those people aren't just hurting themselves, they're endangering others because the vaccine isn't 100% effective and not everyone can get vaccinated.

Also the idea of a vaccine-resistant strain is a nightmare. Not overly likely to happen, but it's one of the worst possible outcomes.

I was more referring to the folks who don't take ANY of the vaccines at all. Hopefully most folks will take both shots or none. Also, hopefully the anti-vaxxers will either be spread out enough to not affect herd immunity, or concentrated enough that we can just avoid their areas.
 

AndyD

Mambo Number PS5
Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,602
Nashville
I was more referring to the folks who don't take ANY of the vaccines at all. Hopefully most folks will take both shots or none. Also, hopefully the anti-vaxxers will either be spread out enough to not affect herd immunity, or concentrated enough that we can just avoid their areas.
Yea, a lot of people will have to take a vaccine to keep their job and somewaht function in society, regardless of political orientation. I fully expect travel, guest services, essential workers, school, healthcare, child care and elder care workers and fields to require it as a baseline of employment. No business wants to be the one that is seen as spreading the virus when customers can easily go to the hotel across the street or whatnot.
 

Z Y

Member
Oct 27, 2017
905
World: We have a vaccine!!

Era: ..Yea but what if people don't take it correctly?
 

shinobi602

Verified
Oct 24, 2017
8,329
I have to imagine a majority of people who willingly want to get vaccinated will be eager and attentive enough to remember that second dose.
 

AndreGX

GameXplain
Verified
Oct 24, 2017
1,815
San Francisco
Treat it like Aldi shopping carts: Require a deposit that you only get back when you return for a second shot (unless financial hardship makes that impossible)
 

Eoin

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,103
Treat it like Aldi shopping carts: Require a deposit that you only get back when you return for a second shot (unless financial hardship makes that impossible)
As well as people being unable to pay, that would also result in some people using it as an excuse to push themselves away from the vaccination processs.

You would be better off just giving people US$1000 to take the vaccine, payable only on the second shot, and decreasing by US$200 for each day it took after the scheduled appointment.
 

AndreGX

GameXplain
Verified
Oct 24, 2017
1,815
San Francisco
As well as people being unable to pay, that would also result in some people using it as an excuse to push themselves away from the vaccination processs.

You would be better off just giving people US$1000 to take the vaccine, payable only on the second shot, and decreasing by US$200 for each day it took after the scheduled appointment.

Sure, whatever it takes is more the point. So let's do that
 

VariantX

Member
Oct 25, 2017
16,880
Columbia, SC
It's more of a (personal) logistics issue - can I arrange transportation to the doctor's office? Can I even get an appointment? Can I get time off of work exactly 21 days after the first shot? Can I arrange a babysitter for the kids?

Many people will be able to get both shots without much issue, but there are also many things that could prevent someone from doing so.

Yeah. I can easily see circumstances getting in the way of people getting that second shot in timely manner. Its sometimes hard as fuck to get time off or even have your hours re-arranged just to give you enough time to keep that appointment. And thats even with you having sick days and PTO available. Its going to be a a shit show for some retail workers since retail loves to cut hours and positions to maximize profits while the store is barely held together with duck tape and string. It would be a good thing for these businesses to arrange something so their front line workers can get the vaccines on the job at least.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,244
NYC
As well as people being unable to pay, that would also result in some people using it as an excuse to push themselves away from the vaccination processs.

You would be better off just giving people US$1000 to take the vaccine, payable only on the second shot, and decreasing by US$200 for each day it took after the scheduled appointment.

then the nutters will really think you're trying to mind control them.
 

Shodan14

Banned
Oct 30, 2017
9,410
Yes. Non completion of a series is a huge deal even with normal shots. It's why drastic measures like "can't enroll your kids in school until they have completed all shots" are necessary. With Covid I'd say businesses should simply say "no flying" or "no staying at our resort" unless you complete a run and provide verification.
Lol good luck having universal credible proof without a unified government database for that.