Renewed outbreaks in South Korea, Germany and China show continued risk as more countries seek to reopen

[Brinbe]

They don't care about "getting it". A combination of ignorance and selfishness.

Click to shrink...

yep, pretty much. it's a collective sacrifice we're all making to help our fellow man through unprecedented modern times.

it's a test of compassion/empathy/understanding and we're failing.

and the ones that bear the brunt of it are inevitably often the poorest/brownest/blackest amongst us. which is why all this talk about completely re-opening breaks my heart. that's who this will fall inevitably fall on when shit hits the fan again. and it will. except with even less help, care or understanding because people are impatient and selfish.

 

[Kyrios]

It's never really about eliminating the disease. It's about making sure that the healthcare system can keep up with the amount of cases stretched over a longer time.

Thinking there won't be any new cases after things reopen is foolish.

Click to shrink...

Pretty much this.

All the measures that took place were for delaying, not necessarily preventing cases.

 

[gcubed]

only a tiny sliver of maniacs who think the illuminati are real are the people who think things will go back to normal barring a vaccine available to the world. To use that as a basis in your argument does a disservice to your argument, and if you are coming from the direction of the lockdown is to remove the virus, you are already off the rails

5 cases is *prescisely* the time you want to be locking down. Everywhere that locked down really early has done better than places that waited until they had hundreds or thousands of cases.

Look at NZ. They locked down before they'd had a single confirmed fatality, and the virus is almost completely eliminated there now.

Click to shrink...

look at this island that can close its borders completely and is small enough to test its entire population! Its done wonders!

 

[Ac30]

The US isn't using magical thinking, we're using American gun violence thinking, "this is a terrible thing but attempting to address it is liberal hysteria and requires liberal solutions, thoughts & prayers is all we need."

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You're not the only one plagued with idiots protesting lockdown measures, don't worry!

 

[Deleted member 21339]

Definitely, but at least in the US, we've scrapped the CDC guidelines for re-opening. Again, this Trump's CDC too lol.



No one lol.

It's about containing it.

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Ok? And 5 cases is containable with proper testing and tracing measures isn't it? This article is alarmist.

That wasn't the environment when this thing had "exponential growth"

 

[entremet]

Ok? And 5 cases is containable with proper testing and tracing measures isn't it? This article is alarmist

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No it's not.

Risks is a very specific term. You assume risk in all these models. But, speaking in the US, we've even thrown away our own models!

Also, since when does the US have adequate testing and tracking? Come on, man lol.

Also, SK just added 30 more days of contained lockdowns. Do you think they're being alarmists themselves?

 

[Antiwhippy]

5 cases is *prescisely* the time you want to be locking down. Everywhere that locked down really early has done better than places that waited until they had hundreds or thousands of cases.

Look at NZ. They locked down before they'd had a single confirmed fatality, and the virus is almost completely eliminated there now.

Click to shrink...

3 new cases just when they were easing restrictions.

And New Zealand is an example that is near impossible to replicate. And I'm not talking about systemic. I'm talking about literal geography. Isolated island with very low populations (lower than an average Australian state) is not something most of the world can achieve.

 

[CreepingFear]

People in the US have given up, and it fucking disgusts me. I know enough history to know that during past times such as World War 2, people sacrificed things. They were told or forced to ration certain things that were needed for the war, and they did it. This Covid is a war. People couldn't even wait until May. I thought that people could at least make it until June, I was wrong.

 

[K' Dash]

Unless you're Korean, you'll inevitably be called a "Waygookin" or "Waygook" in Korea, which is Korean for foreigner/out-of country.

It's essentially the equivalent of the "China-towns" that we have in the west, but with a more diverse population.

It's home to a large amount of Soul's expat/immigrant community and is located directly next to one of the US army bases (which is supposedly moving out of Seoul, but they've been saying that for years). It's also home to the only mosque in Seoul. It's also one of the two bigger party neighborhoods (the other being Hongdae), so it was inevitable that as soon as bars/clubs reopened people would flock to them.

For a large part of it's recent history, it's had a bit of a seedy reputation ("Hooker Hill" is a very well know landmark) that it just seemed to be getting over the past couple years. When I first moved to Korea in 2014, I was told by multiple Koreans to "not go to Itaewon" and that "it's dangerous". Judging by the reaction's my friends who are still living over there are reporting their schools are having with this news, it may be back to square one. Two have schools that are telling everyone if they find out you're anywhere near Itaewon, you're gone.

Itaewon Freedom - Groove Magazine

How Korea’s expat hub rose from seedy slum to elite escape

web.archive.org

Click to shrink...

Thank you, this was very informative.

 

[Deleted member 21339]

No it's not.

Risks is a very specific term. You assume risk in all these models. But, speaking in the US, we've even thrown away our own models!

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You're saying if a big city like Wuhan has 5 new cases of Covid but has proper testing and tracing mechanisms in place that the entire city should go into lockdown?

 

[plagiarize]

Who is expecting this to go to zero before relaxing measures?

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It's not a realistic goal for places that waited too long to respond, but for South Korea or NZ it has proven completely realistic, because they responded quickly and appropriately.

Yes, most of Europe, the US and lots of other places, can't realistically go after this goal, but that's due to reacting *far* too late in the first place and missing that window.

only a tiny sliver of maniacs who think the illuminati are real are the people who think things will go back to normal. To use that as a basis in your argument does a disservice to your argument

Click to shrink...

It doesn't take many and those idiots hurt other people. I woke up to a story in the Washington Post this morning about someone harassing a teenager at our local ice cream place so badly she quit.

look at this island that can close its borders completely and is small enough to test its entire population! Its done wonders!

Click to shrink...

This is just making excuses if you ask me. No, we couldn't have expected to do as well as NZ did, but that doesn't change the simple fact that had other countries locked down when they first had community spread, that tens of thousands (maybe hundreds of thousands) of lives would have been saved. You don't need to be an island to lock down sooner rather than later. Germany locked down earlier in the infection curve than the rest of Europe and have done measurably better than Italy, Spain, France and the UK.

 

[entremet]

You're saying if a big city like Wuhan has 5 new cases of Covid but has proper testing and tracing mechanisms in place that the entire city should go into lockdown?

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No. I never said that lol.

As far as I know, Wuhan does. The whole point of the article is about risks in re-opening. If these model areas are having spikes, what about areas without the capacity?

 

[Antiwhippy]

And also, this is not a failure of the previous lockdown nor the reopening. If cases explode again it will be, but people need to be prepared that clusters after it happened will occur and that it's up to the contact tracing teams to isolate the clusters. That's how it must be judged. The fact that they can find these cases early should be good, we just have to see how spread it is from here or if they manage to catch it early.

 

[Deleted member 21339]

No. I never said that lol.

Click to shrink...

Ok then I don't follow you

 

[entremet]

Ok then I don't follow you

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As far as I know, Wuhan does. The whole point of the article is about risks in re-opening. If these model areas are having spikes, what about areas without the capacity?

This situation is very fluid. A wise interpretation is to continue to look at the data and adjust. Not re-open without a proper containment strategy.

As far as I've read, we're not prepared for contact tracing, but we're going full steam ahead.

 

[ManNR]

Most do get it, they just don't care. Look at people crowding beaches, parks, etc. People want movies, sports, and everything to all open up already.

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I'd argue people want things to reopen because of lack of leadership. Even a person most committed to mitigating their risk for Covid-19 is going to feel their resolve slipping when the weather is beautiful and other people are out & about. The resolve would be much easier to maintain if a well-spoken & logical leader were to regularly remind them that they are making the right call, doing the right thing, acting as a hero for their country during a troubled time.

Without such leadership we will naturally begin to question ourselves & wonder if we are over-reacting.

 

[Brotherhood93]

Clearly they didn't 'Stay Alert'

 

[Rangerx]

We're going to live with restrictions until we get a vaccine. It's that simple. People want to open up the economy and schools but if there isn't massive testing and contact tracing capacity there then it is going to jump right back up again and back to strict lockdowns. The fact of the matter is there needs to be huge state investment in business and a whole raft of other supports put in place because nothing is going to change much for the next two years.

 

[Deleted member 21339]

As far as I know, Wuhan does. The whole point of the article is about risks in re-opening. If these model areas are having spikes, what about areas without the capacity?

This situation is very fluid. A wise interpretation is to continue to look at the data and adjust. Not re-open without a proper containment strategy.

As far as I've read, we're not prepared for contact tracing, but we're going full steam ahead.

Click to shrink...

Ahh, so you're talking about how unprepared places like America are. Now I understand

 

[gcubed]

It's not a realistic goal for places that waited too long to respond, but for South Korea or NZ it has proven completely realistic, because they responded quickly and appropriately.

Yes, most of Europe, the US and lots of other places, can't realistically go after this goal, but that's due to reacting *far* too late in the first place and missing that window.


It doesn't take many and those idiots hurt other people. I woke up to a story in the Washington Post this morning about someone harassing a teenager at our local ice cream place so badly she quit.


This is just making excuses if you ask me. No, we couldn't have expected to do as well as NZ did, but that doesn't change the simple fact that had other countries locked down when they first had community spread, that tens of thousands (maybe hundreds of thousands) of lives would have been saved. You don't need to be an island to lock down sooner rather than later. Germany locked down earlier in the infection curve than the rest of Europe and have done measurably better than Italy, Spain, France and the UK.

Click to shrink...

people are assholes, always have been and always will be, especially in the US where we broke our collective minds after voting for a black man as president. There were lunatics during WW2 as well, this whitewashing of history and using the rosy story of our collective greatness during wars is on par with saying leave it to beaver was so wholesome can't we just get back to that.

no, you don't need to be an island to lock down sooner rather than later, but unless you are a small island that can test the entire population and prevent people from coming to you / or choke entry through government controlled ports its not even a good example to use.

Yes Germany, and they are experiencing new outbreaks mostly centered around industrial areas and meat packing. Its not going to go away.

 

[BasilZero]

Most do get it, they just don't care. Look at people crowding beaches, parks, etc. People want movies, sports, and everything to all open up already.

Click to shrink...

Direct to video and/or streaming services for movies

Empty arena recordings of Sports


Those are solutions which may not be the same but will make everyone the happiest between needing to close everything still and having to open everything.


Beaches...well that is whole another issue there.

 

[Phantom]

I just need a dentist. The rest I can live without

 

[maxxpower]

I mean, what did people think was gonna happen when you opened stuff up, the virus was gonna magically go away? Doesn't take a genius.

 

[entremet]

Ahh, so you're talking about how unprepared places like America are. Now I understand

Click to shrink...

Yes.

The issues are not that we should stay locked forever obviously. If we want a true recovery, where consumer confidence improves, we need to be prepared. Not the case as of this writing in the US and other countries. They are underestimating the secondary effects of the pandemic.

 

[gcubed]

Yes.

The issues are not that we should stay locked forever obviously. If we want a true recovery, where consumer confidence improves, we need to be prepared. Not the case as of this writing in the US and other countries. They are underestimating the secondary effects of the pandemic.

Click to shrink...

consumer confidence isn't going to return to "normal" even with extensive testing and tracing.

 

[Bigwombat]

Unless you're Korean, you'll inevitably be called a "Waygookin" or "Waygook" in Korea, which is Korean for foreigner/out-of country.

It's essentially the equivalent of the "China-towns" that we have in the west, but with a more diverse population.

It's home to a large amount of Soul's expat/immigrant community and is located directly next to one of the US army bases (which is supposedly moving out of Seoul, but they've been saying that for years). It's also home to the only mosque in Seoul. It's also one of the two bigger party neighborhoods (the other being Hongdae), so it was inevitable that as soon as bars/clubs reopened people would flock to them.

For a large part of it's recent history, it's had a bit of a seedy reputation ("Hooker Hill" is a very well know landmark) that it just seemed to be getting over the past couple years. When I first moved to Korea in 2014, I was told by multiple Koreans to "not go to Itaewon" and that "it's dangerous". Judging by the reaction's my friends who are still living over there are reporting their schools are having with this news, it may be back to square one. Two have schools that are telling everyone if they find out you're anywhere near Itaewon, you're gone.

Itaewon Freedom - Groove Magazine

How Korea’s expat hub rose from seedy slum to elite escape

web.archive.org

Click to shrink...

There is a game I played several years ago on the ps3 that used the word gweilo in one section. Like a lot. So much so that I just started saying it at home to my wife just to be annoying.

I think it was the second deus ex.

 

[plagiarize]

people are assholes, always have been and always will be, especially in the US where we broke our collective minds after voting for a black man as president. There were lunatics during WW2 as well, this whitewashing of history and using the rosy story of our collective greatness during wars is on par with saying leave it to beaver was so wholesome can't we just get back to that.

no, you don't need to be an island to lock down sooner rather than later, but unless you are a small island that can test the entire population and prevent people from coming to you / or choke entry through government controlled ports its not even a good example to use.

Yes Germany, and they are experiencing new outbreaks mostly centered around industrial areas and meat packing. Its not going to go away.

Click to shrink...

I know it's not going to 'go away'. But this rhetoric sounds a lot like 'we couldn't have done better', and I don't agree with that idea. The lesson of Italy was clear, well before the UK, for example, locked down.

We should be watching these reopening strategies for the countries much further along in their efforts and learning the right lessons from them about when and how quickly to reopen various sectors. To put things into perspective, yes, Germany have seen their infection rate increase, and as such they will be locking down counties that saw outbreaks, but you're still talking significantly less new infections and death than Italy.

These aren't things telling us not to reopen anything until we have immunization. Nor are they telling us not to bother fighting this thing because we can't win. Governments that reacted slowly, are seeing the same outcomes. Governments that reacted much more quickly have seen measurably better outcomes. It's going to be similar when it comes to reopening, and if countries are smart, they are closely watching the places opening back up to figure out what can change while keeping reinfection below 1. If your hospitals aren't overwhelmed, you can afford for that to be really close to 1 (and in some ways it might be better for it to stay near to 1).

But, with this virus one thing is *very* clear. You need to react decisively and early to get the best outcomes, and that's going to stay true when trying to reopen up as much as possible. You get a small outbreak somewhere, you want to immediately react. If you can do contact tracing and you can identify where it came from and who was exposed to it, then you can leave it there, but if you can't, then yeah, that area needs to lock down again. Waiting for the numbers to get higher makes zero sense.

 

[WhiteRabbitEXE]

5 new cases in a big city like Wuhan counts as an outbreak now?

Click to shrink...

If there's 5 cases, there's a lot more than 5 cases.

 

[SABO.]

Second wave is inevitable. In Australia, I think we're in a good place to deal with a second wave. We currently have enough tests kits for almost half our population...

Billionaire acquires 10 million coronavirus tests for Australia

www.9news.com.au

I think re-opening nightlife is a bit short sighted, but fortunately thats stage 3 for us in Australia and I don't think we'll move from stage 1 for a while based on the reaction to the announcement of easing restrictions.

 

[bevishead]

I've accepted that U.S. citizens will continue to spread the virus rapidly. People here in Texas outside of major cities just don't care it seems and want to live free or die. I wear my mask everywhere, but droves of people don't wear mask.

 

[PoppaBK]

when will people get it through their fucking skulls. this virus isn't going away until there's a vaccine and we've only mitigated more deaths and work for our health care workers is because of stay at home/isolation/social distancing

undoing all of that is just re-introducing same problems because it's far too wide spread at this point. there's no putting it back into the bottle now.

2nd wave was worse back in spanish flu epidemic and i fear it'll be the same here because everyone will think we've somehow beat it after two months.

essential workers lives don't matter

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Yeah, you can say what you want about the government's response but it's people just going crazy and acting like this is over that is the real issue (although the government messaging hasn't helped with this). The mass gatherings that occured during lockdowns was a pretty bad sign that people on mass wouldn't behave responsibly. We would be able to reopen most businesses with limited risk if mass gatherings didn't occur. Clothes stores, malls, hair salons etc could function with social distancing being observed - we've been doing it with grocery stores for months. But that all falls apart if half the people go to a crowded bar the night before.

 

[Ferrs]

I remember people saying the world would change after this pandemic, but every day when I go out and see people already acting like nothing happened it's clear it won't.

 

[Euphoria]

5 can turn into a few hundred in a snap.

Click to shrink...

It's as if we quickly forget back when Trump gloated about the US only had like 20 cases.

 

[elty]

It shows that even with the best contact tracing and testing, containment remains very hard.

And North America wants to reopen when they are not even near 10% ready in comparison.

 

[Deleted member 13101]

One person - one - spread the virus throughout a few communities, all on his own, and caused an outbreak in the New York City metro area. (And in that case, they knew basically everyone he had come into contact with, he was essentially contact-traced). Then one other person caused a separate outbreak in the New York City metro area, in Connecticut (they knew that kids were at the gathering where it was spread, which is why the schools closed down so quickly). Then more people began traveling in and out, without any contact tracing, and this virus is so contagious that it was everywhere in two weeks time.

We're supposed to reopen on the 20th here, meanwhile our hospital here is still using overflow sites. Whoever opens first (New York or Connecticut) is going to get the influx of people crossing state lines. Plus, after eight weeks of staying at home, seniors are going to use the restaurants and hair salons that are part of the first wave of openings. On a municipal level, it will only take one person on a leisurely excursion visiting shops and restaurants on main street to take out a town for two weeks or longer. If those businesses have to close again, even after putting in the expense of conforming to reopening guidelines, and after state budgets are finalized in June, that could be it.

 

[DeltaRed]

I remember people saying the world would change after this pandemic, but every day when I go out and see people already acting like nothing happened it's clear it won't.

Click to shrink...

On Saturday I went to the shop that is about 200 meters from my house and I passed literally about 25 people. The weather was nice but it just felt ridiculous.

 

[SABO.]

I remember people saying the world would change after this pandemic, but every day when I go out and see people already acting like nothing happened it's clear it won't.

Click to shrink...

Some members on this forum, the internet and in life really, will always make those claims during any world event despite history telling us otherwise.

 

[Altrich]

are we fucked forever?

srs: this is my biggest worry, once we ease off the lockdown then new cases popping up. We then just in a cycle of lockdowns as cases can never be zero and theres unidentified carriers everywhere

 

[Antiwhippy]

are we fucked forever?

srs: this is my biggest worry, once we ease off the lockdown then new cases popping up. We then just in a cycle of lockdowns as cases can never be zero and theres unidentified carriers everywhere

Click to shrink...

I mean sooner or later we'd reach herd immunity.

 

[Lethologica]

Not my photo but this impromptu "car show" was in a empty parking lot behind my house Saturday, we were still under a lock-down at the time. Police were called but instead of breaking it up, they started directing traffic; the entire area was a fucking mess with the street being backed up all night and people parking in front of my house, walking through my yard leaving trash everywhere and antagonizing my dog every time they walked by my fence. A couple people even tried to open my carport gate that leads to the street nearly breaking the lock. I had to get a bat and threaten them to get them to stop. I literally couldn't leave my house so many cars were blocking the street.

I had to listen to the bullshit of loud ass engines and drunk people from 6 p.m till' 2 a.m. My mother has a problem with her eardrum so that any noise low enough in frequency causes a rumbling in it that accompanies pain. After 8 hours of it she was in tears. Easily 1000 people showed up through out the evening.

 

[Commedieu]

Yes.

The issues are not that we should stay locked forever obviously. If we want a true recovery, where consumer confidence improves, we need to be prepared. Not the case as of this writing in the US and other countries. They are underestimating the secondary effects of the pandemic.

Click to shrink...

They underestimated the primary effects of the pandemic. This is amazing to witness. Nothing has changed with the virus beside it killing people consistently.

 

[PinkSpider]

Popped to the shops for cat food (I really should of booked a delivery slot weeks ago as there is a 3 week lag) and people look to have taken yesterdays press release from Boris as a fuck it, it's over. Last week we had queues and 5 in at a time, today in a small frozen freezer store 10 people down the first aisle walking back and forth and touching everything.

Isn't there an incubation period which kinda explains the drop in numbers. Work have pretty much said we're working from home forever as we write SQL and maintain reports.

 

[Deleted member 32822]

I don't think this means we should lose all hope, but for sure nightclubs and bars need to remain closed for much longer.

 

[NameUser]

When pigs fly.

Our government would rather the country burn to the ground than that.

Click to shrink...

Yup. Sadly this is a sample of what will happen here.

 

[darkwing]

Not my photo but this impromptu "car show" was in a empty parking lot behind my house Saturday, we were still under a lock-down at the time. Police were called but instead of breaking it up, they started directing traffic; the entire area was a fucking mess with the street being backed up all night and people parking in front of my house, walking through my yard leaving trash everywhere and antagonizing my dog every time the walked by my fence. A couple people even tried to open my carport gate that leads to the street nearly breaking the lock. I had to get a bat and threaten them to get them to stop. I literally couldn't leave my house so many cars were blocking the street.

I had to listen to the bullshit of loud ass engines and drunk people from 6 p.m till' 2 a.m. My mother has a problem with her eardrum so that any noise low enough in frequency causes a rumbling in it that accompanies pain. After 8 hours of it she was in tears. Easily 1000 people showed up through out the evening.

Click to shrink...

wth where is this

 

[Geist 6one7]

5 new cases in a big city like Wuhan counts as an outbreak now?

Click to shrink...

Let's say R0 in China is on the lowest end of the current estimates and is around 2. That could still lead to an escalation such as:
5>10>20>40>80>160>320>640>1280>oh shit we have a problem

 

[Lethologica]

wth where is this

Click to shrink...

This was in Independence, Mo. in an old K-mart parking lot.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

are we fucked forever?

srs: this is my biggest worry, once we ease off the lockdown then new cases popping up. We then just in a cycle of lockdowns as cases can never be zero and theres unidentified carriers everywhere

Click to shrink...

The optimal "new normal" (I really hate that phrase) is a low level of continual new cases that are managed with contact tracing and very localized quarantines. It is quite possible to avoid general state or national lockdowns—or lockdowns for months at a time, at least—if you actually get your testing and tracing acts in gear.

It doesn't have to be perfect. You trace 20 new cases and successfully quarantine another 20 cases before they're infectious but miss 10, you've still put a huge dent in the transmission rate.

 

[Z-Beat]

Exactly. But the buffoons in Congress and Administration just don't' get it.

Click to shrink...

They get it. They don't care. To assume that people choose these options out of pure ignorance or stupidity is dangerous thinking and allows you to be played.

 

[Trust]

If countries and communities can't rally around defeating a common enemy that is literally killing thousands daily then humanity is doomed.