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Trickster

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,533
I'm a huge Borderlands fan, but that really doesn't mean anything. Borderlands 3 comes after Borderlands 2 managed to sell and grow the fanbase of the series for 7 years. I would sure as heck hope that the Borderlands 3 launch numbers would reflect that fact.
 

Khrol

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,179
Of course it's a Randy tweet, lol.

I mean, I'm sure it's doing ok. It's a huge franchise. God I wish he wasn't associated with it or I'd be much more interested in playing this one.

Randy had to come out with some vaguely positive tweet after the backlash he received for going EGS exclusive. He got raked over the coals for days on Twitter for that.
 

Nome

Designer / Self-requested ban
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
3,312
NYC
The Steam audience is radically different between 2012 and 2019. If Monster Hunter, a game with zero presence on PC until 2018, can blow the doors off of everything just imagine what Borderlands 3 could have done.
MHW did well precisely because it has no prior PC presence. That lack of presence was literally the pitch and gamble for Dauntless.

Anyway, I don't think anyone would dispute that BL3 would have higher launch sales on Steam. I'm more curious personally if the EGS deal and cut resulted in lesser sales bringing higher revenue for Gearbox/2K.
 

Khrol

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,179
I'm a huge Borderlands fan, but that really doesn't mean anything. Borderlands 3 comes after Borderlands 2 managed to sell and grow the fanbase of the series for 7 years. I would sure as heck hope that the Borderlands 3 launch numbers would reflect that fact.

Yeah I think people underestimate just how big the Borderlands audience got after Borderlands 2 had time to mature. The franchise turned into a juggernaut slowly over time.
 

Madjoki

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,230
That's concurrent numbers, that likely means over 800k in day one sales, and I'm being super conservative on that

To compare peak numbers:

Monster Hunter World: 334k (this game sold huge numbers)
GTA V: 364k (same)
Greedfall: 16k (not a fair comparison, but just shows the expectations for number differences)

GTA V likely did way more than that, since steam charts would only show copies bought from Steam.
 

rumbling

Member
Mar 22, 2018
228
Yeah, it's a 240k CCU and here's the current Steam top10 concurrent users (CCU) chart for comparison

QMsTt78.jpg


Compared to that BL3 having only 240k remains "okay'ish" because it should have otherwise easily reached a range of 500k++ CCU
So going by that chart BL3 numbers would put it in top 5 full priced games ever on Steam? And thats okayish? Nah, if 240k concurrent is correct - this is already a huge success on PC.
 

Duxxy3

Member
Oct 27, 2017
21,695
USA
I'm trying to figure out how to fudge those numbers, but I'm coming up empty. That's pretty damn good.
 

Wumbo64

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
327
The Steam audience is radically different between 2012 and 2019. If Monster Hunter, a game with zero presence on PC until 2018, can blow the doors off of everything just imagine what Borderlands 3 could have done.

Given how democratically Valve handles game presence, probably could have been pretty bad actually. Anime visual novel games, DOTA/CSGO updates, and various breakout indie games likely would have split all the marquee space.

Meanwhile Borderlands has had top shelf billing on EGS for months and 2K gets to keep an extra 18% of every sale. Plus any sales they potentially lost out on are likely covered with interest by Epic's exclusivity deal. It's a smart play.

Oh, and I wouldn't want to try and sell Borderlands in this exact landscape. Gears 5 just released last week, Uplay plus just went live, WoW is having a resurgence, and just trying to poke your head above the masses playing other games with guns has to be a nightmare. Fortnite, CSGO, Siege.. etc
 

Metroidvania

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,768
Anyway, I don't think anyone would dispute that BL3 would have higher launch sales on Steam. I'm more curious personally if the EGS deal and cut resulted in lesser sales bringing higher revenue for Gearbox/2K.

They got paid up-front for XYZ # of sales, so....I imagine that given Epic likely paid out the nose, they're doing just fine, even if the numbers would (at least) be 1.25-1.5x that on Steam, if not IMO higher.

It really depends on how many advance sales Epic paid for, at this point - even though if it hasn't already, I'm sure they'll get past that cutoff before the exclusivity window ends.

I'm trying to figure out how to fudge those numbers, but I'm coming up empty. That's pretty damn good.

Not that I disagree, but...then why bother obfuscating?

It's still good/great #'s, but why go out of your way to hide the specifics? Or hell, even round to the nearest 10/50k.
 

Duxxy3

Member
Oct 27, 2017
21,695
USA
They got paid up-front for XYZ # of sales, so....I imagine that given Epic likely paid out the nose, they're doing just fine, even if the numbers would (at least) be 1.25-1.5x that on Steam, if not IMO higher.

It really depends on how many advance sales Epic paid for, at this point - even though if it hasn't already, I'm sure they'll get past that cutoff before the exclusivity window ends.



Not that I disagree, but...then why bother obfuscating?

It's still good/great #'s, but why go out of your way to hide the specifics? Or hell, even round to the nearest 10/50k.

Most of the EGS sales announcement have been a little bit... sneaky. This doesn't appear to be sneaky at all and I'm a little surprised.
 

Wumbo64

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
327
Honestly can't tell if this is sarcasm

No, I am just being honest. Borderlands 3 would not have top billing on Steam for a sustained period of time. Things that capture the PC zeitgeist emerge on Steam and get their 5 minutes of fame constantly. Every time a major AAA game releases on Steam, no matter how successful, disappears inside a week.
 

Nome

Designer / Self-requested ban
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
3,312
NYC
They got paid up-front for XYZ # of sales, so....I imagine that given Epic likely paid out the nose, they're doing just fine, even if the numbers would (at least) be 1.25-1.5x that on Steam, if not IMO higher.

It really depends on how many advance sales Epic paid for, at this point - even though if it hasn't already, I'm sure they'll get past that cutoff before the exclusivity window ends.
Yeah, that's kind of what I figure.
If 2K/GB is pulling in good money regardless of sales, then they're satisfied.
If Epic loses money but manages to draw in a significant portion of new users into their ecosystem (a few hundred thousand new purchase conversions is huge) it's also a win for them.

I think this is a situation where both parties can be happy with "ok" performance relative to how it could've done on Steam.
 

Stop It

Bad Cat
Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,350
Why do gamers demand sales figures? Imagine that in any other media and it seems crazy.

Band: We're really happy with how many people are streaming our new album!

Fan: if you are happy with the numbers you would release them not obscure them

You were saying?

The UK charts often mention stream figures too.

Of course we used to get sales figures for major markets in games too but the industry push back was too much.

Anyway, BL3 looks pretty great so people should be playing it. Now if someone at MS could give them a load of cash to put it on Game Pass in like 6 months, they'll be nice.
 
Oct 27, 2017
557
I'd like to see numbers, but congrats on the team anyways. I'll get it once it arrives on Steam, hopefully with the first DLC already out.
 

Dogenzaka

Alt Account
Banned
Apr 20, 2019
803
That's awesome, the game has been really great so far. I hope it does even better when released outside of EGS.
 
Jan 4, 2018
4,018
Combine this with the Epic money up front and the fact that releasing on Steam in six months will basically be a second launch week and it's easy to see why a lot of games are going this way. They get two launch weeks across the year and Epic takes the blame, all while fronting them a check.
 

Deleted member 9100

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
3,076
240k really only sounds okay'ish for a Borderlands3 release in 2019


Edit: just for comparison - 240k concurrent players is way less than games like Payday2 had on Steam

Per steam charts, Payday 2's all time peak concurrent is 247k. So that's not true at all.

240kish concurrent is a good launch.
 

MrBob

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,668
Combine this with the Epic money up front and the fact that releasing on Steam in six months will basically be a second launch week and it's easy to see why a lot of games are going this way. They get two launch weeks across the year and Epic takes the blame, all while fronting them a check.
Maybe? BL3 will be coming out on Steam around the same time as Cyber Punk 2077 is coming out.
 

¡ B 0 0 P !

Banned
Apr 4, 2019
2,915
Greater Toronto Area
Given how democratically Valve handles game presence, probably could have been pretty bad actually. Anime visual novel games, DOTA/CSGO updates, and various breakout indie games likely would have split all the marquee space.

Hold up. I thought Steam was the big baddie because indie games have trouble getting the attention AAA games on Steam get. Hence the justification for Epic Exclusivity. But now apparently it's the indies who are the ones holding AAA games back? What?
 

riotous

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,323
Seattle
So probably at least 2 million sales? I dunno though kinda hard to calculate.

I bought the game and have been busy only popped it on for 10 minutes yesterday to check frame rate.
 

Mecha Meister

Next-Gen Guru
Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,801
United Kingdom
Ok numbers?

PIIZaxF.png


njG01yR.png


123.6K x2 = 247K that would put it roughly in the top ten on Steam. I would say that's pretty good, considering huge game launches like Grand Theft Auto V and Fallout 4 were in the 360-470K range of peak players. However, these games have had their records for years and I've noticed that more recent games are pushing numbers close to this over the years such as Monster Hunter World and Hitman 2.
Monster Hunter World also released around 6-7 months after the console version (GTA V was released 18 months after the console version) and was the debut of the series on PC.
(Unfortunately dismissing Kathy Rain and Kholat due to being given away for free and alleged trading card farming inflating the player numbers)

However, that 123K record for Borderlands 2 was 7 years ago, and to my knowledge that would have been one of the highest peak player counts seen on Steam at that point in time.
7 years on, PC Gaming has become significantly larger, so its not entirely certain how much potential a highly anticipated title such as Borderlands 3 could have really had. Perhaps the game could have done better on Steam, especially since the PC Gaming community appear to be pretty divided over the Epic Games Exclusivity stuff going on, but those player numbers sound pretty good for a game shrouded in controversy to say the least.

We're also kind of just guessing player numbers at this point if you expected it to do significantly better, due to this being something we'll never really know. (Unless the Steam release hits these numbers).

Perhaps it could have exceeded GTA V's and Fallout 4's numbers, and there's still time for the game to do this now as it's the weekend and the game just came out. Everyone will want to get a piece of this over the coming days.

Edit - Further expanded post and improved clarity.
 
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Kyougar

Cute Animal Whisperer
Member
Nov 3, 2017
9,354
I find it always interesting, that Sales numbers are always double, triple, quadruple, etc.
But never 70% or 120% or 160%
 

Wumbo64

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
327
Hold up. I thought Steam was the big baddie because indie games have trouble getting the attention AAA games on Steam get. Hence the justification for Epic Exclusivity. But now apparently it's the indies who are the ones holding AAA games back? What?

This is simply about marquee space. No one entity on Steam ever gets the limelight for very long. So you could spend 100 million on an outside marketing campaign for your game, but Valve isn't going to change how it's algorithm displays content. If you spent all that money, then a random game of any type came out and some streamer played it and got attention, it can steal limelight from these calculated juggernauts.

This is another thing any game released on Steam has to contend with, and it is potentially more damaging for games that have traditional large-scale marketing budgets.
 

Ganado

▲ Legend ▲
Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,176
Great! But what does this really mean..? Can we finally say that yesterday was the day that broke Steams monopoly or does it still stand? Does this mean that, in reality, the devs were at fault for letting the Steam bogeyman grow even though it had no power at all over consumers, people buy games where ever they are sold?
 

¡ B 0 0 P !

Banned
Apr 4, 2019
2,915
Greater Toronto Area
This is simply about marquee space. No one entity on Steam ever gets the limelight for very long. So you could spend 100 million on an outside marketing campaign for your game, but Valve isn't going to change how it's algorithm displays content. If you spent all that money, then a random game of any type came out and some streamer played it and got attention, it can steal limelight from these calculated juggernauts.

This is another thing any game released on Steam has to contend with, and it is potentially more damaging for games that have traditional large-scale marketing budgets.

Your marketing and game must not be that good if all it takes is one streamer to highlight an indie game to drag down your sales expectations.
 

Deleted member 42

user requested account closure
Banned
Oct 24, 2017
16,939
If your point of comparison for games doing better than Borderlands 3 are:

Grand Theft Auto V
Monster Hunter World

Then it's doing pretty darn well.
 

Dog of Bork

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,988
Texas
Sounds like it did pretty well for them. I'll get to start new characters when my steam only friends pick up the game. Gotta figure out how to get my save from my laptop to my desktop once I'm done with this business trip (unless there's cloud saves I don't know about).
 
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Deleted member 9100

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
3,076
Imagine thinking that a multi million seller, like borderlands is on PC since 10 years, doing less than MHW CCU , a series with ZERO presence on the platform since forever, is amazing. In 2012 steam users were less than half of what they are now, 2012 CCU on steam globally were 5 mlns, we are at now 16-18 mlns.

So, yeah, its not amazing, maybe stop believing everything without anazlying vague stuff like "abous as twice" or "did great/amazing" without numbers.

This is probably the worst take in the thread. Monster hunter was a huge hit. 240k concurrent would put BL3 in the top 10 concurrent of all time on steam. Doing that on EGS is even more impressive.

Using your logic, let's compare MHW and PUBG. MHW had peak concurrent players that were 1/10 of the peak of PUBG, a $30 game from a first time developer in a new genre that could be played as a free mod in other games. Capcom must be so disappointed with those numbers!
 

Plum

Member
May 31, 2018
17,278
bought it and having a blast. Dont get the entire egs hate.

This has nothing to do with the 'EGS Hate', and if you think it is then you're intentionally misrepresenting what the 'EGS hate' actually is.

Frankly the fact that sales numbers are now being used as ammunition against the other side shows that console wars have officially come over to PC in the form of Steam vs. EGS nonsense. Just like with console wars that shit's never going to end, isn't it?
 

Madjoki

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,230
This is simply about marquee space. No one entity on Steam ever gets the limelight for very long. So you could spend 100 million on an outside marketing campaign for your game, but Valve isn't going to change how it's algorithm displays content. If you spent all that money, then a random game of any type came out and some streamer played it and got attention, it can steal limelight from these calculated juggernauts.

This is another thing any game released on Steam has to contend with, and it is potentially more damaging for games that have traditional large-scale marketing budgets.

Steam does front page takeovers and news popups from client for big games.

Someone mentioned earlier that BL3 will release on Steam around the time Cyberpunk 2077 drops. Good luck with that Randy. lol

And hype will most likely be way over.
 

Delusibeta

Prophet of Truth
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
5,648
Ultimately, stating that AAA games can survive outside of Steam is not exactly news - see the continued existence of Origin, for example.

The questions here is how well the PC versions of Borderlands 3 did relative to the console versions, and whether any new customers to the Epic Games Store will buy anything else in the future (or if they're all immediately going to go back to Steam/Fortnite etc). The latter question is particularly important, as it would indicate whether there's any hope for Epic to recover the megabucks they dumped on 2K for exclusivity in the future.
 

Wumbo64

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
327
Your marketing and game must not be that good if all it takes is one streamer to highlight an indie game to drag down your sales expectations.

Fine. I wasn't literal enough. Clearly it would take a large stir to steal away existing attention. The market still has more options than it did then. We also have smaller games doing better with virtually no traditional market budget than ever before. Streamers and social media buzz are the reasons for this.

Steam does front page takeovers and news popups from client for big games.

Fair point. However, I have never seen this last for periods longer than maybe a few days at the absolute most. Valve has too many games coming out that they can afford to keep you at the front of the line.
 

riotous

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,323
Seattle
Ultimately, stating that AAA games can survive outside of Steam is not exactly news - see the continued existence of Origin, for example.

The questions here is how well the PC versions of Borderlands 3 did relative to the console versions, and whether any new customers to the Epic Games Store will buy anything else in the future (or if they're all immediately going to go back to Steam/Fortnite etc).
Yeah I really think EGS is doing it wrong.

They are getting people to download their client, but there's little logic to suggest anyone would buy much outside of exclusives.

Their store sucks, lacks features, etc. They should have built up a competent experience first and then gone after exclusives or offered something unique.

I'm not hateful towards EGS it's a minor annoyance to me, and I do think for competing on AAA game sales exclusivity is probably pretty key (other successful stores like GoG have their own unique aspects but beyond that only Pub exclusive stores are successful) but they could do this for another year and then stop buying exclusives and who is going to chose them over Steam?

They need to encourage devs taking that bigger cut to make their games less expensive or something.
 

Conkerkid11

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
13,947
Why do gamers demand sales figures? Imagine that in any other media and it seems crazy.

Band: We're really happy with how many people are streaming our new album!

Fan: if you are happy with the numbers you would release them not obscure them
This is a weird post, considering this data is public. Spotify lists numbers. YouTube lists numbers. I'm sure plenty of other services list numbers.

We also have box office grosses for movies.

People just want to know how EGS is doing and whether or not their boycott added up to anything.

Also, while it might not matter for something like Borderlands 3 without competitive matchmaking, people need to be capable of seeing population counts for particular games to see if they'll even be playable if they buy it, something only Steam offers, and something Randy is literally relying on for this Tweet.
 

Deleted member 42

user requested account closure
Banned
Oct 24, 2017
16,939
This is a weird post, considering this data is public. Spotify lists numbers. YouTube lists numbers. I'm sure plenty of other services list numbers.

We also have box office grosses for movies.

We get varying information based on industry. Like we know the cut for most game platforms - we have no idea about the profit cost for movies, especially by region.

We also don't know the margins Spotify/etc has. We don't get viewer numbers for Netflix, that's all private. We know very little when it comes to book sales.

Like most entertainment industries, they mainly provide numbers when they want to.
 

Conkerkid11

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
13,947
We get varying information based on industry. Like we know the cut for most game platforms - we have no idea about the profit cost for movies, especially by region.

We also don't know the margins Spotify/etc has. We don't get viewer numbers for Netflix, that's all private. We know very little when it comes to book sales.

Like most entertainment industries, they mainly provide numbers when they want to.
I'd really like to see Netflix numbers too. The number of followers some of the actors from something like Stranger Things have is insane.

It just seems weird for something like EGS in particular, when it's largely assisted by the man who gave us Steam numbers, is directly competing with Steam, doesn't even have population numbers, and now we have Randy comparing it to a number we only have due to a feature only Steam has.
 

Madjoki

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,230
Fair point. However, I have never seen this last for periods longer than maybe a few days at the absolute most. Valve has too many games coming out that they can afford to keep you at the front of the line.

There's no queue, most of times that spot doesn't exist. Valve most likely keeping games as long as it's effective (people buying or wishlisting game).
Simply because, It's in Valve interest as well to sell as many copies.
 

Dalik

Member
Nov 1, 2017
3,528
This is probably the worst take in the thread. Monster hunter was a huge hit. 240k concurrent would put BL3 in the top 10 concurrent of all time on steam. Doing that on EGS is even more impressive.

Using your logic, let's compare MHW and PUBG. MHW had peak concurrent players that were 1/10 of the peak of PUBG, a $30 game from a first time developer in a new genre that could be played as a free mod in other games. Capcom must be so disappointed with those numbers!
Ah yeah, nice troll comparing a 60€ game with a 25€ one lmao. Also pubg is not first game from a new dev, it's literally the same people who did dayZ mod from arma, which is basically almost exactly the same game, that already had a huge community. And arma was not free. (not even dayz was). They also went to make h1z1, but I guess they are first time dev to your eyes.
.
 
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Delusibeta

Prophet of Truth
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
5,648
We also don't know the margins Spotify/etc has.
Spotify is weird, in that we know the high level of how it's supposed to work (it takes a pot of all the subscription fees, skims off 30% and then distributes the rest to the artists in proportion to their popularity), but we don't publicly know how that converts to an arbitrary artist's bank account. We are also assuming that there isn't a lump sum given to the Big Three labels before the artists get anything, but that is an assumption that I'll freely admit is probably incorrect.

Also, I do found it funny when Apple's claims that Apple Music "would be better for artists" turned out to be "we only charge 25%".