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With Chechen fighters being near Kyiv I expect that a ton of war crimes are going to be committed
Okay, so you'd be in favor of immediately triggering article 5, invading Russia and Belarus? That is the issue.
Well no real US banks are participating in SPFS (I'm not sure about CIPS) and the real challenge I think is going to be cross border USD/EUR flows, not just moving RUB around (which is I'm guessing what SPFS' primary purpose is...though I'm sure SPFS can do USD too). I think SPFS is mostly CEEMEA-based banks with maybe a few from Switzerland if I remember right, which probably has limited value from a correspondent banking relationship point of view.
I think there's a real risk that removing Russia from SWIFT starts to create some real negative incentives for them when it comes to financial and information flows and might encourage bad behavior by the banking sector.
I'm not actually sure what sanctioning the central bank means.
edit: Also there are some German banks on SFPS I think though I'm not sure what they'll really be able to do given sanctions.
Literally the opposite in the article itself: "Turkey has not made a decision to close the Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits to Russian ships, a Turkish official with knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Saturday."
I hope these sanctions and weapons are not too little too late here. We need quick and decisive action.
Russia asked Kazakhstan to send forces in to support the invasion, and Kazakhstan denied the request.
I'm glad that The Netherlands is being so helpful even though Ukraine is on the other side of Europe.
I'm loving the increasing international pressure on Russia but it makes me worry they're going to start getting a lot more irrational and start doing some dangerous lashing out at NATO countries. Guess it is what it is though.
He made it clear he wants the Russian Empire back, not the Soviet Union. He blamed Lenin for Ukraine existing.
Nah, Turkey isn't allowed to close off the Black Sea against Russia due to the Montreux agreement. Sucks, but yeah..
The world implications on how hard this has backfired, at least so far, on Russia and alt-right groups of the world is astounding. Zelensky is the face of Democracy for the world right now, and he is uniting the democratic mindset that has felt threatened over the past handful of years in the west. Its incredible what Zelensky and the Ukrainian people are doing.
Me and the wife usually do a vacation in Florida every year, but one, we just can't give our money to a red state anymore, and two, we instead donated those funds to go to relief for the Ukrainian people.
Me and the wife usually do a vacation in Florida every year, but one, we just can't give our money to a red state anymore, and two, we instead donated those funds to go to relief for the Ukrainian people.
How could Germany block the weapon transfer of former eastern-bloc nations and "eastern" made weapons ?
You shouldn't care and move on. You can't save or convince everyone from their stupidity. I'd say eff ''em and spend your time doing something more productive than trying to convince someone that shit stinks.
One thing that this war has exposed is that conventional Russian military forces would be annihilated in a conflict against even a modest modern military force.
I have to imagine unless they're bloodthirsty or brainwashed by Putin's propaganda, they don't want to be there. A lot of them are young, they must know the population in Russia doesn't support them being there, there's a decent chance they'll see fierce fighting at some point with a solid chance of dying unless they're with elite groups.
An attack on one is an attack on all. They'd be stupid to attack a NATO ally.
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As much as I wish it was is true the NBC is actually distorted from what actually happening.
As much as I wish it was is true the NBC is actually distorted from what actually happening.
That specifically isn't something to worry about anymore now that all their resources are focused on Ukraine.
I'm wondering if they might recall forces from other places to try and bolster the invasion effort.
Turkish officials have confirmed this isn't true and it's Ukrainian officials being too hopeful. Under the treaty obligations, there isn't much Turkey can do.
Wonder if anonymous being used as a front for state level cyber warfare.
Would be nice if Turkey just said that "all agreements are off" since Russia started an unprovoked war of aggression within Europe but on the other hand I'm worried that Putin would simply ignore the directive anyway and have his trigger happy Navy do incredibly stupid things at the worst time possible.
Sorry, you are correct. I was remembering that he witnessed the fall of the Soviet Union and just wants to Make Russia Great Again.
(I wouldn't be surprised if that slogan wasn't provided to Trump by Putin.)
They were largely weapons originating in east Germany during the cold war; soviet weapons that Ukraine forces would be familiar with. See:
Germany blocks Estonia from transferring weapons to Ukraine
TALLINN - Germany is blocking North Atlantic Treaty Organization ally Estonia from giving military support to Ukraine by refusing to issue permi...
Because they were sold by unified Germany, they fall under German laws including the one about weapons being transferred to war zones.
I don't think Russia is in any position to start another war any time soon seeing how much they failed so far in Ukraine. Even if they manage to take Kyiv soon, the losses suffered and the incompetence showed here will set them back so much in being a threat to any competent military. Add to this the sanctions and I think this is another "fall of Soviet Union" in terms of projecting power for them.
if they attack a NATO member, things could get from bad to worse and I honestly don't think Russia has the brute strength to face all allies unless they threaten with nukes.
I think what I'm trying to say is that if Putin sees his men being murdered en masse and announcements from Biden that they're supplying Ukraine with more weapons to do so, he'll basically be operating under the mindset that the US is already at war with him.
But I'm not at all saying that we shouldn't be sending weapons and aid.
Indeed but even USA did not to Saddam or Bin Laden.. When he falls, he will get killed - dont expect a public trail.
Something to do with how Russian military personell (Under the name of pro-russian seperatist) shot down the MH17 in Eastern Ukraine killing 298 Dutch citizens + couple Australian, Malayans. Dutch-Russian relations has been cold ever since.
Putin is pretty dumb attacking Ukraine, but not that dumb to invoke the full wrath of NATO.
If anything this has shown they probably wouldn't be able to hold long against NATO forces.
The way this is going conflict with NATO is probably scaring russian high command shitless
A long article, but: https://acoup.blog/2022/02/25/miscellanea-understanding-the-war-in-ukraine/
The writer is a historian specialised in the military and knows quite a bit about the politics around warfare. Sometimes he writes articles like this to put current events in a historical perspective.
There are multiple theories as to why, that I've read, but your second point seems to be a similar thread throughout all of them. If I understand it correctly, Putin really wants to see the restoration of the prior USSR (Edit: Russian Empire) and, additionally, likes having stooges and yes-man leaders of countries surround him. They get to feel powerful and suck up to Putin due to his power, both the from propaganda pushed through those nations (including within Russia, of course) and his ownership of enough nukes to end the world. Additionally, the Russian people aren't really in a great state.
So, you have a guy who wants to be surrounded by sycophants who will hang on his every word and a country on his border that's led by a man who was looking to the EU for partnership. Additionally, Ukraine has been doing better with more democratic policy compared to the dictatorship style of Russia. The more economically secure and healthy Ukraine becomes not being a suck-up to Putin is damaging to his dream of a united USSR, his own ego, and the impression he gives to his people that their suffering isn't unique.
This is what makes this situation so dangerous. Obviously, and I don't want to undersell it, the loss of life is incredibly tragic, and war is always bad in that regard, but Putin's goal isn't something that's really concreate. I mean, sure, taking the Eastern half of Ukraine would be considered, to him, a "win," but that's not everything he wants. What he is doing, and this is my opinion, is primarily fueled by his own self-image and ego. This is no "winning" for him without a complete domination of all old USSR nations that he'll be able to put a stamp on.
I'm not fear mongering in the since that I believe he'll attack NATO nations. I do have genuine concerns of how long this is going to last and what happens if/when Putin doesn't get a clear short-term victory. Maybe not for the world (although, let's be honest, there will be some worldwide consequences), but for the nation of Ukraine. The man doesn't care about the lives of his people or the civilians of Ukraine, so it's difficult to determine how far he's willing to go.
Yep Russian is getting repelled by old equipment but modern tactics. Fighting nato would be modern equipment with modern tactics.
Putin might, but I'd like to think those around him and at top levels in the Russian military will see the writing on the wall and end this with a little tap.