PS5 Speculation |OT12| - Aw hell, Transistor's running this again?

[Doctor Avatar]

You don't understand. I had my bet. I do not bet twice on the same thing.

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If it took 56CU to get XSX >10TF PS5 has absolutely no chance with 36CU it would need to be clocked 2.175+Ghz to touch 10TF, and that ain't happening.

You're totally, definitely, absolutely safe to take a PS5 over/under 10TF bet.

You should do it. Heck I'll join in on it so you can take multiple avatars. Because I'm feeling so generous. ;)

 

[isahn]

Sony are going to announce and not say shit about the teraflops, aren't they? Make everyone lose their minds.

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no TF, but they'll present PS5 as the world's most powerful next-gen console.
Era will die in peace

 

[Andromeda]

By the way, III-V

8.5TF PS4 CONFIRMED!

And once again the thread is back with a 8TF PS5.

Next Gen OTs: "8TF PS5 is inevitable"

Me:

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I am 99% sure it has 36CU active

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He is not 100% sure though.

 

[gofreak]

I was going through their GDC 2018 presentation and found the ray tracing budget, but nothing on the gameplay-related GPGPU (liquids simulation and deformation simulation) frame budget. Can you point me at the right direction?

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The dev's twitter feed had a thread on it: https://twitter.com/SebAaltonen/status/1141822576479604737?s=20 His twitter is an excellent one to follow btw.

I totally agree that Switch is an extreme example and that's not going to be a viable workflow for Lockheart. But you will probably also agree that Lockheart isn't Switch, cases like Claybook are insanely rare and the new CPUs will probably make them even rarer.

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I would tend to agree, but I wouldn't be absolute about it... which I guess is where I come from in all these debates, and perhaps where some devs are coming from also. Forecasting future trends is difficult. Hewing too closely to the current gen's technical trends as a guide to the future was arguably one of the original XB1's failings, for example (the memory hierarchy was initially defended as 'ok' in the context of 'the same but more', of the previous gen's usage patterns... but turned out to be very ill-suited to the shift in techniques that devs wanted to pursue). Now, by no means am I saying Lockhart is in the same situation, or that history would repeat here, but I think it's just one caution on crystal-ball-gazing too confidently too early, and building too many usage assumptions into your hardware based on current/past trends. Some devs who are minded toward generalisation or experimentation might have suspicion about hardware (or hardware strategies) that do that, and maybe I'm sympathetic to that. Probably in most cases those assumptions are fine, though, don't get me wrong. Next-gen will be 'fine' with or without Lockhart, I've always said that, even if I'm not a massive fan of it.

 

[DrDeckard]

So we are all pretty confident that the ps5 is 54 cu and probs hitting around 12.5 tflops? Or is it more?

so we are looking at a 499 to 599 ps5 and over 12tf. Next Gen gonna be dope.

i don't think they need to worry about manufacturing because at 499 to 599 demand won't be AS high but they will still sell out of launch allocation. Both consoles will do well at first.

 

[thuway]

So we are all pretty confident that the ps5 is 54 cu and probs hitting around 12.5 tflops? Or is it more?

so we are looking at a 499 to 599 ps5 and over 12tf. Next Gen gonna be dope.

i don't think they need to worry about manufacturing because at 499 to 599 demand won't be AS high but they will still sell out of launch allocation. Both consoles will do well at first.

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We aren't confident of any thing. We are all guessing and have multiple theories.

 

[VX1]

So we are all pretty confident that the ps5 is 54 cu and probs hitting around 12.5 tflops?

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No,not at all.

Personally ,i'd be shocked if it is anything else then 36/40 CU design.

 

[Astandahl]

So we are all pretty confident that the ps5 is 54 cu and probs hitting around 12.5 tflops? Or is it more?

so we are looking at a 499 to 599 ps5 and over 12tf. Next Gen gonna be dope.

i don't think they need to worry about manufacturing because at 499 to 599 demand won't be AS high but they will still sell out of launch allocation. Both consoles will do well at first.

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No PS5 will be 8TF at best but 599 US dollars due to supply chain issues which affected Sony only.

 

[sleepr]

No,not at all.

Personally ,i'd be shocked if it is anything else then 36/40 CU design.

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Prepare to be shocked then.

 

[thuway]

No,not at all.

Personally ,i'd be shocked if it is anything else then 36/40 CU design.

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Wanna take an avatar bet :)? 😉

 

[Deleted member 52190]

No,not at all.

Personally ,i'd be shocked if it is anything else then 36/40 CU design.

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You already got shocked enough times already, at this point im ready for anything.

 

[Pharaoh]

Avatar bets are so lame, no stakes at all. Are we allowed to bet, let's say, whoever loses has to do a PS5 giveaway?

 

[John Frost]

No PS5 will be 8TF at best but 599 US dollars due to supply chain issues which affected Sony only.

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That won't age well, unless /s

 

[JamRock7]

Avatar bets are so lame, no stakes at all. Are we allowed to bet, let's say, whoever loses has to do a PS5 giveaway?

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That escalated quickly.. what about a game?

 

[Pharaoh]

That escalated quickly.. what about a game?

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Still low stakes. Some people here are so sure Github leak represents final hardware, it should be a no-brainer. Easy win.

 

[UraMallas]

All good points, but the counter to this reasoning is who the hell is going to wait to play one of, if not, the most anticipated games this generation (and likely have it spoiled in the meantime). A PS5 version is unlikely at launch, you're looking at a years wait.

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I will be waiting on all the major games this year besides Ori, actually.

TLoU2, GoT, and FFVII will all be games I wait for enhanced versions of. If they don't come at launch, which they should and for free, I guess I'll be waiting a long time. I'm definitely waiting for Cyberpunk 2077 for launch of Series X. I'm glad that one is already confirmed. If FFVII doesn't have a free enhanced version at launch of PS5, I'll be waiting for the Series X version to hit.

 

[Gdourado]

With all the hype of next gen, I have been reviewing some history and going back to previous gens because my memory is not that great. :)
Some things that caught my eye and I don't know if it is accurate...
On current gen, I read that the power difference was only known after launch and after PS4 and Xbox one were in customers hands.
I read that only when consoles where already in the market, some comparisons started to appear and the whole PS4 is more powerful appeared.

if this is true, wasn't there this whole Tflop talk last gen before the launch?

Also, Xbox 360 came to market 1 year earlier than ps3.
PS3 was stupidly expensive, had worst third party ports and yet, by the end of the Gen, ps3 managed to outsell Xbox 360.
That is impressive!

my final point is that it outsold Xbox 360 but just marginally, which means that going to next gen, Xbox and PlayStation has very similar install bases in numbers.
Yet, PS4 pulled way ahead. that means install base does not warrant victory.

let's see how this next gen plays out, but with the lack of news, I have been having fun rementthe ancient history.

 

[BradleyLove]

Certainly wouldn't use the word hype, nor base anything on the Era bubble.

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The thirst is only there on forums online and just so we can start comparing with what MS has announced. It's not a thirst necessarily for PS5 necessarily. We just all want to know what both have came up with and what to expect. I'm thirsty for PS5 news myself But just to see by how much MS has retaken the lead power wise! ;p

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I dunno. Every single Facebook post by PlayStation has follower comments asking about PS5. Its not just forums anymore

 

[PowerThroughLov]

With all the hype of next gen, I have been reviewing some history and going back to previous gens because my memory is not that great. :)
Some things that caught my eye and I don't know if it is accurate...
On current gen, I read that the power difference was only known after launch and after PS4 and Xbox one were in customers hands.
I read that only when consoles where already in the market, some comparisons started to appear and the whole PS4 is more powerful appeared.

if this is true, wasn't there this whole Tflop talk last gen before the launch?

Also, Xbox 360 came to market 1 year earlier than ps3.
PS3 was stupidly expensive, had worst third party ports and yet, by the end of the Gen, ps3 managed to outsell Xbox 360.
That is impressive!

my final point is that it outsold Xbox 360 but just marginally, which means that going to next gen, Xbox and PlayStation has very similar install bases in numbers.
Yet, PS4 pulled way ahead. that means install base does not warrant victory.

let's see how this next gen plays out, but with the lack of news, I have been having fun rementthe ancient history.

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The PS3 was not close to the Xbox in the US though. The PS3 ended up doing just fine, but in "the west" it really was Xbox that won that generation. Sony just has the rest of the world to itself pretty much.

 

[renx]

At this point I'm starting to believe that PS5 might really be a 36CU sku, with a PS5 Pro to be released a couple of years later.
Since that Spiderman @SSD video, then the Wired article, up to the recent Jim Ryan's little speech, it all sounds like "features and innovation are more important than raw GPU power".

 

[EvilBoris]

At this point I'm starting to believe that PS5 might really be a 36CU sku, with a PS5 Pro to be released a couple of years later.
Since that Spiderman @SSD video, then the Wired article, up to the recent Jim Ryan's little speech, it all sounds like "features and innovation are more important than raw GPU power".

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They talked about wanting to move people to PS5 as fast as possible, what if that is by keeping the price really low?

 

[Sekiro]

No PS5 will be 8TF at best but 599 US dollars due to supply chain issues which affected Sony only.

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This is the most realistic scenario based on recent events.

Spoiler

/s

 

[renx]

They talked about wanting to move people to PS5 as fast as possible, what if that is by keeping the price really low?

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Right, that also makes the 36cu theory feasible.

 

[Adookah]

IMO it's ridiculous to think that the PS5 has the same number of CU's as the PS4 Pro. The Pro was released in 2016 on a 16nm process. And now 4 years later they are going to do same thing on a 7nm process? Just does not make any sense.

 

[PJV3]

I don't really care about github, but as i'm more interested in the PSVR2 stuff i really hope they push the power envelope, Sony hopefully learnt from this gen that the tech is moving and evolving too fast to go cheap.

 

[Ashen one]

So what is the theory on BC for those 2 scenarios?

36CU variant: Disable 1SE + change clocks for PS4, and just different clocks for PS4Pro? This sounds very wierd. I cannot believe this could be real.

48/52CU variant: I am just lost here....doesn't we know they arent doing BC with SW? So how? My bet would be a separate chip like they did for PS1 BC on PS2, but please endulge me. This feels more true then 36CU tho, Im either on this or a 3SE variant until we know more. (12-13.8TF between them)

//Edit i made a typo and typed 54 but i meant something like 2SE 52 total 4 disabled for 48CU active which is also a scenario i dont get.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

They talked about wanting to move people to PS5 as fast as possible, what if that is by keeping the price really low?

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They also talk about it being a premium product and it for the hardcore .
When it come to moving people as fast as possible a lower price is one of many factors .

 

[Miniature Kaiju]

54CU variant: I am just lost here....doesn't we know they arent doing BC with SW?

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We don't know that, no.

So how? My bet would be a separate chip like they did for PS1 BC on PS2, but please endulge me.

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54CUs as 3SEs, each one with 18CUs. One enabled for PS4, two for PS4Pro and all of them for PS5. Note that isn't the only way to get the right number of CUs. Can also be done with 2SEs but with 6 SAs, assuming one can disable an entire SA (and since going through some Navi Vulkan documentation, I'm very inclined to believe it to be the case). That could lead to either 52, 56 or 60 CUs.

 

[modiz]

So what is the theory on BC for those 2 scenarios?

36CU variant: Disable 1SE for PS4 and just different clocks for PS4Pro? This sounds very wierd. I cannot believe this could be real.

54CU variant: I am just lost here....doesn't we know they arent doing BC with SW? So how? My bet would be a separate chip like they did for PS1 BC on PS2, but please endulge me.

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The idea with a 54CU variant is having 3SEs, disable 1 SE and you get PS4 Pro mode, disable 2 and you get PS4 mode.
Also no reason for separate chip when the architecture is still x86, that's just a crazy money sink.

 

[renx]

IMO it's ridiculous to think that the PS5 has the same number of CU's as the PS4 Pro. The Pro was released in 2016 on a 16nm process. And now 4 years later they are going to do same thing on a 7nm process? Just does not make any sense.

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I hope it's not 36CUs. If that's the case, I'll forget about PS exclusives and pick the Xbox.
They are owning more studios now, and will have their own console exclusives anyway.
I'd consider the Xbox more future-proof, and they will likely have the best multi platform versions.

 

[thuway]

So what is the theory on BC for those 2 scenarios?

36CU variant: Disable 1SE for PS4 and just different clocks for PS4Pro? This sounds very wierd. I cannot believe this could be real.

54CU variant: I am just lost here....doesn't we know they arent doing BC with SW? So how? My bet would be a separate chip like they did for PS1 BC on PS2, but please endulge me. This feels more true then 36CU tho, Im either on this or a 3SE variant until we know more.

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The theory behind 54 CU goes like this.


1. PS5 has three Shader Engines.
2. Each Shader engine has 20 CU. Making the total active chip 54 CU with 6 disabled.
3. 1 Shader Engine is disabled for PS4 Pro , 2 Shader Engines are disabled for PS4.
4. In backwards compatibility mode, the GPU can clock up to 2ghz for 36 CUs for boost mode.

This is my read on Github.

 

[12Danny123]

So what is the theory on BC for those 2 scenarios?

36CU variant: Disable 1SE + change clocks for PS4, and just different clocks for PS4Pro? This sounds very wierd. I cannot believe this could be real.

54CU variant: I am just lost here....doesn't we know they arent doing BC with SW? So how? My bet would be a separate chip like they did for PS1 BC on PS2, but please endulge me. This feels more true then 36CU tho, Im either on this or a 3SE variant until we know more. (12-13.8TF between them)

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36CU version with down clocking the console to match PS4 Pro and PS4 specs is a lot more realistic than adding seperate chips.

 

[Ashen one]

Lol i typed wrong, i meant anything over 36 but under 54 i have no idea how to do BC. 54=3x18 yes.

 

[Kibbles]

By the way, III-V

8.5TF PS4 CONFIRMED!

And once again the thread is back with a 8TF PS5.

Next Gen OTs: "8TF PS5 is inevitable"

Me:

Click to shrink...

If it's 8 I can't see Sony revealing TF numbers. Though they didn't for the Pro either so maybe never was in the plan to.

 

[thuway]

If it's 8 I can't see Sony revealing TF numbers. Though they didn't for the Pro either so maybe never was in the plan to.

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Lol

 

[Midas]

Sony are going to announce and not say shit about the teraflops, aren't they? Make everyone lose their minds.

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Very likely. If they're at 9 TF - they probably won't mention anything about those kind of specs. If they're closer to Microsoft they probably mention it. But 9 vs 12 looks like a big difference.

 

[JasoNsider]

I think it's kinda funny some people are worried they won't show teraflops at the PS5 reveal. If they have Horizon 2 and a demo of The Last of Us 2 running on the PS5 looking jaw-dropping then why would they need to? The entire point of the specs is pave the way for amazing games that inspire us. If anything, showing amazing looking games without tech numbers would still be better than all of the Xbox Series X reveals to date. In the end, it's all about the games. The specs are just there to serve them.

I remember back in the run up to GameCube and PS2 days we were endlessly debating specs, but once the amazing games showed up it made the debates seem really silly.

 

[Evolved1]

It's 8 now.

I cannot.

 

[Miniature Kaiju]

It's 8 now.

I cannot.

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Hang around for a while and it will either swing back to 12+ or go down to 6. Probably both.

 

[Deleted member 135]

Its completely looney to think that the PS5 is 36CU. Like patently insane and so obviously wrong it's not even funny at this point and inhale to side-eye people who keep insisting that it is true.

The github was clearly BC testing. PS5 will be between 11 and 14tf... probably with 54CUs.

 

[thuway]

I think it's kinda funny some people are worried they won't show teraflops at the PS5 reveal. If they have Horizon 2 and a demo of The Last of Us 2 running on the PS5 looking jaw-dropping then why would they need to? The entire point of the specs is pave the way for amazing games that inspire us. If anything, showing amazing looking games without tech numbers would still be better than all of the Xbox Series X reveals to date. In the end, it's all about the games. The specs are just there to serve them.

I remember back in the run up to GameCube and PS2 days we were endlessly debating specs, but once the amazing games showed up it made the debates seem really silly.

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This is true but this is a technical specs thread. Also a large portion of each platforms library will be shared so people want the most powerful version.

 

[Andromeda]

The theory behind 54 CU goes like this.


1. PS5 has three Shader Engines.
2. Each Shader engine has 20 CU. Making the total active chip 54 CU with 6 disabled.
3. 1 Shader Engine is disabled for PS4 Pro , 2 Shader Engines are disabled for PS4.
4. In backwards compatibility mode, the GPU can clock up to 2ghz for 36 CUs for boost mode.

This is my read on Github.

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We actually know they can access each Workgroup processors individually. There is no need for that 54 CU / 3 SE theory. They can have any additional WGP they want and still access the others 9 / 18 WGP for the BC functions.

 

[RedHeat]

It's 8 now.

I cannot.

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It's mainly just coming from that Randy RP'er on Twitter, and basically has no credence as far as I can tell

 

[thuway]

We actually know they can access each Workgroup processors individually. There is no need for that 54 CU / 3 SE theory. They can have any additional WGP they want and still access the others 9 / 18 WGP for the BC functions.

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That's even better than. That means we can go as low as 48 CU running at 2ghz to get 12.2 TF.

 

[JasoNsider]

This is true but this is a technical specs thread. Also a large portion of each platforms library will be shared so people want the most powerful version.

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Correct me if I'm wrong, but it's not explicitly a specs thread. It revolves around specs when there's nothing else to discuss. When the games are revealed we'll be talking about them.

 

[Ashen one]

36CU version with down clocking the console to match PS4 Pro and PS4 specs is a lot more realistic than adding seperate chips.

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If it realy is 36 then yes there is no need for anything else, i just dont believe this can be it.

I made a typo and meant a variant not dividable by 18 like for instance 48 (2SE 52 total, 2 disabled). How would you do BC here without a separate chip?

 

[Expy]

It's 8 now.

I cannot.

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lol.

It's ridiculous isn't it?

 

[disco_potato]

So this is an EUV process that is compatible with the N7 DUV process?

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Yes, but if you look at TSMC's road map, N6 comes after N5.

 

[PJV3]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it's not explicitly a specs thread. It revolves around specs when there's nothing else to discuss. When the games are revealed we'll be talking about them.

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Yeah, i don't really care about the gubbins of the machines, i will be happy with a showreel of games and UI features etc.

 

[Patent]

lol.

It's ridiculous isn't it?

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You dont think we can trust a guy tagging timdog?