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shark97

Banned
Nov 7, 2017
5,327
I'd like to know where your getting your averages from.

A quick google gives me like 8 games currently at, near, or over 100gb, up that to like 12-15 for those between 70-100gb it seems. There's at least 2500 PS4 games also, that's about 0.5% of the total games at or near 100gb.

Uncharted 4, Assassins Creed Odyssey, Witcher 3, these big games all hit around 50gb on PS4.

When they did the Wired article and showed off Spider-Man loading on the PS5 Cerny said that it had some assets duplicated nearly 400 times across the games data to aid in loading. With better compression ratios along with dedicated decompression hardware, and without the need to duplicate data across a disk anymore, I cant see us hitting near 200gb, let alone near 100gb on average.


With updates...I mainly played Destiny and it was 100+GB when I stopped. Every update adds more. MCC is another I'm familiar with, >100 with updates, COD 200 supposedly.

I just figure that's about the price you pay nowdays.

I'm talking big Triple AAA games of course the average will be lower as I noted. i think Streets of Rage 4 is 10GB. I'm talking about the heavy hitters. You are probably right I havent thought that much about it, but does your 2500 PS4 games include smaller download titles etc? Of course the average will be low then. That's like including the ACA Neo Geo games and the like.

It is true they say space could be saved by not duplicating assets with the faster IO. But I'd also expect assets to grow a lot next gen as well, where will the two meet? I dont know but my guess is at a much larger file size.

The UE5 demo on PS5, Jeff Cannatta on DLC podcast said a dev told him how big the file is, he was not allowed to say, but he basically hinted that it was absolutely huge. Like I'm guessing a terabyte or something wild the way he implied. All this was part of the discussion of the gow art director talking about 30 hours of such assets and how feasible it was.

The titles you mention are a bit old as well. Funny I played around with Crysis 3 recently since I rebuilt my PC and it's a right of passage, game is 14GB, that's literally like an indie game nowdays...

I could see starting next gen at 100, 150GB for the big hitters (some 60-80GB mostly last gen-ish titles too), and slowly going up from there. 200 average may not be right out of the box, and it's an extremely "from my ass" guesstimate, that still I would put some validity in personally.

Another tell is I haven't heard the likes of Cerny outright promising overall smaller game file sizes, that know of. Which they would be trumpeting if they could.
 
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platocplx

2020 Member Elect
Member
Oct 30, 2017
36,072
I'm gonna say 12 AAA next gen games while old gen def need an external. I think not having to duplicate game files will make games the same size max as a single blu-ray could hold.
 

Anth0ny

Member
Oct 25, 2017
46,832
those 8k textures ain't gonna be small :(

hard drive tech needs some rapid advancement. 1tb is waaaaaaaaaaaay too little in this day and age.

unless the whole con this gen is gonna be through selling additional storage. go full apple on our asses.
 

denx

Prophet of Truth
Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,321
This is one of the things I'm dreading the most about next gen. It took 15 hours for Forza Horizon 4 to download on my crappy internet, and that's without including the expansions (for reference, FH4 without the expansions is 75GB on PC).

I don't have data caps fortunately, but downloading modern AAA games is still pain, which is why I tend to keep big AAA games on my drive for a long time. I hope the advancements being made in next gen (less data dupñication, better compression, etc.) help offset somewhat the ballooning sizes of assets.
 
Oct 25, 2017
9,205
You have keep in mind that not everyone has access to unlimited data. I am fortunate enough to have no data caps so its more of a convenience thing. Deleting and downloading games becomes tedious. I have no room on my X1 and have to constantly delete games especially with gamepass. Downloading is even more of a pain with my pro as well.

They is what an external HDD is for. Store games you are not playing there. I really doubt anyone is playing more than 4 or 5 games at once. This is a made up issue.
 

toy_brain

Member
Nov 1, 2017
2,207
5* massive tent-pole AAA games.
Or as many small indie retro-styled games as your little heart could possibly desire.

*Number pulled entirely out of my ass.
 

CorrisD

Member
Oct 25, 2017
804
Most people? I totally disagree. What a complete ballache that will be. Red Dead 2 takes 2 hours to install off the discs. If you've got a slow net connection you're going to be waiting hours for the game to download again. What you're suggesting is going to be the worst option.

Also how much data duplication occurs now I this gen? I know it happened with discs because of seek times, but as games are ran off hard drives now is asset duplication still a thing?

There was a great topic on it recently with a video explaining how it works now and how it will work with games developed with SSDs in mind.

But yes, asset duplication is still a thing, Cerny recently mentioned that there was duplication of some assets up to 400 times across Spider-Man's game data. It happens with hard drives because they also have seek times, but hard drives compared to disc drives aren't some miracle of speed. The PS4 Blu-Ray reads at only 27MB/s, the PS3 was slower, and the base PS4 internal hard drive that games have to use as a base is 5400rpm which is I believe only 100MB/s.

Developers then have to take into account what data needs to be loaded when, they have 5GB of Ram to fill on those speeds. So common data is duplicated so it can be easily accessed regardless of what else the game is loading. The video explains it better, and it's a really interesting video if your interested in this stuff. But as he states, in currently development, and especially in regards to open world games, they have to assign data across the disk in mind with future gameplay so it can be loaded in correctly. Sometimes this means needing to predict what data the game needs 20-30minutes ahead of time.

youtu.be

Next Generation Consoles: The SSD Leap is the biggest? | Let's Talk

In the next of our series discussing the next generation leaps we hit the storage solutions and this is likely going to be the biggest impact, for both conso...


With updates...I mainly played Destiny and it was 100+GB when I stopped. Every update adds more. MCC is another I'm familiar with, >100 with updates, COD 200 supposedly.

I just figure that's about the price you pay nowdays.

I'm talking big Triple AAA games of course the average will be lower as I noted. i think Streets of Rage 4 is 10GB. I'm talking about the heavy hitters. You are p[probably right I havent thought that much about it, but does your 2500 PS4 games include smaller download titles etc? Of course the average will be low then. That's like including the ACA Neo Geo games and the like.

It is true they say space could be saved by not duplicating assets with the faster IO. But I'd also expect assets to grow a lot next gen as well, where will the two meet? I dont know but my guess is at a much larger file size.

The UE5 demo on PS5, Jeff Cannatta on DLC podcast said a dev told him how big the file is, he was not allowed to say, but he basically hinted that it was absolutely huge. Like I'm guessing a terabyte or something wild the way he implied. All this was part of the discussion of the gow art director talking about 30 hours of such assets and how feasible it was.

I included all games because you talked about average size of games. You can't talk about average of all current generation video games and then pick and choose which make up that average. We've had 6 years of games of various different sizes, yes some have ballooned up to near 200GB, some 100GB, but that is a tiny percentage of games released. Most of the big AAA games hit around 50GB, some less, some more especially after patches, that's what most of Sony's own exclusives would hit and stop at.

UE5 while beautiful and a great hint of things to come isn't a good indicator of what will happen with games because it is designed to be a tech demo. It's there to look and be the best. It was a small slice of to show off their technology, it's using the best assets possible at sizes that we are unlikely to see when it comes to games because they will be compressed as far as modern tech allows them, so the games can then be sold physically on discs and downloaded.

I'm not saying it isn't impossible, and we aren't going to really know for 6 months or so, but the average game size next generation is unlikely to average 200gb any time soon. We've only had 1 game hit that now, a game designed around and to run on all the inefficiencies of 6year+ old technology.
 

dose

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,456
There was a great topic on it recently with a video explaining how it works now and how it will work with games developed with SSDs in mind.

But yes, asset duplication is still a thing, Cerny recently mentioned that there was duplication of some assets up to 400 times across Spider-Man's game data. It happens with hard drives because they also have seek times, but hard drives compared to disc drives aren't some miracle of speed. The PS4 Blu-Ray reads at only 27MB/s, the PS3 was slower, and the base PS4 internal hard drive that games have to use as a base is 5400rpm which is I believe only 100MB/s.

Developers then have to take into account what data needs to be loaded when, they have 5GB of Ram to fill on those speeds. So common data is duplicated so it can be easily accessed regardless of what else the game is loading. The video explains it better, and it's a really interesting video if your interested in this stuff. But as he states, in currently development, and especially in regards to open world games, they have to assign data across the disk in mind with future gameplay so it can be loaded in correctly. Sometimes this means needing to predict what data the game needs 20-30minutes ahead of time.

youtu.be

Next Generation Consoles: The SSD Leap is the biggest? | Let's Talk

In the next of our series discussing the next generation leaps we hit the storage solutions and this is likely going to be the biggest impact, for both conso...
Interesting stuff. Cheers for the link, I'll check it out.
 

sun-drop

Banned
Aug 21, 2018
1,121
wellington , new zealand
I think one of the earliest ps5 news, might have been around the time of that spider Man video...was them talking about how next gen games will be able to be broken up into chunks more so than before...i saw that as a big time hint we will be expected to manage what we have on SSD and what we have sitting on external HDDs or in the store cloud.. or blueray
 

Hawk269

Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,043
It also depends on how much of that SSD space is reserved for system use. I am sure both will have at pretty good amount reserved for devs to use, so it is not like we are getting the reported sizes as "user reserved space". I know that the first thing I am getting my Series X is one of those expansion SSD to increase the storage space. I hope they make a 2TB version soon. For the PS5 will need to wait to see what is offered before expanding it's storage.
 

Lunchbox

ƃuoɹʍ ʇᴉ ƃuᴉop ǝɹ,noʎ 'ʇɥƃᴉɹ sᴉɥʇ pɐǝɹ noʎ ɟI
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,548
Rip City
That's my biggest hurdle with buying new hardware the storage isn't enough.
 

MrMegaPhoenix

Member
Oct 27, 2017
366
I'm worried about this for a fighting game and sports game perspective.

Both are much more casual friendly, but think how much space just one single year sports releases would take up. Then add on another tekken, soul caliber, dead or alive and mortals kombat. That would give you very little space left for one AAA game.

Add in racing and some puzzle games and it's just harder. Online multiplayer focused games and extremely difficult
 

Mathieran

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,858
Don't know yet. They're saying that we can just download parts that we want and that due to the SSD, a lot of assets only have be on the disc once instead of many times. So it's possible games won't be a lot bigger, but we don't know yet.
 

TheTyrantShow

Alt Account
Banned
Apr 23, 2020
255
I assume they'll be able to compress them more next gen - especially given the higher VRAM

totally guessing here cause who needs to shit on SSDs all the time
 

Ruin

Banned
Oct 14, 2018
208
related
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nihilence

nøthing but silence
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
15,906
From 'quake area to big OH.
I posed this question, but more narrow on Xbox.
Don't forget about the usable space out of the box, and new techniques to hopefully efficiently pack data.

www.resetera.com

How many games will fit in stock Xbox Series X? (usable space)

Spec list 1tb drive for storage. I'm not familiar with ssd and nvme m.2, but in general a 1tb disc has roughly 931gb. When Xbox One X launched a 1tb drive has 780gb available. With how large games are now, how many games will fit? With features like quick resumes, how much of that disc will be...
 

JasoNsider

Developer
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
2,144
Canada
I'd say 3 - 4 on PS5 and 4 - 5 on XBSX.

Yeah, maybe at it's worst near the end of the gen (only installing massive AAA games), this is what it would be like using only the drives shipped on the OG PS5 and XBSX.

Again, we're just talking about the main drives. You could probably just keep a huge HDD with game data nearby and swap things in and out of the "fridge" as necessary.
 

Calverz

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,586
I'm getting worried that we wont have enough storage space on these new consoles. Below are the storage sizes for the Series X and PlayStation 5 respectively:

Series X - 1 TB
PS5 - 825 GB

With games coming in around 50-100GB, will we be able to have more than 7 games on these consoles? I'm not super tech savvy when it comes to hardware but will there be new compression formats that will allow games to take up less space or something? I dont see how the storage space will last us a year let alone YEARS.
Well look at like this. They will only store the new games. Not your old ones. And currently modern warfare on pc is around 206gb. So, potentially around 5. Maybe 6.
 

Minsc

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,119
The solution is to stop playing AAA and console exclusive games, and start playing indie games. Then you can fit 100s and 100s. Some indie games are under 1GB, perhaps even closer to 100MBs.
 

Minsc

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,119
Well look at like this. They will only store the new games. Not your old ones. And currently modern warfare on pc is around 206gb. So, potentially around 5. Maybe 6.

Don't forget people say the 825GB number on the PS5 doesn't give the actual usable size (you lose space in formatting the drive, and the OS itself), so you'll have somewhere in the upper 700s when you plug it in fresh. And I think it's not out of the question for games to approach or exceed 300GBs down the road.

What I wonder is if the patching system will be bettter, where if you are playing a 350GB game, and it needs to update, if you need over 350GBs of free space to update it?
 

Deleted member 21709

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
23,310
I don't think anyone is expecting you to rely on just the 1TB of fast internal storage. We'll be using a larger, slower external drive to transfer games from.

PS5 better allow you to transfer games from drives. Like Xbox.
 

Kaguya

Member
Jun 19, 2018
6,404
I'd assume as many as current gen ones. Data required is getting larger, but storage space is bigger with better compression and less need for duplication.
 

NoWayOut

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,073
The SP part of the next COD will easily fit in the stock SSD, but if you want the MP and BR mode as well you will need to get the the additional expanded storage ;)
 

Siresly

Prophet of Regret
Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,570
Because of mathscience, the drives will start with 768GB and 931GB of space.
Let's assume 100GB will be reserved for system functions. Leaving us with 668GB and 831GB of usable space.
I will pull out of my ass a guess at an average size of 104.38GB per AAA game. So around 6.4 of those on the PS5 and 8 on the Series X.

One might feel the need to get an external drive eventually.

HDD's seem to tap out at around 120MB/s. 104.38GB would take about 14.5 minutes.
2.5" SSD's can go over 500MB/s. 104.38GB would take about 3.5 minutes.
But currently you can get an HDD for a fourth of the price and with twice the storage, or with four times the storage at half the price, so...
 
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Minsc

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,119
if no data dupe is needed, as advertised, then game sizes will go down next gen

Texture sizes will quadruple though (targeting 4k or 8k vs 1080p), everything is going to be so much more detailed and all the environments will be much more complex, so I don't think sizes will go down.
 
OP
OP
Domcorleone

Domcorleone

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,191
Texture sizes will quadruple though (targeting 4k or 8k vs 1080p), everything is going to be so much more detailed and all the environments will be much more complex, so I don't think sizes will go down.

Yea I don't see the sizes going down, they are going to pump more textures into these games. I won't be surprised if 100Gb file sizes are the norm
 

jroc74

Member
Oct 27, 2017
28,992
I'm just going to expect them to be 100GB max for now. With that,

9 for Series X, 7 for PS5.

Hopefully with no need for alot of duplicate assets, we could see it decrease. Didnt some current gen games get updated recently and the final size was smaller? Days Gone and some Call of Duty game IIRC.
 

mario_O

Member
Nov 15, 2017
2,755
Next gen AAA games will probably weight between 100Gb and 200Gb. So between 5-10 AAA games.
 

jroc74

Member
Oct 27, 2017
28,992
Texture sizes will quadruple though (targeting 4k or 8k vs 1080p), everything is going to be so much more detailed and all the environments will be much more complex, so I don't think sizes will go down.
Even with that, I dont see games ballooning in size. Not every game will shoot for that much detail (8K).

many games already use high res textures on x and pro
Yup. Now I'm imaging those textures not having to have extras, alot of extras due to SSD streaming. That combined with not alot of duplicates, I think we could be pleasantly surprised by the file sizes.

Now, would targeting a lower res then doing up scaling, checker boarding, dynamic res help with file sizes?
 

DavidDesu

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
5,718
Glasgow, Scotland
Just had a thought. If we still have a similar UI experience on PS5 I hope that they keep the tile available on the home screen for games you have offloaded to your external drive, and with one click the console can start transferring it back over to the console SSD. (Think how disc games have a tile and when you click it just says "please insert game disc").

Im personally investing in an external SSD where I'll keep any PS4 games to run directly off, and offload PS5 games I'm not currently playing. The transfer times are similar to loading up RDR2 today so it's not a big deal (30minute or so transfers from an HDD is a lot less palatable but if you're on a budget you can get tons of storage cheaply so long as you can handle the waiting).
 

Trup1aya

Literally a train safety expert
Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,328
Texture sizes will quadruple though (targeting 4k or 8k vs 1080p), everything is going to be so much more detailed and all the environments will be much more complex, so I don't think sizes will go down.

But wouldnt there will be fewer texture files altogether if devs dont have to load multiple reduced detail versions of their assets and bake lighting ?