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Can't speak for others, and I definitely don't opine to think I'm super knowledgeable (because I've had questions in this very thread too), but personally speaking I've always been very interested in world history, geopolitics around the world, different cultures, past conflicts, military history and tech so I feel more comfortable talking about these things I guess.
Yup. You can see some of them bugging out after drone strikes abs from post explosions cideos
Obviously not with 200k. Russia has the capability to deploy close to 700k right now. You would need a multiplier of like 30 for a full country occupation, but I don't think they would go that route, Bifurcate Kyiv and points east, force Zelensky to resign.
who takes his places as a rusain puppet? its a literal death sentence
The collateral damage from the war continues. People in the UK are going to have to make do without comparethemeerkat adverts
Comparethemarket pulls meerkat ads from TV news after Ukraine invasion
Site says fictional Russian billionaire Aleksandr Orlov has ‘no association with the current situation’www.theguardian.com
For those not in the UK these are adverts for a price comparison website that has an annoying meerkat talking like a Russian (you know typical stereotyping). IT has been pulled from the airwaves after nearly a bloody decade of "simples" and all it took was a war in Europe to do it.
I guess no more Sergei on my TV from now on. It's like we have been transported back to the 1960s.
It's like the win condition of the Russians hasn't been updated since their initial objectives (force a surrender after seizing limited gains from the south, east, and northwest) failed. Obviously their objective was Kyiv.
As everyone else following this has posited, I'm not really sure what the plan is, let alone what the original strategy was. They can't hold Ukraine.
Great you have the Ukraine. Now enjoy your economy that will never recover.
They don't have the capability to deploy 700k. And even if they did, most of them would be untrained conscripts that would get eaten alive by insurgents.
I think the weeks is based off what would normally happen but I have a feeling Putin isn't that patient. Plus that whole flank is exposed to Western attacks with little ability to interdict with their current posture for a slow encirclement.
That's really not clear at all right now. Also, good luck mobilizing forces when your currency is diving and reports from the front are hitting daily. They may as well exist on paper.
Next several weeks.... 😬
Do we actually have confirmation that it was cluster munitions? I know people have said it, but I haven't really heard high level confirmation of something that would be pretty big news. Are we sure it wasn't just ("just") MLRS rockets. Still a war crime, being aimed at residential centers. But. Just checking.
Deploying 700k to hold Ukraine also isn't viable. The things they are gonna have to do to even take Kyiv or Zelensky is also a nightmare for them. If they kill him he's a martyr and your assuming they can even make him resign if they capture him
Curious how Lviv plays into this if Kyiv is taken. Should be the secondary capitol and have secondary command, and could also present a counterattack with the right equipment, although defending always has the advantage so probably not feasible. Just a mess.
When is an inner circle person to Putin going to say enough of this and take one for the team?
Not only that, if the Russians don't want to totally flatten the city they will have to take it block by block, building by building. It's a city of close to 3 million people, even if you say there are 1 million "fighters" left (only men and some of the women stay to fight in this example) That would be such a nightmare to take over for the Russians. The biggest risk is then surrounding the whole city and just waiting the Ukrainians out but it hopefully doesn't come to that. If they try to take the city militarily without destroying it they will likely fail as long as Ukrainian supply lines can stay somewhat open
Given all the repeated reports of russia not having enough troops to occupy the country, then I could see Putin encircling or taking Kyiv, and taking the South to create the land bridge to Crimea, installing a puppet government if Kyiv is able to be taken (it wouldn't likely last without brutalizing the people, and wouldn't be recognized by anyone, but Putin wouldn't care). Russia then 'withdraws' (but not really) to the breakaway regions, holds onto the land bridge to Crimea, and leaves the puppet stump of Ukraine to rot or brutalize people with russian support.
I'm not sure if it would even be possible to install a puppet government when Ukraine's people obviously wouldn't recognize it at all, but I could see Putin trying to save face by walking away with control of the land bridge to crimea and the 'independent' regions. Not everything he hoped for, but a tier of definite objectives achieved at least that he could try and claim mission accomplished over.
What Russia is to do in the face of seemingly much stronger sanctions than they had anticipated is another question, but guess they will try to go ahead with ignoring them as much as possible until otherwise forced to do something else by internal forces.
Putin needs to be overthrown to end it.
Really, their only way out of this mess is to go all in on killing Zelensky, then withdraw to the east and say "job done, we removed the evil leader and secured the eastern territories"
But that's not going to happen as Putin has now been given a slap in the face, and will lose his shit in an attempt to destroy the entire country
I would love it too. So far though most tagged aren't even acknowleding it, they just keep carrying on as if nothing happened. Many that state in their profile they work for RT haven't even been tagged yet, but they are afraid it is coming so they are telling people to follow them in other places. I won't shit up the thread but if you want to dig into that hole on twitter it won't take you too long to see the name "Tara Reade" come up.
You know, the really long table is to make it more likely that if his generals would miss if they suddenly pulled out a gun to shoot him.
I'm not sure it will be accurate or given to real people. Russia is a dictatorship so data manipulation and concealment is the name of the game.
It's suicide
Not just for you but your family too
I'd imagine if they where internally going to take him out they would need time to escape the country before anybody notices
Either way - avoiding being assassinated, or avoiding infection from Covid/other disease - he wants to stay alive, which *should* be reassuring re: MAD (but still isn't entirely)
While the gif is entertaining, Putin's rise came because of Yeltsin iirc. Like Yeltsin handpicked him.
How far relations have dropped back down.
There's a huge column of troops slowly heading towards Kiev. It looks a lot more deliberate this time and Kiev likely is going to suffer :(.
Even with conventional warfare, I feel like folks forget that Chechnya was a state with slightly over 1M people. Kyiv alone has 3M+ with Ukraine at 40M.
Yes there are videos showing the remains of what is clearly a 9M55k cargo rocket which carries submunitions embedded into an apartment.
Not if they reach the point of no return and collectively call it what it is. One guy who the west wants gone.
It's not guaranteed but the ingredients are there, historically speaking
Killing him is honestly a terrible idea, he's become both a national and global hero in less then a week. Ukraine's people are already fighting viciously, killing there now beloved leader would radicalize them even more against Russia.
Then the next head will want to make an example for treason?
It doesn't have to be one particular person who 'retires' him. And who is to say he doesn't have an accident, a health incident, or something along those lines? At a certain money threshold Putin ceases to be worth the trouble. Russia has never been pushed anywhere near there before but now they will be. If guys start getting assets seized then it makes sense for Mogilevich et al to throw in with someone else and make the sacrifice.
Toppling him won't be enough to declare victory; they need to destroy his reputation - like, "we tried to arrest him but he hid in an orphanage like a scared dog and killed dozens of children to prevent being taken alive"
Just for internal consumption, clearly.
So with all this talk of this big armored column bearing down on Kyiv.... isn't that kind of a bad idea, tactically? I mean, is it literally just a big convoy of armored vehicles going down one single road? Or is it spread out a bit? Just seems like an awfully big target bunching up that way. Would hope that the Ukrainians have IEDs and booby traps all along that route if it is just one primary road.
That's another thing I haven't heard much talk about- the weather. I mean, its late February/ early March, which would almost seem like some of the worst time to be moving heavy armor around, especially if the roads get fucked up from combat/ disabled vehicles. Are the tanks/APCs/ vehicles all going to go off road? This kind of late winter/early spring weather would seem bad for that since the ground probably isn't frozen hard and its probably just a muddy mess. Which again would seem like a golden opportunity for the Ukrainians to pick off this convoy if they do end up getting slowed down by the terrain at all.
That's another thing I haven't heard much talk about- the weather. I mean, its late February/ early March, which would almost seem like some of the worst time to be moving heavy armor around, especially if the roads get fucked up from combat/ disabled vehicles. Are the tanks/APCs/ vehicles all going to go off road? This kind of late winter/early spring weather would seem bad for that since the ground probably isn't frozen hard and its probably just a muddy mess. Which again would seem like a golden opportunity for the Ukrainians to pick off this convoy if they do end up getting slowed down by the terrain at all.
Yeah if I were them I'd be up ahead on that road taking out bridges, felling trees over it, IEDs… whatever they can do.
Wouldn't be surprised if some oligarchs are trying to court Gerasimov. I agree with the general conclusion: once there's a critical mass of moneyed interests affected, they just need a gun to pull the trigger. Who the gun will eventually be, I'm not sure. But surely they're thinking it — and surely Putin knows this. The publicly released intelligence says as much (and will only serve to heighten his paranoia).
Talked to someone at work who has family from Ukraine and from Russia (wifes side) and recently moved to Canada.
His dad is 59 and being forced into war to defend Ukraine. His mom and sister fled and had to leave their dad.
They are basically being forced to fight their family and everyone of his family is devastated over what is happening.
His dads quote was "I did not sign up for this to kill young soldiers being forced into war by a dictator. The poor soldiers are basically my grandsons age. I'll die before killing an innocent kid being forced into war".
Like wtf world are we living in...
His dad is 59 and being forced into war to defend Ukraine. His mom and sister fled and had to leave their dad.
They are basically being forced to fight their family and everyone of his family is devastated over what is happening.
His dads quote was "I did not sign up for this to kill young soldiers being forced into war by a dictator. The poor soldiers are basically my grandsons age. I'll die before killing an innocent kid being forced into war".
Like wtf world are we living in...
There's probably a reason this convoy keeps getting longer while not moving much. It must be a logistical nightmare.
And warmer than expected weather has started early thaw in Ukraine. General Mud is probably a big factor in why these convoys are bunched up on roads like this.
Give Ukraine every advantage possible. Snuff out any Russian advantage.
Yes. But the further it moves inland, the further it is from friendly AA/radar installations. The deeper it goes, the more supplies have been consumed, the more distance must be traveled to get out.
More and more horrifying videos are emerging. Kids are dying because Putin was bored.
I heard how they have no air support and are just asking for trouble. Is that actually true? I thought Russia dominated the air space rather quickly in the first 2 days?
I heard how they have no air support and are just asking for trouble. Is that actually true? I thought Russia dominated the air space rather quickly in the first 2 days?
You laugh, but there are rumors that Chinas military is trying to do that: develop bio weapons based on ethnicity or other key factors. One of the reasons why they import so much DNA data from those "find out your heritage" scams, while they heavily restrict the export of Chinese data. They are heavily investing in that area.
Choose the narrowest, most treacherous part of their path and give the them the Teutoburg treatment.
Russia can only provide local air superiority in certain windows. They've been struck behind their own lines by drones. Ukraine just got a healthy chunk of new planes. That convoy isn't invulnerable.
I don't believe for a second that they have 700k more troops that they could effectively bring to this fight. They might have reserves, people with some military training that they could hand a rifle, but they'd be little better than the conscripts they've sent so far. On top of that, supplying and feeding the forces they already have had been a nightmare for them…now triple that.
I fully believe that once Zelensky made the decision to stay in Kyiv, the actual governmental administration and military command and control moved to Lviv, maybe even prior to the invasion. Taking Kyiv would be an important symbolic victory for the Russians, but wouldn't spell the end of Ukraine or the end of this war if the Russians are intent on taking the entire country.
