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TMC

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,248
I would consider nothing but the Vanguard options from that list.
All the others are kinda shit.

As far as bonds go.. I wouldn't, given that you are comfortable with the volatility of single stock ownership you should be fine with the volatility of index funds that aren't bonds.

Thanks for your input! So you think it's not worth investing in bonds at this time? I'm planning to retire around 50-55 if all goes well.

Yeah, I was thinking the same regarding the other options. The Vanguard Mid-Cap seems like a definite due to the very low expense ratio. Out of the remaining three I mentioned in my previous post, which one would you put at the top of the list?
 

GoldenEye 007

Roll Tide, Y'all!
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
13,833
Texas
I'm at a bit of a loss of what to do with retirement options at my new employer. I have been under an Ohio employer as a remote employee based out of state for 5 years in the OPERS combined plan. That's basically a plan where I pay into a 401k type plan (limited fund options but basically mirror most stock index funds, or bonds, cash, etc.). I pay 10% into that portion of the fund and the employer pays 12% into a pension fund. My contributions vest immediately and the pension portion vests partially at 5 years and again at 10 years. Of course you can just park it there to wait it out until you hit the required withdrawal age - you just won't have a lot of service years in their payout formula.

The dilemma is what to do with the new employer. Part of me wants to stay in that combined plan. The other part of me wonders if it makes sense to opt out of OPERS and join an alternative retirement plan which is essentially 401k type options through a selection of a few providers - Fidelity, Voya, TIAA, and one more. I still contribute 10% and they do like 11%. It is the most portable of the options as everything vests immediately. I am at the point in my career where further advancement in a remote position may be a bit limited so I'd either have to go to a different employer if I get the itch to go for a different title or consider moving to Ohio to be able to open up to higher titles. I can see myself in this current post for at least 5 years - maybe longer if there are regular salary increases yearly.

It's just hard to determine.
 

Deleted member 5876

Big Seller
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,559
Ugh totally bites. Going to owe a couple thousand for taxes this year and on top of that I have to recharacterize my roth contributions or face a 6% penalty.
Yay!
 

Deleted member 70788

Jun 2, 2020
9,620
For the first time in my life I'm at a weird place where I'm kinda "done" feeling with my investment strategy. I know I could do more, but the next phase is kind of open ended and right now I'm debating how hard I want to go. Currently I:

- Have a solid emergency fund
- Max 401ks for both my wife and myself
- Max HSA for my wife and myself
- Max backdoor Roth (can't do traditional)
- Have a house with 2.1% interest so not looking to pay that off quickly.
- Am putting additional amount in self-managed investment account
- Max I Bonds for now
- Contribute to 529s for nieces and nephews (don't plan on having own kids)

I guess I could contribute more to the self-managed fund, but as a chronic worrier, I'm feeling like it might be time to just know that enough and enjoy the rest a bit?
 

Smiley90

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,731
For the first time in my life I'm at a weird place where I'm kinda "done" feeling with my investment strategy. I know I could do more, but the next phase is kind of open ended and right now I'm debating how hard I want to go. Currently I:

- Have a solid emergency fund
- Max 401ks for both my wife and myself
- Max HSA for my wife and myself
- Max backdoor Roth (can't do traditional)
- Have a house with 2.1% interest so not looking to pay that off quickly.
- Am putting additional amount in self-managed investment account
- Max I Bonds for now
- Contribute to 529s for nieces and nephews (don't plan on having own kids)

I guess I could contribute more to the self-managed fund, but as a chronic worrier, I'm feeling like it might be time to just know that enough and enjoy the rest a bit?

Definitely. Congrats!
 

FliX

Master of the Reality Stone
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
9,868
Metro Detroit
For the first time in my life I'm at a weird place where I'm kinda "done" feeling with my investment strategy. I know I could do more, but the next phase is kind of open ended and right now I'm debating how hard I want to go. Currently I:

- Have a solid emergency fund
- Max 401ks for both my wife and myself
- Max HSA for my wife and myself
- Max backdoor Roth (can't do traditional)
- Have a house with 2.1% interest so not looking to pay that off quickly.
- Am putting additional amount in self-managed investment account
- Max I Bonds for now
- Contribute to 529s for nieces and nephews (don't plan on having own kids)

I guess I could contribute more to the self-managed fund, but as a chronic worrier, I'm feeling like it might be time to just know that enough and enjoy the rest a bit?
Cool. I've been in this autopilot phase for a while now.
Once you taken time to think everything through, make a plan and set it up. This is the way it should be.
 

sfedai0

Member
Oct 27, 2017
9,937
Hmm, never really considered I bonds but I guess now would be as good time as any. Still wont do it since 10k is the max you can buy and thats too little of a return for me.
 

Deleted member 70788

Jun 2, 2020
9,620
Hmm, never really considered I bonds but I guess now would be as good time as any. Still wont do it since 10k is the max you can buy and thats too little of a return for me.

Why not? If you have $10,000 in a savings account and know you won't need it for a year, you're better off with it in I Bonds. Until the end of April your first 6 months is locked in at over 7% interest. In a year you can pull it out with a 3 month penalty whenever you want. It takes MAYBE a day or two to transfer it to your bank account. Where are you dumping money that promises you a 7% return without risk?

So, for me, I Bonds are currently a great place to park savings that I may need, but know I can float for a year. Say my emergency fund is $50k. My wife and my job are super stable right now and we have enough resources to float until next April. So dumping $10k of my emergency fund in a 7% I Bond for a year is by far the most lucrative return while still being almost risk free.

Or you can park it in a savings account and get such poor return you're losing money.
 

sfedai0

Member
Oct 27, 2017
9,937
Well, thats why I said for me. This is the retirement thread so obviously risk free and conservative investing is the way to go. My investments are much more aggressive and risky so I would be using 10k in other ways.
 

Deleted member 70788

Jun 2, 2020
9,620
Well, thats why I said for me. This is the retirement thread so obviously risk free and conservative investing is the way to go. My investments are much more aggressive and risky so I would be using 10k in other ways.
Fair. Though, again, I don't think the return should be analyzed against higher risk vehicles, but against parking savings. Unless you run at near zero in your savings account.
 

sfedai0

Member
Oct 27, 2017
9,937
Fair. Though, again, I don't think the return should be analyzed against higher risk vehicles, but against parking savings. Unless you run at near zero in your savings account.

Bingo. Not near zero but generally 5k or less. But yes, youre right in thinking of buying I series as a much better alternative than having it sit in a CD or HYSA.
 

Deleted member 70788

Jun 2, 2020
9,620
Bingo. Not near zero but generally 5k or less. But yes, youre right in thinking of buying I series as a much better alternative than having it sit in a CD or HYSA.
Gotcha. I'm already socking back almost $80k annually in other investment vehicles so the I Bonds is just a little bonus for the stable cash foundation.
 

Lumination

Member
Oct 26, 2017
12,469
Another year, another harrowing hour spent making sure my backdoor is filed correctly. Formalize this shit, Congress, please.
 

Lumination

Member
Oct 26, 2017
12,469
What do you mean file correctly?
I've tried all kinds of software, but none I've used just has a backdoor option. It's always report your Traditional IRA -> watch tax go up -> report your Roth -> edit your Traditional to tell it you've converted to Roth. Or something similar. It's always more work than it should be.

Honestly might be easier filling out the worksheets by hand tbh...
 

tokkun

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,400
Didn't they almost kill it entirely with the Build Back Better bill?

They almost killed it in the Trump-era tax bill as well, but the changes didn't make it to the final version.

I am sure it will get eliminated eventually. Pretty much everyone agrees it is an unintended loophole. The primary beneficiaries are also the upper middleclass, which isn't that powerful of a lobbying group.
 

feline fury

Member
Dec 8, 2017
1,539
Seeing how close both the backdoor and mega backdoor Roths were eliminated makes me want to funnel in as much money as I can before that happens. My original plan was to stop the mega backdoor contributions this year and just ride with the 401k and vanilla backdoor contributions. Would be more spending money and less paperwork but I feel like I would regret not taking advantage while the window is still open.
 
Oct 30, 2017
2,363
Long story short, my wife and I got married January 2022. We both have a 17 month baby. My wife makes gross $110,000 as I make $60,000. We both have 401k, however I have a Roth in my name only I contribute $300 a month.

Our tax specialist said to update our W4 to married filing separately. Then, when we do our taxes for 2022 they'll do it as married filing jointly.

I've read it's a bad idea, as in can't contribute to my Roth if I file married filing separately?
 

Deleted member 5876

Big Seller
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,559
Long story short, my wife and I got married January 2022. We both have a 17 month baby. My wife makes gross $110,000 as I make $60,000. We both have 401k, however I have a Roth in my name only I contribute $300 a month.

Our tax specialist said to update our W4 to married filing separately. Then, when we do our taxes for 2022 they'll do it as married filing jointly.

I've read it's a bad idea, as in can't contribute to my Roth if I file married filing separately?

I think you are screwed either way as you are living together.. yes?
EDIT: my bad I misread your question. I think the below link is useful either way. Based on my new reading of your question and my understanding of what the link below is saying I would agree with you that filing as "married; separate" is a bad idea. But I'm not a tax adviser.

www.investopedia.com

Can I Contribute to an IRA if I’m Married Filing Separately?

If you’re married filing separately, living together or apart affects whether (or how much) you can put in an IRA and what the deductible is.

As the table shows, if you're married filing separately, the income limits are significantly different, depending on whether or not you lived together at any time during the year.

- If you didn't live together at all, you can contribute the full Roth IRA amount as long as your income was less than $129,000 for the year. This could, for example, work for divorcing couples who are still legally married.
- However, if you lived together at any time during the year, the income limit is less than $10,000, meaning that you can't contribute anything if you made $10,000 or more.
 
Last edited:
Oct 30, 2017
2,363
I saw that on investopedia too. Ugh I called another tax specialist at HRB, they said same thing: do married filing separately. But my question about Roth wasn't answered.

I'm getting worried. So it's basically saying I can't contribute anything at all?
 
Oct 30, 2017
2,363
Ok I just called my mother in laws tax guy. He agrees about W4 filing separately and come tax return we do filing jointly.

As for Roth, he said google income threshold for Roth contributions married filing jointly? That should tell how much I can contribute if our combined income is $170,000…but we both have a pretax 401k plan which could limit how much I can contribute. Any help with the chart? It's confusing me.

edit-looks like I'm safe? We both combined under $200k?


Charles Schwab

 

tokkun

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,400
Ok I just called my mother in laws tax guy. He agrees about W4 filing separately and come tax return we do filing jointly.

As for Roth, he said google income threshold for Roth contributions married filing jointly?

Yes, your contribution limit is based entirely on how you file your tax return.

What you list on your W4 doesn't matter. The W4 is solely used for computing how much your employer should automatically withhold from your salary. It does not actually effect your tax burden or eligibility.
 

Cosmic A

Member
Aug 18, 2018
169
Hey guys, looking to get some advice on whether I should move funds between two funds.

I have a Roth at Vanguard that has around 1K in an ETF. Last year I got SEP IRA from work and I was a dumbass and didn't read up on the funds they were recommending. I looked at it and it has an expense ratio of 1.10% which from what I understand is high.

I want to get out of this fund and move to a vanguard one such as VTSMX. I haven't been paying attention to it and the SEP has lost about 1K from the initial investment. But it looks like everything else has been taking a hit.

I guess my main question is should I go ahead and sell at a loss now and buy the other fund or should I wait to see if it recovers a little?

The SEP IRA fund is GWPCX if it helps.
 

tokkun

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,400
Hey guys, looking to get some advice on whether I should move funds between two funds.

I have a Roth at Vanguard that has around 1K in an ETF. Last year I got SEP IRA from work and I was a dumbass and didn't read up on the funds they were recommending. I looked at it and it has an expense ratio of 1.10% which from what I understand is high.

I want to get out of this fund and move to a vanguard one such as VTSMX. I haven't been paying attention to it and the SEP has lost about 1K from the initial investment. But it looks like everything else has been taking a hit.

I guess my main question is should I go ahead and sell at a loss now and buy the other fund or should I wait to see if it recovers a little?

The SEP IRA fund is GWPCX if it helps.

Sell now and buy into the new fund as soon as possible afterward.

You should view the losses as a sunk cost. They don't make the fund any more likely to outperform other funds in the future.
 

Smiley90

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,731
So, my workplace allows either Roth 401k or traditional 401k contributions. I usually do Roth, this time I did traditional AND roth... but it both goes into the same account on Fidelity? Is there some way I can see the breakdown of how much I have in pre-tax/post-tax 401k money?
 

Niahak

Member
Oct 25, 2017
620
So, my workplace allows either Roth 401k or traditional 401k contributions. I usually do Roth, this time I did traditional AND roth... but it both goes into the same account on Fidelity? Is there some way I can see the breakdown of how much I have in pre-tax/post-tax 401k money?
How you get there probably depends on your provider - I don't have Fidelity - but I can see a "funding source breakdown" on a statement that shows all sources and their current dollar amount. I don't have non-Roth contributions myself, so I don't see a separate line for it, but I know the employee matching is non-Roth and my contributions specifically say "Employee Roth".

Although it's interesting that the statement doesn't specifically say for the others, my guess is that the "default" is non-Roth and anything Roth would be called out. I suspect non-employee Roth contributions aren't really a thing, anyway.

I don't see any non-statement way to view that information, though.
 

Metroidvania

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,768
which bonds? government? etf?

I-bond are government bonds that have a base bond rate + a variable (changes twice a year, I think?) inflation adjustment on top.

If you buy before april 30th, you get 6 months of the current 7.5(6?) percent interest, then another 6 months of the rate starting in May (which appears to be ~9%).

You can buy up to 10grand a year on the US dept of Treasury's website.

If you buy after May 1st IIRC you get the 9.6% rate for 6 months, then whatever the next period ends up being (which could be lower, depending on how effective the Fed's rate increases are, +/- whatever other factors have changed in terms of inflationary pressure)
 

rokkerkory

Banned
Jun 14, 2018
14,128
I-bond are government bonds that have a base bond rate + a variable (changes twice a year, I think?) inflation adjustment on top.

If you buy before april 30th, you get 6 months of the current 7.5(6?) percent interest, then another 6 months of the rate starting in May (which appears to be ~9%).

You can buy up to 10grand a year on the US dept of Treasury's website.

If you buy after May 1st IIRC you get the 9.6% rate for 6 months, then whatever the next period ends up being (which could be lower, depending on how effective the Fed's rate increases are, +/- whatever other factors have changed in terms of inflationary pressure)

oh I see... thanks for this... good info... need to do more research for sure. 9.6% rate is not bad at all.

edit: here is the US gov ibond website for those interested: https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds.htm
 

Sheepinator

Member
Jul 25, 2018
27,956
Note the early withdrawal clause for I bonds. You must hold for 1 year and if you withdraw before 5 years, you lose the previous 3 months interest.
 

Smiley90

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,731
How you get there probably depends on your provider - I don't have Fidelity - but I can see a "funding source breakdown" on a statement that shows all sources and their current dollar amount. I don't have non-Roth contributions myself, so I don't see a separate line for it, but I know the employee matching is non-Roth and my contributions specifically say "Employee Roth".

Although it's interesting that the statement doesn't specifically say for the others, my guess is that the "default" is non-Roth and anything Roth would be called out. I suspect non-employee Roth contributions aren't really a thing, anyway.

I don't see any non-statement way to view that information, though.


Mhmmm I'll check out my next statement then, thanks. Can't see a way just in the overview somehow.
 

FliX

Master of the Reality Stone
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
9,868
Metro Detroit
So, my workplace allows either Roth 401k or traditional 401k contributions. I usually do Roth, this time I did traditional AND roth... but it both goes into the same account on Fidelity? Is there some way I can see the breakdown of how much I have in pre-tax/post-tax 401k money?
At fidelity I see it under:
401k>My Contributions>Summary Tab
and then Show Details under Sources
 

ohabs

Member
Oct 25, 2017
126
Cincinnati
I have a Roth IRA with Fidelity that I want to put some more money into but in not sure how to choose where to invest the money. I am set up right now with FIPFX, FZILX, and FZROX that my dad recommended when I started. Do I just distribute more money to those same ones or should I choose something else, and how do I know what's good? I kinda space out when trying to read about what to do because it's like reading a foreign language and the words don't mean anything to me.
 

Chaosblade

Resettlement Advisor
Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,592
I have a Roth IRA with Fidelity that I want to put some more money into but in not sure how to choose where to invest the money. I am set up right now with FIPFX, FZILX, and FZROX that my dad recommended when I started. Do I just distribute more money to those same ones or should I choose something else, and how do I know what's good? I kinda space out when trying to read about what to do because it's like reading a foreign language and the words don't mean anything to me.
Those are good funds individually, most people here would probably recommend sticking with them since you are already with Fidelity. Together, they are an odd and kind of counterintuitive mix.

So, what's good:
1) Low cost. Not the cost of individual shares, but rather the fees involved. Sometimes there are fees for buying or selling, but anything recommended here isn't going to have that. Otherwise, your "expense ratio" which is your cost to hold the funds. Pretty much anything below 0.2% is good and within margin of error of tracking the fund's index. Uh oh, what's that mean?

2) Index funds. Index funds are investment funds that track a given index. So in the case of your FZROX fund, it roughly tracks the total US stock market index. If the stock market goes up, your investment goes up, and vice-versa. There is some slight variation between the funds and the index they track, but they will be very close. Index funds are generally low cost since they are passive - they don't have a guy who spends his day buying and selling stocks (or bonds) out of the fund. It just follows the market. Index funds, or at least the total market variety that often get associated with the term "index fund," also generally have the benefit of diversity.

3) Diversity. This is good because it means one "thing" won't tank your portfolio. That thing could be a single company, like the company you work for. Or it could be a sector of the market, like Real Estate. If your entire retirement savings is put into your company's stock, that means your entire retirement could be in trouble if the company struggles. If you are invested in a total market index, your company struggling would likely barely be a blip on the radar.

4) Staying the course. This year kind of sucks, but that doesn't mean you should sell your funds. Stay the course and don't worry about drops like we've seen lately, on average the total market goes up every year. And it's hard to consistently beat the increase of the total market.

Optional 5) Target date. Your FIPFX fund is a target date fund. These are entirely hands-off, basically a whole retirement portfolio in a single fund. These often contain a mix of total market stock and bond funds, split between US and non-US markets. More or less the same funds described above, but with the target date fund your investments are automatically rebalanced as your approach retirement based on the year of your target date fund. In your case, it's targeting retirement in about 2050. These generally cost a little more than a basic index fund in terms of fees, but not enough eliminate a good target date fund from consideration. For some, it's worth the peace of mind and simplicity. You can pretty much treat it like a savings account. Other funds, like FZROX and FZILX, need some input from you to keep your portfolio in balance.

Balance is entirely a personal preference thing and not something that you can really get clear cut advice for. Things like stocks vs bonds or US vs non-US. I think that's covered in the OP. But so is most of the above.

So you can probably see why I called that mix counterintuitive. FIPFX is a hands-off target date fund. The other two are total market index funds, but require you to determine the balance between US (FZROX) and international (FZILX) investment.
 
Last edited:

Fubar

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,723
Question for some general advice, not going to hold anyone to anything, you're not my financial advisor, etc.

I am in my mid-20s and had a 401k through a previous employer that now has ~20k in it. My new job (government) has a pension and my hope is to end my career in government, eventually retiring on said pension.

What should I be doing with the 401k? I don't plan to contribute anything to it in the short term (going to aggressively pay down debt in near future here) but am not opposed to putting money into something in ~2-3 years.

Thanks everyone.
 

Deleted member 70788

Jun 2, 2020
9,620
Question for some general advice, not going to hold anyone to anything, you're not my financial advisor, etc.

I am in my mid-20s and had a 401k through a previous employer that now has ~20k in it. My new job (government) has a pension and my hope is to end my career in government, eventually retiring on said pension.

What should I be doing with the 401k? I don't plan to contribute anything to it in the short term (going to aggressively pay down debt in near future here) but am not opposed to putting money into something in ~2-3 years.

Thanks everyone.

Option 1: You can just leave it as is. You CANNOT put money into it anymore though, any additional contributions to a 401k will have to be through a new employer.

Option 2: Setup up a Retirement Account with a broker and roll it over into that. Reinvest it in self managed stocks or a target date fund.

Option 3: If you think your income will be lower than it is when you retire, roll it into a Roth IRA and pay the taxes now. Let it grow tax free for the rest of your life.
 

BAD

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,565
USA
Option 1: You can just leave it as is. You CANNOT put money into it anymore though, any additional contributions to a 401k will have to be through a new employer.

Option 2: Setup up a Retirement Account with a broker and roll it over into that. Reinvest it in self managed stocks or a target date fund.

Option 3: If you think your income will be lower than it is when you retire, roll it into a Roth IRA and pay the taxes now. Let it grow tax free for the rest of your life.
Couldn't he rollover the old 401k into his new one and continue adding to it?
 

Chaosblade

Resettlement Advisor
Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,592
Option 1: You can just leave it as is. You CANNOT put money into it anymore though, any additional contributions to a 401k will have to be through a new employer.

Option 2: Setup up a Retirement Account with a broker and roll it over into that. Reinvest it in self managed stocks or a target date fund.

Option 3: If you think your income will be lower than it is when you retire, roll it into a Roth IRA and pay the taxes now. Let it grow tax free for the rest of your life.
AFAIK option 1 can result in account fees that were covered by the employer getting passed on to the account holder. Also, 401K options are often worse than what those in a personal account through Vanguard or Fidelity.

So rolling it over could very possibly have the double benefit of giving access to better funds and reducing/eliminating account fees.

Couldn't he rollover the old 401k into his new one and continue adding to it?
I'm not very familiar with pensions, but I don't think they are "compatible" with 401K/IRA accounts. So I don't think a 401K can be rolled over into a pension fund. But I could be wrong.
 

Deleted member 70788

Jun 2, 2020
9,620
AFAIK option 1 can result in account fees that were covered by the employer getting passed on to the account holder. Also, 401K options are often worse than what those in a personal account through Vanguard or Fidelity.

So rolling it over could very possibly have the double benefit of giving access to better funds and reducing/eliminating account fees.


I'm not very familiar with pensions, but I don't think they are "compatible" with 401K/IRA accounts. So I don't think a 401K can be rolled over into a pension fund. But I could be wrong.
I would absolutely roll it over if you have the time. Then it's just a question of Roth vs 401k IRA. Which, just do the math of income now vs income at retirement.
 

Deleted member 70788

Jun 2, 2020
9,620
Couldn't he rollover the old 401k into his new one and continue adding to it?
You generally can't roll an old 401k into a new work one and even if so, it doesn't sound like his new job has great setup.

Far better to just set something up in Schwab and then roll it into there. Added benefit that if you change jobs again, you have a central roll over account you can just keep dumping funds into.
 

Deleted member 5876

Big Seller
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,559
It is possible to roll 401k's into pensions. But they have to be compatible and the employer has to allow it.
Something to ask HR about.
 

TylerD

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,093
I vote for OPTION 2: I have a Rollover IRA in Vanguard that is 70% total US stock market, 30% total international stock market where I have rolled my 2 previous employer 401ks when I left them and plan to keep doing that until I retire. The low fee fund and investment options available through Vanguard are so much better than what I had through either.
 

SeaSilver

Banned
Dec 28, 2020
447
My company is finally offering a 401K so I've been trying to decide whether to prioritize Roth or traditional contributions. Lots of discussion in this thread has been helpful already, but I need to read more pages. But so far I think I'll prioritize a traditional 401K.

One factor that hit me is this: while I'd love to retire and have gobs of money (who wouldn't?) I don't know that my life will be so rich and lucky. I'm not one of those people who can contribute 50% of my income every year. So I view my 401K as a way to ensure that I have some kind of personal savings for retirement — something better than the minimal life afforded by social security — but it's not some piece of a mega asset collection.

With that aspect in mind, I view the account types like this: a Roth may be better later in life if my tax bracket is high, but that means I'm already doing just fine. A traditional account is a hedge if I'm not doing that well later in life. Yes I pay taxes on the traditional distributions, but if I'm not rich then I'm in a low tax bracket. Does this thinking make sense or is it totally out of line?
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,126
My company is finally offering a 401K so I've been trying to decide whether to prioritize Roth or traditional contributions. Lots of discussion in this thread has been helpful already, but I need to read more pages. But so far I think I'll prioritize a traditional 401K.

One factor that hit me is this: while I'd love to retire and have gobs of money (who wouldn't?) I don't know that my life will be so rich and lucky. I'm not one of those people who can contribute 50% of my income every year. So I view my 401K as a way to ensure that I have some kind of personal savings for retirement — something better than the minimal life afforded by social security — but it's not some piece of a mega asset collection.

With that aspect in mind, I view the account types like this: a Roth may be better later in life if my tax bracket is high, but that means I'm already doing just fine. A traditional account is a hedge if I'm not doing that well later in life. Yes I pay taxes on the traditional distributions, but if I'm not rich then I'm in a low tax bracket. Does this thinking make sense or is it totally out of line?
Yes, your thinking makes sense.

The most important thing is to start saving, at the very least try to put enough in to maximize your employer's match. It's a free raise.

As for the traditional vs Roth discussion, as long as everything (mainly taxes and your income) stays roughly the same as now, Traditional will beat Roth. If either taxes or your income in retirement rise significantly, Roth may outperform traditional.

Don't discount the possibility that you may make more in retirement, when I first ran the numbers for my wife and I, Social Security, her pension, and our rather lackluster savings (with a very conservative withdrawal rate) were on pace to exceed our then current income if we worked to full retirement age. Obviously that's a personal situation and may not apply to you.

If you think things are going to remain roughly status quo, go traditional. If you think taxes or your income are going to rise or if you want flexibility in how you withdraw funds in retirement, go Roth. You're not going to go too far wrong even if you make the "wrong" choice, just getting in the habit of saving will do you good.