That's not a double standard; just a regular standard for how defensive alliances work.
Literally every country abides by this "fine print" (lol) rule about not directly attacking nuclear powers, not just the US.
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That's not a double standard; just a regular standard for how defensive alliances work.
Literally every country abides by this "fine print" (lol) rule about not directly attacking nuclear powers, not just the US.
Please show me the polish source that says
"Yes, we are sending MIGs"
They never said that.
They pointed out that polish MIGs have the polish national insignia and are staying in Poland to defend Poland.
It was all US talk, and when they had the chance to send the MIGs the Pentagon said "Yeah, lets not do that"
Look, I hate what is going on over there. HATE IT.
But Zalensky knows damn well what happens if there is intervention from any Nato nations.
Things will escalate to a degree that no one wants to see.
Remember this when you think about what Putin will or won't do.. NOTHING is more dangerous than a man with nothing to lose.
It's the saddest thing about those whole situation. We want to help, we want to drive the Russian's out, but we can't unless Putin attacks nato.
One thing's for sure... after this whole ordeal, i really have a LOT more sympathy for any country that wants to procure nukes. In this fucked up world, it really seems to be the ONLY thing to guarantee you will not be shamelessly invaded by a superpower for whatever motive they deem fit one day.
Ironically it looks like the best hope we have as a species for world peace is if EVERY country in the world has nukes!
Ironically it looks like the best hope we have as a species for world peace is if EVERY country in the world has nukes!
No one really knows what the tipping point is. Russia probably wouldn't nuke everyone over a NATO battle in Ukraine that stayed out of Russia itself. MAD goes both ways so Russia would be commiting suicide over the loss of a border country. It's not impossible though, and small tactical nukes used on military targets could lead to the final brink.
On a related note, this crisis has made me feel even stronger about the Iran nuclear situation. The world cannot allow that to happen, even if it requires direct intervention of some sort. Russia has shown the practical power of nuclear sabre rattling.
If every country had nukes that would be one thing, but keep in mind that the only reason Russia is able to wage this war is because of their nukes. Aggressor countries can use nuclear deterence in an offensive way against their non-nuclear neighbours.
and so do they. There is a big difference between thousands of lives being lost and millions.
You don't call bluffs when dealing with nuclear weapons.
Nobody's saying that. But there is a serious risk and that's why you're careful.
Putin and his administration have sunk the Russian economy for decades to come for very little potential gains (territorial or otherwise). It's hard to treat them as rational agents anymore and extreme caution is necessary.
They have nukes. It's all there is to it. If they didnt then NATO would get involved and destroy the russian army in a heartbeat. Actually they wouldnt because putin would know that they could and not even invade in the first place.
NATO interfering in Ukrania will not trigger MAD. This is like the last measure for Putin if for some reason Russia gets invaded and there are no other tools available except trigger the "red" button.
Things will definitely escalate, which is definitely worrying, but there are a lot of options before a nuke is actually considered
Things will definitely escalate, which is definitely worrying, but there are a lot of options before a nuke is actually considered
I dunno, this sounds eerily similar to the "if everyone had a gun there would be no gun violence" rhetoric.
You seem awfully calm about mutually assured destruction.
What you are talking about is the end of humanity as we know it. Millions dead.
The moment that any sort of attack is launched towards Russia via Nato, a button is getting pressed or an order issued for a tactical nuke in a smaller city in Europe. This sets off a domino effect from 20 other nations to retaliate.
The REAL way to solve this is to be patient and watch the Russian economy completely collapse. They will eat themselves from within.
It takes money to fight wars. A LOT of it, and they had most of it locked down.
It won't take long for the people to start revolting against the government when they are freezing and starving.
It will trigger a hyper inflation there that hasn't been seen since Germany after World War 1.
Oligarchs will be putting massive pressure on Putin.
Hopefully this will lead to the ousting of Putin in one form or another.
It's slow, it's cruel.. but it will work.
The thing is, Zalensky is probably a "man with nothing to lose". If his forces cannot hold, he's done for...
So the rough weather in Ukraine is also affecting the Black Sea, so it looks improbable the Russian's would try to do an amphibious landing in poor weather. If there is a threat of an amphibious landing, it looks like it won't happen for several more days until weather gets better. We also have no idea if those landing ships still have large numbers of troops on them or already offloaded them back in Crimea since we are approaching the end of week 2.
My assumption has always been that any landings would have taken place only if Plan A originally went forward without a hitch (Ukrainian government collapses and there's no organised resistance). Any seriously opposed landing would probably be a mess.
And NATO/the developed world is honestly doing a lot. The sanctions are incredibly aggressive and destructive. The weapons we're giving the Ukrainians are extremely lethal and effective. What we are doing now is already legitimately quite provocative.
Anyway, I thought this Twitter thread about the Russian political economy favoring industries based on simple resource extraction because of their mafia-like leadership was interesting.
Difference is firing a gun doesn't include a very high probability that the gun also blows up and kills everyone you love.
MAD exists as a deterrent. If everyone had a gun that guaranteed if you shot them they also died and maybe everyone they care about, there probably would be a lot less gun violence.
(I am not advocating everyone should have nukes, just pointing out the difference in thinking between the two)
He's a passionate family man, he's got everything to lose. I hope what will happen is some kind of longer-term ceasefire will be brokered tomorrow. Long term wise it'll be Putin standing down (I hope), he's old and his health has come into question so something is up, and relations with a new regime can lead to some kind of reset
100% agree. I never bought the landing in the Black Sea without being supported by advancing ground forces. Just suicide. However, Russia has done so many mistakes and risky moves I also can't fully discount it.
You don't slap someone as clearly unhinged as Putin around the face when he has recourse to world-ending weapons in the expectation that he's not unhinged enough to use them.
Seriously, mods, can we please do something to stop this never ending cycle of coming back to this same discussion over and over again?! It's literally every 10 pages or so the whole thing starts up again. The massive warning at the bottom clearly isn't doing the job.
I would argue that countries have stepped up. Russia's choice to invade has led to the utter devastation of its economy, which is something that will be felt decades from now. Western aid and intelligence have helped allow Ukrainians to defend their land much more effectively.
There's a wide gulf between doing nothing and directly attacking. Directly attacking, whether you agree with it or not, is widely seen as a red line that creates dramatically more risk for the entire world.
Are you sure? I don't recall any security guarantees from that nuclear deal, other than a pledge not to attack which Russia has broken. And they are not part of NATO.
The moment NATO and Russia get into conflict, it will be nukes launched back and forth, and within days 100s of millions will have died, and the subsequent radiation fallout, nuclear winter and famine will likely wipe most of the rest of the earth's population out over the following years.
Everyone is trying to not gamble with humanity's future here.
The incessant speculation about nukes in here, despite the giant Staff notice on every page, is beyond tiring.
That's not a double standard. That's a standard.
If a NATO country invokes Article 5, then the rest of the NATO alliance comes to their defence.
That doesn't apply to non-NATO countries... because they are not part of NATO.
Ukraine "decided to fight back" because they are a sovereign nation being invaded by a belligerent neighbour without provocation.
Stop minimising their agency.
That's not a double standard. That's a standard.
If a NATO country invokes Article 5, then the rest of the NATO alliance comes to their defence.
That doesn't apply to non-NATO countries... because they are not part of NATO.
Ukraine "decided to fight back" because they are a sovereign nation being invaded by a belligerent neighbour without provocation.
Stop minimising their agency.
Here goes the nuke/MAD/Red button talk again, sigh. Every two or three pages now at this point, like a clockwork...
At this point I think the Mods should add an info disclaimer to the staff post (Ukraine not in NATO, NATO only a defensive alliance, all important NATO decision makers already said there won't be boots on the ground or a No-Fly Zone) and ban any discussion along the lines of "we need No Fly Zone or direct NATO intervention!", because it's those posts that trigger the same discussion over and over and over again in violation of the staff notice.
At this point I think the Mods should add an info disclaimer to the staff post (Ukraine not in NATO, NATO only a defensive alliance, all important NATO decision makers already said there won't be boots on the ground or a No-Fly Zone) and ban any discussion along the lines of "we need No Fly Zone or direct NATO intervention!", because it's those posts that trigger the same discussion over and over and over again in violation of the staff notice.
Not to mention Odessa's harbour (and possibly the surrounding coast line) seems to be mined, and Turkey has been blocking any additional Russian ships trying to reinforce the Black Sea fleet (4 confirmed cases at this point + another 12+ ships now being forced to twiddle their thumbs along the Syrian coast line, AFAIR).
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The first Iraq war was sold based upon a bunch of lies to the public, so not a great launching off point.
A large portion of the world is facing this bully, they just aren't doing it with direct military action. These sanctions are devastating, and will diminish Putin's ability to wage war. Similarly, the weapons being provided to Ukraine are having a significant impact on Russia's military. As things stand it will probably take a decade or more to rebuild the Russian military and economy, and that's if the sanctions were lifted tomorrow.
Make no mistake. NATO, the West, and an alliance of countries around the world are deeply involved in this war. War is being waged against Russia: economically, and it's having an impact on the economies of the countries involved. Direct military action is the redline for uncontrolled escalation, just as it was during the Cold War.
It's not fear mongering to point out why NATO hasn't put boots on the ground. It's literally one of the main reasons why. That doesn't mean we are close to nuclear war or that anything involving nukes will happen.
OK, so we then need to accept that Putin and Russia are allowed to annex where ever they like and nobody will ever step in to stop them.
All this handwringing of "We'd love to, but it's not us being invaded and nukes" will repeat when they inevitably eventually go for a NATO country if the Ukranians don't repel them through some miracle. It's the same thing that happened going in to WW2, where there were existing defense agreements that went effectively ignored until the enemy armies came knocking directly on France/UKs doorstep, but instead put a bunch of sanctions on the invaders and hoped that was enough.
That unfortunate saying about history rhyming with itself keeps being accurate.
Iraq didn't have a nuclear weapon, which is why we felt confident that we could go and kick their shit in with relatively minimal casualties. Yes, you better believe that if Saddam Hussein had access to nuclear weapons with the capability to strike the US we probably would be doing the same thing we're doing with Ukraine. Sanctions, and arming the resistance.
That's literally the more rational option than playing tough guy with nuclear warfare.
You say that as though we're dealing with a rational actor. For years, all signs have pointed to Putin becoming more and more paranoid and almost cartoonishly megalomaniacal. Meanwhile he's been surrounded by yes men who either cater to his every whim, or mysteriously trip out a window. While it's true that there is a nuclear chain of command safeguard similar to our own in Russia, I wouldn't be shocked if Putin has been neutering it, with the approval of everyone involved. Yes, we're also a nuclear power, but is it a win to crater Russia if some our own cities are also gone?
This is a great post and I'd far prefer this and regular updates vs. endlessly spinning in circles about nukes and a NFZ.
All this ukraine joining NATO talk is kinda irrelevant when the real aim of ukraine is joining the EU and russian nr. 1 goal is to prevent ukraine from joining the EU.
I understand this is probably hard to grasp for americans but zelensky already came out saying they'd be willing to discuss neutrality from NATO so the question becomes kinda irrelevant.
I understand this is probably hard to grasp for americans but zelensky already came out saying they'd be willing to discuss neutrality from NATO so the question becomes kinda irrelevant.
Who whould even help that is not NATO? And yeah russia is not the only nuclear power but that doesnt matter. Were not gonna trade a bomb in paris for a bomb in moscow or whatever... like obviously.
A lot of people here are saying/implying that. "Zelensky knows what will happen!". So many posts assume WW3 the second nato and russian forces come into contact and I find that to be a form of FUD posting. No, he and we don't know what will happen specifically beyond the fact that it will continue to escalate a situation that is already escalating (which is scary but with no "known" outcome).
The West will at least need to do more if they don't want to have Ukraine in shambles in the following weeks, at least give them the fucking jets.
Sacrificing Ukraine and playing the long game so sanctions start having effects is a risky move and doesn't guarantee that Russia won't attack other nation too (especially Moldova and Georgia). And yes it will difficulty for Russia to retain Ukraine, but this is something that could take 5-10 years of slaughter
Sacrificing Ukraine and playing the long game so sanctions start having effects is a risky move and doesn't guarantee that Russia won't attack other nation too (especially Moldova and Georgia). And yes it will difficulty for Russia to retain Ukraine, but this is something that could take 5-10 years of slaughter
This is reductive and ahistorical and you have no evidence whatsoever that we would see the same response play out if Russia had invaded a NATO country.
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The nuke talk stops here.
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To this day Putin has insisted that Russian conscripts have never been sent and will never be sent to fight in Ukraine. Well today Russia's Defense Ministry came out and publicly announced that conscripts are being utilized in war in Ukraine. Someone looking to rock the boat?
Short tweet thread about announcement.
Short tweet thread about announcement.