One thing I meant to do this year was compare the GOTY results to
the Most Anticipated vote at the beginning of the year to see how closely of our year-end selections reflected pre-release hype, expectations, and consequently the likelihood that players would dive into these games as soon as possible.
This is a straight rank comparison, and I won't pretend for a second it's a good statistical methodology; just a curious exercise. We're talking about two different voting pools here, and some shifting will naturally happen due to the absence/ineligibility of a number of big releases on the Most Anticipated poll as they had not been announced or dated. In the other direction, a few games that appeared on the poll were delayed into 2019 (KH3 at #5, for one), and if I were to do this rigorously I would account for that and adjust accordingly. Perhaps these effects balance out. In the case of ties, I will count the Most Anticipated rank as the highest of the lot (e.g. ranks 128 to 148 on the Most Anticipated poll all scored 4 points, so I'll count anything in that set as if it were placed at rank 128).
Minor shifts will not be that interesting. Major swings are what we're looking for.
The GOTY list 2018, and the corresponding rise/fall in ranks from the Most Anticipated list:
- God of War — 2nd to 1st (+1)
- Marvel's Spider-Man — 3rd to 2nd (+1)
- Red Dead Redemption 2 — 1st to 3rd (-2)
- Super Smash Bros. Ultimate — unannounced
- Monster Hunter World — 4th to 5th (-1)
- Celeste — 113th to 6th (+107)
- Dragon Quest XI — 8th to 7th (+1)
- Astro Bot Rescue Mission — unannounced
- Assassin's Creed Odyssey — unannounced
- Detroit: Become Human — 6th to 10th (-4)
- Into the Breach — announced but undated
- Octopath Traveler — 14th to 12th (+2)
- Tetris Effect — unannounced
- Hitman 2 — unannounced
- Dead Cells — announced (Early Access) but undated
- Forza Horizon 4 — unannounced
- Return of the Obra Dinn — unannounced
- Yakuza 6 — 10th to 18th (-8)
- Dragon Ball FighterZ — 11th to 19th (-8)
- Pokémon Let's Go — unannounced
Supposing the GOTY top 20 included ports/remakes/remasters, we would also see this (bumping everything below them down a spot, of course):
- Hollow Knight — 53rd to 9th (+44)
- Shadow of the Colossus — 7th to 14th (-7)
Meanwhile, here are the games that made the Most Anticipated top 20 and released in 2018 (in the order they appeared in the Most Anticipated results). The GOTY "destination" rank here
does account for ports/remakes/remasters because I took these numbers from the unfiltered data and can't be bothered to make the adjustment manually.
- Ni No Kuni II — 9th to 38th (-29)
- Valkyria Chronicles 4 — 12th to 25th (-13)
- Mega Man 11 — 18th to 40th (-22)
Again, these numbers are rough and the methodology is neither consistent nor sound. But I think we can spot a few things clear enough to talk about. The short announcement-to-release cycle of several big-name releases had a palpable effect that principally clustered around a visible second tier; the most anticipated titles that arrived on schedule largely held their position (apart from Nino Kuni II); and most noticeably of all, Celeste saw an absolutely meteoric rise—all the more remarkable when you consider that the Most Anticipated poll was run when it was quite close to its January release.