PS5 Speculation |OT12| - Aw hell, Transistor's running this again?

twistedbasis · Mar 16, 2020

Meh, called it last wednesday :) https://www.resetera.com/threads/ps...staff-post-read-it-mmkay.173318/post-29808846

Though in all honesty, github was probably accurate as of mid last year and up until very recently. Once platform holders have a better grip on yields and what real silicon can actually do (remember xsex has been in homes since November) adjustments for perf and yields will always be made.

Doctor Avatar · Mar 16, 2020

nelsonroyale said:
I mean if you want to be cynical, he could have just taken the usual 12tf speculated on, added 0.1 to make it look more precise and back calculated from there. I know that also seems unlikely, but if anything people seem to go a long way to post drivel. Personally, I haven't seen anything compelling to have an idea of where PS5 will go yet. Still, there does seem to be far more talk that the systems will be close, and there seems some issues with github stuff lining up now.

Getting three variables - TF, CU count and clock speed completely spot on to decimal points of accuracy is pretty lucky.
And he also stated it was RDNA2 when nobody else believed that. Also correct.

I think it's far more likely he knows something than he doesn't given all of that. But he may just have been ridiculously lucky, I guess we will see.

Cyborg · Mar 16, 2020

I these times we need to be together not divided.

anexanhume · Mar 16, 2020

sangreal said:
if you guess the tf and cu count (both of which were otherwise rumored though not necessarily together) the gpu clock is just a math problem

I wish I could count on one hand the number of leaks that fail that math test.

ody · Mar 16, 2020

Doctor Avatar said:
Do find it a bit weird that members apparently only care about the specs on one console though.

is it though

Turbowaffles · Mar 16, 2020

So what are the latest rumors of PS5 power? I hope it's inline with XB1SX for multi plats.

ManOfWar · Mar 16, 2020

Doctor Avatar said:
Maybe he was just incredibly lucky.

He also said Bluepoint were making a Castlevania game didn't he? Now we've got all the rumours of Sony buying the Castlevania licence.

Again I'm not saying he's definitely right, but it's definitely something to keep in the mix. He's gotten a LOT of stuff seemingly right.

It's probably a lucky guess. It would be different if he had said anything about the difference in memmory bandwidth. That would be unusual and all the sofa engineers posing as specialists would have laughed at.

dom · Mar 16, 2020

AegonSnake said:
he also refused to get verified. sent a mod a photoshopped photo and then bailed without ever defending himself.

i think its just a lucky guess. anyone with a basic knowledge of tflops can come up with 12 tflops with different configurations. he likely chose 52 cu because no one else was going with it at the time.

I was thinking it could be 52 active with 4 disabled to help with yields. Never said anything here though. Then all you have to do is work backwards to get just over 12TFs. So you take 1000*12/(52*64*2) and round up a decimal to get 1.81

Doctor Avatar · Mar 16, 2020

Turbowaffles said:
So what are the latest rumors of PS5 power? I hope it's inline with XB1SX for multi plats.

Two schools of thought.

Worst timeline 8-9.2TF
Best timeline 11-13.3TF

Nayeon · Mar 16, 2020

Doctor Avatar said:
Me too tbh... We've lost half the community.

Nothing of value was lost. All we lost are people who refused to acknowledge hat Github is completely wrong. I mean, look at Xbox, nothing of it was true yet they somehow thought it's still spot on for PS5. All they did was project their console bias. I'm glad these people are gone. Finally we can have a civilized discussion and not have that pendulum swing from 7 to 13 TF on a daily basis. Hell, we got to number below XOX at some point last week. Truly, this thread has become so much better ever since.

MykhellMikado · Mar 16, 2020

doncabesa said:
well to be fair that demo was made for the ssd, and sod2 is just from raw speed and not using the new i/o fully. a patched version of sod2 would theoretically load far faster than the un-patched one. Also that demo is just quickly loading in a world, not a fully realized/published title running in a cross-gen environment. It is not an accurate thing to compare these two pieces of software at all.

the Spider-Man demo is impressive because of the seek times. Yes the raw bandwidth is important but unless you think they remade the game from the ground up to be linear, it's is raw seek times in an open world gam on display.

That was the take away people should have left with.

Turbowaffles · Mar 16, 2020

Doctor Avatar said:
Two schools of thought.

Worst timeline 8-9.2TF
Best timeline 11-13.3TF

Gah, I really hope 9.2TF is wrong. I would be okay with 11, but would prefer 12. I don't really see 13 happening lol.

What about RAM?

Deleted member 30077 · Mar 16, 2020

modiz said:
So in the gears 5 demo they said the game uses "screen space real time global illumination", how does ray traced screen space solution work? or is this not ray tracing?

Screen space means it's not raytraced. I think they're just talking about SSGI: https://docs.unrealengine.com/en-US...dows/ScreenSpaceGlobalIllumination/index.html

Edit: maybe they're using raytracing to get a more accurate rasterized result?

N.Domixis · Mar 16, 2020

Nayeon said:
Nothing of value was lost. All we lost are people who refused to acknowledge hat Github is completely wrong. I mean, look at Xbox, nothing of it was true yet they somehow thought it's still spot on for PS5. All they did was project their console bias. I'm glad these people are gone. Finally we can have a civilized discussion and not have that pendulum swing from 7 to 13 TF on a daily basis. Hell, we got to number below XOX at some point last week. Truly, this thread has become so much better ever since.

I agree, this thread is much much better now.

Pryme · Mar 16, 2020

thuway said:
Nah fam. If I give you the winning lotto numbers - all should be forgiven.

"He was right about the Series X specs so he must be right about the PS5 specs he mentioned"

That's not how this works.

anexanhume · Mar 16, 2020

napata said:
Screen space means it's not raytraced. I think they're just talking about SSGI: https://docs.unrealengine.com/en-US...dows/ScreenSpaceGlobalIllumination/index.html

Probably. Screen-space means no rays from non-visible surfaces, even if the objects that contain those non-visible surfaces are in-frame.

modiz · Mar 16, 2020

napata said:
Screen space means it's not raytraced. I think they're just talking about SSGI: https://docs.unrealengine.com/en-US...dows/ScreenSpaceGlobalIllumination/index.html

Ah, thanks for the clarification, yea i guess i misunderstood and thought it was supposed to be RT and got confused by the mention of screen space, that explains it.

patapon · Mar 16, 2020

Nayeon said:
Nothing of value was lost. All we lost are people who refused to acknowledge hat Github is completely wrong. I mean, look at Xbox, nothing of it was true yet they somehow thought it's still spot on for PS5. All they did was project their console bias. I'm glad these people are gone. Finally we can have a civilized discussion and not have that pendulum swing from 7 to 13 TF on a daily basis. Hell, we got to number below XOX at some point last week. Truly, this thread has become so much better ever since.

Thank you.

gundamkyoukai · Mar 16, 2020

wowbaggerBR said:
It's probably a lucky guess. It would be different if he had said anything about the difference in memmory bandwidth. That would be unusual and all the sofa engineers posing as specialists would have laughed at.

He gave some other info about the difference between the system but there were not as precise .
Like saying PS5 SSD is twice as fast so we will see what happens.

thuway · Mar 16, 2020

Pryme said:
"He was right about the Series X specs so he must be right about the PS5 specs he mentioned"

That's not how this works.

We shall see bro. The monster will land 🐐

henhowc · Mar 16, 2020

If you had a choice, would you choose 9.2 Tflop Fall Release or 10Tflop 2021 Q1? ;)

ManOfWar · Mar 16, 2020

gundamkyoukai said:
He gave some other info about the difference between the system but there were not as precise .
Like saying PS5 SSD is twice as fast so we will see what happens.

Yeah, I remember that. I'm not bashing the guy, I'm just skeptical, specially after the DS5 fiasco.

Doctor Avatar · Mar 16, 2020

Pryme said:
"He was right about the Series X specs so he must be right about the PS5 specs he mentioned"

That's not how this works.

So you think if someone claims to know the PS5 and XSX specs, and proves to be completely and utterly spot on about XSX it doesn't increase the likelihood the PS5 specs are also accurate?

Pryme · Mar 16, 2020

thuway said:
We shall see bro. The monster will land 🐐

Eh, it would certainly be cool if you're right. I'm about to pick up a 65 inch Oled C9 so I need powerful stuff to justify my investment

Deleted member 52190 · Mar 16, 2020

Nayeon said:
Nothing of value was lost. All we lost are people who refused to acknowledge hat Github is completely wrong. I mean, look at Xbox, nothing of it was true yet they somehow thought it's still spot on for PS5. All they did was project their console bias. I'm glad these people are gone. Finally we can have a civilized discussion and not have that pendulum swing from 7 to 13 TF on a daily basis. Hell, we got to number below XOX at some point last week. Truly, this thread has become so much better ever since.

Yap.

Coulnt agree more.

thuway · Mar 16, 2020

Doctor Avatar said:
So you think if someone claims to know the PS5 and XSX specs, and proves to be completely and utterly spot on about XSX it doesn't increase the likelihood the PS5 specs are also accurate?

👏👏👏

gundamkyoukai · Mar 16, 2020

wowbaggerBR said:
Yeah, I remember that. I'm not bashing the guy, I'm just skeptical, specially after the DS5 fiasco.

For sure i still sceptical but man if that was a guess that was a damn good one.
Even more so when you look at what people in the old thread and online were saying .

Deleted member 45460 · Mar 16, 2020

So the PS5 has a lower BoM but is also more powerful in the GPU and has a better SSD, and somehow keeps that all cool in a slimmer form factor with higher cooling cost? (while still being a cheaper BoM through every party of it being better) Sounds great!

Bad_Boy · Mar 16, 2020

Almost willing to avatar bet we dont get a ps5 till march 2021. Never thought id be on that train of thought but this corona shit is fucking

henhowc said:
If you had a choice, would you choose 9.2 Tflop Fall Release or 10Tflop 2021 Q1? ;)

14TF Q3 2021

dobahking91 · Mar 16, 2020

gundamkyoukai said:
He gave some other info about the difference between the system but there were not as precise .
Like saying PS5 SSD is twice as fast so we will see what happens.

He said this...we shall see lol

GPU: PS5>SeX ~10%
RayTracing Accelerators: PS5>X1 (PS5's RT works by using acceleration structures and algorithms much like nVidia's RTX cores)
CPU: Sex>PS5 ~ 6%
Memory: PS5>Sex for the size and bandwidth
SSD: PS5>Sex ~ Over twice as fast (this is the biggest and most noticable difference)

Betelgeuse · Mar 16, 2020

doncabesa said:
So the PS5 has a lower BoM but is also more powerful in the GPU and has a better SSD, and somehow keeps that all cool in a slimmer form factor with higher cooling cost? (while still being a cheaper BoM through every party of it being better) Sounds great!

The threads have been split. It's time to let it go.

patapon · Mar 16, 2020

dobahking91 said:
He said this....we shall see lol

Man, if all this turns out to be true LOL.

modiz · Mar 16, 2020

dont get your hopes too high up for tommy fisher, i still dont completely trust him, its clear he knew the xbox specifications no doubt in my mind, but he got quite a few details on PS5/sony wrong so far (playstation meeting in february, sony having already acquired remedy). Keep that rumor in the back of your head but just remember that a lot can still happen, i really want to believe 13.3TF, just make sure to not be disappointed if it turns out to be less.

darkside · Mar 16, 2020

doncabesa said:
So the PS5 has a lower BoM but is also more powerful in the GPU and has a better SSD, and somehow keeps that all cool in a slimmer form factor with higher cooling cost? (while still being a cheaper BoM through every party of it being better) Sounds great!

I mean... isn't that exactly how the PS4 played out?

modiz said:
dont get your hopes too high up for tommy fisher, i still dont completely trust him, its clear he knew the xbox specifications no doubt in my mind, but he got quite a few details on PS5/sony wrong so far (playstation meeting in february, sony having already acquired remedy). Keep that rumor in the back of your head but just remember that a lot can still happen, i really want to believe 13.3TF, just make sure to not be disappointed if it turns out to be less.

Folks seem to be attaching themselves to that one specific old reddit post that got like -every- studio acquisition wrong so who knows.

It's best to wait. A while.

Pryme · Mar 16, 2020

Doctor Avatar said:
So you think if someone claims to know the PS5 and XSX specs, and proves to be completely and utterly spot on about XSX it doesn't increase the likelihood the PS5 specs are also accurate?

Of course it does. Still worth acknowledging that there are no guarantees that it's factual info

I prefer to deal with data points, and I agree that most of the available data points to performance numbers exceeding the GitHub rumors.

Deleted member 45460 · Mar 16, 2020

Betelgeuse said:
The threads have been split. It's time to let it go.

Well I'm talking about the PS5, a system I plan on purchasing.

darkside said:
I mean... isn't that exactly how the PS4 played out?

I don't see MS putting a kinect 3.0 in each series x this time.

Deleted member 30077 · Mar 16, 2020

anexanhume said:
Probably. Screen-space means no rays from non-visible surfaces, even if the objects that contain those non-visible surfaces are in-frame.

modiz said:
Ah, thanks for the clarification, yea i guess i misunderstood and thought it was supposed to be RT and got confused by the mention of screen space, that explains it.

They mention raytracing so It's confusing which is probably the intention. Raytracing is the new buzzword after all.

Maybe they used raytracing to get a more accurate rasterized end result? It's not the first time devs have been very vague about this. I think it was the Gears 5 devs as well who mentioned they were using "raytraced" shadows when the game launched.

Jayembi · Mar 16, 2020

Nayeon said:
Nothing of value was lost. All we lost are people who refused to acknowledge hat Github is completely wrong. I mean, look at Xbox, nothing of it was true yet they somehow thought it's still spot on for PS5. All they did was project their console bias. I'm glad these people are gone. Finally we can have a civilized discussion and not have that pendulum swing from 7 to 13 TF on a daily basis. Hell, we got to number below XOX at some point last week. Truly, this thread has become so much better ever since.

+1

Pryme · Mar 16, 2020

darkside said:
I mean... isn't that exactly how the PS4 played out?

No expensive eSRAM or Kinect this cycle, I'm afraid.

The PS4 Pro didn't play out this way.

dobahking91 · Mar 16, 2020

Yeah I think we should keep expectations in check and honestly anything above 10 TF is great heck even 9.

Tommy nailing XSX specs doesn"t confirm everything he said (yet) .

Toriko · Mar 16, 2020

Pryme said:
No expensive eSRAM or Kinect this cycle, I'm afraid.

The PS4 Pro didn't play out this way.

The PS4 pro launched a year earlier at a 100 dollar less. Not an apt comparison is it?

Radium217 · Mar 16, 2020

Cerny playing with us, bout to drop that 13 tf deal on us real good. I think the only thing that would make me consider X is the combination of an insane lineup and a single digit Sony Pony. The X reveal didn't wow me at all and I'm not sure why. Maybe it's cause I have no baseline to compare it to rn. Like yeah it's powerful... But what is power.

gundamkyoukai · Mar 16, 2020

doncabesa said:
So the PS5 has a lower BoM but is also more powerful in the GPU and has a better SSD, and somehow keeps that all cool in a slimmer form factor with higher cooling cost? (while still being a cheaper BoM through every party of it being better) Sounds great!

We don't know the PS5 BOM number .
Zhuge said he hear they close but the range he gave was big.
Also if we go by there SSD patent them having better SSD was not only about speed but also keeping the price down .
We also don't know the form factor .

Simon-chan · Mar 16, 2020

Guys, Tommy Fisher also said that Sony acquired Remedy and that Microsoft acquired Techland.
And this was two months ago.
As far as we know it's not true (Remedy is a public company).
Plus, Klee said that he was full of crap, so you can either believe one or the other, but not both.
Sadly I can't search for that specific post because he's banned, so don't ask me to find it.
But I'm positive it happened.

Pryme · Mar 16, 2020

Toriko said:
The PS4 pro launched a year earlier at a 100 dollar less. Not an apt comparison is it?

The $100 difference more than shows. 1.8tf incremental GPU power, 4gb additional RAM, 4k UHD drive.
That's the point.

Expy · Mar 16, 2020

modiz said:
dont get your hopes too high up for tommy fisher, i still dont completely trust him, its clear he knew the xbox specifications no doubt in my mind, but he got quite a few details on PS5/sony wrong so far (playstation meeting in february, sony having already acquired remedy). Keep that rumor in the back of your head but just remember that a lot can still happen, i really want to believe 13.3TF, just make sure to not be disappointed if it turns out to be less.

Just gotta go with what we've heard the most... (from journalists, past and present, who we know their real identities and names)

They're both extremely close, almost twins (Klee, Schreier, Matt)
Both targeting over Stadia TF (10.7) (Schreier)
Devs knew about 12TF Xbox before E3 last year
Reiner's source had PS5 more powerful at E3
Jason Schreier said they're around RTX 2080 performance
Klee's source had PS5 more powerful, and that didn't change after the reveal of XSX
Another named journalist also heard PS5 was more powerful (easy to find this guy, just banned from discussion here)

Way too much smoke leading to the same fire here. Whether it's 12, 12.4, or 13.3TF, PS5 is going to be a beastly machine.

Jayembi · Mar 16, 2020

Pryme said:
No expensive eSRAM or Kinect this cycle, I'm afraid.

The PS4 Pro didn't play out this way.

The PS4 Pro was released a year earlier and at 100 usd less. You lack a little context, don't you think?

Deleted member 61469 · Mar 16, 2020

dobahking91 said:
He said this...we shall see lol

This doesn't line up with what Klee wrote nor does it line up with the bom estimation from zhugex.

Elios83 · Mar 16, 2020

Nayeon said:
Nothing of value was lost. All we lost are people who refused to acknowledge hat Github is completely wrong. I mean, look at Xbox, nothing of it was true yet they somehow thought it's still spot on for PS5. All they did was project their console bias. I'm glad these people are gone. Finally we can have a civilized discussion and not have that pendulum swing from 7 to 13 TF on a daily basis. Hell, we got to number below XOX at some point last week. Truly, this thread has become so much better ever since.

It's honestly better to have dedicated threads where people can actually speculate or talk about what they're actually interested about, the github nonsense monopolized the discussion for too long, it was just the same people wanting to believe to the 9.2 vs 12 fiction no matter what and not accepting any other possibility for console wars reasons.
First the 2019 launch and the outdated GPU design, then the no ray tracing/non amd ray tracing fiction, then the RDNA1 vs RDNA2 debacle, then the huge 400mm2 xbox die which turned out to be 360mm2 and today the icing on the cake even the CUs figure for XSX that was used as a mantra turned out to be wrong or misinterepreted.

Bad_Boy · Mar 16, 2020

So... any new news from Sony today?
Cause I see Microsoft dropping sample platters for us hungry peasants today.

Can we get a crumb Sony?

PS5 Speculation |OT12| - Aw hell, Transistor's running this again?

How hyped are you?

A little hyped

A lot of hyped

WALNUUUUUTSSSSS

Hyped enough to eat this whole bag of walnuts

Hyped enough to bite this moose

Hyped enough to scramble a dozen eggs

Hyped enough to be even more hyped, like, cyclical or something

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